A novel reliability-based regression model for medical modeling and forecasting

Etemadi regression in chemometrics: Reliability-based procedures for modeling and forecasting

The creation of predictive models with a high degree of generalizability in chemical analysis and process optimization is of paramount importance. Nonetheless, formulating a prediction model based on collected data from chemical measurements that maximize quantitative generalizability remains a challenging task for chemometrics experts. To tackle this challenge, a range of forecasting models with varying characteristics, structures, and capabilities has been developed, utilizing either accuracy-based or reliability-based modeling strategies. While the majority of models follow the accuracy-based approach, a recently proposed reliability-based approach, known as the Etemadi approach, has shown impressive performance across various scientific fields. The Etemadi models were constructed through a reliability-based parameter estimation process in such a manner that maximizes the models' reliability. However, the foundation of modeling procedures for chemometrics purposes is built upon the assumption that high generalizability in inaccessible/test data is achieved through the accuracy-based training procedure in which errors in available historical/training data are minimized. After conducting a thorough review of the current literature, we have found that none of the forecasting models for chemometrics purposes incorporate reliability into their modeling procedures. Given the dynamic and highly sensitive nature of chemistry experiments and processes, implementing a reliable model that controls performance criteria variation is a promising strategy for achieving stable and robust forecasts. To address this research gap, this paper introduces several key innovations, which can be highlighted as follows: (1) Proposing a general design structure based on a new optimal reliability-based parameter estimation process. (2) Introducing a novel risk-based modeling strategy that minimizes the performance variation of models implemented under different conditions in chemical laboratory experiments, to generate a more generalizable model for diverse applications in chemometrics. (3) Specifying the degree of influence that each reliability and accuracy factor has in enhancing the generalizability and uncertainty modeling of chemometric models. Empirical evidence confirms the effectiveness and superior performance of reliability-based models compared to accuracy-based models in 78.95% of the cases across various fields, including Pharmacology, Biochemistry, Agrochemical, Geochemical, Biological, Pollutants, Physicochemical Properties, and Gases Experiment. Furthermore, the study's findings demonstrate that the reliability-based modeling approach outperforms the accuracy-based strategy in terms of MAE, MSE, ARV, and RMSE by an average of 4.697%, 5.646%, 5.646%, and 4.342%, respectively. It is also statistically proven that reliability has a more significant impact on improving the generalizability of chemometric models than accuracy. This emphasizes the importance of including reliability as a crucial factor in chemometrics modeling, a consideration that has been overlooked in traditional modeling processes. Consequently, reliability-based modeling approaches can be regarded as a viable alternative to conventional accuracy-based modeling methods for chemical modeling purposes.

A novel reliability-based regression model to analyze and forecast the severity of COVID-19 patients

Background

Coronavirus outbreak (SARS-CoV-2) has become a serious threat to human society all around the world. Due to the rapid rate of disease outbreaks and the severe shortages of medical resources, predicting COVID-19 disease severity continues to be a challenge for healthcare systems. Accurate prediction of severe patients plays a vital role in determining treatment priorities, effective management of medical facilities, and reducing the number of deaths. Various methods have been used in the literature to predict the severity prognosis of COVID-19 patients. Despite the different appearance of the methods, they all aim to achieve generalizable results by increasing the accuracy and reducing the errors of predictions. In other words, accuracy is considered the only effective factor in the generalizability of models. In addition to accuracy, reliability and consistency of results are other critical factors that must be considered to yield generalizable medical predictions. Since the role of reliability in medical decisions is significant, upgrading reliable medical data-driven models requires more attention.

Methods

This paper presents a new modeling technique to specify and maximize the reliability of results in predicting the severity prognosis of COVID-19 patients. We use the well-known classic regression as the basic model to implement our proposed procedure on it. To assess the performance of the proposed model, it has been applied to predict the severity prognosis of COVID-19 by using a dataset including clinical information of 46 COVID-19 patients. The dataset consists of two types of patients’ outcomes including mild (discharge) and severe (ICU or death). To measure the efficiency of the proposed model, we compare the accuracy of the proposed model to the classic regression model.

Results

The proposed reliability-based regression model, by achieving 98.6% sensitivity, 88.2% specificity, and 93.10% accuracy, has better performance than classic accuracy-based regression model with 95.7% sensitivity, 85.5% specificity, and 90.3% accuracy. Also, graphical analysis of ROC curve showed AUC 0.93 (95% CI 0.88–0.98) and AUC 0.90 (95% CI 0.85–0.96) for classic regression models, respectively.

Conclusions

Maximizing reliability in the medical forecasting models can lead to more generalizable and accurate results. The competitive results indicate that the proposed reliability-based regression model has higher performance in predicting the deterioration of COVID-19 patients compared to the classic accuracy-based regression model. The proposed framework can be used as a suitable alternative for the traditional regression method to improve the decision-making and triage processes of COVID-19 patients.