Acute bacterial or viral infection-What's the difference? A perspective from PKPD modellers

Combination of in vivo phage therapy data with in silico model highlights key parameters for pneumonia treatment efficacy

The clinical (re)development of bacteriophage (phage) therapy to treat antibiotic-resistant infections faces the challenge of understanding the dynamics of phage-bacteria interactions in the in vivo context. Here, we develop a general strategy coupling in vitro and in vivo experiments with a mathematical model to characterize the interplay between phage and bacteria during pneumonia induced by a pathogenic strain of Escherichia coli. The model allows the estimation of several key parameters for phage therapeutic efficacy. In particular, it quantifies the impact of dose and route of phage administration as well as the synergism of phage and the innate immune response on bacterial clearance. Simulations predict a limited impact of the intrinsic phage characteristics in agreement with the current semi-empirical choices of phages for compassionate treatments. Model-based approaches will foster the deployment of future phage-therapy clinical trials.

Lassa viral dynamics in non-human primates treated with favipiravir or ribavirin

Lassa fever is an haemorrhagic fever caused by Lassa virus (LASV). There is no vaccine approved against LASV and the only recommended antiviral treatment relies on ribavirin, despite limited evidence of efficacy. Recently, the nucleotide analogue favipiravir showed a high antiviral efficacy, with 100% survival obtained in an otherwise fully lethal non-human primate (NHP) model of Lassa fever. However the mechanism of action of the drug is not known and the absence of pharmacokinetic data limits the translation of these results to the human setting. Here we aimed to better understand the antiviral effect of favipiravir by developping the first mathematical model recapitulating Lassa viral dynamics and treatment. We analyzed the viral dynamics in 24 NHPs left untreated or treated with ribavirin or favipiravir, and we put the results in perspective with those obtained with the same drugs in the context of Ebola infection. Our model estimates favipiravir EC50 in vivo to 2.89 μg.mL-1, which is much lower than what was found against Ebola virus. The main mechanism of action of favipiravir was to decrease virus infectivity, with an efficacy of 91% at the highest dose. Based on our knowledge acquired on the drug pharmacokinetics in humans, our model predicts that favipiravir doses larger than 1200 mg twice a day should have the capability to strongly reduce the production infectious virus and provide a milestone towards a future use in humans.

Timing of Antiviral Treatment Initiation is Critical to Reduce SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load

We modeled the viral dynamics of 13 untreated patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus 2 to infer viral growth parameters and predict the effects of antiviral treatments. In order to reduce peak viral load by more than two logs, drug efficacy needs to be > 90% if treatment is administered after symptom onset; an efficacy of 60% could be sufficient if treatment is initiated before symptom onset. Given their pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties, current investigated drugs may be in a range of 6–87% efficacy. They may help control virus if administered very early, but may not have a major effect in severely ill patients.

Timing of antiviral treatment initiation is critical to reduce SARS-CoV-2 viral load

We modeled the viral dynamics of 13 untreated patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 to infer viral growth parameters and predict the effects of antiviral treatments. In order to reduce peak viral load by more than 2 logs, drug efficacy needs to be greater than 80% if treatment is administered after symptom onset; an efficacy of 50% could be sufficient if treatment is initiated before symptom onset. Given their pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties, current investigated drugs may be in a range of 20-70% efficacy. They may help control virus if administered very early, but may not have a major effect in severe patients.