STEMI and COVID-19 Pandemic in Saudi Arabia

Effect of fibrinolytic therapy on ST-elevation myocardial infarction clinical outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is the result of transmural ischemia of the myocardium and is associated with a high mortality rate. Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) is the recommended first-line treatment strategy for patients with STEMI. The timely delivery of PPCI became extremely challenging for STEMI patients during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, leading to a projected steep rise in mortality. These delays were overcome by the shift from first-line therapy and the development of modern fibrinolytic-based reperfusion. It is unclear whether fibrinolytic-based reperfusion therapy is effective in improving STEMI endpoints.

AIM

To determine the incidence of fibrinolytic therapy during the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on STEMI clinical outcomes.

METHODS

PubMed, Google Scholar, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were queried from January 2020 up to February 2022 to identify studies investigating the effect of fibrinolytic therapy on the prognostic outcome of STEMI patients during the pandemic. Primary outcomes were the incidence of fibrinolysis and the risk of all-cause mortality. Data were meta-analyzed using the random effects model to derive odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals. Quality assessment was carried out using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale.

RESULTS

Fourteen studies including 50136 STEMI patients (n = 15142 in the pandemic arm; n = 34994 in the pre-pandemic arm) were included. The mean age was 61 years; 79% were male, 27% had type 2 diabetes, and 47% were smokers. Compared with the pre-pandemic period, there was a significantly increased overall incidence of fibrinolysis during the pandemic period [OR: 1.80 (1.18 to 2.75); I²= 78%; P = 0.00; GRADE: Very low]. The incidence of fibrinolysis was not associated with the risk of all-cause mortality in any setting. The countries with a low-and middle-income status reported a higher incidence of fibrinolysis [OR: 5.16 (2.18 to 12.22); I² = 81%; P = 0.00; GRADE: Very low] and an increased risk of all-cause mortality in STEMI patients [OR: 1.16 (1.03 to 1.30); I² = 0%; P = 0.01; GRADE: Very low]. Meta-regression analysis showed a positive correlation of hyperlipidemia (P = 0.001) and hypertension (P < 0.001) with all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSION

There is an increased incidence of fibrinolysis during the pandemic period, but it has no effect on the risk of all-cause mortality. The low- and middle-income status has a significant impact on the all-cause mortality rate and the incidence of fibrinolysis.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Coronary Interventional Cardiology Activity in King Abdulaziz Medical City: A Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has decreased the number of patients undergoing coronary interventional procedures. This study aimed to identify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volume of patients and the types of interventional cardiology procedures performed at King Abdulaziz Cardiac Center (KACC) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review was undertaken with a sample size of 301 patients aged over 18 years, who underwent various cardiac interventions at King Abdulaziz Cardiac Center (KACC) between March 15, 2019, and February 29, 2020 (prior to the pandemic, group A), and between March 1, 2020, and March 15, 2021 (during the pandemic, group B). The BESTCare 2.0 system (ezCaretech, Seoul, South Korea) was used to collect data, Microsoft Office Excel (Microsoft^® Corp., Redmond, WA) was utilized for data entry, and the Statistical Package for Social Sciences software (IBM SPSS Statistics, Armonk, NY) was employed for data analysis.

RESULTS

There was a 21.4% decrease in the number of procedures performed during the pandemic. The largest age group within the population was ≥60 years, comprising 43.5% and 52.3% of groups A and B, respectively. Most patients had a body mass index (BMI) of >30, i.e., 43.5% of patients before the pandemic and 47.7% after the pandemic. In group A, 39.9% were smokers and 60.6% in group B. The prevalence of hypertension and obesity was higher in group B, i.e., 77.3% and 42.3%, respectively. The incidence of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) was 39.9% in group A and 39.4% in group B. For non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), the comparable statistics were 56.5% and 49.2%, respectively. In groups A and B, readmission frequencies were 17.9% and 20%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The study indicates a minor decline in the number of percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) conducted in the interventional cardiology department of King Abdulaziz Cardiac Center (KACC) immediately following the COVID-19 outbreak, reflecting a steady activity in the center.

Effect of Austrian COVID-19 lockdowns on acute myocardial infarction frequency and long-term mortality: a multicentre observational study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to find out if the decrease in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) admissions during the first COVID-19 lockdowns (LD), which was described by previous studies, occurred equally in all LD periods (LD1, LD2, LD2021), which had identical restrictions. Further, we wanted to analyse if the decrease of AMI admission had any association with the 1-year mortality rate.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This study is a prospective observational study of two centres that are participating in the Vienna ST-elevation myocardial infarction network.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1732 patients who presented with AMI according to the 4th universal definition of myocardial infarction in 2019, 2020 and the LD period of 2021 were included in our study. Patients with myocardial infarction with non-obstructive coronary arteries were excluded from our study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome of this study was the frequency of AMI during the LD periods and the all-cause and cardiac-cause 1-year mortality rate of 2019 (pre-COVID-19) and 2020.

