A predictive model to distinguish malignant and benign thyroid nodules based on age, gender and ultrasonographic features

Evaluation of the ultrasound findings of thyroid gland enlargement in Cape Coast Teaching Hospital, Ghana: A retrospective cross-sectional study

Background and Aim

Goiter is a major source of morbidity in the world, especially in the developing world, where dietary iodine deficiency, a known cause of this condition, is endemic. The diagnosis is mostly by ultrasonography (USG) scan, which can give anatomical, pathological, and functional information for the management of goiter. This study aimed to determine the commonest ultrasound findings of goiter in Ghana.

Method

The records of all 213 patients with goiter diagnosed by USG scan over a 5-year period were retrieved. Data collected were sociodemographics, ultrasound features, thyroid nodules diameter, and Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (TI-RADS) scores, which were analyzed using GNU PSPP, version 1.2.0-3. χ 2 and two-tailed independent samples t-test were also employed, with p ≤ 0.05.

Results

A total of 213 patients with goiter diagnosed by USG scan were obtained over the study period. The mean age of the participants was 50.01 ± 17.27 years, with an age range of 16-92 years and females constituting the majority (82.16%). The commonest ultrasound features were well-defined solid nodules. The lesion sites for most patients were the whole thyroid (28.17%), both lobes (24.41%), and the right lobe (20.19%). The mean difference in sizes of cysts and solid nodules among genders was 0.26 (CI: -0.14 to 0.67, p = 0.20) and 0.12 (CI: -0.43 to 0.66, p = 0.67), respectively. The TI-RADS score featured TI-RADS 4 (36.62%), TI-RADS 1 (28.17%), TI-RADS 3 (25.82%), TI-RADS 5 (5.16%), and TI-RADS 2 (4.23%). Solid nodules (49.32%, p = 0.001) and cysts (35.71%, p = 0.003) were more common within 41-60 years and less frequent in those <21 years. A p ≤ 0.05 was considered significant in this study.

Conclusion

The predominant ultrasound features were well-defined solid nodules, simple cysts, and solid nodules with cystic changes, mostly located in the entire thyroid gland and least located in the isthmus only. Cysts and solid nodules were mostly seen in the 41-60 years age group.

American Thyroid Association and Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System developed by the American College of Radiology: which one is better at predicting malignancy risk?

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to compare the capacity of American Thyroid Association and Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System developed by the American College of Radiology in predicting malignancy risk of thyroid nodules and to verify which one is better at avoiding unnecessary fine needle aspiration.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study with 565 thyroid nodules, followed at a tertiary care hospital, in an iodine-replete area. Those were classified as American Thyroid Association and Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System developed by the American College of Radiology systems and stratified according to the Bethesda classification of fine needle aspiration. The values of sensibility, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value accuracy were calculated. Also, the percentage of unnecessary biopsies was presented.

RESULTS

The mean age of the individuals was 58.2±13.5 [26-90] years for benign nodules and 41.7±15.6 [23-66] years for malignant nodules (p=0.002). Regarding gender, 92.6% (n=150) of the individuals with benign nodules and 85.7% (n=06) with malignant nodules were females (p=0.601). For American Thyroid Association, 90.9% of sensibility, 51.4% of specificity, 52.6% of accuracy, 10.2% of positive predictive value, and 98.9% of negative predictive value were found. For Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System developed by the American College of Radiology, 90.9% of sensibility, 49.7% of specificity, 52.1% of accuracy, 9.9% of positive predictive value, and 98.9% of negative predictive value were found. .Notably, 12.3% of unnecessary fine needle aspiration were found in American Thyroid Association and 44.4% were found in Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System developed by the American College of Radiology.

CONCLUSION

Both Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System developed by the American College of Radiology and American Thyroid Association are able to predict the malignancy risk of thyroid nodules. Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System developed by the American College of Radiology was better at avoiding unnecessary fine needle aspiration.

Factors Associated with Malignancy in Patients with Maximal Thyroid Nodules ≥2 Cm

Purpose

The relationship between large thyroid nodules and the risk of malignancy is controversial. This study aimed to examine the relationship between thyroid nodule size and the risk of malignancy of maximal thyroid nodules ≥2 cm and the risk of accompanied by occult thyroid carcinoma.

Methods

This was a retrospective study of patients who underwent near-total or total thyroidectomy for thyroid nodules from January 2016 to January 2019 at the First Affiliated Hospital,Zhejiang University School of Medicine. Clinical, biochemical, and pathological characteristics were examined for association with malignancy using univariable, multivariable, and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses.

Results

Finally, 367 patients (277 females (75.5%) and 90 males (24.5%)) with a mean age of 49.0±13.5 years were included. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR=0.959, 95% CI: 0.939–0.979, P<0.001), Hashimoto’s thyroiditis (OR=2.437, 95% CI: 1.162–5.112, P=0.018), the diameter of maximal nodule (small) (OR=0.706, 95% CI: 0.541–0.919, P=0.010), and punctate echogenic foci (OR=2.837, 95% CI: 1.598–5.286, P<0.001) were independently associated with malignancy. Of 223 patients who had non-suspicious malignant nodules (TI-RADS <4), 12.7% (n=29) patients showed malignancy at postoperative pathology. Only age was associated with occult PTC in the univariable analyses (OR=0.962, 95% CI: 0.934–0.991, P=0.011). When TPOAb was used as a continuous variable for statistical analysis, it showed a significant difference in the ROC curve, and the results showed TPOAb >31.4 mIU/L was more associated with occult PTC (P=0.006). A predictive model including four independent risk factors of malignancy showed an optimal discriminatory accuracy (area under the curve, AUC) of 0.783 (95% CI=0.732–0.833).

Conclusion

Relatively young age (<54.5 years), Hashimoto’s thyroiditis, the diameter of the maximal nodule, and punctate echogenic foci were independently associated with thyroid malignancy in patients with maximal thyroid nodules ≥2 cm. Young age (<54.5 years) and TPOAb >31.4 mIU/L were associated with occult PTC.