Role of a pre-operative radiological scoring system in determining resectability for potentially resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma

Predictive model for the intraoperative unresectability of hilar cholangiocarcinoma: Reducing futile surgical exploration

Introduction

Surgical exploration is widely performed in hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HCCA), but the intraoperative resectability rate is only 60%-80%. Exploration substantially increases pain and mental stress, and the costs and length of hospital stay are considerably increased. Identifying preoperative risk factors associated with unresectability could decrease unnecessary exploration.

Materials and methods

In total, 440 HCCA patients from multiple centers were enrolled. Those receiving surgical exploration were divided into the resected and unresected groups. Morphological variables including Bismuth classification, lymph node metastasis and vessel invasion were obtained from radiological exams. Logistic regression for the training cohort was used to identify risk factors for unresectability, and a nomogram was constructed to calculate the unresectability rate. A calibration curve assessed the power of the nomogram.

Results

Among 311 patients receiving surgical exploration, 45 (14.7%) were unresectable by intraoperative judgment. Compared with the resected group, unresected patients had similar costs (p = 0.359) and lengths of hospital stay (p = 0.439). Multivariable logistic regression of the training cohort (235 patients) revealed that CA125, Bismuth-Corlette type IV, lymph node metastasis and hepatic artery invasion were risk factors for unresectability. Liver atrophy (p = 0.374) and portal vein invasion (p = 0.114) were not risk factors. The nomogram was constructed based on the risk factors. The concordance index (C-index) values of the calibration curve for predicting the unresectability rate of the training and validation (76 patients) cohorts were 0.900 (95% CI, 0.835–0.966) and 0.829 (95% CI, 0.546–0.902), respectively.

Conclusion

Analysis of preoperative factors could reveal intraoperative unresectability and reduce futile surgical explorations, ultimately benefiting HCCA patients.

Evaluation of the utility of prognostic models for patients with resected hilar cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Several prognostic systems have been proposed to guide management strategies post-resection for patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma. The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of these conventional prognostic models, with respect to Overall Survival (OS), on patients in a modern single-centre resectional cohort.

METHOD

Patients diagnosed with hilar cholangiocarcinoma, referred to a supra-regional tertiary referral centre between February 2009 and February 2016, were retrospectively analysed from a prospectively held database linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and Somerset Cancer Registry data.

RESULTS

Two-hundred and one patients were assessed for suitability for surgery. Eighty-three (41%) patients considered to have potentially resectable disease underwent surgical assessment of resectability. Fifty-six (68%) patients proceeded to resection. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that pre-operative Serum CA 19-9 (p = 0.007), Radiological Arterial Involvement (p = 0.005) and Amsterdam Medical Centre (AMC) prognostic model score (p = 0.032) retained significance in association with OS. Multivariate models developed from this cohort out-performed the conventional prognostic systems for OS.

CONCLUSION

The cohort-derived multivariate models demonstrated significantly improved prognostic capability compared to conventional systems in explaining OS.