The effects and reacts of COVID-19 pandemic and international oil price on energy, economy, and environment in China

Markov chain-based impact analysis of the pandemic Covid-19 outbreak on global primary energy consumption mix

The historic evolution of global primary energy consumption (GPEC) mix, comprising of fossil (liquid petroleum, gaseous and coal fuels) and non-fossil (nuclear, hydro and other renewables) energy sources while highlighting the impact of the novel corona virus 2019 pandemic outbreak, has been examined through this study. GPEC data of 2005-2021 has been taken from the annually published reports by British Petroleum. The equilibrium state, a property of the classical predictive modeling based on Markov chain, is employed as an investigative tool. The pandemic outbreak has proved to be a blessing in disguise for global energy sector through, at least temporarily, reducing the burden on environment in terms of reducing demand for fossil energy sources. Some significant long term impacts of the pandemic occurred in second and third years (2021 and 2022) after its outbreak in 2019 rather than in first year (2020) like the penetration of other energy sources along with hydro and renewable ones in GPEC. Novelty of this research lies within the application of the equilibrium state feature of compositional Markov chain based prediction upon GPEC mix. The analysis into the past trends suggests the advancement towards a better global energy future comprising of cleaner fossil resources (mainly natural gas), along with nuclear, hydro and renewable ones in the long run.

Research on industrial structure adjustment and spillover effect in resource-based regions in the post-pandemic era

Resource-based regions support national economic development and are essential sources of basic energy and raw materials. In the post-pandemic era, however, there are practical situations to deal with, such as a fractured industrial chain, a weaker industrial structure, and a sharp reduction in economic benefits. Based on data collected from 68 cities in China, from 2010 to 2021, with 816 observations, this paper explores the industrial development process of resource-based regions in China and the change in the toughness of the industrial structure under the impact of COVID-19. The paper studies and analyzes industrial development trends, industrial structure toughness, and spatial spillover effects. The methods used are the Markov chain model and the Industrial Structure Advancement Index. By building the spatial Dubin model, the paper analyzes the spatial spillover effect of regional industrial development. It decomposes the spillover effect using the partial differential model based on regression. The results show that, during the study period, the comprehensive development level of industries in resource-based regions in China was slowly improving and tended to stabilize after entering the post-pandemic era. The evolution of an advanced industrial structure is significantly heterogeneous among regions, and each region has different toughness. The impact of COVID-19 has reduced the toughness of China's resource-based regions' industrial structure. The spatial spillover effect of regional industrial development is significant. Labor force, technology input, and industrial-structure optimization have different impacts on the industrial development of neighboring regions. In the post-pandemic era, China has used new management methods for more innovation. In order to achieve low-carbon, environmental protection, and sustainable development of resources, realize the rapid recovery of the toughness of industrial structure in China's resource-based cities, and reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, China proposes to expand the supply of resources, improve the allocation of resources, optimize the direction, promote the rational flow and efficient aggregation of various factors, and enhance the impetus for innovation and development.

Depression and Anxiety Symptoms and Their Associated Factors Among Chinese Residents After the Lifting of the Dynamic Zero-COVID Policy: A Cross-Sectional Study

Purpose

China lifted its strict zero-Covid approach on December 7, 2022. This study aimed to investigate depression and anxiety symptoms and their associations among Chinese residents after the change in public policy.

Methods

A cross-sectional sample of 925 Chinese residents (726 females and 199 males) was recruited using convenience and snowball sampling approach between 16 and 25 December 2022. Participants completed online questionnaires on basic information, depression, anxiety, COVID-19 related perceptions, and protective behaviors change.

Results

Mild and moderate-to-severe depression symptoms were reported by 35.6% and 19.1% of participants, respectively. Nearly 40% of participants reported mild anxiety and 18.7% reported moderate-to-severe anxiety. Results from multinomial logistic regression analysis indicated that male gender, younger age, the presence of chronic disease, poorer self-rated mental health status, perceived impact, and worry were risk factors for both depression and anxiety, while higher education and protective behaviors change were protective factors. Besides, living with or caring for children (4-6 years), family members or other housemates currently with influenza-like symptoms, and perceived severity were also risk factors for depression.

