Centennial review of influenza in Taiwan

Genomic Surveillance for Monitoring Variants of Concern: SARS-CoV-2 Delta, Omicron, and Beyond

The continuing emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants has perpetuated the current pandemic far beyond initial expectations. It is now likely that this virus is here to stay. Thus, a new infrastructure is required for monitoring and tracking of viral outbreaks which includes epidemiological and genomic surveillance. More effective monitoring will support rapid response times required for development of new treatments and vaccines to help manage the spread of the current virus and prepare the platforms required for future pandemics.

Differential disease severity and whole-genome sequence analysis for human influenza A/H1N1pdm virus in 2015-2016 influenza season

During the 2015–16 winter, the US experienced a relatively mild influenza season compared to Taiwan, which had a higher number of total and severe cases. While H1N1pdm viruses dominated global surveillance efforts that season, the global distribution of genetic variants and their contributions to disease severity have not been investigated. Samples collected from influenza A-positive patients by the Johns Hopkins Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance active surveillance in the emergency rooms in Baltimore, Maryland, USA, and northern Taiwan between November 2015 and April 2016, were processed for influenza A virus whole-genome sequencing. In Baltimore, the majority of the viruses were the H1N1pdm clade 6B.1 and no H1N1pdm clade 6B.2 viruses were detected. In northern Taiwan, more than half of the H1N1pdm viruses were clade 6B.1 and 38% were clade 6B.2, consistent with the global observation that most 6B.2 viruses circulated in Asia and not North America. Whole virus genome sequence analysis identified two genetic subgroups present in each of the 6B.1 and 6B.2 clades and one 6B.1 interclade reassortant virus. Clinical data showed 6B.2 patients had more disease symptoms including higher crude and inverse probability weighted odds of pneumonia than 6B.1 patients, suggesting 6B.2 circulation may be one of the reasons for the severe flu season in Taiwan. Local surveillance efforts linking H1N1pdm virus sequences to patient clinical and demographic data improve our understanding of influenza circulation and disease potential.

Comparison of severe pediatric complicated influenza patients with and without neurological involvement

ABSTRACT

Although influenza is generally an acute, self-limited, and uncomplicated disease in healthy children, it can result in severe morbidity and mortality. The objectives of this study were to analyze and compare the clinical features and outcome of severe pediatric influenza with and without central nervous system (CNS) involvement.We conducted a retrospective observational study of children admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of China Medical University Children's Hospital in Taiwan with a confirmed diagnosis of influenza. The demographic data, clinical and laboratory presentations, therapeutic strategies, and neurodevelopmental outcomes for these patients were analyzed. Furthermore, comparison of patients with and without CNS involvement was conducted.A total of 32 children with severe influenza were admitted during the study periods. Sixteen children were categorized as the non-CNS (nCNS) group and 16 children were categorized as the CNS group. Nine of them had underlying disease. The most common complication in the nCNS group was acute respiratory distress syndrome, (n = 8/16), followed by pneumonia (n = 7/16, 44%). In the CNS group, the most lethal complication was acute necrotizing encephalopathy (n = 3/16) which led to 3 deaths. The overall mortality rate was higher in the CNS group (n = 6) than in the nCNS group (n = 1) (37.5% vs 6.25%, P = .03).The mortality rate of severe complicated influenza was significantly higher with CNS involvement. Children with primary cardiopulmonary abnormalities were at high risk of developing severe complicated influenza, while previously healthy children exhibited risk for influenza-associated encephalitis/encephalopathy.

Comparison of Immunogenicity and Safety between a Single Dose and One Booster Trivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccination in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: A 20-Week, Open-Label Trial

BACKGROUND

Non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (CKD-ND) patients are recommended to receive a one-dose influenza vaccination annually. However, studies investigating vaccine efficacy in the CKD-ND population are still lacking. In this study, we aimed to evaluate vaccine efficacy between the one-dose and two-dose regimen and among patients with different stages of CKD throughout a 20-week follow-up period.

METHODS

We conducted a single-center, non-randomized, open-label, controlled trial among patients with all stages of CKD-ND. Subjects were classified as unvaccinated, one-dose, and two-dose groups (4 weeks apart) after enrollment. Serial changes in immunological parameters (0, 4, 8, and 20 weeks after enrollment), including seroprotection, geometric mean titer (GMT), GMT fold-increase, seroconversion, and seroresponse, were applied to evaluate vaccine efficacy.