RESULTS

Out of 1732 patients, 70% (n=1205) were male and median age was 64 years. There was a decrease in AMI admissions of 55% in LD1, 28% in LD2 and 17% in LD2021 compared with 2019.There were no differences in all-cause 1-year mortality between the year 2019 (11%; n=110) and 2020 (11%; n=79; p=0.92) or death by cardiac causes [10% (n=97) 2019 vs 10% (n=71) 2020; p=0.983].

CONCLUSION

All LDs showed a decrease in AMI admissions, though not to the same extent, even though the regulatory measures were equal. Admission in an LD period was not associated with cardiac or all-cause 1-year mortality rate in AMI patients in our study.

Hospitalization, major complications and mortality in acute myocardial infarction patients during the COVID-19 era: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Since the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic began, numerous studies have reported a concerning drop in the number of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) admissions. In the present systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to compare the rate of AMI admissions and major complication during the pandemic, in comparison with pre-pandemic periods. Three major databases (PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science Core Collection) were searched. Out of 314 articles, 41 were entered into the study. Patients hospitalized for AMI were 35% less in the COVID-19 era compared with pre-pandemic periods, which was statistically significantly (OR = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.56–0.74; I² = 99%; p < 0.001; 28 studies). Patients hospitalized for STEMI and NSTEMI were 29% and 34% respectively less in the COVID-19 era compared with periods before COVID-19, which was statistically significantly (OR = 0.71; 95% CI: 0.65 –0.78; I² = 93%; p < 0.001; 22 studies, OR = 0.66; 95% CI: 0.58–0.73; I² = 95%; p < 0.001; 14 studies). The overall rate of in-hospital mortality in AMI patients increased by 26% in the COVID-19 era, which was not statistically significant (OR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.0–1.59; I² = 22%; p < 0.001; six studies). The rate of in-hospital mortality in STEMI and NSTEMI patients increased by 15% and 26% respectively in the COVID-19 era, which was not statistically significant (OR = 1.15; 95% CI: 0.85–1.57; I² = 48%; p = 0.035; 11 studies, OR = 1.35; 95% CI: 0.64–2.86; I² = 45%; p = 0.157; 3 articles). These observations highlight the challenges in the adaptation of health-care systems with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak on Emergency Department Presentation and Prognosis of Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Systematic Review and Updated Meta-Analysis

We performed an updated meta-analysis to robustly quantify admission trends of patients with ST-segment elevation MI (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation MI (NSTEMI) during the first wave of the pandemic and to characterize on a large basis the risk profile and early prognosis. Studies having the same observation period for the comparison between SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in 2020 versus control period in 2019 were included. Primary endpoints were the relative variation of hospital admissions, the difference of in-hospital mortality for STEMI and NSTEMI. Secondary were: mortality according to countries, income levels and data quality; cardiogenic shock, mechanical complications, door-to-balloon time, time from symptom onset to first medical contact, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and troponin. In total, 61 observational studies with 125,346 patients were included. Compared with 2019, during the pandemic for STEMI were observed: a 24% reduction of hospitalizations with an impact on early survival (OR = 1.33 in-hospital mortality); the time from symptom onset to first medical contact was 91.31 min longer, whereas door-to-balloon time was increased (+5.44 min); after STEMI, the rate of cardiogenic shock was 33% higher; LVEF at discharge was decreased (−3.46); elevated high-sensitivity troponin levels (1.52) on admission. For NSTEMI, in the COVID-19 period, we observed a 31% reduction of hospitalizations and higher in-hospital deaths (OR = 1.34). The highest mortality rates among countries were: Italy OR = 3.71 (high income), Serbia OR = 2.15 (upper middle) and Pakistan OR = 1.69 (lower middle). Later hospital presentation was associated with larger infarctions, as well as with increased cardiogenic shock and in-hospital mortality.

