A mathematical model to predict the evolution of retinal nerve fiber layer thinning in multiple sclerosis patients

The macular retinal ganglion cell layer as a biomarker for diagnosis and prognosis in multiple sclerosis: A deep learning approach

PURPOSE

The macular ganglion cell layer (mGCL) is a strong potential biomarker of axonal degeneration in multiple sclerosis (MS). For this reason, this study aims to develop a computer-aided method to facilitate diagnosis and prognosis in MS.

METHODS

This paper combines a cross-sectional study of 72 MS patients and 30 healthy control subjects for diagnosis and a 10-year longitudinal study of the same MS patients for the prediction of disability progression, during which the mGCL was measured using optical coherence tomography (OCT). Deep neural networks were used as an automatic classifier.

RESULTS

For MS diagnosis, greatest accuracy (90.3%) was achieved using 17 features as inputs. The neural network architecture comprised the input layer, two hidden layers and the output layer with softmax activation. For the prediction of disability progression 8 years later, accuracy of 81.9% was achieved with a neural network comprising two hidden layers and 400 epochs.

CONCLUSION

We present evidence that by applying deep learning techniques to clinical and mGCL thickness data it is possible to identify MS and predict the course of the disease. This approach potentially constitutes a non-invasive, low-cost, easy-to-implement and effective method.

Development of a predictive model for predicting disability after optic neuritis: a secondary analysis of the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial

Objective

The present study aimed to develop a prediction model for predicting developing debilities after optic neuritis.

Methods

The data for this research was obtained from the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial (ONTT). The predictive model was built based on a Cox proportional hazards regression model. Model performance was assessed using Harrell's C-index for discrimination, calibration plots for calibration, and stratification of patients into low-risk and high-risk groups for utility evaluation.

Results

A total of 416 patients participated. Among them, 101 patients (24.3%) experienced disability, which was defined as achieving or surpassing a score of 3 on the expanded disability status scale. The median follow-up duration was 15.5 years (interquartile range, 7.0 to 16.8). Two predictors in the final predictive model included the classification of multiple sclerosis at baseline and the condition of the optic disk in the affected eye at baseline. Upon incorporating these two factors into the model, the model's C-index stood at 0.71 (95% CI, 0.66-0.76, with an optimism of 0.005) with a favorable alignment with the calibration curve. By utilizing this model, the ONTT cohort can be categorized into two risk categories, each having distinct rates of disability development within a 15-year timeframe (high-risk group, 41% [95% CI, 31-49%] and low-risk group, 13% [95% CI, 8.4-17%]; log-rank p-value of <0.001).

Conclusion

This predictive model has the potential to assist physicians in identifying individuals at a heightened risk of experiencing disability following optic neuritis, enabling timely intervention and treatment.

Evaluation of multiple sclerosis severity using a new OCT tool

PURPOSE

To assess the ability of a new posterior pole protocol to detect areas with significant differences in retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) and ganglion cell layer (GCL) thickness in patients with multiple sclerosis versus healthy control subjects; in addition, to assess the correlation between RNFL and GCL thickness, disease duration, and the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS).

METHODS

We analyzed 66 eyes of healthy control subjects and 100 eyes of remitting-relapsing multiple sclerosis (RR-MS) patients. Double analysis based on first clinical symptom onset (CSO) and conversion to clinically definite MS (CDMS) was performed. The RR-MS group was divided into subgroups by CSO and CDMS year: CSO-1 (≤ 5 years) and CSO-2 (≥ 6 years), and CDMS-1 (≤ 5 years) and CDMS-2 (≥ 6 years).

RESULTS

Significant differences in RNFL and GCL thickness were found between the RR-MS group and the healthy controls and between the CSO and CDMS subgroups and in both layers. Moderate to strong correlations were found between RNFL and GCL thickness and CSO and CDMS. Furthermore, we observed a strong correlation with EDSS 1 year after the OCT examination.

CONCLUSIONS

The posterior pole protocol is a useful tool for assessing MS and can reveal differences even in early stages of the disease. RNFL thickness shows a strong correlation with disability status, while GCL thickness correlates better with disease duration.