Conclusion

Our findings provided initial evidence that Chinese residents may face heightened depression and anxiety during the early stage after the policy was released. Furthermore, we identified some vulnerable populations in need of prioritizing mental health assistance and some potentially modifiable factors associated with depression and anxiety, which provides an important guide for developing timely and effective psychological interventions and preparing for future pandemics.

Increased ground-level O3 during the COVID-19 pandemic in China aggravates human health risks but has little effect on winter wheat yield

In January 2020, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak emerged in China, prompting the enforcement of stringent lockdown measures nationwide to contain its spread. Multiple studies have demonstrated that these measures successfully reduced the levels of air pollutants except for ozone (O3). However, the potential risks of nationwide O3 changes during this period remain uncertain. To address this gap, we evaluated the ecological and health effects of O3 using hourly O3 data from 1 January to 17 June in both 2020 and 2019. Our results indicated that all health and ecological indicators, except SUM06 (sum of all hourly O3 over 60 ppb), during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 increased most obviously in Stages 2 and 3 with the strictest control measures, compared to the same period in 2019. The national premature deaths due to short-term O3 exposure during Stages 2-3 in 2020 totaled 146,558 (95% CI: 79,386-213,730) for all non-accidental causes and 82,408 (95% CI: 30,522-134,295) for cardiovascular diseases, increasing by 18.78% and 18.76% in 2019, respectively. The most significant increase in health risks occurred in Hubei, followed by Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Hunan, and Shaanxi. In addition, the estimated national winter wheat production losses (WWPL) attributable to O3 amounted to 50.6 and 51.1 million metric tons for 2019 and 2020, respectively. Among the major winter wheat-producing provinces, Anhui and Jiangsu experienced a larger increase in WWPL, while Shandong and Hebei suffered a greater decrease in 2020 compared to 2019, resulting in little overall change in WWPL between the two years. These findings provided direct evidence of the harmful effects of O3 during the COVID-19 pandemic and serve as a valuable reference for future air pollution control.

The overseas background of Chinese returnee energy scientists

In an attempt to uncover the international affiliations impacting the Chinese energy sector, this study applies the method of Curriculum Vitae Analysis (CV Analysis) to explore the overseas background of Chinese returnee energy scientists. The investigation focuses on a representative group of scientists hailing from China's distinguished "985" project research universities. From the available online CVs, we gathered data and identified the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom as the primary host countries that facilitate the growth and learning of these energy scientists. We also noted a concurrent surge in scientists return to China after acquiring academic and professional experience in prestigious global universities. This study thereby illuminates the evolving patterns of Chinese energy scientists' global mobility and return migration.

Institutional quality, oil price, and environmental degradation in MENA countries moderated by economic complexity and shadow economy

This paper aims to analyze the link between environmental degradation and institutional quality and the price of oil moderated by economic complexity and the underground economy. We use quantile regressions with annual panel data for 15 countries in the Middle East and North Africa during 1995-2021. The findings indicate that institutional quality, economic complexity, and output positively and heterogeneously impact environmental degradation. However, the square of production has a negative impact, confirming an inverted U relationship between production and environmental degradation. Likewise, we find that the price of oil and the underground economy have a negative and heterogeneous impact on environmental degradation. Based on our results, a potential recommendation for policymakers is that the institutional framework of Middle Eastern and North African countries should be accompanied by a more significant concern for the environment instead of prioritizing extractive growth that is detrimental to the environment's environmental sustainability. Likewise, economic diversification will mitigate environmental degradation and improve formal employment. Our findings are relevant to policymakers and researchers interested in promoting ecological sustainability.