Impact of respiratory infectious epidemics on STEMI incidence and care

The effect of respiratory infectious diseases on STEMI incidence, but also STEMI care is not well understood. The Influenza 2017/2018 epidemic and the COVID-19 pandemic were chosen as observational periods to investigate the effect of respiratory virus diseases on these outcomes in a metropolitan area with an established STEMI network. We analyzed data on incidence and care during the COVID-19 pandemic, Influenza 2017/2018 epidemic and corresponding seasonal control periods. Three comparisons were performed: (1) COVID-19 pandemic group versus pandemic control group, (2) COVID-19 pandemic group versus Influenza 2017/2018 epidemic group and (3) Influenza 2017/2018 epidemic group versus epidemic control group. We used Student's t-test, Fisher's exact test and Chi square test for statistical analysis. 1455 patients were eligible. The daily STEMI incidence was 1.49 during the COVID-19 pandemic, 1.40 for the pandemic season control period, 1.22 during the Influenza 2017/2018 epidemic and 1.28 during the epidemic season control group. Median symptom-to-contact time was 180 min during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the pandemic season control group it was 90 min (p = 0.183), and in the Influenza 2017/2018 cohort it was 90 min, too (p = 0.216). Interval in the epidemic control group was 79 min (p = 0.733). The COVID-19 group had a door-to-balloon time of 49 min, corresponding intervals were 39 min for the pandemic season group (p = 0.038), 37 min for the Influenza 2017/2018 group (p = 0.421), and 38 min for the epidemic season control group (p = 0.429). In-hospital mortality was 6.1% for the COVID-19 group, 5.9% for the Influenza 2017/2018 group (p = 1.0), 11% and 11.2% for the season control groups. The respiratory virus diseases neither resulted in an overall treatment delay, nor did they cause an increase in STEMI mortality or incidence. The registry analysis demonstrated a prolonged door-to-balloon time during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Cardiac complications during the active phase of COVID-19: review of the current evidence

Growing reports since the beginning of the pandemic and till date describe increased rates of cardiac complications (CC) in the active phase of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). CC commonly observed include myocarditis/myocardial injury, arrhythmias and heart failure, with an incidence reaching about a quarter of hospitalized patients in some reports. The increased incidence of CC raise questions about the possible heightened susceptibility of patients with cardiac disease to develop severe COVID-19, and whether the virus itself is involved in the pathogenesis of CC. The wide array of CC seems to stem from multiple mechanisms, including the ability of the virus to directly enter cardiomyocytes, and to indirectly damage the heart through systemic hyperinflammatory and hypercoagulable states, endothelial injury of the coronary arteries and hypoxemia. The induced CC seem to dramatically impact the prognosis of COVID-19, with some studies suggesting over 50% mortality rates with myocardial damage, up from ~ 5% overall mortality of COVID-19 alone. Thus, it is particularly important to investigate the relation between COVID-19 and heart disease, given the major effect on morbidity and mortality, aiming at early detection and improving patient care and outcomes. In this article, we review the growing body of published data on the topic to provide the reader with a comprehensive and robust description of the available evidence and its implication for clinical practice.

Investigating the implications of COVID-19 outbreak on systems of care and outcomes of STEMI patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

There has been a concern whether the decrease in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) cases during the COVID-19 pandemic era is related to unsatisfactory performance of STEMI systems of care as well as worsening of the clinical outcomes in STEMI patients. Thus, our meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate this matter.

Methods

We compared the predetermined variables in this meta-analysis during the early and late pandemic. Using a combination of adapted search terms to fit the requirements of several search engines (PubMed, EuropePMC, SCOPUS, ProQuest, and EBSCOhost), we reviewed all observational studies citing our outcomes of interest before and during the outbreak.

Results

Thirty-five records comprising a total of 62,247 participants were identified. Overall, our meta-analysis showed that there was a huge reduction of nearly 80% for STEMI admission during the outbreak (n = 10,263) in contrast to before the outbreak period (n = 51,984). STEMI patients who were admitted during the outbreak received less primary PCI and had longer symptom-to-FMC (first medical contact) time along with prolonged door-to-balloon (DTB) time. A decrease in the achievement of final TIMI (thrombolysis in myocardial infarction) 3 flow after primary PCI was also observed in this study. However, the number of in-hospital mortality was similar between two groups.

Conclusion

There was a decrease in the STEMI care performance and worsening of clinical outcomes in STEMI patients, especially in the early pandemic period. Overall, concise health services must be implemented following a responsibility to obey health protocols to deliver high-quality services related to STEMI systems of care amidst the global pandemic.

Characteristics of patients with ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI) at the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a new challenge to the medical system in various countries. The patients with ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI) were also affected.

