A PET-based nomogram for oropharyngeal cancers

Prognostic Utility of Neck Lymph Node-to-Primary Tumor Standardized Uptake Value Ratio in Oral Cavity Cancer

We investigated the prognostic utility of preoperative neck lymph node-to-primary tumor maximum standardized uptake value ratios (NTRs) in oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 141 consecutive patients who were diagnosed as having OSCC and had received fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography within 2 weeks prior to radical surgery between 2009 and 2018. To determine the optimal NTR cutoff, receiver operating characteristic analysis for overall survival (OS) was executed. The NTR's prognostic value for disease-free survival (DFS) and OS were determined through Cox proportional hazards analysis and the Kaplan-Meier method. We determined the median (range) follow-up duration to be 35.2 (2.1-122.4) months. The optimal NTR cutoff was 0.273, and patients with a higher NTR (≥0.273) exhibited significantly worse DFS and OS (p = 0.010 and 0.003, respectively). A higher NTR (≥0.273) predicted poorer DFS (hazard ratio: 2.696, p = 0.008) and OS (hazard ratio: 4.865, p = 0.003) in multivariable analysis. We created a nomogram on the basis of the NTR, and it could accurately predict OS (concordance index: 0.774). Preoperative NTRs may be a useful prognostic biomarker for DFS and OS in patients with OSCC who have undergone surgery. NTR-based nomograms may also be helpful prognostic tools in clinical trials.

Prognostic and predictive values of baseline and mid-treatment FDG-PET in oropharyngeal carcinoma treated with primary definitive (chemo)radiation and impact of HPV status: review of current literature and emerging roles

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

This study provides a review of the literature assessing whether semiquantitative PET parameters acquired at baseline and/or during definitive (chemo)radiotherapy ("prePET" and "iPET") can predict survival outcomes in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPC), and the impact of human papilloma virus (HPV) status.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A literature search was carried out using PubMed and Embase between 2001 to 2021 in accordance with PRISMA.

RESULTS

The analysis included 22 FDG-PET/CT studies^1-22, 19 pre-PET and 3 both pre-PET and iPET^14,18,20,. The analysis involved 2646 patients, of which 1483 are HPV-positive (17 studies: 10 mixed and 7 HPV-positive only), 589 are HPV-negative, and 574 have unknown HPV status. Eighteen studies found significant correlations of survival outcomes with pre-PET parameters, most commonly primary or "Total" (combined primary and nodal) metabolic tumour volume and/or total lesional glycolysis. Two studies could not establish significant correlations and both employed SUVmax only. Two studies also could not establish significant correlations when taking into account of the HPV-positive population only. Because of the heterogeneity and lack of standardized methodology, no conclusions on optimal cut-off values can be drawn. Ten studies specifically evaluated HPV-positive patients: five showed positive correlation of pre-PET parameters and survival outcomes, but four of these studies did not include advanced T or N staging in multivariate analysis^1,6,15,22, and two studies only showed positive correlations after excluding high risk patients with smoking history⁷ or adverse CT features²². Two studies found that prePET parameters predicted treatment outcomes only in HPV-negative but not HPV-positive patients^10,16. Two studies found that iPET parameters could predict outcomes in HPV-positive patients but not prePET parameters^14,18.

CONCLUSION

The current literature supports high pre-treatment metabolic burden prior to definitive (chemo)radiotherapy can predict poor treatment outcomes for HPV-negative OPC patients. Evidence is conflicting and currently does not support correlation in HPV-positive patients.

Current Status of 68Ga-Pentixafor in Solid Tumours

Chemokine receptor CXCR4 is overexpressed in neoplasms and its expression is related to tumour invasion, metastasis and aggressiveness. ⁶⁸Ga-Pentixafor is used to non-invasively image the expression of CXCR4 in tumours and has been widely used in haematological malignancies. Recent evidence shows that therapies targeting CXCR4 can increase the chemosensitivity of the tumour as well as inhibit tumour metastasis and aggressiveness. ⁶⁸Ga-Pentixafor has shown promise as an elegant radiotracer to aid in the selection of patients whose tumours demonstrate CXCR4 overexpression and who therefore may benefit from novel therapies targeting CXCR4. In addition, its therapeutic partners ¹⁷⁷Lu- and ⁹⁰Y-Pentixather have been investigated in the treatment of patients with advanced haematological malignancies, and initial studies have shown a good treatment response in metabolically active lesions. ⁶⁸Ga-Pentixafor in solid tumours complements ¹⁸F-FDG by providing prognostic information and selecting patients who may benefit from therapies targeting CXCR4. This review summarises the available literature on the potential applications of ⁶⁸Ga-Pentixafor in solid tumours.