Relevance of oil price, military expenditure and exports to achieve the Saudi Arabian sustainable economic and environmental objectives: a non-linear ARDL approach

This study investigates the economic and environmental issues of Saudi Arabia, a net exporter of crude oil mainly relying on oil exports, which faces economic crises due to the decline in oil prices. For this purpose, we highlighted the main challenges of the Saudi economy, such as oil price shocks and a significant increase in military expenditures. The economic and environmental issues are vital for the country's development and sustainability. Saudi Arabia is a major exporter of fossil fuels, which threatens its long-term economic growth due to the global transition towards renewables. Also, heavy dependence on fossil fuels is deteriorating the environment as well. On account of this, we extended the Solow growth model by augmenting oil prices, military expenditure, and exports. Similarly, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach is used to find the long-term as well as the short-term nexus between variables. The study provides innovative findings regarding the country's role in oil price fluctuations, exports, and heavy military expenditures. In the short run, higher oil prices are increasing the economic process. In the long run, higher oil prices have a significant and negative impact. Military expenditure and exports have a significant and positive relationship with economic growth in the case of long-run analysis. For carbon emissions, the rise in oil prices helps reduce carbon emissions. In comparison, higher exports are also responsible for carbon emissions. The study proposes innovative and fruitful policies regarding the economic prosperity of Saudi Arabia, such as increasing the military expenditure to maintain peace in the region and increasing the exports of oil products, as well as non-oil products, to have shelter from oil price shocks.

Risk connectedness between crude oil, gold and exchange rates in China: Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic

This study examined the risk connectedness and its asymmetry between oil, gold, and foreign exchange under the realized volatility, spillover index framework, and high-frequency data during the COVID-19 pandemic. It was found that: (1) At the beginning of the pandemic outbreak, the total volatility spillover in the system declined, which may indicate that the pandemic cuts the trading activities in the financial markets by inhibiting personnel mobility, then, the spillover experienced a short-term sharp rise due to panic. (2) The exchange rate had a significant risk connectedness with gold and international crude oil, but a restrict connectedness with domestic crude oil after the outbreak. These variations of risk transmission caused by the pandemic emerged later than the outbreak, reflecting a certain lag. (3) The impact of the pandemic on the asymmetric risk connectedness between oil, gold and the exchange rate was limited, and the risk transfer resulting from bad news was dominant during the sample period; however, gold was less affected by bad news than the oil and exchange rates. These findings suggested that the establishment of Chinese crude oil futures could restrain volatility spillovers from the exchange rate; the foreign exchange reserve structure should be optimized. Gold has been proved to have a hedging function with the crude oil, and its proportion in foreign exchange reserves should be appropriately increased.

Role of climate fund raising under fiscal balance on climate change mitigation: an analysis from Pareto optimality

Since there is little progress being made in multinational climate discussions, climate finance is at a crossroads as lenders must come up with new plans for the "Future of Environment Funds." The mission of effectively and efficiently distributing money to support the shift to low-carbon, climate-resilient economies has been given to climate finance organizations. Due to its purpose to contribute to a paradigm shift, the Green Climate Fund (GCF) is anticipated to help the most vulnerable populations adapt to and mitigate climate change. This research alters the premise of the Baumol and Oates public externality model to make it more appropriate for global climate governance analysis. This research then deduces the special pricing conditions to persuade the market to comply with Pareto optimality criteria by contrasting the Pareto optimality model of global climate governance and the market equilibrium model. The rules and potential approaches that must be followed for raising capital and allocating GCFs are then determined by taking into account global Pareto optimality and fiscal balance. The study finds that when each country assumes that the GCF aims to achieve Pareto optimality in climate governance globally and its own fiscal balance, the equilibrium results of the international climate game will not achieve both the financial balance of the GCF and global Pareto optimality simultaneously. The GCF may successfully finance non-bankable components of bigger "almost bankable projects," according to our empirical analysis of the GCF portfolio structure and strategy in this research. This lends credence to an alternative interpretation of the GCF.

