The faith of non-surveilled pancreatic cysts: a bicentric retrospective study

Older Age as a Worrisome Feature in Patients With Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms: A Long-Term Surveillance Study

INTRODUCTION

Aging has been implicated in the development of various cancer types. No study has specifically investigated age at intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) diagnosis in relation to the long-term risk of pancreatic carcinogenesis.

METHODS

Within a prospective cohort of 4,104 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cysts, we identified 3,142 patients with IPMNs and examined an association of age at IPMN diagnosis with the incidence of pancreatic carcinoma. Using the multivariable competing-risks proportional hazards regression model, we estimated subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for pancreatic carcinoma incidence according to age at IPMN diagnosis.

RESULTS

During 22,187 person-years of follow-up, we documented 130 patients diagnosed with pancreatic carcinoma (64 with IPMN-derived carcinoma and 66 with concomitant ductal adenocarcinoma). Older age at IPMN diagnosis was associated with a higher risk of pancreatic cancer incidence ( Ptrend = 0.002). Compared with patients younger than 55 years, patients aged 55-64, 65-74, and ≥ 75 years had adjusted SHRs of 1.80 (95% CI, 0.75-4.32), 2.56 (95% CI, 1.10-5.98), and 3.31 (95% CI, 1.40-7.83), respectively. Patients aged 70 years and older had a numerically similar adjusted SHR compared with patients younger than 70 years with worrisome features defined by the international consensus guidelines (1.73 [95% CI, 1.01-2.97] and 1.66 [95% CI, 0.89-3.10], respectively).

DISCUSSION

Older patients with IPMNs were at a higher risk of developing pancreatic carcinoma during surveillance. Surgically fit elderly patients may be good candidates for periodic surveillance aimed at a reduction of pancreatic cancer-related deaths.

Systematic review on surveillance for non-resected branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

BACKGROUND

The management of branch-duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMN) varies in existing guidelines. This study investigated the optimal surveillance protocol and safe discontinuation of surveillance considering natural history in non-resected IPMN, by systematically reviewing the published literature.

METHODS

This review was guided by PRISMA. Research questions were framed in PICO format "CQ1-1: Is size criteria helpful to determine surveillance period? CQ1-2: How often should surveillance be carried out? CQ1-3: When should surveillance be discontinued? CQ1-4: Is nomogram predicting malignancy useful during surveillance?". PubMed was searched from January-April 2022.

RESULTS

The search generated 2373 citations. After screening, 83 articles were included. Among them, 33 studies were identified for CQ1-1, 19 for CQ1-2, 26 for CQ1-3 and 12 for CQ1-4. Cysts <1.5 or 2 cm without worrisome features (WF) were described as more indolent, and most studies advised an initial period of surveillance. The median growth rate of cysts <2 cm ranged from 0.23 to 0.6 mm/year. Patients with cysts <2 cm showing no morphological changes and no WF after 5-years of surveillance have minimal malignancy risk of 0-2%. Two nomograms created with over 1000 patients had AUCs of around 0.8 and appear to be feasible in a real-world practice.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with suspected BD-IPMN <2 cm and no other WF, less frequent surveillance is recommended. Surveillance may be discontinued for cysts that remain stable during 5-year surveillance, with consideration of patient condition and life expectancy. With this updated surveillance strategy, patients with non-worrisome BD-IPMN should expect more streamlined management and decreased healthcare utilization.

Are the screening guidelines for branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms cost-effective in an Australian setting?

BACKGROUNDS

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) are cystic neoplasms of the pancreatic ductal system. These incidental cystic lesions are increasingly found on radiological imaging and screened for malignant transformation. The Fukuoka consensus guidelines recommend screening with computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging or endoscopic ultrasound. Branch duct IPMN (BD-IPMN) have significantly lower malignancy and mortality rates compared to main duct IPMN. Our aim was to assess the cost-effectiveness of guideline's recommendations for BD-IPMN screening of cysts between 2 and 3 cm in an Australian context.

METHODS

Markov model decision analysis was used to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of screening. The ICER was compared to a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $50 000. We performed scenario analysis to examine the effect of cyst size and non-linearity of malignancy rate on ICER. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were performed on our input parameters.

RESULTS

Screening resulted in 586 quality adjusted life years gained and a net present value of $20 379 939, resulting in a base-case ICER of $34 758. After scenario analysis for non-linearity of malignancy rate the ICER increases to $64 555, which is above the WTP threshold. PSA indicates that ICER is most susceptible to the pre-test malignancy rate.

CONCLUSION

This cost analysis demonstrates that screening of 2-3 cm BD-IPMN according to current guidelines is unlikely to be cost-effective in an Australian context. To determine the true ICER, a cost analysis on real-world data is required.

The efficacy of low-dose CT with deep learning image reconstruction in the surveillance of incidentally detected pancreatic cystic lesions

PURPOSE

To evaluate the efficacy of low-dose CT (LDCT) with deep learning image reconstruction (DLIR) for the surveillance of pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) compared with standard-dose CT (SDCT) with adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR-V).

METHODS

The study enrolled 103 patients who underwent pancreatic CT for follow-up of incidentally detected PCLs. The CT protocol included LDCT in the pancreatic phase with 40% ASIR-V, DLIR at medium (DLIR-M) and high levels (DLIR-H), and SDCT in the portal-venous phase with 40% ASIR-V. The overall image quality and conspicuity of PCLs were qualitatively assessed using five-point scales by two radiologists. The size of PCLs, presence of thickened/enhancing walls, enhancing mural nodules, and main pancreatic duct dilatation were reviewed. CT noise and cyst-to-pancreas contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) were measured. Qualitative and quantitative parameters were analyzed using the chi-squared test, one-way ANOVA, and t-test. Additionally, interobserver agreement was analyzed using the kappa and weighted-kappa statistics.

RESULTS

The volume CT dose-indexes in LDCT and SDCT were 3.0 ± 0.6 mGy and 8.4 ± 2.9 mGy, respectively. LDCT with DLIR-H showed the highest overall image quality, the lowest noise, and the highest CNR. The PCL conspicuity in LDCT with either DLIR-M or DLIR-H was not significantly different from that in SDCT with ASIR-V. Other findings depicting PCLs also revealed no significant differences between LDCT with DLIR and SDCT with ASIR-V. Moreover, the results revealed good or excellent interobserver agreement.

CONCLUSION

LDCT with DLIR has a comparable performance with SDCT for the follow-up of incidentally detected PCLs.