18F-FDG PET/CT-Based Prognostic Survival Model After Surgery for Head and Neck Cancer

The aims of this multicenter study were to identify clinical and preoperative PET/CT parameters predicting overall survival (OS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) in a cohort of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma patients treated with surgery, to generate a prognostic model of OS and DMFS, and to validate this prognostic model with an independent cohort. Methods: A total of 382 consecutive patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, divided into training (n = 318) and validation (n = 64) cohorts, were retrospectively included. The following PET/CT parameters were analyzed: clinical parameters, SUV_max, SUV_mean, metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis, and distance parameters for the primary tumor and lymph nodes defined by 2 segmentation methods (relative SUV_max threshold and absolute SUV threshold). Cox analyses were performed for OS and DMFS in the training cohort. The concordance index (c-index) was used to identify highly prognostic parameters. These prognostic parameters were externally tested in the validation cohort. Results: In multivariable analysis, the significant parameters for OS were T stage and nodal MTV, with a c-index of 0.64 (P < 0.001). For DMFS, the significant parameters were T stage, nodal MTV, and maximal tumor-node distance, with a c-index of 0.76 (P < 0.001). These combinations of parameters were externally validated, with c-indices of 0.63 (P < 0.001) and 0.71 (P < 0.001) for OS and DMFS, respectively. Conclusion: The nodal MTV associated with the maximal tumor-node distance was significantly correlated with the risk of DMFS. Moreover, this parameter, in addition to clinical parameters, was associated with a higher risk of death. These prognostic factors may be used to tailor individualized treatment.

Utility and limitations of metabolic parameters in head and neck cancer: finding a practical segmentation method

PURPOSE

Although metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) have shown good prognostic value in head and neck cancer (HNC), there are still many issues to resolve before their potential application in standard clinical practice. The purpose of this study was to compare the discrimination ability of two relevant segmentation methods in HNC and to evaluate the potential benefit of adding lymph nodes' metabolism (LNM) to the measurements.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed a recently published database of 62 patients with HNC treated with chemoradiotherapy. MTV and TLG were measured using an absolute threshold of SUV2.5. Comparison analysis with previously published background-level threshold (BLT) results was done through Concordance index (C-index) in eight prognostic models.

RESULTS

BLT obtained better C-index values in five out of the eight models. The addition of LNM improved C-index values in six of the prognostic models.

CONCLUSION

We found a potential benefit in adding LNM to the main tumor measurements, as well as in using a BLT for MTV segmentation compared to the most commonly used SUV2.5 threshold. Despite its limitations, this study suggests a practical and simple manner to use these parameters in standard clinical practice, aiming to help elaborate a general consensus.

Impact of pretreatment second look 18FDG-PET/CT on stage and treatment changes in head and neck cancer

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The potential value of a second look PET/CT prior to radiotherapy was investigated.

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New lymph node metastases were discovered in half of the patients.

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Progression of the primary tumor and distant metastases were also observed.

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This strategy led to changes in treatment planning in more than half of the cases.

Background

Patients diagnosed with locoregionally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (LAHNSCC) regularly undergo staging with ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT in our center. In cases of delays in radiotherapy (RT) planning CT more than 4 weeks after initial PET/CT or clinically suspected progress, PET/CT is repeated for restaging and as an RT planning reference. Our aim was to determine the impact of second-look PET/CT on stage migration, treatment change and RT planning.