METHODS

We used a random-effects mode to analyze the differences of the baseline characteristics and therapeutic features between STEMI patients admitted before and after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

Thirty eight studies involving 79,753 patients were included in this analysis. The number of hospitalized STEMI patients decreased by 26% after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. There were no differences in age, sex, prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia or percutaneous coronary intervention rate between the STEMI patients before and after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the STEMI patients admitted after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic had a significantly increased time from symptom onset to first medical contact (standard mean difference: 0.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.24-0.78, p < .001) and an increased in-hospital mortality (odds ratio: 1.70, 95% confidence interval:1.14-2.56, p < .001); The in-hospital mortality of the STEMI patients with COVID-19 was 24% (95% confidence interval: 0.15-0.33); The in-hospital mortality of the STEMI patients with COVID-19 was significantly higher than that of the STEMI patients without COVID-19 at the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic (odds ratio: 7.28, 95% confidence interval: 2.75-19.28, p < .001).

CONCLUSION

The number of admitted STEMI patients was reduced while the in-hospital mortality and the time from symptom onset to first medical contact were increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Global effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the rate of acute coronary syndrome admissions: a comprehensive review of published literature

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted healthcare systems across the world. The rate of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) admissions during the pandemic has varied significantly.

Objectives

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the pandemic on ACS hospital admissions and to determine whether this is related to the number of COVID-19 cases in each country.

Method

Search engines including PubMed, Embase, Ovid and Google Scholar were searched from December 2019 to the 15 September 2020 to identify studies reporting ACS admission data during COVID-19 pandemic months in 2020 compared with 2019 admissions.

Results

A total of 40 studies were included in this multistudy analysis. They demonstrated a 28.1% reduction in the rate of admission with ACS during the COVID-19 pandemic period compared with the same period in 2019 (total of 28 613 patients in 2020 vs 39 225 in 2019). There was a significant correlation between the absolute risk reduction in the total number of ACS cases and the number of COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population (Pearson correlation=0.361 (p=0.028)). However, the correlation was not significant for each of the ACS subgroups: non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) (p=0.508), STEMI (p=0883) and unstable angina (p=0.175).

Conclusion

There was a significant reduction in the rate of ACS admission during the COVID-19 pandemic period compared with the same period in 2019 with a significant correlation with COVID-19 prevalence.

Survey of coronary catheterization laboratory activity in Iran during the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic

BACKGROUND

With the onset of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, hospitalization and treatment of non-covid patients decreased worldwide. The aim of this study is to evaluate the admission and treatment of patients with coronary artery diseases (CADs) by examining coronary Cath labs activities in some centers of Iran during the COVID-19 period.

METHODS

A retrospective, multi-center survey was conducted in four cites in Iran which participated in National Persian Registry Of CardioVascular diseasE (N-PROVE). Two periods of COVID-19 occurrence peak in Iran were compared with the same date in 2019. Information was collected on the number of diagnostic and therapeutic coronary catheterizations in both stable ischemic heart diseases (SIHDs) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) settings.

RESULTS

In the first peak of COVID-19 pandemic, coronary angiographies and angioplasties decreased by 37 and 38% compared to the same period in 2019, respectively. The most common indication for coronary angiography during this period was ACS [especially ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI)]; however, at the time of peak decrease, the SIHDs were the most. In the second peak of COVID-19 pandemic in Iran, 34% and 27% decrease in diagnostic and therapeutic coronary procedures were seen, respectively. During this period, the number of elective admissions increased, although it was still lower than that in 2019. The tendency to rescue percutaneous coronary intervention increased in most centers during the COVID-19 era, especially in the second peak.

CONCLUSION

A significant reduction in the coronary Cath lab activity has been observed during the COVID-19 pandemic that can indicate an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity.

Impact of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease Pandemic on the Performance of a Cardiovascular Department in a Non-epidemic Center in Beijing, China

Background: Knowledge of the impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on the performance of a cardiovascular department in a medical referral hub center from a non-epidemic area of China is limited.

Method: The data on the total number of non-emergency medical cares (including the number of out-patient clinic attendances, the number of patients who were hospitalized in non-intensive care wards, and patients who underwent elective cardiac intervention procedures) and emergency medical cares [including the number of emergency department (ED attendances) and chest pain center (CPC attendances), as well as the number of patients who were hospitalized in coronary care unit (CCU) and the number of patients who underwent emergency cardiac intervention procedures] before and during the pandemic (time before the pandemic: 20th January 2019 to 31st March 2019 and time during the pandemic: 20th January 2020 to 31st March 2020) in the Department of Cardiology and Macrovascular Disease, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University were collected and compared.