Does COVID-19 impact on financial markets of China-evidence from during and pre-COVID-19 outbreak

During the outbreak of COVID-19, concern significantly influenced our financial system. This new paper's primary assessment of the COVID-19 virus affects the world's major economies and financial markets. This paper utilizes an event analysis approach and a data model to investigate the influence of COVID-19 on the financial market system from three viewpoints: (1) supply chain finance and titles, (2) processing system, and (3) the financial system of the organization. According to data analysis, the model built in this work may properly depict the influence of COVID-19 on the financial market system. The results indicated that the low age coefficient (p-value (p 0.05)) and a higher blocking condition (p-value (p > 0.05)) impact city tourism market system with p-values of 0.002 and 0.004, respectively. Other results show the impact of the Chinese New Year vacations. Since then, the government has slowly stabilized its recovery, with many measures taken to limit the epidemic in February and a series of regulatory measures enacted to stabilize financial markets. These findings show a small but statistically significant degree of stabilization in international financial markets in response to stay-at-home government policies and social distancing measures, which is encouraging for political actors concerned about economic performance during the coronavirus 2019 pandemic response.

The market values of Chinese energy firms during COVID-19 pandemic

This paper studies the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on Chinese energy firms’ market values by using event study approach. First, we find that the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) of energy firms significantly decreases 2.7–10.6% on average due to the negative shock of COVID-19 on energy market. Second, we present that Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) performance could significantly reduce the negative market reaction of energy firms during COVID-19. Finally, in using the intervention policy of various cities as exogenous shocks, we provide evidence that stock returns of energy firms significantly increase after cities where firms located in issued lockdown policies.

The macro-economic and CO2 emissions impacts of COVID-19 and recovery policies in China

The outbreak and ongoing evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic have dramatically impacted economic development and CO₂ emissions. China is under simultaneous pressure to recover from the outbreak and meet its carbon reduction targets, and the government is endeavouring to stimulate economic recovery through fiscal and monetary policies. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to measure the impact on China's economic recovery and carbon emissions by incorporating the pandemic shock and related economic recovery policies of loan prime rate (LPR) and value-added tax (VAT) reduction. The study found that COVID-19 led to a simultaneous shock on China's supply and demand sides in which GDP dropped by 2.62% and carbon emissions fell by 2.53%, compared to the period prior to COVID-19. Although the LPR and VAT reduction effectively mitigated economic loss, the combined LPR and VAT reduction had a more substantial effect on boosting GDP than the single policies. The VAT cut expands production and was used to overcome supply-side shocks, while lowering LPR mitigates the damage of demand-side shocks. Compared to the VAT reduction policy, reduced LPR has smaller carbon emissions per unit of GDP output. Consequently, we recommend that the government concentrate on a combination of policies to navigate pandemic shocks, as the two economic stimulus policies are confirmed to complement one another in terms of strengths and shortcomings.

Green stocks, crypto asset, crude oil and COVID19 pandemic: Application of rolling window multiple correlation

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted almost all spares of global social, psychological, and economic life. The emergence of various variants and corresponding variations in daily infection asymmetrically influenced economic indicators. This study extends the existing literature by exploring the hedging potential of crude oil, carbon efficiency index of green firms, and bitcoin during this pandemic. This objective is realized by employing the recently advanced rolling window multiple correlation of Polanco-Martínez (2020). This approach is based on the new p-value corrected method, which has advantages over other correlation methods. The sample observations are based on daily data from 1/22/2020 to 12/20/2021. In the bivariate case, we find a significant positive correlation between COVID-19 and CEI, while a negative impact is observed between COVID-19 and WTI. Similarly, we observe a significant and nonlinear association between COVID-19 and BTC. However, our findings show positive and significant correlations among variables in the multivariate case. The overall findings show that CEI and BTC can be safe havens for investors during this worse pandemic. The study's robust findings can be used to derive important policy implications worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The influence and mechanism of health expenditures on investment of financial assets decisions: A case study of China's economy

Policymakers worldwide have been actively involved in the past few decades to ensure that human diseases are kept to a minimum. A new econometric technique, dynamic ARDL simulations, was used in this study to estimate and model the influence of health expenditures on investment in non-financial assets in China from 1990 to 2019. An economic growth framework, gross capital formation, information and communication technologies, foreign direct investment, and carbon emissions are all considered in the empirical model-the analysis produced interesting results. First, the estimates show that health expenditures and foreign direct investment have a significant long-run decreasing impact on non-financial assets in China by 0.451 and 0.234%. Second, economic growth and gross capital formation significantly affect the economy's non-financial assets. Likewise, ICT and carbon emissions also positively correlate with an explained variable in China. The findings show that the economy is becoming less investment-intensive as health spending and foreign direct investment rise. The study develops important policy implications for the selected country to achieve desired targets based on the empirical results.

