COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?

Conflict, COVID-19, and crisis response: shifting from 'pivoting' to preparedness

This paper assesses the extent to which the COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic directed the attention and resources of the international community away from peacebuilding, and the potential impact of this on conflict-affected environments. It draws from a global survey, interviews, and conversations with peacebuilding practitioners, publicly available information on peacebuilding funding, and real-time data on conflict events from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. The paper argues that resources and attention have 'pivoted' away from peacebuilding to tackle the threat presented by COVID-19, and that this can-but does not always-adversely affect conflict dynamics. It contends that this pivoting belies the interconnectedness of crises, leads to 'forgotten crises' and escalating threats, and exposes deficiencies in peacebuilding funding and, more broadly, preparedness and crisis response. Crises do, however, provide opportunities for reflection and change, including how to address these deficiencies and, in so doing, advance more efficient, effective, and ethical practice.

A monetary model of global peace and health

BACKGROUND

This study aims to expand on the concept of peace and health by drawing from Keynes' theory of the economic consequences of peace, in light of the global pandemic experienced in 2020 due to COVID_19.

METHODS

In this paper, I will elaborate on the concept of 'security', as an indicator of peace in the time of biological shocks, in order to expand the definition of Keynesian precautionary motivation. This puts forth a new monetary policy model developed to make contributions to achieving global peace. In so doing, I will calculate the optimal growth rate of discount rate through utilizing the Global Peace Index (GPI), adjusted by the Case Fatality Risk (CFR) of COVID-19 in a dynamic shopping time monetary model. This analysis is comprised of the top 15 GDP countries as well as the 10 most and least peaceful countries in 2020.

RESULTS

The results indicate that households in more peaceful and healthy countries tend to hold less money compared to those in less peaceful and healthy countries. Besides, the discount rate needs to be reduced due to the outbreak of COVID-19 and the decrease in the level of peace in the economy.

CONCLUSION

Insofar as the imposition of fines through international legal circles on countries with an insignificant health and peace policy will increase the cost of liquidity, other alternative methods of financing will be affor dable for the countries.

Governments' economic support for households during the COVID-19 pandemic and consumer confidence

To combat the adverse consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have implemented various economic policies. This study examines how different types of government economic support for households are associated with consumer confidence. Utilizing data from 35 countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development for January 2020-October 2021 and applying panel fixed effect and system generalized methods of moments regressions, we show that higher levels of government economic support lead to higher levels of consumer confidence. The results also suggest that government income support for households has a stronger impact than debt/contract relief on consumer confidence during the pandemic in the full sample. Moreover, we find that debt/contract relief is a more effective policy to boost confidence in emerging economies. Finally, COVID-19 fatalities have a significant negative effect on consumer confidence.