Results: Both the non-emergency medical and emergency medical cares were affected by the pandemic. The total number of out-patient clinic attendance decreased by 44.8% and the total number of patients who were hospitalized in non-intensive care wards decreased by 56.4%. Pearson correlation analysis showed that the number of out-patient clinic attendance per day was not associated with the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases and the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 patients in Beijing (r = −0.080, p = 0.506 and r = −0.071, p = 0.552, respectively). The total number of patients who underwent non-emergency cardiac intervention procedures decreased during the pandemic, although there were no statistically significant differences except for patent foramen ovale (PFO) occlusion (1.7 ± 2.9 vs. 8.3 ± 2.3, p = 0.035). As for the emergency medical cares, the ED attendances decreased by 22.4%, the total number of CPC attendances increased by 10.3%, and the number of patients who were hospitalized in CCU increased by 8.9%: these differences were not statistically significant. During the pandemic, the proportion of hospitalized patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) significantly increased (19.0 vs. 8.7%, p < 0.001; 28.8 vs. 18.0%, p < 0.001, respectively); also, the number of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) increased by 10.3%. There was no significant difference between patients before and during the pandemic regarding the age, gender, baseline and discharge medication therapy, as well as length of stay and in-hospital mortality.

Conclusions: Our preliminary results demonstrate that both the non-emergency and emergency medical cares were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic even in a referral medical center with low cross-infection risk. The number of the out-patient clinic attendances not associated with the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases could be due to different factors, such as the local government contamination measures. The proportion of hospitalized patients with acute myocardial infarction increased in our center during the pandemic since other hospitals stopped performing primary angioplasty. A hub-and-spoke model could be effective in limiting the collateral damage for patients affected by cardiovascular diseases when the medical system is stressed by disasters, such as COVID-19 pandemic.

Delays in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Care During the COVID-19 Lockdown: An Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Management of ST-elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI) necessitates rapid reperfusion. Delays prolong myocardial ischemia and increase the risk of complications, including death. The COVID-19 pandemic may have impacted STEMI management. We evaluated the relative volume of hospitalizations and clinical time intervals within a regional STEMI system.

METHODS

494 patients with STEMI were grouped into pre-lockdown, lockdown and re-opening cohorts. Clinical, temporal and outcome data were collected and compared between groups for both urban and rural patients, receiving primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and pharmacoinvasive revascularization, respectively. Data was compared to a 10-year historical comparator.

RESULTS

During pre-lockdown there was 238 cases versus 193 in lockdown; a 19.0% reduction in volume. When lockdown was compared to the median caseload from a 10-year historical cohort, a 19.8% reduction was observed. For patients treated with primary PCI during lockdown, median symptom-to-balloon time increased by 44-minutes [217 (IQR 157-387) vs. 261 (160-659) minutes; p=0.03]; driven by an increase in median symptom-to-door time of 41-minutes [136 (IQR 80-267) vs. 177 (IQR 90-569) minutes; p<0.01]. Only patients transferred from non-PCI facilities demonstrated an increase in door-to-reperfusion time [116 (IQR 93-150) vs. 139 (IQR 100-199) minutes; p<0.01]. More patients had left ventricular dysfunction during the lockdown [35% vs. 44%; p=0.04], but there was no difference in mortality.

CONCLUSION

During the COVID-19 lockdown, fewer patients presented with STEMI. Time-to-reperfusion was significantly prolonged and appeared driven predominantly by patient-level and transfer delays. Public education and systems-level changes will be integral to STEMI care during the second wave of COVID-19.

[COVID-19 and STEMI]

The COVID-19 pandemic had an unexpected impact on cardiovascular emergencies, particularly STEMI. The France PCI registry and other studies around the world have highlighted a significant decrease in myocardial infarctions arriving at hospital. This decrease is mainly related to patients' fear of coming to the hospital and being contaminated. Although the STEMI revascularisation time targets (<120min) are often difficult to achieve in normal times, they were almost impossible to achieve in periods of lockdown because of the many obstacles. Longer delays and longer total ischemic time have led to excess mortality, especially in the regions most affected by the epidemic. Recommendations for the management of STEMI during the COVID-19 period have thus been issued by the scientific societies. STEMI in patients with COVID-19 often have an uncommon clinical presentation, and the absence of coronary obstruction on angiography is frequent. Their prognosis is very poor. Only public information campaigns and an organisation adapted to the management of coronary emergencies during epidemics can try to limit their effects and avoid aggravating an already fragile health situation in the future.