Could Mathematics be the Key to Unlocking the Mysteries of Multiple Sclerosis?

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune, neurodegenerative disease that is driven by immune system-mediated demyelination of nerve axons. While diseases such as cancer, HIV, malaria and even COVID have realised notable benefits from the attention of the mathematical community, MS has received significantly less attention despite the increasing disease incidence rates, lack of curative treatment, and long-term impact on patient well-being. In this review, we highlight existing, MS-specific mathematical research and discuss the outstanding challenges and open problems that remain for mathematicians. We focus on how both non-spatial and spatial deterministic models have been used to successfully further our understanding of T cell responses and treatment in MS. We also review how agent-based models and other stochastic modelling techniques have begun to shed light on the highly stochastic and oscillatory nature of this disease. Reviewing the current mathematical work in MS, alongside the biology specific to MS immunology, it is clear that mathematical research dedicated to understanding immunotherapies in cancer or the immune responses to viral infections could be readily translatable to MS and might hold the key to unlocking some of its mysteries.

Comparison of Machine Learning Methods Using Spectralis OCT for Diagnosis and Disability Progression Prognosis in Multiple Sclerosis

Machine learning approaches in diagnosis and prognosis of multiple sclerosis (MS) were analysed using retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness, measured by optical coherence tomography (OCT). A cross-sectional study (72 MS patients and 30 healthy controls) was used for diagnosis. These 72 MS patients were involved in a 10-year longitudinal follow-up study for prognostic purposes. Structural measurements of RNFL thickness were performed using different Spectralis OCT protocols: fast macular thickness protocol to measure macular RNFL, and fast RNFL thickness protocol and fast RNFL-N thickness protocol to measure peripapillary RNFL. Binary classifiers such as multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector machines (SVM), decision tree (DT), k-nearest neighbours (k-NN), Naïve Bayes (NB), ensemble classifier (EC) and long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network were tested. For MS diagnosis, the best acquisition protocol was fast macular thickness protocol using k-NN (accuracy: 95.8%; sensitivity: 94.4%; specificity: 97.2%; precision: 97.1%; AUC: 0.958). For MS prognosis, our model with a 3-year follow up to predict disability progression 8 years later was the best predictive model. DT performed best for fast macular thickness protocol (accuracy: 91.3%; sensitivity: 90.0%; specificity: 92.5%; precision: 92.3%; AUC: 0.913) and SVM for fast RNFL-N thickness protocol (accuracy: 91.3%; sensitivity: 87.5%; specificity: 95.0%; precision: 94.6%; AUC: 0.913). This work concludes that measurements of RNFL thickness obtained with Spectralis OCT have a good ability to diagnose MS and to predict disability progression in MS patients. This machine learning approach would help clinicians to have valuable information.

Optical Coherence Tomography and Visual Evoked Potentials as Prognostic and Monitoring Tools in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

Understanding the mechanisms underlying progression and developing new treatments for progressive multiple sclerosis (PMS) are among the major challenges in the field of central nervous system (CNS) demyelinating diseases. Over the last 10 years, also because of some technological advances, the visual pathways have emerged as a useful platform to study the processes of demyelination/remyelination and their relationship with axonal degeneration/protection. The wider availability and technological advances in optical coherence tomography (OCT) have allowed to add information on structural neuroretinal changes, in addition to functional information provided by visual evoked potentials (VEPs). The present review will address the role of the visual pathway as a platform to assess functional and structural damage in MS, focusing in particular on the role of VEPs and OCT, alone or in combination, in the prognosis and monitoring of PMS.

Machine learning in diagnosis and disability prediction of multiple sclerosis using optical coherence tomography

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neurodegenerative disease that affects the central nervous system, especially the brain, spinal cord, and optic nerve. Diagnosis of this disease is a very complex process and generally requires a lot of time. In addition, treatments are applied without any information on the disability course in each MS patient. For these two reasons, the objective of this study was to improve the MS diagnosis and predict the long-term course of disability in MS patients based on clinical data and retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness, measured by optical coherence tomography (OCT).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A total of 104 healthy controls and 108 MS patients, 82 of whom had a 10-year follow-up, were enrolled. Classification algorithms such as multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector machines (SVM), decision tree (DT), k-nearest neighbours (k-NN), Naïve Bayes (NB), ensemble classifier (EC) and long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network were tested to develop two predictive models: MS diagnosis model and MS disability course prediction model.

