Editorial Commentary: Scoping Knees With Osteoarthritis and Opioid Dependence? Brace Yourself for Postop Pain

Machine Learning Model Identifies Preoperative Opioid Use, Male Sex, and Elevated BMI as Predictive Factors for of Prolonged Opioid Consumption Following Arthroscopic Meniscal Surgery

PURPOSE

To develop a predictive machine learning model to identify prognostic factors for continued opioid prescriptions after arthroscopic meniscus surgery.

METHODS

Patients undergoing arthroscopic meniscal surgery, such as meniscus debridement, repair, or revision at a single institution from 2013 to 2017 were retrospectively followed up to 1 year postoperatively. Procedural details were recorded, including concomitant procedures, primary versus revision, and whether a partial debridement or a repair was performed. Intraoperative arthritis severity was measured using the Outerbridge Classification. The number of opioid prescriptions in each month was recorded. Primary analysis used was the multivariate Cox-Regression model. We then created a naïve Bayesian model, a machine learning classifier that uses Bayes' theorem with an assumption of independence between variables.

RESULTS

A total of 581 patients were reviewed. Postoperative opioid refills occurred in 98 patients (16.9%). Multivariate logistic modeling was used; independent risk factors for opioid refills included male sex, larger body mass index, and chronic preoperative opioid use, while meniscus resection demonstrated decreased likelihood of refills. Concomitant procedures, revision procedures, and presence of arthritis graded by the Outerbridge classification were not significant predictors of postoperative opioid refills. The naïve Bayesian model for extended postoperative opioid use demonstrated good fit with our cohort with an area under the curve of 0.79, sensitivity of 94.5%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 83%, and a detection rate of 78.2%. The two most important features in the model were preoperative opioid use and male sex.

CONCLUSION

After arthroscopic meniscus surgery, preoperative opioid consumption and male sex were the most significant predictors for sustained opioid use beyond 1 month postoperatively. Intraoperative arthritis was not an independent risk factor for continued refills. A machine learning algorithm performed with high accuracy, although with a high false positive rate, to function as a screening tool to identify patients filling additional narcotic prescriptions after surgery.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III, retrospective comparative study.

Preoperative Opioid Usage, Male Sex, and Preexisting Knee Osteoarthritis Impacts Opioid Refills After Isolated Arthroscopic Meniscectomy: A Population-Based Study

PURPOSE

To identify risk factors for opioid consumption after arthroscopic meniscectomy using a large national database.

METHODS

Patients undergoing primary arthroscopic meniscectomy from 2007 to 2016 were retrospectively accessed from the Humana database. Patients were categorized as those who filled opioid prescriptions within 3 months (OU), within 1 month (A-OU), between 1 and 3 months (C-OU), and never filled opioid prescriptions (N-OU) before surgery. Rates of opioid use were evaluated preoperatively and longitudinally tracked for each cohort. Prolonged opioid use was defined as continued opioid prescription filling at ≥3 months after surgery. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with opioid refills at 12 months after surgery.

RESULTS

There were 88,120 patients (53.7% female) who underwent arthroscopic meniscectomy, of whom 46.1% (n = 39,078) were N-OU. About a quarter (25.3%) of patients continued filling opioid prescriptions at 1 year postoperatively. In addition, opioid fill rate at 1 year was significantly greater in the OU group compared with the N-OU group with a relative risk of 2.89 (40.7% vs 14.1%; 95% confidence interval 2.81-2.98; P < .0001). Multiple logistic regression model identified C-OU (odds ratio 3.67; 95% confidence interval 3.53-3.82; P < .0001) as the strongest predictor of opioid use at 12 months postoperatively. Furthermore, male sex, A-OU, knee osteoarthritis, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, fibromyalgia, anxiety or depression, alcohol use disorder, and tobacco use (P < .02 for all) had significantly increased odds of opioid use at 12 months postoperatively. However, patients <40 years (P < .0001) had significantly decreased odds of opioid use 12 months postoperatively.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative opioid filling is a significant risk factor for opioid use at 12 months postoperatively. Male sex, preexisting knee osteoarthritis, and diagnosis of anxiety or depression were independent risk factors for opioid use 12 months following arthroscopic meniscectomy.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level-III, Retrospective Cohort Study.

Opioids After Arthroscopy: We're Only Halfway Through the Crisis

The orthopaedic community and the general medical community have made progress in the quest to control opioid abuse, but perhaps we are only halfway there. Ample literature has defined the crisis, and governmental guidelines have attempted to curb overprescribing. The American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery now emphasizes the importance of continuing education on the issue, and the arthroscopic and related surgical literature shows the deleterious effect of preoperative narcotic consumption and the opportunity to achieve positive outcomes while limiting postoperative opioid prescriptions. A comprehensive solution requires identifying the problem, considering multimodal anesthesia, avoiding overprescribing, acknowledging that minimizing opioid use is not equivalent to undertreating pain, minimizing preoperative opioid use, managing patient expectations, and continuing to investigate the outcomes of pain management while limiting opioid prescriptions or forgoing opioids altogether.