Synergistic Effects of International Oil Price Fluctuations and Carbon Tax Policies on the Energy-Economy-Environment System in China

Catalyzed by COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, oil prices fluctuate dramatically on the worldwide market. Both international oil price changes and carbon tax policies have a direct impact on energy costs, thus influencing energy security and emission reduction impacts. Therefore, assessing the interaction effects of international oil price variations and carbon tax policies can assist in resolving the competing challenges of energy security and carbon emission reduction. The impact of international oil price fluctuations on China's energy-economic-environment system under the baseline scenario and carbon taxation scenario is analyzed by constructing a computable general equilibrium model comprising six modules: production, trade, institutions, price, environment, and equilibrium. The findings indicate that, in addition to reducing high-carbon energy consumption and increasing demand for clean electricity, rising international oil prices have a negative effect on real GDP, resulting in lower output in sectors other than construction, and a positive effect on the environmental system by driving carbon emission reductions. In contrast, decreasing international oil prices have the opposite effect. Nevertheless, the impact of rising and decreasing international oil prices is asymmetrical, with the positive shock effect being smaller than the negative. The carbon tax policy can effectively offset the increase in carbon emissions caused by the decline in international oil prices, which is conducive to promoting the development of clean energy, while simultaneously causing an increase in product prices and arousing a contraction in consumer demand, which has a limited negative impact on the macroeconomy.

How to Efficiently Reduce the Carbon Intensity of the Heavy Industry in China? Using Quantile Regression Approach

This decoupling between carbon dioxide emissions and the heavy industry is one of the main topics of government managers. This paper uses the quantile regression approach to investigate the carbon intensity of China's heavy industry, based on 2005-2019 panel data. The main findings are as follows: (1) incentive-based environmental regulations have the greater impact on the carbon intensity in Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan, Liaoning, and Shaanxi, because these provinces invest more in environmental governance and levy higher resource taxes; (2) the impact of mandatory environmental regulations on carbon intensity in Beijing, Tianjin, and Guangdong provinces is smaller, since these three provinces have the fewest enacted environmental laws and rely mainly on market incentives; (3) conversely, foreign direct investment has contributed most to carbon intensity reduction in Tianjin, Beijing, and Guangdong provinces, because these three have attracted more technologically advanced foreign-funded enterprises; (4) technological progress contributes more to the carbon intensity in the low quantile provinces, because these provinces have more patented technologies; (5) the carbon intensity of Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia provinces is most affected by energy consumption structures because of their over-reliance on highly polluting coal.

Modeling the impact of the COVID‐19 outbreak on environment, health sector and energy market

The global outbreak of COVID‐19 disease had a significant impact on the entire globe. Such a notable public health event can be seen as a “black swan” that brings unpredictable and unusual forces into the economic context and that it could typically lead to a chain of adverse reactions and market disruptions. Hence, the purpose of this study is to examine how COVID‐19 affects the environment, health, and the oil and energy markets. To achieve this objective, we used daily data for several measures that refer to the environment, health, and oil and energy, for the first wave of the COVID‐19 pandemic (December 31, 2019–May 22, 2020). The variable integration mix led to the approach of the ARDL model, and the Granger causality test was also employed. These empirical techniques allowed us to examine the cointegration between variables and causal relationships. The econometric results of the ARDL models exhibited that the global new cases and new deaths of COVID‐19 have short and long‐term effects on the environment, the health sector, the oil, and energy measures. However, no significant causal connection was found between the pandemic and the environment, the health sector, or the oil and energy industry, according to the Granger causality test. The uniqueness of current approach consists in the investigation of pandemic impact on the health, environment, oil, and energy sector by applying the ARDL model that permits the analysis of cointegration both in the long run and in the short term. This study provides important insights for investors and policy makers.

