Differences Between Men and Women in Time Trends in Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain (1980–2013)

Clustering Trend Changes of Lung Cancer Incidence in Europe via the Growth Mixture Model during 1990-2016

Background

Lung cancer accounts for half of all deaths from cancer in Europe and has the highest incidence in Southern Europe. The current study aimed to cluster trend changes of lung cancer incidence in Europe via the growth mixture model.

Methods

The dataset included incidence rates of female and male lung cancer per 100,000 for 42 European countries during 1990–2016 compiled from the Gapminder database. The growth mixture model was implemented to recognize different longitudinal patterns and estimate the linear trend of each pattern in Mplus 7.4 software.

Results

The observed overall trend of incidence for female and male lung cancer was raising and falling, respectively, and Iceland was the only country with higher incidence of female versus male lung cancer in 2016. The growth mixture model suggests 3 main patterns for the trend of lung cancer incidence both for males and females. In male lung cancer, a sharp decreasing pattern was detected for 6 countries including Belarus, Estonia, Russia, Slovenia, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom; also, a moderately decreasing pattern was observed among the other countries. In female lung cancer, a moderate increasing trend was observed for 8 countries including the United Kingdom, Denmark, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Montenegro, Netherlands, and Norway; the other patterns were categorized into two clusters with slow increasing trends.

Conclusion

Given the raising patterns in the incidence of lung cancer among European females, especially in the United Kingdom, Denmark, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Montenegro, Netherlands, and Norway, urgent effective measures are recommended to be taken.

Smoking pattern and risk of lung cancer among women participating in cancer screening programmes

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to describe the smoking prevalence, the smoking pattern, and the risk of lung cancer among women who participated in a cancer screening (breast, cervical and colorectal) in Spain.

METHODS

We used data from the Spanish National Health Survey of 2011-12, a cross-sectional study of the adult Spanish population from women in the age of participation in the population cancer screening. We used two definitions of the high risk of lung cancer according to the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) criteria and the NELSON criteria.

RESULTS

Participation in screening was 76.6% in breast cancer, 6.6% in colorectal cancer, and 70.3% in cervical cancer. The percentage of current smokers was 17.1 of women who participated breast cancer, 15.4 of women who participated colorectal cancer, and 26.1 of women who participated cervical cancer. According to NLST criteria, the percentage of current smokers women who had a high risk of lung cancer was 23.1 for breast cancer, 23.5 for colorectal cancer and 4.5 for cervical cancer. These figures were higher with the NELSON criteria.

CONCLUSION

At least 250 000 women in Spain have a high risk of lung cancer and are participating in a cancer screening programme. These programmes might be an opportunity for implementing specific interventions aiming to reduce this risk.

Modelling lung cancer mortality rates from smoking prevalence: Fill in the gap

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study is to estimate the gap between smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality and provide predictions of lung cancer mortality based on previous smoking prevalence.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used data from the Spanish National Health Surveys (2003, 2006 and 2011) to obtain information about tobacco use and data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute to obtain cancer mortality rates from 1980 to 2013. We calculated the cross-correlation among the historical series of smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality rate (LCMR) to estimate the most likely time gap between both series. We also predicted the magnitude and timing of the LCMR peak.

RESULTS

All cross-correlations were statistically significant and positive (all above 0.8). For men, the most likely gap ranges from 20 to 34 years. The age-adjusted LCMR increased by 3.2 deaths per 100,000 people for every 1 unit increase in the smoking prevalence 29 years earlier. The highest rate for men was observed in 1995 (55.6 deaths). For women, the most likely gap ranges from 10 to 37 years. The age-adjusted LCMR increased by 0.28 deaths per 100,000 people for every 1 unit increase in the smoking prevalence 32 years earlier. The maximum rate is expected to occur in 2026 (10.3 deaths).

CONCLUSION

The time series of prevalence of tobacco smoking explains the mortality from lung cancer with a distance (or gap) of around 30 years. According to the lagged smoking prevalence, the lung cancer mortality among men is declining while in women continues to rise (maximum expected in 2026).

Reflections on the Implementation of Low-Dose Computed Tomography Screening in Individuals at High Risk of Lung Cancer in Spain

Lung cancer (LC) is a major public health issue. Despite recent advances in treatment, primary prevention and early diagnosis are key to reducing the incidence and mortality of this disease. A recent clinical trial demonstrated the efficacy of selective screening by low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) in reducing the risk of both lung cancer mortality and all-cause mortality in high-risk individuals. This article contains the reflections of an expert group on the use of LDCT for early diagnosis of LC in high-risk individuals, and how to evaluate its implementation in Spain. The expert group was set up by the Spanish Society of Pulmonology and Thoracic Surgery (SEPAR), the Spanish Society of Thoracic Surgery (SECT), the Spanish Society of Radiology (SERAM) and the Spanish Society of Medical Oncology (SEOM).

Bayesian prediction of lung and breast cancer mortality among women in Spain (2014-2020)

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer (BC) is the main cause of cancer mortality among women, and mortality from lung cancer (LC) is increasing among women. The purpose of the present study was to project the mortality rates of both cancers and predict when LC mortality will exceed BC mortality.

METHODS

The cancer mortality data and female population distribution were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude rate (CR), age-standardized rate (ASR), and age-specific rate were calculated for the period 1980-2013 and projected for the period 2014-2020 using a Bayesian log-linear Poisson model.

RESULTS

All calculated rates were greater for BC than for LC in 2013 (CR, 27.3 versus 17.3; ASR, 13.5 versus 9.3), and the CR was not projected to change by 2020 (29.2 versus 27.6). The ASR for LC is expected to surpass that of BC in 2019 (12.9 versus 12.7).

CONCLUSIONS

By 2020 the LC mortality rates may exceed those of BC for ages 55-74 years, possibly because of the prevalence of smoking among women, and the screening for and more effective treatment of BC. BC screening could be a good opportunity to help smokers quit by offering counseling and behavioral intervention.