Conditional survival analysis for patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) undergoing curative resection

Conditional Relative Survival of Exocrine Pancreatic Cancer: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Adjusted prognostic information is important for treatment decisions, especially in elderly patients or survivors of exocrine pancreatic cancer (EPC). This study aims to investigate conditional relative survival (CS) rates and conditional probabilities of death in patients with EPC.

METHODS

Data of 77,975 individuals diagnosed with EPC between 1999 and 2019 were obtained from the Korea Central Cancer Registry. CS was analyzed across strata including histology groups (ductal adenocarcinoma excluding cystic or mucinous [group I, PDAC] and ductal adenocarcinoma specified as mucinous or cystic adenocarcinoma [group II]), and age.

RESULTS

For PDAC, the overall 5-year relative survival (RS) rate at diagnosis, 3-year CS of 2-year survivors, and 5-year CS of 5-year survivors were 8.5%, 50.1%, and 77.6%, respectively. Overall conditional probabilities of death were 85.2% (≥ 80 years), 73.5% (70-79 years), and 62.0% (60-69 years) in year 1 after diagnosis. Among patients with localized or regional stage who underwent surgery, conditional probabilities of death of ≥ 80, 70-79, and 60-69 years were 37.7%, 32.5%, and 22.6% in the first year, and 26.6%, 27.2%, and 26.0% in year 2 after diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Half of patients with EPC who survived for 2 years survived for an additional 3 years. However, 5-year PDAC survivors require follow-up as more than 20% do not survive for a further 5 years. Elderly patients should not be excluded from active treatment for localized or regional-stage PDAC, as the CS of elderly patients who are fit enough to undergo surgery is not inferior to that of younger patients.

Epidemiology and outcome of individuals with intraductal papillary neoplasms of the bile duct

BACKGROUND

Intraductal papillary neoplasm of the bile duct (IPNB) is a rare distinct subtype of precursor lesions of biliary carcinoma. IPNB is considered to originate from luminal biliary epithelial cells, typically displays mucin-hypersecretion or a papillary growth pattern, and results in cystic dilatation[1]. IPNB develops anywhere in the intrahepatic and extrahepatic biliary tracts, and can occur in various pathological stages from low-grade dysplasia to invasive carcinoma. IPNBs have similar phenotypic changes in the occurrence and development of all subtypes, and the prognosis is significantly better than that of traditional (non-papillary) cholangiocarcinoma.

AIM

To evaluate the clinicopathological features of IPNB to provide evidence-based guidance for treatment.

METHODS

Invasive IPNB, invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas (IPMN), and traditional cholangiocarcinoma data for affected individuals from 1975 to 2016 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Annual percentage changes (APCs) in the incidence and incidence-based (IB) mortality were calculated. We identified the independent predictors of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in individuals with invasive IPNB.

RESULTS

The incidence and IB mortality of invasive IPNB showed sustained decreases, with an APC of -4.5% (95%CI: -5.1% to -3.8%) and -3.3% (95%CI: -4.1% to -2.6%) (P < 0.001), respectively. Similar decreases in incidence and IB mortality were seen for invasive IPMN but not for traditional cholangiocarcinoma. Both OS and CSS for invasive IPNB were better than for invasive IPMN and traditional cholangiocarcinoma. A total of 1635 individuals with invasive IPNB were included in our prognosis analysis. The most common tumor sites were the pancreaticobiliary ampulla (47.9%) and perihilar tract (36.7%), but the mucin-related subtype of invasive IPNB was the main type, intrahepatically (approximately 90%). In the univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis, age, tumor site, grade and stage, subtype, surgery, and chemotherapy were associated with OS and CSS (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Incidence and IB mortality of invasive IPNB trended steadily downward. The heterogeneity of IPNB comprises site and the tumor’s mucin-producing status.

Dynamic evaluation of postoperative survival in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma patients who did not undergo lymphadenectomy: a multicenter study

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) patients who did not undergo lymphadenectomy is difficult to assess. This study aims to have a dynamic evaluation on the postoperative survival of ICC patients by calculating conditional survival.

METHODS

Relevant data were from patients treated in 12 large-scale hospitals from December 2011 to December 2017. The influence of relevant clinical baseline data on the prognosis of ICC patients was analyzed by Cox regression. Conditional survival (CS) is a method that may predict the prognostic probability dynamically. For a patient with x years of survival, the 1-year CS (CS1) may be calculated as CS1= OS(x + 1)/OS(x).

RESULT

A total of 361 patients who met the criteria were included in the study. Conditional survival (CS) means that the patients' prognosis varies with survival time, meanwhile, relevant factors affecting the prognosis have a time-varying effect. The probability of survival assessed by CS1 increased year by year and the 1,2,3-year survival improved from 68.4% to 87.8%, while the postoperative actuarial OS decreased from 69.4% at 1 years to 36.9% at 3 years.

CONCLUSIONS

In terms of CS, the estimated survival for ICC varies with the increase of survival time after excision. Patients who live longer were likely to live longer. At the same time, with the passage of time, the role of the original adverse factors of the tumor would gradually decrease. Conditional survival allows a more accurate assessment of ICC patients who did not undergo lymphadenectomy.

Dynamic evaluation of conditional survival in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma after surgical resection: A large-scale prospective study

OBJECTIVE

To dynamically estimate conditional survival (CS) probabilities for patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) after surgical resection.

METHOD

A large-scale prospective study was performed involving 1147 eligible OSCC patients from December 2002 to June 2018. Follow-up was completed on January 8, 2019. Cox proportional hazards models were utilized to assess prognostic factors related to overall survival (OS). Three-year CS (CS3) of patients who had already survived x years was calculated as the formula CS3 = OS(x+3)/OS(x).

RESULTS

CS3 estimates at the time of 0, 1, 3, 5-year survival demonstrated a tendency increase over time, and improved from 78.47% to 82.25%, while the postoperative actuarial OS decreased from 78.47% at 3 years to 57.12% at 8 years. Moreover, the differences between CS3 and actuarial OS were more obvious among patients with unfavorable tumor characteristics. Disparities in CS3 across all subgroups of tumor features illustrated more prominent at baseline (d range: 0.24 to 0.40), while the gaps would narrow if those patients have already survived 5 years (d range: -0.01 to 0.18).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that survival profiles of OSCC patients evolve and increase over time following resection, especially for those with unfavorable tumor features at initial diagnosis. CS estimates may provide more accurate prediction and guide surveillance schedules.

Nomograms predicting long-term survival in patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

There are few effective tools to predict survival in patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas.

AIM

To develop comprehensive nomograms to individually estimate the survival outcome of patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas.

METHODS

Data of 1219 patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms after resection were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, and randomly divided into the training (n = 853) and the validation (n = 366) cohorts. Based on the Cox regression model, nomograms were constructed to predict overall survival and cancer-specific survival for an individual patient. The performance of the nomograms was measured according to discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. Moreover, we compared the predictive accuracy of the nomograms with that of the traditional staging system.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, age, marital status, histological type, T stage, N stage, M stage, and chemotherapy were selected to construct nomograms. Compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer 7^th staging system, the nomograms were generally more discriminative. The nomograms passed the calibration steps by showing high consistency between actual probability and nomogram prediction. Categorial net classification improvements and integrated discrimination improvements suggested that the predictive accuracy of the nomograms exceeded that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system. With respect to decision curve analyses, the nomograms exhibited more preferable net benefit gains than the staging system across a wide range of threshold probabilities.

CONCLUSION

The nomograms show improved predictive accuracy, discrimination capability, and clinical utility, which can be used as reliable tools for risk classification and treatment recommendations.