Prognostic role and predictors of lymph node involvement in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors

A nomogram to preoperatively predict the aggressiveness of non-functional pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors based on CT features

OBJECTIVES

To develop a nomogram to predict the aggressiveness of non-functional pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NF-pNETs) based on preoperative computed tomography (CT) features.

METHODS

This study included 176 patients undergoing radical resection for NF-pNETs. These patients were randomly divided into the training (n = 123) and validation sets (n = 53). A nomogram was developed based on preoperative predictors of aggressiveness of the NF-pNETs which were identified by univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. The aggressiveness of NF-pNETs was defined as a composite measure including G3 grading, N+, distant metastases, and/ or disease recurrence.

RESULTS

Altogether, the number of patients with highly aggressive NF-pNETs was 37 (30.08 %) and 15 (28.30 %) in the training and validation sets, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified that tumor size, biliopancreatic duct dilatation, lymphadenopathy, and enhancement pattern were preoperative predictors of aggressiveness. Those variables were used to develop a nomogram with good concordance statistics of 0.89 and 0.86 for predicting aggressiveness in the training and validation sets, respectively. With a nomogram score of 59, patients with NF-pNETs were divided into low-aggressive and high-aggressive groups. The high-aggressive group had decreased overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Moreover, the nomogram showed good performance in predicting OS and DFS at 3, 5, and 10 years.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram integrating CT features helped preoperatively predict the aggressiveness of NF-pNETs and could potentially facilitate clinical decision-making.

Development and validation of CT-based radiomics deep learning signatures to predict lymph node metastasis in non-functional pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: a multicohort study

Background

Lymph node status is an important factor for the patients with non-functional pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NF-PanNETs) with respect to the surgical methods, prognosis, recurrence. Our aim is to develop and validate a combination model based on contrast-enhanced CT images to predict the lymph node metastasis (LNM) in NF-PanNETs.

Methods

Retrospective data were gathered for 320 patients with NF-PanNETs who underwent curative pancreatic resection and CT imaging at two institutions (Center 1, n = 236 and Center 2, n = 84) between January 2010 and March 2022. RDPs (Radiomics deep learning signature) were developed based on ten machine-learning techniques. These signatures were integrated with the clinicopathological factors into a nomogram for clinical applications. The evaluation of the model's performance was conducted through the metrics of the area under the curve (AUC).

Findings

The RDPs showed excellent performance in both centers with a high AUC for predicting LNM and disease-free survival (DFS) in Center 1 (AUC, 0.88; 95% CI: 0.84-0.92; DFS, p < 0.05) and Center 2 (AUC, 0.91; 95% CI: 0.85-0.97; DFS, p < 0.05). The clinical factors of vascular invasion, perineural invasion, and tumor grade were associated with LNM (p < 0.05). The combination nomogram showed better prediction capability for LNM (AUC, 0.93; 95% CI: 0.89-0.96). Notably, our model maintained a satisfactory predictive ability for tumors at the 2-cm threshold, demonstrating its effectiveness across different tumor sizes in Center 1 (≤2 cm: AUC, 0.90 and >2 cm: AUC, 0.86) and Center 2 (≤2 cm: AUC, 0.93 and >2 cm: AUC, 0.91).

Interpretation

Our RDPs may have the potential to preoperatively predict LNM in NF-PanNETs, address the insufficiency of clinical guidelines concerning the 2-cm threshold for tumor lymph node dissection, and provide precise therapeutic strategies.

Funding

This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP22K20814; the Rare Tumor Research Special Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82141104) and Clinical Research Special Project of Shanghai Municipal Health Commission (202340123).