Trend and seasonality of community-acquired Escherichia coli antimicrobial resistance and its dynamic relationship with antimicrobial use assessed by ARIMA models

Long-term forecast for antibacterial drug consumption in Germany using ARIMA models

The increasing supply shortages of antibacterial drugs presents significant challenges to public health in Germany. This study aims to predict the future consumption of the ten most prescribed antibacterial drugs in Germany up to 2040 using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models, based on historical prescription data. This analysis also evaluates the plausibility of the forecasts. Our findings represent one of the first long-term national forecasts for antibacterial drug consumption. ARIMA(0,1,0), a random walk model with drift, is the best-fitting model to capture trends across all antibacterial drugs. While more complex models offer greater detail, they seem less suitable for long-term forecasting. In a short-term forecast of 5 and 10 years, predictions between significant models vary very little. Predictions indicate increasing DDD-prescriptions for amoxicillin, cefuroxime axetil, amoxicillin clavulanic acid, clindamycin, azithromycin, nitrofurantoin, and ciprofloxacin, while declines are forecasted for doxycycline, phenoxymethylpenicillin, and sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim. The reliability of the predictions varies. Forecasts for azithromycin, phenoxymethylpenicillin, and sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim are likely accurate, whereas uncertainties exist for doxycycline, amoxicillin clavulanic acid, nitrofurantoin, and ciprofloxacin, though general trends appear valid. Potential discrepancies may arise in the predictions for amoxicillin, cefuroxime axetil, and clindamycin. These forecasts highlight the urgent need for proactive healthcare planning to prevent future shortages, a problem underscored by recent supply disruptions in Germany. Future research should extend this analysis to the development of bacterial resistance and other frequently used drug classes.

Analysis of Drug-Resistant Bacteria Seasonality in Japan Using Financial Time Series Analysis Method: A Nationwide Longitudinal Study

Introduction: Bacterial infections exhibit seasonal variation, particularly in respiratory pathogens; however, whether similar trends exist for bacterial infections and resistance in Japan is unclear. This study examined seasonal and annual patterns of bacterial isolation rates and antimicrobial resistance in Japanese hospitals, utilizing data from the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare's Nosocomial Infection Control Surveillance Project (JANIS) between 2014 and 2020. Methods: Data from JANIS included isolation rates and antimicrobial resistance for four bacterial species: Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. We modeled seasonal and annual trends using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) model, controlling for hospital size. Analyses examined seasonal and annual trends in isolation rates and resistance patterns, including methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA), multidrug-resistant P. aeruginosa (MDRP), and carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa (CRPA), among others. Results: The isolation rate of S. aureus decreased annually, with the most pronounced decline observed from the second to the fourth quarters, particularly in smaller hospitals. The isolation rates of E. coli and K. pneumoniae increased annually, with significant seasonal peaks in the third and fourth quarters. Antimicrobial resistance showed annual declines for MRSA, MDRP, and CRPA, particularly in smaller hospitals. However, resistance rates for third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E. coli and K. pneumoniae increased during the study period. Conclusion: This study demonstrates the distinct seasonal and annual trends in bacterial isolation and antimicrobial resistance in Japan. Smaller hospitals showed higher resistance rates, likely because of limited antimicrobial stewardship resources, underscoring the need for targeted interventions in these settings. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring seasonal patterns in bacterial infections and resistance to inform effective infection control and antimicrobial stewardship strategies.

Relationship between Antibiotic Consumption and Resistance: A Systematic Review

Background

Unreserved use of antibiotics exerted selective pressure on susceptible bacteria, resulting in the survival of resistant strains. Despite this, the relationship between antibiotic resistance (ABR) and antibiotic consumption (ABC) is rarely studied. This systematic review aims to review the relationship between ABC and ABR from 2016 to 2022.

Methods

Articles published over 7 years (2016-2022) were searched from December 23 to 31, 2022. The search strategy was developed by using keywords for ABC and ABR. From 3367 articles, 58 eligible articles were included in the final review.

Results

The pooled ABC was 948017.9 DPDs and 4108.6 DIDs where over 70% of antibiotics were from the Watch and Reserve category based on the WHO AWaRe classification. The average pooled prevalence of ABR was 38.4%. Enterococcus faecium (59.4%), A. baumannii (52.6%), and P. aeruginosa (48.6%) were the most common antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Cephalosporins (76.8%), penicillin (58.3%), and aminoglycosides (52%) were commonly involved antibiotics in ABR. The positive correlation between ABR and consumption accounted for 311 (81%). The correlation between ABR P. aeruginosa and ABC accounted for 87 (22.7%), followed by 78 (20.3%) and 77 (20.1%) for ABR E. coli and K. pneumoniae with ABCs, respectively. Consumption of carbapenems and fluoroquinolones was most commonly correlated with resistance rates of P. aeruginosa, K. pneumoniae, E. coli, and A. baumannii.

Conclusion

There is a positive correlation between ABC and the rate of ABR. The review also revealed a cross-resistance between the consumption of different antibiotics and ABR. Optimizing antibiotic therapy and reducing unnecessary ABC will prevent the emergence and spread of ABR. Thus, advocating the implementation of stewardship programs plays a pivotal role in containing ABR.

Trends, seasonality and the association between outpatient antibiotic use and antimicrobial resistance among urinary bacteria in the Netherlands

OBJECTIVES

To determine trends, seasonality and the association between community antibiotic use and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae in urinary tract infections.