RESULTS

There were 43, 84, and 71 patients in the unvaccinated, one-dose, and two-dose vaccination groups, respectively. At 4-8 weeks after vaccination, seroprotection rates in the one- and two-dose group for H1N1, H3N2, and B ranged from 82.6-95.8%, 97.4-100%, and 73.9-100%, respectively. The concomitant seroconversion and GMT fold-increases nearly met the suggested criteria for vaccine efficacy for the elderly population. Although the seroprotection rates for all of the groups were adequate, the seroconversion and GMT fold-increase at 20 weeks after vaccination did not meet the criteria for vaccine efficacy. The two-dose regimen had a higher probability of achieving seroprotection for B strains (Odds ratio: 3.5, 95% confidence interval (1.30-9.40)). No significant differences in vaccine efficacy were found between early (stage 1-3) and late (stage 4-5) stage CKD.

CONCLUSIONS

The standard one-dose vaccination can elicit sufficient protective antibodies. The two-dose regimen induced a better immune response when the baseline serum antibody titer was low. Monitoring change in antibody titers for a longer duration is warranted to further determine the current vaccine strategy in CKD-ND population.

Association between socioeconomic status and influenza-like illness: A study from Western part of India

Objectives:

Health status is associated with socioeconomic status (SES) of the individuals. The aim of this study was to identify any link between the SES and influenza-like illness (ILI).

Materials and Methods:

This observational case-control study was done on 18–70 years old patients presented with ILI (cases) at tertiary care hospital of western India. Controls were selected from demographically matched elective surgery patients except the SES. SES was evaluated as per the Modified B G Prasad 2017 scale and participants were further classified in lower SES (per capita income <2000 INR) and non-lower SES groups.

Results:

810 cases and 830 controls were compared. Many cases were from lower SES, had poor hand hygiene, and were using soil, mud, ash (SMA) for hand cleaning as compared to the control. Among the cases significant numbers were from lower SES (543/810[67%], P < 0.02), many were alcoholics, smokers, had poor hand hygiene, were using SMA for hand cleaning, and had preexisting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), while few were having diabetes in the lower SES group as compared to the non-lower SES group. ILI was more common among lower SES class in unadjusted analysis (odds ratio [OR] 1.58, 95% CI 0.89–2.76) and the results were significant even after the adjustment of covariates (OR 1.62, 95% CI, 0.94–2.85).

Conclusion:

Lower SES people were 2.8 times more prone to ILI as compared to the age- and sex-matched control in western part of India.

Traditional Herbal Medicine for the Prevention and Treatment of Cold and Flu in the Autumn of 2020, Overlapped With COVID-19

Many herbs and plants included in several traditional systems have promising bioactive compounds for modern drug therapy. The second round of COVID-19 cases will be accompanied by the spread of seasonal influenza in the fall. The combination of the influenza season and the second wave of COVID-19 may lead to more confusion and put more pressure on public health systems. A literature survey was accomplished using multiple databases including PubMed, Science Direct, ISI web of knowledge, and Google Scholar. The most important antiviral herbs for cold and flu are Thymus vulgaris, honeysuckle flowers, Andrographis, yarrow, peppermint leaf and oil, and Calendula. The most important expectorant herbs for flu and cold are tulsi, snake root, licorice root, clove, slippery elm root, marshmallow osha root, and sage leaf. Immunostimulant herbs for these 2 diseases are Echinacea root, Eucalyptus, garlic, ginseng, marshmallow, slippery elm, Isatisroot, Usnea lichen, myrrh resin, and ginger root. In this mini-review, we mention the key role of some of the most important herbal plants and prescriptions against influenza and cold on the basis of traditional Asian medicine.

Applying Machine Learning Models with An Ensemble Approach for Accurate Real-Time Influenza Forecasting in Taiwan: Development and Validation Study

Background

Changeful seasonal influenza activity in subtropical areas such as Taiwan causes problems in epidemic preparedness. The Taiwan Centers for Disease Control has maintained real-time national influenza surveillance systems since 2004. Except for timely monitoring, epidemic forecasting using the national influenza surveillance data can provide pivotal information for public health response.

Objective

We aimed to develop predictive models using machine learning to provide real-time influenza-like illness forecasts.

Methods

Using surveillance data of influenza-like illness visits from emergency departments (from the Real-Time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance System), outpatient departments (from the National Health Insurance database), and the records of patients with severe influenza with complications (from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System), we developed 4 machine learning models (autoregressive integrated moving average, random forest, support vector regression, and extreme gradient boosting) to produce weekly influenza-like illness predictions for a given week and 3 subsequent weeks. We established a framework of the machine learning models and used an ensemble approach called stacking to integrate these predictions. We trained the models using historical data from 2008-2014. We evaluated their predictive ability during 2015-2017 for each of the 4-week time periods using Pearson correlation, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and hit rate of trend prediction. A dashboard website was built to visualize the forecasts, and the results of real-world implementation of this forecasting framework in 2018 were evaluated using the same metrics.