Methods

Consequent treatment changes were categorized as minor and major. Minor changes were defined as PET/CT-based modifications of RT plans, e.g., the addition of anatomical compartments, changes in high- and low-risk dose levels or both. Major changes included changes from curative to palliative treatment intent and alterations of interdisciplinary treatment plans, such as the addition of induction chemotherapy, switch to primary surgery, no treatment and/or the necessity of additional diagnostic work-up resulting in the postponement or cancellation of treatment.

Results

Thirty-two newly diagnosed LAHNSCC patients who were treated between 2014 and 2018 underwent second-look PET/CT (median interval 42.5 days). Second-look PET/CT led to locoregional and distant upstaging in 3/32 and 1/32 patients, respectively. In 1/32 patients (3%), second-look PET/CT led to a palliative approach with systemic treatment. New lymph node metastases were discovered in 16 patients, 6 of whom also showed significant progression of the primary tumor, resulting in minor changes in 16 of the remaining 31 patients (52%) who were treated curatively.

Conclusion

If RT treatment planning of LAHNSCC was delayed by more than 4 weeks after initial PET/CT staging or when progression was clinically suspected, a second look at ¹⁸FDG-PET/CT was performed. This led to changes in treatment planning in more than half of the cases, which is expected to directly influence oncologic outcomes.

A critical appraisal of the clinical applicability and risk of bias of the predictive models for mortality and recurrence in patients with oropharyngeal cancer: Systematic review

The use of predictive models is becoming widespread. However, these models should be developed appropriately (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modeling Studies [CHARMS] and Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool [PROBAST] statements). Concerning mortality/recurrence in oropharyngeal cancer, we are not aware of any systematic reviews of the predictive models. We carried out a systematic review of the MEDLINE/EMBASE databases of those predictive models. In these models, we analyzed the 11 domains of the CHARMS statement and the risk of bias and applicability, using the PROBAST tool. Six papers were finally included in the systematic review and all of them presented high risk of bias and several limitations in the statistical analysis. The applicability was satisfactory in five out of six studies. None of the models could be considered ready for use in clinical practice.

Voxel-based identification of local recurrence sub-regions from pre-treatment PET/CT for locally advanced head and neck cancers

Background

Overall, 40% of patients with a locally advanced head and neck cancer (LAHNC) treated by chemoradiotherapy (CRT) present local recurrence within 2 years after the treatment. The aims of this study were to characterize voxel-wise the sub-regions where tumor recurrence appear and to predict their location from pre-treatment ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) images.

Materials and methods

Twenty-six patients with local failure after treatment were included in this study. Local recurrence volume was identified by co-registering pre-treatment and recurrent PET/CT images using a customized rigid registration algorithm. A large set of voxel-wise features were extracted from pre-treatment PET to train a random forest model allowing to predict local recurrence at the voxel level.

Results

Out of 26 expert-assessed registrations, 15 provided enough accuracy to identify recurrence volumes and were included for further analysis. Recurrence volume represented on average 23% of the initial tumor volume. The MTV with a threshold of 50% of SUVmax plus a 3D margin of 10 mm covered on average 89.8% of the recurrence and 96.9% of the initial tumor. SUV and MTV alone were not sufficient to identify the area of recurrence. Using a random forest model, 15 parameters, combining radiomics and spatial location, were identified, allowing to predict the recurrence sub-regions with a median area under the receiver operating curve of 0.71 (range 0.14–0.91).

Conclusion

As opposed to regional comparisons which do not bring enough evidence for accurate prediction of recurrence volume, a voxel-wise analysis of FDG-uptake features suggested a potential to predict recurrence with enough accuracy to consider tailoring CRT by dose escalation within likely radioresistant regions.

Personalized prognostication in head and neck cancer: A systematic review of nomograms according to the AJCC precision medicine core (PMC) criteria

BACKGROUND

The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Precision Medicine Core (PMC) has recognized the need for more personalized probabilistic predictions above the "TNM" staging system and has recently released a checklist of inclusion and exclusion criteria for evaluating prognostic models.

METHODS

A systematic review of articles in which nomograms were created for head and neck cancer (HNC) was carried out according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The AJCC PMC criteria were used to score the individual studies.