METHODS

We analysed Dutch national databases from January 2008 to December 2016 regarding antibiotic use and AMR for nitrofurantoin, trimethoprim, fosfomycin and ciprofloxacin. Antibiotic use was expressed as DDD/1000 inhabitant-days (DID) and AMR was expressed as the percentage of resistance from total tested isolates. Temporal trends and seasonality were analysed with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Each antibiotic use-resistance combination was cross-correlated with a linear regression of the ARIMA residuals.

RESULTS

The trends of DID increased for ciprofloxacin, fosfomycin and nitrofurantoin, but decreased for trimethoprim. Similar trends were found in E. coli and K. pneumoniae resistance to the same antibiotics, except for K. pneumoniae resistance to ciprofloxacin, which decreased. Resistance levels peaked in winter/spring, whereas antibiotic use peaked in summer/autumn. In univariate analysis, the strongest and most significant cross-correlations were approximately 0.20, and had a time delay of 3-6 months between changes in antibiotic use and changes in resistance. In multivariate analysis, significant effects of nitrofurantoin use and ciprofloxacin use on resistance to these antibiotics were found in E. coli and K. pneumoniae, respectively. There was a significant association of nitrofurantoin use with trimethoprim resistance in K. pneumoniae after adjusting for trimethoprim use.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a relatively low use of antibiotics and resistance levels over a 9 year period. Although the correlations were weak, variations in antibiotic use for these four antibiotics were associated with subsequent variations in AMR in urinary pathogens.

Longitudinal Study of the Drug Resistance in Klebsiella pneumoniae of a Tertiary Hospital, China: Phenotypic Epidemiology Analysis (2013-2018)

Purpose

Multi-drug resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (MDR KP) is spreading worldwide and has posed a huge medical burden to public health. However, studies on drug resistance surveillance of KP, especially MDR KP, with a large longitudinal sample size in a tertiary hospital are rare. This study aims to investigate phenotypic epidemiology characteristics of 4128 KP isolates in a Chinese tertiary hospital covering a period of 5 years.

Methods

All the KP clinical isolates were retrospectively collected from a tertiary hospital in Hunan province of China from Jan 5, 2013 to Jul 24, 2018. All the isolates were identified by MALDI-TOF MS analysis. Twenty-four antimicrobial agents were tested by antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Fisher exact test and logistic regression were used to analyze the association between clinical factors and antimicrobial non-susceptibility for seven second-choice antimicrobials.

Results

A total of 4128 KP isolates were collected in our study. The non-susceptible rates (NSRs) to ertapenem, imipenem and tigecycline increased considerably from 2013 to 2018 (13.6% to 28.6%, 10.1% to 28.9%, 10.8% to 46.5%, respectively). Amikacin presents the lowest NSR among 3 aminoglycosides (3.8–22.8%). The multi-drug NSRs among KP isolates to second-choice antimicrobials (88.6–100%) were higher than to all drugs (68.0%). The NSRs varied significantly among departments and sample sources. Higher ETP/IPM/AK NSRs (39.8/39.7/30.6%) were observed in Intensive Care Unit, and ETP/IPM non-susceptible isolates tended to distribute in cerebrospinal fluid. From 2015 to 2017, the NSRs of ETP, IPM, and AK showed an opposite trend of seasonal fluctuations to SXT.

Conclusion

Higher multi-drug resistance (MDR) rates were observed in KP isolates to second-choice antimicrobials than to others, among which MDR rates to carbapenems or AK are the highest. A unique pattern of MIC and time distributions of MDR were observed. Clinical factors including gender were correlated with MDR rates of KP. Isolates in ICU and CSF showed higher NSRs in carbapenems which should be paid more attention to, and temporal distribution of NSRs was observed.

Time series analysis of antibacterial usage and bacterial resistance in China: observations from a tertiary hospital from 2014 to 2018

PURPOSE

To describe trends and correlation between antibacterial exposure and bacterial resistance from hospitalized patients in a hospital in southern China.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study used hospital-wide data regarding antimicrobial resistance and consumption between January 1, 2014 and December 31, 2018. Antibacterial consumption was expressed as antimicrobial use density (AUD). The changes in trends and associations between antibacterial utilization and resistance were analyzed using linear regression and time series analysis.

RESULTS

The total AUD of all antimicrobials decreased year by year (50.66 in 2014 vs 44.28 in 2018, P=0.03). The annual use of antimicrobials, such as penicillins, monobactams, aminoglycosides, macrolides, and lincosamides, significantly decreased (P<0.05), while the annual use of quinolones and tetracyclines significantly increased (P<0.05). Among the top ten isolated bacteria, antimicrobial resistance trends of Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Candida albicans, Staphylococcus aureus, and Staphylococcus epidermidis significantly decreased (P<0.05). Significant positive correlation was found between AUD of carbapenems and resistance rate of Acinetobacter baumannii to imipenem (β=32.87, P<0.01), as well as the correlation between AUD of quinolones and resistance rate of Enterococcus faecium to levofloxacin (β=104.40, P<0.01).

CONCLUSION

The consumption of antibiotics and antibiotic resistance has been significantly improved in this tertiary hospital. Additionally, the efforts of China's antibiotic management may be suggested by the relationship between indicated antibiotic resistance and consumption. However, overall AUD levels and poor control of the use of antibiotics, such as quinolones and tetracyclines, still require strengthened management.