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Bello-Chavolla OY, Antonio-Villa NE, Fermín-Martínez CA, Fernández-Chirino L, Vargas-Vázquez A, Ramírez-García D, Basile-Alvarez MR, Hoyos-Lázaro AE, Carrillo-Larco RM, Wexler DJ, Manne-Goehler J, Seiglie JA. Diabetes-Related Excess Mortality in Mexico: A Comparative Analysis of National Death Registries Between 2017-2019 and 2020. Diabetes Care 2022; 45:2957-2966. [PMID: 36286591 PMCID: PMC7613876 DOI: 10.2337/dc22-0616] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2022] [Accepted: 09/27/2022] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To estimate diabetes-related mortality in Mexico in 2020 compared with 2017-2019 after the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This retrospective, state-level study used national death registries of Mexican adults aged ≥20 years for the 2017-2020 period. Diabetes-related death was defined using ICD-10 codes listing diabetes as the primary cause of death, excluding certificates with COVID-19 as the primary cause of death. Spatial and negative binomial regression models were used to characterize the geographic distribution and sociodemographic and epidemiologic correlates of diabetes-related excess mortality, estimated as increases in diabetes-related mortality in 2020 compared with average 2017-2019 rates. RESULTS We identified 148,437 diabetes-related deaths in 2020 (177 per 100,000 inhabitants) vs. an average of 101,496 deaths in 2017-2019 (125 per 100,000 inhabitants). In-hospital diabetes-related deaths decreased by 17.8% in 2020 versus 2017-2019, whereas out-of-hospital deaths increased by 89.4%. Most deaths were attributable to type 2 diabetes (130 per 100,000 inhabitants). Compared with 2018-2019 data, hyperglycemic hyperosmolar state and diabetic ketoacidosis were the two contributing causes with the highest increase in mortality (128% and 116% increase, respectively). Diabetes-related excess mortality clustered in southern Mexico and was highest in states with higher social lag, rates of COVID-19 hospitalization, and prevalence of HbA1c ≥7.5%. CONCLUSIONS Diabetes-related deaths increased among Mexican adults by 41.6% in 2020 after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, occurred disproportionately outside the hospital, and were largely attributable to type 2 diabetes and hyperglycemic emergencies. Disruptions in diabetes care and strained hospital capacity may have contributed to diabetes-related excess mortality in Mexico during 2020.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Neftali Eduardo Antonio-Villa
- Research Division, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico
- MD/PhD (PECEM) Program, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Carlos A. Fermín-Martínez
- Research Division, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico
- MD/PhD (PECEM) Program, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Luisa Fernández-Chirino
- Research Division, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico
- Facultad de Química, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Arsenio Vargas-Vázquez
- MD/PhD (PECEM) Program, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Daniel Ramírez-García
- Research Division, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico
- Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Martín Roberto Basile-Alvarez
- Research Division, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico
- Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Ana Elena Hoyos-Lázaro
- Research Division, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico
- Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Rodrigo M. Carrillo-Larco
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, U.K
- CRONICAS Centre of Excellence in Chronic Diseases, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Deborah J. Wexler
- Diabetes Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA
- Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA
| | - Jennifer Manne-Goehler
- Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
| | - Jacqueline A. Seiglie
- Diabetes Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA
- Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA
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