Optimizing deep neural networks to predict the effect of social distancing on COVID-19 spread

An innovative ensemble model based on deep learning for predicting COVID-19 infection

Nowadays, global public health crises are occurring more frequently, and accurate prediction of these diseases can reduce the burden on the healthcare system. Taking COVID-19 as an example, accurate prediction of infection can assist experts in effectively allocating medical resources and diagnosing diseases. Currently, scholars worldwide use single model approaches or epidemiology models more often to predict the outbreak trend of COVID-19, resulting in poor prediction accuracy. Although a few studies have employed ensemble models, there is still room for improvement in their performance. In addition, there are only a few models that use the laboratory results of patients to predict COVID-19 infection. To address these issues, research efforts should focus on improving disease prediction performance and expanding the use of medical disease prediction models. In this paper, we propose an innovative deep learning model Whale Optimization Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) called WOCLSA which incorporates three models ANN, CNN and LSTM. The WOCLSA model utilizes the Whale Optimization Algorithm to optimize the neuron number, dropout and batch size parameters in the integrated model of ANN, CNN and LSTM, thereby finding the global optimal solution parameters. WOCLSA employs 18 patient indicators as predictors, and compares its results with three other ensemble deep learning models. All models were validated with train-test split approaches. We evaluate and compare our proposed model and other models using accuracy, F1 score, recall, AUC and precision metrics. Through many studies and tests, our results show that our prediction models can identify patients with COVID-19 infection at the AUC of 91%, 91%, and 93% respectively. Other prediction results achieve a respectable accuracy of 92.82%, 92.79%, and 91.66% respectively, f1-score of 93.41%, 92.79%, and 92.33% respectively, precision of 93.41%, 92.79%, and 92.33% respectively, recall of 93.41%, 92.79%, and 92.33% respectively. All of these exceed 91%, surpassing those of comparable models. The execution time of WOCLSA is also an advantage. Therefore, the WOCLSA ensemble model can be used to assist in verifying laboratory research results and predict and to judge various diseases in public health events.

Application of Meta-Heuristic Algorithms for Training Neural Networks and Deep Learning Architectures: A Comprehensive Review

The learning process and hyper-parameter optimization of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and deep learning (DL) architectures is considered one of the most challenging machine learning problems. Several past studies have used gradient-based back propagation methods to train DL architectures. However, gradient-based methods have major drawbacks such as stucking at local minimums in multi-objective cost functions, expensive execution time due to calculating gradient information with thousands of iterations and needing the cost functions to be continuous. Since training the ANNs and DLs is an NP-hard optimization problem, their structure and parameters optimization using the meta-heuristic (MH) algorithms has been considerably raised. MH algorithms can accurately formulate the optimal estimation of DL components (such as hyper-parameter, weights, number of layers, number of neurons, learning rate, etc.). This paper provides a comprehensive review of the optimization of ANNs and DLs using MH algorithms. In this paper, we have reviewed the latest developments in the use of MH algorithms in the DL and ANN methods, presented their disadvantages and advantages, and pointed out some research directions to fill the gaps between MHs and DL methods. Moreover, it has been explained that the evolutionary hybrid architecture still has limited applicability in the literature. Also, this paper classifies the latest MH algorithms in the literature to demonstrate their effectiveness in DL and ANN training for various applications. Most researchers tend to extend novel hybrid algorithms by combining MHs to optimize the hyper-parameters of DLs and ANNs. The development of hybrid MHs helps improving algorithms performance and capable of solving complex optimization problems. In general, the optimal performance of the MHs should be able to achieve a suitable trade-off between exploration and exploitation features. Hence, this paper tries to summarize various MH algorithms in terms of the convergence trend, exploration, exploitation, and the ability to avoid local minima. The integration of MH with DLs is expected to accelerate the training process in the coming few years. However, relevant publications in this way are still rare.

Interval type-3 fuzzy aggregators for ensembles of neural networks in COVID-19 time series prediction

In this work we are presenting an approach for fuzzy aggregation in ensembles of neural networks for forecasting. The aggregator is used in an ensemble to combine the outputs of the networks forming the ensemble. This is done in such a way that the total output of the ensemble is better than the outputs of the individual modules. In our approach a fuzzy system is used to estimate the weights that will be assigned to the outputs in the process of combining them in a weighted average calculation. The uncertainty in the process of aggregation is modeled with interval type-3 fuzzy, which in theory can outperform type-2 and type-1. Publicly available data sets of COVID-19 cases for several countries in the world were utilized to test the proposed approach. Simulation results of the COVID-19 data show the potential of the approach to outperform other aggregators in the literature.

Interval Type-3 Fuzzy Aggregation of Neural Networks for Multiple Time Series Prediction: The Case of Financial Forecasting

In this work, we present an approach for fuzzy aggregation of neural networks for forecasting. The interval type-3 aggregator is used to combine the outputs of the networks to improve the quality of the prediction. This is carried out in such a way that the final output is better than the outputs of the individual modules. In our approach, a fuzzy system is used to estimate the prediction increments that will be assigned to the output in the process of combining them with a set of fuzzy rules. The uncertainty in the process of aggregation is modeled with an interval type-3 fuzzy system, which, in theory, can outperform type-2 and type-1 fuzzy systems. Publicly available data sets of COVID-19 cases and the Dow Jones index were utilized to test the proposed approach, as it has been stated that a pandemic wave can have an effect on the economies of countries. The simulation results show that the COVID-19 data does have, in fact, an influence on the Dow Jones time series and its use in the proposed model improves the forecast of the Dow Jones future values.