Results

All models could accurately predict the timing and magnitudes of the seasonal peaks in the then-current week (nowcast) (ρ=0.802-0.965; MAPE: 5.2%-9.2%; hit rate: 0.577-0.756), 1-week (ρ=0.803-0.918; MAPE: 8.3%-11.8%; hit rate: 0.643-0.747), 2-week (ρ=0.783-0.867; MAPE: 10.1%-15.3%; hit rate: 0.669-0.734), and 3-week forecasts (ρ=0.676-0.801; MAPE: 12.0%-18.9%; hit rate: 0.643-0.786), especially the ensemble model. In real-world implementation in 2018, the forecasting performance was still accurate in nowcasts (ρ=0.875-0.969; MAPE: 5.3%-8.0%; hit rate: 0.582-0.782) and remained satisfactory in 3-week forecasts (ρ=0.721-0.908; MAPE: 7.6%-13.5%; hit rate: 0.596-0.904).

Conclusions

This machine learning and ensemble approach can make accurate, real-time influenza-like illness forecasts for a 4-week period, and thus, facilitate decision making.

Clinical Characteristics and Predictors of Mortality in Critically Ill Influenza Adult Patients

Severe influenza is associated with high morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting the clinical outcomes of critically ill influenza patients. In this retrospective study, we enrolled critically ill adult patients with influenza at the Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital in Taiwan. We evaluated the demographic, clinical, and laboratory findings and examined whether any of these measurements correlated with mortality. We then created an event-based algorithm as a simple predictive tool using two variables with statistically significant associations with mortality. Between 2015 and 2018, 102 critically ill influenza patients (median age, 62 years) were assessed; among them, 41 (40.1%) patients died. Of the 94 patients who received oseltamivir therapy, 68 (72.3%) began taking oseltamivir 48 h after the onset of illness. Of the 102 patients, the major influenza-associated complications were respiratory failure (97%), pneumonia (94.1%), acute kidney injury (65.7%), adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) (51%), gastrointestinal bleeding (35.3%), and bacteremia (16.7%). In the multivariate regression model, high lactate levels, ARDS, acute kidney injury, and gastrointestinal bleeding were independent predictors of mortality in critically ill influenza patients. The optimal lactate level cutoff for predicting mortality was 3.7 mmol/L with an area under curve of 0.728. We constructed an event-associated algorithm that included lactate and ARDS. Fifteen (75%) of 20 patients with lactate levels 3.7 mmol/L and ARDS died, compared with only 1 (7.7%) of 13 patients with normal lactate levels and without ARDS. We identified clinical and laboratory predictors of mortality that could aid in the care of critically ill influenza patients. Identification of these prognostic markers could be improved to prioritize key examinations that might be useful in determining patient outcomes.

Population dynamics at neuraminidase position 151 of influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 virus in clinical specimens

Influenza A virus mutates rapidly, allowing it to escape natural and vaccine-induced immunity. Neuraminidase (NA) is a surface protein capable of cleaving the glycosidic linkages of neuraminic acids to release newly formed virions from infected cells. Genetic variants within a viral population can influence the emergence of pandemic viruses as well as drug susceptibility and vaccine effectiveness. In the present study, 55 clinical specimens from patients infected with the 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus, abbreviated as A(H1N1)pdm09, during the 2015-2016 outbreak season in Taiwan were collected. Whole genomes were obtained through next-generation sequencing. Based on the published sequences from A(H1N1)pdm09 strains worldwide, a mixed population of two distinct variants at NA position 151 was revealed. We initially reasoned that such a mixed population may have emerged during cell culture. However, additional investigations confirmed that these mixed variants were detectable in the specimens of patients. To further investigate the role of the two NA-151 variants in a dynamic population, a reverse genetics system was employed to generate recombinant A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. It was observed that the mixture of the two distinct variants was characterized by a higher replication rate compared to the recombinant viruses harbouring a single variant. Moreover, an NA inhibition assay revealed that a high frequency of the minor NA-151 variant in A(H1N1)pdm09 was associated with a reduced susceptibility to NA inhibitors. We conclude that two distinct NA-151 variants can be identified in patient specimens and that such variants may increase viral replication and NA activity.

The influenza chronicles: From the 1918 pandemic to current understanding of host defense mechanisms

In this special edition of the Biomedical Journal, we learn about the battle between host and influenza virus at the respiratory epithelium, and how the history of influenza pandemics has driven both major advances in the understanding of immunology and planning for future outbreaks. We also learn of a nanoparticle system that holds promise for photodynamic therapy in breast cancer. Finally, we add evidence to the debate of the safety of a minimally invasive technique for aortic valve replacement in elderly patients.