Direct oral anticoagulants vs non-vitamin K antagonist in atrial fibrillation: A prospective, propensity score adjusted cohort study

Clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with DOACs in a specialized anticoagulation center: Critical appraisal of real-world data

AIMS

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) are progressively replacing vitamin K antagonists in the prevention of thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation. However, their real-world clinical outcomes appear to be contradictory, with some studies reporting fewer and others reporting higher complications than the pivotal randomized controlled trials. We present the results of a clinical model for the management of DOACs in real clinical practice and provide a review of the literature.

METHODS

The MACACOD project is an ongoing, observational, prospective, single-center study with unselected patients that focuses on rigorous DOAC selection, an educational visit, laboratory measurements, and strict follow-up.

RESULTS

A total of 1,259 patients were included. The composite incidence of major complications was 4.93% py in the whole cohort vs 4.49% py in the edoxaban cohort. The rate of all-cause mortality was 6.11% py for all DOACs vs 5.12% py for edoxaban. There weren't differences across sex or between Edoxaban reduced or standard doses. However, there were differences across ages, with a higher incidence of major bleeding complications in patients >85 years (5.13% py vs 1.69% py in <75 years).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed an incidence of serious complications of 4.93% py, in which severe bleeding predominated (3.65% py). Considering our results, more specialized attention seems necessary to reduce the incidence of severe complications and also a more critical view of the literature. Considering our results, and our indirect comparison with many real-world studies, more specialized attention seems necessary to reduce the incidence of severe complications in AF patients receiving DOACs.

Can Machine Learning from Real-World Data Support Drug Treatment Decisions? A Prediction Modeling Case for Direct Oral Anticoagulants

BACKGROUND

Decision making for the "best" treatment is particularly challenging in situations in which individual patient response to drugs can largely differ from average treatment effects. By estimating individual treatment effects (ITEs), we aimed to demonstrate how strokes, major bleeding events, and a composite of both could be reduced by model-assisted recommendations for a particular direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC).

METHODS

In German claims data for the calendar years 2014-2018, we selected 29 901 new users of the DOACs rivaroxaban and apixaban. Random forests considered binary events within 1 y to estimate ITEs under each DOAC according to the X-learner algorithm with 29 potential effect modifiers; treatment recommendations were based on these estimated ITEs. Model performance was evaluated by the c-for-benefit statistics, absolute risk reduction (ARR), and absolute risk difference (ARD) by trial emulation.

RESULTS

A significant proportion of patients would be recommended a different treatment option than they actually received. The stroke model significantly discriminated patients for higher benefit and thus indicated improved decisions by reduced outcomes (c-for-benefit: 0.56; 95% confidence interval [0.52; 0.60]). In the group with apixaban recommendation, the model also improved the composite endpoint (ARR: 1.69 % [0.39; 2.97]). In trial emulations, model-assisted recommendations significantly reduced the composite event rate (ARD: -0.78 % [-1.40; -0.03]).

CONCLUSIONS

If prescribers are undecided about the potential benefits of different treatment options, ITEs can support decision making, especially if evidence is inconclusive, risk-benefit profiles of therapeutic alternatives differ significantly, and the patients' complexity deviates from "typical" study populations. In the exemplary case for DOACs and potentially in other situations, the significant impact could also become practically relevant if recommendations were available in an automated way as part of decision making.HighlightsIt was possible to calculate individual treatment effects (ITEs) from routine claims data for rivaroxaban and apixaban, and the characteristics between the groups with recommendation for one or the other option differed significantly.ITEs resulted in recommendations that were significantly superior to usual (observed) treatment allocations in terms of absolute risk reduction, both separately for stroke and in the composite endpoint of stroke and major bleeding.When similar patients from routine data were selected (precision cohorts) for patients with a strong recommendation for one option or the other, those similar patients under the respective recommendation showed a significantly better prognosis compared with the alternative option.Many steps may still be needed on the way to clinical practice, but the principle of decision support developed from routine data may point the way toward future decision-making processes.