The progress, impact analysis, challenges and new perceptions for electric power and energy sectors in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic

Understanding the COVID-19 crisis that arose in 2019 is a significant important case study to prepare scenarios and meet electrical energy consumption and high renewable energy production (REP), especially in the context of the power systems. Although many researchers have investigated the medical field and electric power sectors associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, critical factors affecting the development of the REP like electric demand, power system, electric markets, economy, and environment have are still not studied in great detail. In this perspective, this paper analyses the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the development of the REP, electrical energy consumption, power system maintenance, electric markets, energy demand, ongoing investment projects/investment plans, economy and renewable energy sectors. Estimation of energy demand based on cooling degree days (CDDs) and heating degree days (HDDs) methods has been examined and contrasted with the same period in prior years to observe electricity consumption Besides, climate change and energy efficiency or energy intensity related to the energy demand have been investigated and analysed before and following the pandemic. Some important energy statistical data is addressed and examined in detail. In addition to these, various critical factors such as driver and barrier forces affecting the REP has been discussed during lockdown restrictions of the COVID-19. These findings will help researchers and academicians to analyse the far-reaching implications of the COVID-19 outbreak on the energy demand and contribute to figuring out and plan higher renewables share scenarios and power system management issues.

A comparative analysis of the financialization of commodities during COVID-19 and the global financial crisis using a quantile regression approach

The paper aims at studying the financialization of commodities during coronavirus pandemic, thereafter referred as COVID19 and comparing the same with global financial crisis, thereafter referred as GFC. The connectedness among energy commodities particularly after 2020 was found strong, the effect is medium in case of metals and least in case of agriculture commodities. The findings proved that the financialization of commodities during COVID 19 was much strong as compared to GFC. An investigation of comparative analysis of financialization in developed countries and developing countries is also made, which indicates that connectedness is strong in developed countries as compared to developing countries. The findings reveal the effects were less significant from 2010 to 2019. Gold has significant effect with stock market during COVID 19 and GFC period, marking it a safe haven asset during crisis. Overall, the findings cast doubt on the hedging properties of energy commodities. The finding also indicates the COVID 19 had a deeper impact as compared to GFC.

A multiscale integrated analysis of the COVID-19 restrictions: The energy metabolism of UK and the related socio-economic changes

The COVID-19 pandemic and the related lockdown restrictions have imposed a wide range of impacts that need to be analysed based on the specific characteristics of countries. By comparing socio-economic and energy data for the four quarters of 2020 to the same period of 2019, the MuSIASEM approach is used, for the first time, to investigate the energy metabolism of UK during a period of economic downturn. Results show that the commercial and the public administration activities have been able to achieve energy efficiency increases, and the residential sector has accounted for energy-related economies of scale. The industrial and the other activity sectors, on the contrary, have raised the energy intensity of production. Comparted to time series data, scenarios, and modelling exercises, the MuSIASEM approach integrates a wide range of intensive and extensive variables across different scales of analysis and investigate how specific socio-economic and energy structures have reacted to the COVID-19 crisis. The methodology can be easily replicated for other case studies and results can support the design of recovery and sustainable transition strategies.

Single-cell sorting of microalgae and identification of optimal conditions by using response surface methodology coupled with life-cycle approaches

Response surface methodology (RSM) has been widely used to identify optimal conditions for environmental microorganisms to maximize degrading pollutants and accumulating biomass. However, to date, environmental impact and economic cost have rarely been considered. In this study, a single cell of microalgae Chlorella sorokiniana ZM-5 was sorted, and its enrichment was carried out for the first time. The optimized conditions by RSM for achieving the highest COD, TN, TP removal and 352.61 mg/g lipid production were 24 h light time, 4.3:1C/N, 7.2 pH, and 30 °C temperature, respectively. Life-cycle approaches were then carried out upon this illustrative case, and the results indicated that the implementation of the above optimal conditions could reduce the total environmental impact by 48.0% and the total economic impact by 10.2%. This study showed the feasibility of applying life-cycle approaches to examine the optimal conditions of a biological process in terms of minimizing environmental impact and economic costs.