RESULTS

Forty-four studies were included in the final qualitative analysis. The mean number of inclusion criteria met was 9.3 out of 13, and the mean number of exclusion criteria met was 2.1 out of 3. Studies were generally of high quality, but no single study fulfilled all of the AJCC PMC criteria.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to utilize the AJCC checklist to comprehensively evaluate the published prognostic nomograms in HNC. Future studies should attempt to adhere to the AJCC PMC criteria. Recommendations for future research are given.

SUMMARY

The AJCC recently released a set of criteria to grade the quality of prognostic cancer models. In this study, we grade all published nomograms for head and neck cancer according to the new guidelines.

What is the prognostic impact of FDG PET in locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with concomitant chemo-radiotherapy? A systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Evidence is conflicting on the prognostic value of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The aim of our study was to determine the impact of semiquantitative and qualitative metabolic parameters on the outcome in patients managed with standard treatment for locally advanced disease.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature was conducted. A meta-analysis was performed of studies providing estimates of relative risk (RR) for the association between semiquantitative metabolic parameters and efficacy outcome measures.

RESULTS

The analysis included 25 studies, for a total of 2,223 subjects. The most frequent primary tumour site was the oropharynx (1,150/2,223 patients, 51.7%). According to the available data, the majority of patients had stage III/IV disease (1,709/1,799, 94.9%; no information available in four studies) and were treated with standard concurrent chemoradiotherapy (1,562/2,009 patients, 77.7%; only one study without available information). A total of 11, 8 and 4 independent studies provided RR estimates for the association between baseline FDG PET metrics and overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) and locoregional control (LRC), respectively. High pretreatment metabolic tumour volume (MTV) was significantly associated with a worse OS (summary RR 1.86, 95% CI 1.08-3.21), PFS (summary RR 1.81, 95% CI 1.14-2.89) and LRC (summary RR 3.49, 95% CI 1.65-7.35). Given the large heterogeneity (I2 > 50%) affecting the summary measures, no cumulative threshold for an unfavourable prognosis could be defined. No statistically significant association was found between SUVmax and any of the outcome measures.

CONCLUSION

FDG PET has prognostic relevance in the context of locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. Pretreatment MTV is the only metabolic variable with a significant impact on patient outcome. Because of the heterogeneity and the lack of standardized methodology, no definitive conclusions on optimal cut-off values can be drawn.

Development and assessment of a predictive nomogram for the progression of IgA nephropathy

The present study is to establish a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of IgA nephropathy (IgAN). Of the 869 IgAN patients, four-fifths were randomly assigned to the development cohort and one-fifth to the validation cohort. The primary outcome was a composite event of either a ≥ 50% reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), end-stage renal disease or death. The mean follow-up time was 44 months. The Cox regression model identified urinary protein excretion (1–3.5 g/d, HR 11.639, 95% CI 3.601–37.625; ≥ 3.5 g/d, HR 32.435, 95% CI 10.079–104.380), eGFR (G2, HR 5.293, 95% CI 2.011–13.932; G3, HR 15.797, 95% CI 6.584–37.905; G4, HR 34.619, 95% CI 13.887–86.301; G5, HR 217.651, 95% CI 83.807–565.248), hyperuricaemia (HR 7.031, 95% CI 4.126–11.980), mesangial proliferation (HR 36.667, 95% CI 5.098–263.711), segmental glomerulosclerosis (HR 5.122, 95% CI 3.114–8.425), tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis (T1, HR 33.351, 95% CI 7.831–142.044; T2, HR 213.888, 95% CI 51.048–896.182), crescents (C1, HR 3.123, 95% CI 1.771–5.510; C2, HR 7.353, 95% CI 3.590–15.062) and glomerulosclerosis (25–49%, HR 3.123, 95% CI 1.771–5.510; ≥ 50%, HR 14.384, 95% CI 8.813–23.479) for developing the nomogram. The C-index was 0.945 (95% CI 0.914–0.976) in both the development and validation cohorts, showing good agreement between the nomogram-predicted probability and actual free-of-progression probability. Thus, our nomogram could accurately predict the progression of IgAN patients.