A comparison of chemotherapy recommendations using Predict and Adjuvant models

Evaluation and comparison of different breast cancer prognosis scores based on gene expression data

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer is one of the three most common cancers worldwide and is the most common malignancy in women. Treatment approaches for breast cancer are diverse and varied. Clinicians must balance risks and benefits when deciding treatments, and models have been developed to support this decision-making. Genomic risk scores (GRSs) may offer greater clinical value than standard clinicopathological models, but there is limited evidence as to whether these models perform better than the current clinical standard of care.

METHODS

PREDICT and GRSs were adapted using data from the original papers. Univariable Cox proportional hazards models were produced with breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) as the outcome. Independent predictors of BCSS were used to build multivariable models with PREDICT. Signatures which provided independent prognostic information in multivariable models were incorporated into the PREDICT algorithm and assessed for calibration, discrimination and reclassification.

RESULTS

EndoPredict, MammaPrint and Prosigna demonstrated prognostic power independent of PREDICT in multivariable models for ER-positive patients; no score predicted BCSS in ER-negative patients. Incorporating these models into PREDICT had only a modest impact upon calibration (with absolute improvements of 0.2-0.8%), discrimination (with no statistically significant c-index improvements) and reclassification (with 4-10% of patients being reclassified).

CONCLUSION

Addition of GRSs to PREDICT had limited impact on model fit or treatment received. This analysis does not support widespread adoption of current GRSs based on our implementations of commercial products.

Incorporating progesterone receptor expression into the PREDICT breast prognostic model

BACKGROUND

Predict Breast (www.predict.nhs.uk) is an online prognostication and treatment benefit tool for early invasive breast cancer. The aim of this study was to incorporate the prognostic effect of progesterone receptor (PR) status into a new version of PREDICT and to compare its performance to the current version (2.2).

METHOD

The prognostic effect of PR status was based on the analysis of data from 45,088 European patients with breast cancer from 49 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratio for PR status. Data from a New Zealand study of 11,365 patients with early invasive breast cancer were used for external validation. Model calibration and discrimination were used to test the model performance.

RESULTS

Having a PR-positive tumour was associated with a 23% and 28% lower risk of dying from breast cancer for women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative and ER-positive breast cancer, respectively. The area under the ROC curve increased with the addition of PR status from 0.807 to 0.809 for patients with ER-negative tumours (p = 0.023) and from 0.898 to 0.902 for patients with ER-positive tumours (p = 2.3 × 10-6) in the New Zealand cohort. Model calibration was modest with 940 observed deaths compared to 1151 predicted.

CONCLUSION

The inclusion of the prognostic effect of PR status to PREDICT Breast has led to an improvement of model performance and more accurate absolute treatment benefit predictions for individual patients. Further studies should determine whether the baseline hazard function requires recalibration.