RESULTS

For MS diagnosis, the best result was obtained using EC (accuracy: 87.7%; sensitivity: 87.0%; specificity: 88.5%; precision: 88.7%; AUC: 0.8775). In line with this good performance, the accuracy was 85.4% using k-NN and 84.4% using SVM. And, for long-term prediction of MS disability course, LSTM recurrent neural network was the most appropriate classifier (accuracy: 81.7%; sensitivity: 81.1%; specificity: 82.2%; precision: 78.9%; AUC: 0.8165). The use of MLR, SVM and k-NN also showed a good performance (AUC ≥ 0.8).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that machine learning techniques, using clinical and OCT data, can help establish an early diagnosis and predict the course of MS. This advance could help clinicians select more specific treatments for each MS patient. Therefore, our findings underscore the potential of RNFL thickness as a reliable MS biomarker.

Bruch's membrane opening-minimum rim width: An alternative OCT biomarker study for multiple sclerosis

PURPOSE

Bruch's membrane opening-minimum rim width (BMO-MRW) and RNFL measured using anatomic positioning system (APS-RNFL) are novel OCT methods and remained unexplored in MS patients.To investigate the novel parameters of spectral-domain OCT as an alternative biomarker in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS).

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study; participants consisted of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients and healthy controls (HC). Eyes were classified according to the presence of MS and previous optic neuritis (ON). Measurements of standard peripapillary RNFL (S-RNFL), BMO-MRW, and APS-RNFL were performed.

RESULT

A total of 244 eyes of 122 participants (MS-patients: 63, HC: 59) were included in the study. Fifty-one eyes had a history of previous ON. In almost all measured parameters, neuroretinal rim thicknesses were observed the thinnest in eyes with ON history between all subgroups. S-RNFL and APS-RNFL techniques showed the difference in neuroretinal rim thickness in all three subjects (ON+, ON-, and HC). However, BMO-MRW, on the other hand, could not distinguish between ON(-) patients and HC. The relationship between OCT parameters and EDSS were observed only in eyes with an ON history in all three techniques. A meaningful model with 78% accuracy was obtained by using only the OCT parameters as risk factors. In the ROC analysis, no parameters were found to have acceptable high sensitivity and specificity. BMO-MRW was statistically weaker in every aspect than other RNFL techniques.

CONCLUSION

The novel APS-RNFL technique appears to be a bit more reliable alternative to S-RNFL technique to support therapeutic decision-making in MS. BMO-MRW has not been found as a successful alternative to S-RNFL.

Detection of Neurological and Ophthalmological Pathologies with Optical Coherence Tomography Using Retinal Thickness Measurements: A Bibliometric Study

We carry out a bibliometric analysis on neurological and ophthalmological pathologies based on retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness measured with optical coherence tomography (OCT). Documents were selected from Scopus database. We have applied the most commonly used bibliometric indicators, both for production and dispersion, as Price’s law of scientific literature growth, Lotka’s law, the transient index, and the Bradford model. Finally, the participation index of the different countries and affiliations was calculated. Two-hundred-and-forty-one documents from the period 2000–2019 were retrieved. Scientific production was better adjusted to linear growth (r = 0.88) than exponential (r = 0.87). The duplication time of the documents obtained was 5.6 years. The transience index was 89.62%, which indicates that most of the scientific production is due to very few authors. The signature rate per document was 5.2. Nine journals made up the Bradford core. USA and University of California present the highest production. The most frequently discussed topics on RNFL thinning are glaucoma and neurodegenerative diseases (NDD). The growth of the scientific literature on RNFL thickness was linear, with a very high rate of transience, which indicates low productivity and the presence of numerous authors who sporadically publish on this topic. No evidence of a saturation point was observed. In the last 10 years, there has been an increase in documents relating the decline of RNFL to NDD.