Wind Variation near the Black Sea Coastal Areas Reflected by the ERA5 Dataset

In the context of the European Green Deal implementation, it is expected that there will be an increase in number of the wind farms located near the coastal areas in order to support this initiative. The Black Sea represents an important source of wind energy, and as a consequence, in the present work the regional wind resources (onshore and offshore) are evaluated by considering a total of 20 years of ERA5 wind data covering the 20-year time interval from January 2002 to December 2021. From a general perspective, it is clear that the offshore areas (100 km from the shoreline) are defined by much higher wind speed values than in the onshore, reaching an average of 8.75 m/s for the points located on the western sector. During the winter, these values can go up to 8.75 m/s, with the mention that the northern sectors from Ukraine and Russia may easily exceed 8 m/s. In terms of the wind turbines’ selection, for the offshore areas defined by consistent wind resources, generators will be considered that are defined by a rated wind speed of 11 m/s. Finally, we can mention that a theoretical offshore wind turbine of 20 MW can reach a capacity factor located between 20.9 and 48.3%, while a maximum annual electricity production of 84.6 GWh may be obtained from the sites located near the Romanian and Ukrainian sectors, respectively.

High-dimensional nonlinear dependence and risk spillovers analysis between China's carbon market and its major influence factors

In July 2021, China began its national emissions trading scheme, marking a new stage of development for the country's carbon market. This study analyzes the multidimensional correlation between carbon prices in the Guangdong pilot market and eight influencing factors from three perspectives (the international carbon market, energy prices, and China's economic situation), using the ARMA-GARCH-vine copula model. The CoVaR between the carbon price and each factor is then calculated using copula-CoVaR. The results show that the crude oil market plays the primary role in the vine structure, and that the carbon market is not strongly correlated with other markets. China's carbon market is still a regional market driven by government policy, and the international carbon and energy markets (especially the crude oil market) have upward risk spillover effects upon it. This indicates an asymmetric risk spillover between influencing factors and the carbon market. The findings of this study will help market participants prepare risk management strategies and make related investment decisions, and provide a reference for policy makers to formulate national emission trading scheme policies.

Graphical abstract

Geographical Determinants of Regional Retail Sales: Evidence from 12,500 Retail Shops in Qiannan County, China

The rapid development of the Chinese economy has stimulated consumer demand and brought huge opportunities for the retail industry. Previous studies have emphasized the importance of estimating regional consumption potentiality. However, the determinants of retail sales are yet to be systematically studied, especially at the micro level. As a result, the realization of sustainable development goals in the retail industry is restricted. In this paper, we studied the determinants of retail sales from two aspects—location-based socioeconomic factors and spatial competition between shops. Using 12,500 retail shops as our sample and by adopting a grid-division strategy, we found that regional retail sales can be positively impacted by nearby population, road length, and most non-commercial points of interest (POIs). By contrast, the number of other commercial facilities, such as catering facilities and shopping malls, and the area of geographic barriers often caused negative impacts on retail sales. As to the competition effects, we found that the isolation and decentralization of shops in one area have a marginally positive effect on sales performance within a threshold distance of 226.19 m for a central grid and a threshold distance of 514.85 m for surrounding grids, respectively. This study explores the determinants of micro-level retail sales and provides decision makers with practical and realistic approaches for generating better site selection and marketing strategies, thus realizing the sustainable development goals of the retail industry.

The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Consumption, Output, and Investment in China’s Industrial Sectors

This paper aims to simulate and evaluate the impacts of increases and decreases in oil price on industrial sectors in China. We develop an oil-economy computable general equilibrium (OE-CGE) model with crude oil as an important factor in production. The transmission mechanism of crude oil price swings to various industrial sectors is described in the model. We calibrate parameters in the model parameters using input-output data. In addition, we simulate the rise and fall of oil prices in the model and assess the impact of crude oil prices on various industrial sectors. The results show that crude oil price changes have the greatest impact on the output and consumption of crude oil and gas extraction products sector, crude oil refined coke products, and processed nuclear fuel products sector. The investment of public utilities sector is the most sensitive to changes in crude oil price. When the price of crude oil changes, its investment drops significantly. Crude oil price stability is extremely important for investment and output stability in all sectors.

