Capture–recapture estimates of the local and national prevalence of problem drug use in Scotland

Prevalence of Spinal Cord Injury in Iran: A 3-Source Capture-Recapture Study

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic data of spinal cord injured (SCI) patients are necessary for prevention policymaking and improvement of social and healthcare support to patients. This study was designed to estimate the prevalence of traumatic and non-traumatic SCI in Iran in a three-source capture-recapture study.

METHODS

Three organizations, which provide supports to SCI patients were identified. Demographic data of patients in each organization was obtained. Datasets were formed and matching data were found. Matched data were incorporated into STATA 12 for log linear analyses. Results of sensitivity analyses were used to estimate total number of SCI patients in Iran. Veterans of Iraq-Iran conflict were added as separate data source to final results.

RESULTS

The prevalence of traumatic and non-traumatic SCI patients is 296.87 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 292.04-302.48) per million in Tehran and Alborz provinces. The prevalence of SCI in Iran is an estimated 318.45 (95% CI: 312.98-324.54) per million.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of SCI in Iran is among the lowest figures reported in the literature. The supporting organizations in Iran do not have details about the cause, level and severity of SCI patients. A national study to register SCI patients' data is needed.

The hidden population: Some methodological issues about estimation of problematic drug use

Aim

This article analyses and discusses the estimation of serious or problematic drug use through an empirical example based on a local Swedish study in Gothenburg.

Methods and Data

This was a case-finding study with questionnaires directed at organisations which have contact with the target group. The material was supplemented with information from the two documentation systems DOK and ASI. A total of 2,148 reports were collected. Health care data of 1,096 individuals was also collected for analysis with the truncated Poisson method. Analyses with capture-recapture or truncated Poisson were conducted to calculate the size of the hidden population.

Results

The statistical analyses resulted in variable numbers for the hidden population, and the total prevalence of serious drug abuse in Gothenburg is estimated to be between 2,200 and 4,400 people.

Conclusion

The study shows that estimation of the presence and prevalence of problematic drug abuse involves many methodological difficulties and challenges. The significant variation of the size of the hidden population presented in the study raises doubts about the reliability and validity of the different methods. The methods are clearly sensitive to the importance of fulfilling the different basic assumptions.

Drug-related deaths in France in 2007: estimates and implications

Compared with other European countries, France's low number of drug use-related deaths may appear enviable. Previous studies have suggested significant underreporting. The three official records listing drug-related deaths in France in 2007 were cross-checked. Different capture-recapture techniques were applied. The estimated numbers of drug-related deaths differ from the official figures. Different explanations and proposals to improve the recordings are consequently discussed. However, there are doubts as to the reliability of at least one of the records and the consequent accuracy of the proportion of overlapping cases. Estimates should be handled with caution and interpreted as upper bounds.

Barriers to the provision of needle-exchange services: a qualitative study in community pharmacies

Objective

To investigate the attitudes of pharmacists to the provision of needle-exchange services (NES) at community pharmacies and, if barriers exist, explore means by which they may be overcome.

Setting

Twenty-one community pharmacies across Grampian in North East Scotland during May and June 2005.

Method

Semi-structured face-to-face interviews conducted with 24 pharmacists.

Key findings

Newly identified barriers included the negative influence of security staff, a local policy against NES provision and a lack of awareness of other services available for drug users.

Conclusion

Training packages for all health professionals working with drug users and awareness training for security staff are required if the identified barriers are to be overcome. ‘Hands-on’ training and experience of NES for pharmacists and their staff should be available. Suggestions made by pharmacists for NES provision in general practitioner surgeries or community hospitals and the development of automated services should be considered.

A note on heroin epidemics

We show that the steady states of the White and Comiskey [E. White, C. Comiskey, Heroin epidemics, treatment and ODE modelling, Math. Biosci. 208 (2007) 312-324.] model of heroin epidemics are stable.