Atrial fibrillation pattern and factors affecting the progression to permanent atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) may progress from a non-permanent to a permanent form, and improvement in prediction may help in decision-making. In- and outpatients with non-permanent AF were enrolled in a prospective study and followed every 6 months. At baseline, 314 out of 523 patients (60%) had non-permanent AF (25.5% paroxysmal AF, 52.5% persistent, 2% first diagnosed AF). They were mostly males (188, 59.9%), median age 71 years [interquartile range (IQ) 62-77], median CHA₂DS₂VASc 3 (IQ 1-4), median HATCH score 1 (IQ 1-2). During a follow-up of 701 (IQ 437-902) days, 66 patients (21%) developed permanent AF. CHA₂DS₂VASc and HATCH scores were incrementally associated with AF progression (p for trend CHA₂DS₂VASc < 0.001, HATCH p = 0.001). Cox multivariable proportional hazard regression analysis showed that age [hazard ratio (HR) 1.042; 95%CI 1.005-1.080; p = 0.025], moderate-severe left atrial (LA) enlargement at echo (HR 2.072, 95%CI, 1.121-3.831; p = 0.020), antiarrhythmics drugs (HR 0.087, 95%CI 0.011-0.659, p = 0.018), EHRA score > 2 (HR 0.358, 95%CI 0.162-0.791, p = 0.011) and valvular disease (HR 2.196, 95%CI 1.072-4.499, p = 0.032) were significantly associated with AF progression. Adding "moderate-severe LA dilation" to clinical scores, eg. HATCH score (HATCH-LA) with 2 points (Cox multivariable regression analysis) improved prediction of AF progression vs. HATCH score (p = 0.0225). In patients without permanent AF, progression of AF was independently associated with age, LA dilation, AF symptoms severity, antiarrhythmic drugs and valvular disease. Adding LA dilation (moderate-severe volume increase) to clinical scores improved prediction of progression to permanent AF.

Switching across direct oral anticoagulants: a real-life-setting pilot prospective study

AIMS

Crossover between direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) has been underinvestigated, but happens frequently in clinical practice. The purpose of this study was to evaluate causes, rates and outcomes of a DOAC-to-DOAC switch.

METHODS

Patients receiving their first DOAC prescription at the Anticoagulation Center, Cardiology Dept, Bologna-Bellaria Hospital in 2017-2018 were consecutively included and prospectively followed up. DOAC-to-DOAC switch was the main outcome; causes of switch (cardiovascular events and noncardiovascular drug-related adverse events) had direct biannual assessment before and after the switch.

RESULTS

Among 300 patients enrolled (mean age = 79.3 years, mean follow-up = 1.5 years), with no difference in cardiovascular risk factors depending on index DOAC, 13% underwent DOAC-to-DOAC switch, minor bleeding and noncardiovascular adverse events being the most frequent causes. Dabigatran carried a three-fold increase in risk of switch compared with other DOACs, but the mean age of patients who switched was 83. Factors leading to switch resolved in 87% of cases afterwards. Annual rates of cardiovascular/noncardiovascular V events did not differ before and after the switch.

CONCLUSION

DOAC-to-DOAC switch happens in 9% of patients using DOAC each year, and seems not to impact rates of cardiovascular events after switch. Dabigatran, in the elderly, might be associated with a higher risk of DOAC-to-DOAC switch. Further studies are needed to confirm the long-term safety and effectiveness of switching paradigm.

Beyond the 2020 guidelines on atrial fibrillation of the European society of cardiology

The most recent atrial fibrillation (AF) guidelines delivered by European Society of Cardiology (ESC) offer an updated approach to AF management, with the perspective of improved characterization of the arrhythmia, the cardiac substrate and the patients profile in terms of associated risk factors and comorbidities. Recommendations were based on careful scrutiny and assessment of all available evidence with the final aim to offer to practitioners a lower level of uncertainty in the complex process of decision making for patients with AF. The 2020 ESC guidelines on AF propose a paradigm shift in the clinical approach to AF patients, moving from a single-domain AF classification to comprehensive characterization of AF patients. Given the complex nature of AF, an integrated holistic management of AF patients is suggested by the guidelines for improving patients outcomes through the formal introduction of the CC (Confirm AF and Characterize AF) to ABC (Atrial fibrillation Better Care) pathway. In line with this concept, these new guidelines underline the importance of a more comprehensive management of AF patients which should not be limited to simply prescribe oral anticoagulation or decide between a rhythm or rate control strategy. Indeed, each step of the ABC pathway represents one of the pivotal pillars in the management of AF and only a holistic approach has the potential to improve patients' outcomes. In this review we will discuss the background that supports some of the new recommendations of 2020 ESC guidelines, with important implications for daily management of AF patients.

