2
|
Fadda LA, Osorio-Olvera L, Ibarra-Juárez LA, Soberón J, Lira-Noriega A. Predicting the dispersal and invasion dynamics of ambrosia beetles through demographic reconstruction and process-explicit modeling. Sci Rep 2024; 14:7561. [PMID: 38555364 PMCID: PMC10981740 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-57590-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2023] [Accepted: 03/20/2024] [Indexed: 04/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Evaluating potential routes of invasion of pathogens and vectors of sanitary importance is essential for planning and decision-making at multiple scales. An effective tool are process-explicit models that allow coupling environmental, demographic and dispersal information to evaluate population growth and range dynamics as a function of the abiotic conditions in a region. In this work we simulate multiple dispersal/invasion routes in Mexico that could be taken by ambrosia beetles and a specific symbiont, Harringtonia lauricola, responsible for a severe epiphytic of Lauraceae in North America. We used Xyleborus bispinatus Eichhoff 1868 as a study subject and estimated its demography in the laboratory in a temperature gradient (17, 20, 26, 29, 35 °C), which we then used to parameterize a process-based model to estimate its metapopulation dynamics. The maximum intrinsic growth rate of X. bispinatus is 0.13 with a thermal optimum of 26.2 °C. The models suggest important regions for the establishment and dispersal the states of Veracruz, Chiapas and Oaxaca (high host and secondary vectors diversity), the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (connectivity region), and Michoacán and Jalisco (important avocado plantations). The use of hybrid process-based models is a promising tool to refine the predictions applied to the study of biological invasions and species distributions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lucas A Fadda
- Red de Estudios Moleculares Avanzados, Instituto de Ecología A.C., Carretera antigua a Coatepec 351, El Haya, C. P. 91073, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico
| | - Luis Osorio-Olvera
- Laboratorio de Ecoinformática de la Biodiversidad, Departamento de Ecología de la Biodiversidad, Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, México.
- Laboratorio Nacional Conahcyt de Biología del Cambio Climático, CONAHCyT, Ciudad de México, México.
| | - Luis A Ibarra-Juárez
- Instituto de Ecología A.C., Red de Estudios Moleculares Avanzados, Carretera Antigua a Coatepec 351, El Haya, Xalapa, Veracruz, México
| | - Jorge Soberón
- Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, 66045, USA
| | - Andrés Lira-Noriega
- Instituto de Ecología A.C., Red de Estudios Moleculares Avanzados, Carretera Antigua a Coatepec 351, El Haya, Xalapa, Veracruz, México.
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Mkala EM, Mwanzia V, Nzei J, Oluoch WA, Ngarega BK, Wanga VO, Oulo MA, Ngarega BK, Munyao F, Kilingo FM, Rono P, Waswa EN, Mutinda ES, Ochieng CO, Mwachala G, Hu GW, Wang QF, Katunge JK, Victoire CI. Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the endangered endemic annonaceae species in east africa. Heliyon 2023; 9:e17405. [PMID: 37416643 PMCID: PMC10320037 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17405] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2023] [Revised: 06/15/2023] [Accepted: 06/15/2023] [Indexed: 07/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Globally, endemic species and natural habitats have been significantly impacted by climate change, and further considerable impacts are predicted. Therefore, understanding how endemic species are impacted by climate change can aid in advancing the necessary conservation initiatives. The use of niche modeling is becoming a popular topic in biological conservation to forecast changes in species distributions under various climate change scenarios. This study used the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1 (ACCESS-CM2) general circulation model of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for the four threatened Annonaceae species endemic to East Africa (EA), to determine the impact of climate change on their suitable habitat in the years 2050 (average for 2041-2060) and 2070 (average for 2061-2080). Two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) SSP370 and SSP585 were used to project the contraction and expansion of suitable habitats for Uvariodendron kirkii, Uvaria kirkii, Uvariodendron dzomboense and Asteranthe asterias endemic to Kenya and Tanzania in EA. The current distribution for all four species is highly influenced by precipitation, temperature, and environmental factors (population, potential evapotranspiration, and aridity index). Although the loss of the original suitable habitat is anticipated to be significant, appropriate habitat expansion and contraction are projections for all species. More than 70% and 40% of the original habitats of Uvariodendron dzombense and Uvariodendron kirkii are predicted to be destroyed by climate change, respectively. Based on our research, we suggest that areas that are expected to shrink owing to climate change be classified as important protection zones for the preservation of Annonaceae species.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Elijah Mbandi Mkala
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Virginia Mwanzia
- Lukenya University, Athi River, P.O Box 90-90128, Mtito Andei, Kenya
| | - Johh Nzei
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Wyclife Agumba Oluoch
- Center for Development Research – ZEF, University of Bonn, Genscherallee 3, 53113, Bonn, Germany
| | - Boniface K. Ngarega
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
- Centre for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, 666303, China
| | - Vincent Okello Wanga
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Milicent Akinyi Oulo
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Boniface K. Ngarega
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
- Centre for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, 666303, China
| | - Fredrick Munyao
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Flory Mkangombe Kilingo
- UNEP-TONGJI Institute of Environmental Science and Sustainable Development (IESD), Tongji University, Siping Road 1239, Shanghai, 200092, PR China
| | - Penninah Rono
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Emmanuel Nyongesa Waswa
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Elizabeth Syowai Mutinda
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Clintone Onyango Ochieng
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Geoffrey Mwachala
- East African Herbarium, National Museums of Kenya, P. O. Box 451660-0100, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Guang-Wan Hu
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
| | - Qing-Feng Wang
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
| | - Jacinta Kaweze Katunge
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Calmina Izabayo Victoire
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| |
Collapse
|