Modified isotonic regression based phase I/II clinical trial design identifying optimal biological dose

UNITED: A Unified Transparent and Efficient Phase I/II Trial Design for Dose Optimization Accounting for Ordinal Graded, Continuous and Mixed Toxicity and Efficacy Endpoints

A primary objective of oncology dose-finding trials for novel therapies is to determine an optimal biological dose (OBD) that is both tolerable and therapeutically beneficial for patients in subsequent clinical trials. These new therapeutic agents are more likely to induce multiple low- or moderate-grade toxicities rather than dose-limiting toxicities. Additionally, efficacy is evaluated comprehensively, differentiating between complete remission and partial remission, as well as incorporating continuous efficacy endpoints. This important issue was highlighted in the American Statistical Association (ASA) Biopharmaceutical (BIOP) Section open forums and was a significant consideration of the FDA's "Project Optimus." We proposed the UNITED design, a unified, transparent, and efficient Phase I/II trial design to incorporate toxicity and efficacy grades and types, as well as continuous efficacy responses, into dose-finding and optimization. The UNITED design can handle binary, quasi-binary, continuous, and mixed toxicity and efficacy endpoints. We further extended the UNITED design, referred to as TITE-UNITED, to accommodate delayed toxicity and efficacy outcomes. Simulation studies showed that the UNITED and TITE-UNITED designs have desirable operating characteristics, performing comparably to or better than existing designs. A user-friendly software is available for practical implementation.

A Bayesian Dynamic Model-Based Adaptive Design for Oncology Dose Optimization in Phase I/II Clinical Trials

With the development of targeted therapy, immunotherapy, and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), there is growing concern over the "more is better" paradigm developed decades ago for chemotherapy, prompting the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to initiate Project Optimus to reform dose optimization and selection in oncology drug development. For early-phase oncology trials, given the high variability from sparse data and the rigidity of parametric model specifications, we use Bayesian dynamic models to borrow information across doses with only vague order constraints. Our proposed adaptive design simultaneously incorporates toxicity and efficacy outcomes to select the optimal dose (OD) in Phase I/II clinical trials, utilizing Bayesian model averaging to address the uncertainty of dose-response relationships and enhance the robustness of the design. Additionally, we extend the proposed design to handle delayed toxicity and efficacy outcomes. We conduct extensive simulation studies to evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed method under various practical scenarios. The results demonstrate that the proposed designs have desirable operating characteristics. A trial example is presented to demonstrate the practical implementation of the proposed designs.

Explainable machine learning prediction of edema adverse events in patients treated with tepotinib

Tepotinib is approved for the treatment of patients with non-small-cell lung cancer harboring MET exon 14 skipping alterations. While edema is the most prevalent adverse event (AE) and a known class effect of MET inhibitors including tepotinib, there is still limited understanding about the factors contributing to its occurrence. Herein, we apply machine learning (ML)-based approaches to predict the likelihood of occurrence of edema in patients undergoing tepotinib treatment, and to identify factors influencing its development over time. Data from 612 patients receiving tepotinib in five Phase I/II studies were modeled with two ML algorithms, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting Trees, to predict edema AE incidence and severity. Probability calibration was applied to give a realistic estimation of the likelihood of edema AE. Best model was tested on follow-up data and on data from clinical studies unused while training. Results showed high performances across all the tested settings, with F1 scores up to 0.961 when retraining the model with the most relevant covariates. The use of ML explainability methods identified serum albumin as the most informative longitudinal covariate, and higher age as associated with higher probabilities of more severe edema. The developed methodological framework enables the use of ML algorithms for analyzing clinical safety data and exploiting longitudinal information through various covariate engineering approaches. Probability calibration ensures the accurate estimation of the likelihood of the AE occurrence, while explainability tools can identify factors contributing to model predictions, hence supporting population and individual patient-level interpretation.

REDOMA: Bayesian random-effects dose-optimization meta-analysis using spike-and-slab priors

The rise of cutting-edge precision cancer treatments has led to a growing significance of the optimal biological dose (OBD) in modern oncology trials. These trials now prioritize the consideration of both toxicity and efficacy simultaneously when determining the most desirable dosage for treatment. Traditional approaches in early-phase oncology trials have conventionally relied on the assumption of a monotone relationship between treatment efficacy and dosage. However, this assumption may not hold valid for novel oncology therapies. In reality, the dose-efficacy curve of such treatments may reach a plateau at a specific dose, posing challenges for conventional methods in accurately identifying the OBD. Furthermore, achieving reliable identification of the OBD is typically not possible based on a single small-sample trial. With data from multiple phase I and phase I/II trials, we propose a novel Bayesian random-effects dose-optimization meta-analysis (REDOMA) approach to identify the OBD by synthesizing toxicity and efficacy data from each trial. The REDOMA method can address trials with heterogeneous characteristics. We adopt a curve-free approach based on a Gamma process prior to model the average dose-toxicity relationship. In addition, we utilize a Bayesian model selection framework that uses the spike-and-slab prior as an automatic variable selection technique to eliminate monotonic constraints on the dose-efficacy curve. The good performance of the REDOMA method is confirmed by extensive simulation studies.

Adaptive phase I-II clinical trial designs identifying optimal biological doses for targeted agents and immunotherapies

Targeted agents and immunotherapies have revolutionized cancer treatment, offering promising options for various cancer types. Unlike traditional therapies the principle of "more is better" is not always applicable to these new therapies due to their unique biomedical mechanisms. As a result, various phase I-II clinical trial designs have been proposed to identify the optimal biological dose that maximizes the therapeutic effect of targeted therapies and immunotherapies by jointly monitoring both efficacy and toxicity outcomes. This review article examines several innovative phase I-II clinical trial designs that utilize accumulated efficacy and toxicity outcomes to adaptively determine doses for subsequent patients and identify the optimal biological dose, maximizing the overall therapeutic effect. Specifically, we highlight three categories of phase I-II designs: efficacy-driven, utility-based, and designs incorporating multiple efficacy endpoints. For each design, we review the dose-outcome model, the definition of the optimal biological dose, the dose-finding algorithm, and the software for trial implementation. To illustrate the concepts, we also present two real phase I-II trial examples utilizing the EffTox and ISO designs. Finally, we provide a classification tree to summarize the designs discussed in this article.