Long-term outcomes of postoperative atrial fibrillation following non cardiac surgery: A systematic review and metanalysis

BACKGROUND

New-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) in non-cardiac postoperative setting is common and is associated with a high risk of in-hospital mortality and morbidity. The long-term risks of stroke, mortality and AF recurrence rate in patients with postoperative AF (POAF) are unclear.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature review in electronic databases from inception to March 5th, 2020 of studies reporting the incidence of stroke, mortality and AF recurrence in patients with POAF. We confined our analysis to studies with a cohort of at least 150 patients with POAF and with a median follow-up of 12 months as a minimum. Odds Ratios (OR) were pooled using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

Qualitative analysis included 8 studies (7 observational cohort studies and 1 randomized controlled trial) enrolling 3,718,587 patients. Six studies underwent metanalysis comprising 17,684 postoperative patients with POAF and 2,169,248 postoperative patients without POAF. The development of POAF conferred a four-fold increased risk of stroke in the long-term [OR 4.05; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.91-5.62]. Mortality in the two studies reporting long-term data was higher in patients with POAF compared to those without POAF (OR 3.59; CI 95% 2.84-4.53). Data about recurrence were too heterogeneous to undergo metanalysis.

CONCLUSIONS

POAF is associated with a greater risk of stroke and mortality over the long-term period. Studies focusing on AF recurrence are needed to address the perception of POAF as a benign transient entity. The increased mortality risk following POAF should encourage systematic detection and prevention of this arrhythmia.

Estimated Thresholds of Minimum Necessary Adherence for Effective Treatment with Direct Oral Anticoagulants - A Retrospective Cohort Study in Health Insurance Claims Data

BACKGROUND

An essential contribution regarding the prevention of thromboembolic events in patients with (non-valvular) atrial fibrillation (AF) is good adherence to direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). However, it is an open question what "good" adherence means for DOACs or below which threshold non-adherence is clinically relevant for AF patients. Ultimately, such a classification could prevent strokes and associated costs through adjusted treatment regimens or supportive measures.

METHODS

We selected 10,092 AF patients from health insurance claims data between 2014 and 2018 who were issued a majority (at least half of the number) of maximum approved strength prescriptions of one of the following DOACs, namely rivaroxaban, apixaban, or dabigatran. Due to the limited sample size, the prescriptions of dabigatran had to be finally excluded for the cut-off analysis. DOAC adherence was calculated as the proportion of days covered (PDC) by dividing the days of theoretical use (days covered) of the drug by the duration in days of the observation interval. PDC cut-off values were derived from stroke risk as a function of continuous PDC values in time-to-event analyses and corresponding dose-response models. The influence of adherence-promoting interventions (targeted and untargeted) on the occurrence of strokes and related costs was then projected, considering intervention costs per patient.

RESULTS

The population had a mean age of 74.5 years and 50% were female. The median PDC was 0.79 ± 0.28 with a median follow-up time of 1218 days, in which 2% of all DOAC patients had a stroke. The adherence cut-offs for good adherence were identified at 0.78 for rivaroxaban and 0.8 for apixaban. Targeted interventions appeared to be far more cost-effective than untargeted interventions.

CONCLUSION

Clear adherence cut-offs enable healthcare professionals to identify patients with clinically relevant non-adherence. Interventions based on these cut-offs appear to be a promising means to optimize DOAC treatment.

