Performance of elevated PT/INR as a risk factor for re-bleeding after band ligation in patients with acute variceal hemorrhage

The prognostic evaluation of ALBI score in endoscopic treatment of esophagogastric varices hemorrhage in liver cirrhosis

To analyze the independent risk factors for recurrent bleeding and death within 1 year after endoscopic treatment of esophagogastric varices hemorrhage (EGVB) in patients with liver cirrhosis, and to validate the predictive value of ALBI score for recurrent bleeding and death within 1 year after endoscopic treatment of EGVB in patients with liver cirrhosis. A total of 338 patients with EGVB who received endoscopic treatment for the first time in the Department of Gastroenterology, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from January 1, 2016 to March 1, 2020 were selected. A database was established to analyze the patients' demographic data, surgical variables and postoperative outcomes. All patients were contacted and followed up to verify the predictive value of ALBI score for recurrent bleeding and mortality. 130 patients had rebleeding within 1 year after surgery (38.5%). 66 patients died within 1 year after surgery (19.5%). Patients with ALBI grade 3 had significantly higher rebleeding and mortality rates than those with grades 1 and 2. The AUC was used to compare the predictive value of the four scores for rebleeding and mortality within one year after endoscopic surgery. Both ALBI scores had the largest AUC. The ALBI score has certain predictive value for rebleeding and mortality within 1 year after endoscopic therapy in patients with cirrhotic EGVB.

Development and validation of a prediction model for the prolonged length of stay in Chinese patients with lower extremity atherosclerotic disease: a retrospective study

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to develop and internally validate a prediction model, which takes account of multivariable and comprehensive factors to predict the prolonged length of stay (LOS) in patients with lower extremity atherosclerotic disease (LEAD).

DESIGN

This is a retrospective study.

SETTING

China.

PARTICIPANTS, PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

Data of 1694 patients with LEAD from a retrospective cohort study between January 2014 and November 2021 were analysed. We selected nine variables and created the prediction model using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model after dividing the dataset into training and test sets in a 7:3 ratio. Prediction model performance was evaluated by calibration, discrimination and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The effectiveness of clinical utility was estimated using decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

LASSO regression analysis identified age, gender, systolic blood pressure, Fontaine classification, lesion site, surgery, C reactive protein, prothrombin time international normalised ratio and fibrinogen as significant predictors for predicting prolonged LOS in patients with LEAD. In the training set, the prediction model showed good discrimination using a 500-bootstrap analysis and good calibration with an area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.750. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test for the training set had a p value of 0.354. The decision curve analysis showed that using the prediction model both in training and tests contributes to clinical value.

CONCLUSION

Our prediction model is a valuable tool using easily and routinely obtained clinical variables that could be used to predict prolonged LOS in patients with LEAD and help to better manage these patients in routine clinical practice.