Future assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the electricity market based on a stochastic socioeconomic model

This paper proposes a time-series stochastic socioeconomic model for analyzing the impact of the pandemic on the regulated distribution electricity market. The proposed methodology combines the optimized tariff model (socioeconomic market model) and the random walk concept (risk assessment technique) to ensure robustness/accuracy. The model enables both a past and future analysis of the impact of the pandemic, which is essential to prepare regulatory agencies beforehand and allow enough time for the development of efficient public policies. By applying it to six Brazilian concession areas, results demonstrate that consumers have been/will be heavily affected in general, mainly due to the high electricity tariffs that took place with the pandemic, overcoming the natural trend of the market. In contrast, the model demonstrates that the pandemic did not/will not significantly harm power distribution companies in general, mainly due to the loan granted by the regulator agency, named COVID-account. Socioeconomic welfare losses averaging 500 (MR$/month) are estimated for the equivalent concession area, i.e., the sum of the six analyzed concession areas. Furthermore, this paper proposes a stochastic optimization problem to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the electricity market over time, considering the interests of consumers, power distribution companies, and the government. Results demonstrate that it is successful as the tariffs provided by the algorithm compensate for the reduction in demand while increasing the socioeconomic welfare of the market.

Can Major Public Health Emergencies Affect Changes in International Oil Prices?

In order to deepen the understanding of the impact of major public health emergencies on the oil market and to enhance the risk response capability, this study analyzed the logical relationship between major public health emergencies and international oil price changes, identified the change points, and calculated the probability of abrupt changes to international oil prices. Based on monthly data during six major public health emergencies from 2009 to 2020, this study built a product partition model. The results show that only the influenza A (H1N1) and COVID-19 pandemics were significant reasons for abrupt changes in international oil prices. Furthermore, the wild poliovirus epidemic, the Ebola epidemic, the Zika epidemic, and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo had limited effects. Overall, the outbreak of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in major global economies has a more pronounced impact on international oil prices.

The Impacts of COVID-19 on China's Economy and Energy in the Context of Trade Protectionism

In the current context of rising trade protectionism, deeply understanding the impacts of COVID-19 on economy and energy has important practical significance for China to cope with external shocks in an uncertain environment and enhance economic resilience. By constructing an integrated economic and energy input-output model including the COVID-19 shock, this paper assesses the impacts of COVID-19 on China's macro-economy and energy consumption in the context of trade protectionism. The results are shown as follows. First, in the context of protectionism, the outbreak of COVID-19 in China would cause a 2.2-3.09% drop in China's GDP and a 1.56-2.48% drop in energy consumption, while adverse spillovers from global spread of COVID-19 would reduce its GDP by 2.27-3.28% and energy consumption by 2.48-3.49%. Second, the negative impacts of domestic outbreak on China's construction, non-metallic mineral products, and services would be on average 1.29% higher than those on other industries, while the impacts of global spread of COVID-19 on export-oriented industries such as textiles and wearing apparel would be on average 1.23% higher than other industries. Third, the effects of two wave of the pandemic on China's fossil energy consumption would be on average 1.44% and 0.93% higher than non-fossil energy consumption, respectively.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic to the Sustainability of the Energy Sector

In order to control the COVID-19 pandemic, the governments of the world started to implement measures regarding social distance and social contacts, including closures of cities, work and study relocations, and work suspension. The epidemical situation and the lockdown of the economy by governments in various countries caused changes in production, changes in the habits of energy consumers and other energy-related changes. This article analyses the impact of the global pandemic on the energy sector and the relationship with the progress to the sustainability of the energy sector. The systematic literature review was performed in the Web of Science (WoS) database. The research follows recommendations of the SALSA (Search, Appraisal, Synthesis and Analysis) and PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) approaches. A total of 113 relevant articles were selected for the analysis. All selected articles were categorized according to their application and impact areas. The five main impact areas of the COVID-19 pandemic to the sustainability of the energy sector were identified: consumption and energy demand; air pollution; investments in renewable energy; energy poverty; and energy system flexibility. Based on the current research findings and perception of the problem, the main insights for future research in the field are provided.