Consumer-led screening for atrial fibrillation using consumer-facing wearables, devices and apps: A survey of health care professionals by AF-SCREEN international collaboration

AIM

A variety of consumer-facing wearables, devices and apps are marketed directly to consumers to detect atrial fibrillation (AF). However, their management is not defined. Our aim was to explore their role for AF screening via a survey.

METHODS AND RESULTS

An anonymous web-based survey was undertaken by 588 health care professionals (HCPs) (response rate 23.7%). Overall, 57% HCPs currently advise wearables/apps for AF detection in their patients: this was much higher for electrophysiologists and nurses/allied health professionals (74-75%) than cardiologists (57%) or other physicians (34-38%). Approximately 46% recommended handheld (portable) single-lead dedicated ECG devices, or, less frequently, wristband ECG monitors with similar differentials between HCPs . Only 10-15% HCPs advised photoplethysmographic wristband monitors or smartphone apps. In over half of the HCP consultations for AF detected by wearables/apps, the decision to screen was entirely the patient's. About 45% of HCPs perceive a potential role for AF screening in people aged >65 years or in those with risk factors. Almost 70% of HCPs believed we are not yet ready for mass consumer-initiated screening for AF using wearable devices/apps, with patient anxiety, risk of false positives and negatives, and risk of anticoagulant-related bleeding perceived as potential disadvantages, and perceived need for appropriate management pathways.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a great potential for appropriate use of consumer-facing wearables/apps for AF screening. However, it appears that there is a need to better define suitable individuals for screening and an appropriate mechanism for managing positive results before they can be recommended by HCPs.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the clinical activities related to arrhythmias and electrophysiology in Italy: results of a survey promoted by AIAC (Italian Association of Arrhythmology and Cardiac Pacing)

COVID-19 outbreak had a major impact on the organization of care in Italy, and a survey to evaluate provision of for arrhythmia during COVID-19 outbreak (March-April 2020) was launched. A total of 104 physicians from 84 Italian arrhythmia centres took part in the survey. The vast majority of participating centres (95.2%) reported a significant reduction in the number of elective pacemaker implantations during the outbreak period compared to the corresponding two months of year 2019 (50.0% of centres reported a reduction of > 50%). Similarly, 92.9% of participating centres reported a significant reduction in the number of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) implantations for primary prevention, and 72.6% a significant reduction of ICD implantations for secondary prevention (> 50% in 65.5 and 44.0% of the centres, respectively). The majority of participating centres (77.4%) reported a significant reduction in the number of elective ablations (> 50% in 65.5% of the centres). Also the interventional procedures performed in an emergency setting, as well as acute management of atrial fibrillation had a marked reduction, thus leading to the conclusion that the impact of COVID-19 was disrupting the entire organization of health care, with a massive impact on the activities and procedures related to arrhythmia management in Italy.

Influence of BMI and geographical region on prescription of oral anticoagulants in newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: The GLORIA-AF Registry Program

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and oral anticoagulant (OAC) prescription in atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

Patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular AF (<3 months) with ≥1 stroke risk factors enrolled in the Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (GLORIA-AF) in Asia, Europe and North America were evaluated.

RESULTS

The cohort (n = 13,793) comprised patients from all BMI categories (kg/m²): 1.4% were underweight (<18.5), 27.3% had a normal BMI (18.5 to <25), 37.9% were overweight (25 to <30), 19.3% were moderately obese (30 to <35), and 12.7% were morbidly obese (≥35). The highest proportion of Asians had a BMI of 18.5 to <25 kg/m², while the highest proportion of patients from Europe and North America were overweight and a substantial proportion of North Americans morbidly obese. In the multivariable analysis, the probability ratio of non-prescription of OAC, as compared to normal BMI, decreased for overweight (RR = 0.907), moderately obese (RR = 0.802) and severe very severe obese patients (RR = 0.659). Moreover, the probability ratio of non-prescription of OACs was increased in the Asia or North America regions, as compared with Europe, in patients aged <65 years or female patients, as well as in patients with prior bleeding or vascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

The distribution of BMI differed among the continents. An increased BMI was associated with a lower probability of non-prescription of OACs, as compared with a normal BMI. The probability of non-prescription of OACs was increased in the Asia or North America regions, as compared with Europe.