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Greijdanus NG, Wienholts K, Ubels S, Talboom K, Hannink G, Wolthuis A, de Lacy FB, Lefevre JH, Solomon M, Frasson M, Rotholtz N, Denost Q, Perez RO, Konishi T, Panis Y, Rutegård M, Hompes R, Rosman C, van Workum F, Tanis PJ, de Wilt JH. Stoma-free Survival After Rectal Cancer Resection With Anastomotic Leakage: Development and Validation of a Prediction Model in a Large International Cohort. Ann Surg 2023; 278:772-780. [PMID: 37498208 PMCID: PMC10549897 DOI: 10.1097/sla.0000000000006043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/28/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To develop and validate a prediction model (STOMA score) for 1-year stoma-free survival in patients with rectal cancer (RC) with anastomotic leakage (AL). BACKGROUND AL after RC resection often results in a permanent stoma. METHODS This international retrospective cohort study (TENTACLE-Rectum) encompassed 216 participating centres and included patients who developed AL after RC surgery between 2014 and 2018. Clinically relevant predictors for 1-year stoma-free survival were included in uni and multivariable logistic regression models. The STOMA score was developed and internally validated in a cohort of patients operated between 2014 and 2017, with subsequent temporal validation in a 2018 cohort. The discriminative power and calibration of the models' performance were evaluated. RESULTS This study included 2499 patients with AL, 1954 in the development cohort and 545 in the validation cohort. Baseline characteristics were comparable. One-year stoma-free survival was 45.0% in the development cohort and 43.7% in the validation cohort. The following predictors were included in the STOMA score: sex, age, American Society of Anestesiologist classification, body mass index, clinical M-disease, neoadjuvant therapy, abdominal and transanal approach, primary defunctioning stoma, multivisceral resection, clinical setting in which AL was diagnosed, postoperative day of AL diagnosis, abdominal contamination, anastomotic defect circumference, bowel wall ischemia, anastomotic fistula, retraction, and reactivation leakage. The STOMA score showed good discrimination and calibration (c-index: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.66-0.76). CONCLUSIONS The STOMA score consists of 18 clinically relevant factors and estimates the individual risk for 1-year stoma-free survival in patients with AL after RC surgery, which may improve patient counseling and give guidance when analyzing the efficacy of different treatment strategies in future studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nynke G. Greijdanus
- Department of Surgery, Radboud university medical centre, Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Kiedo Wienholts
- Department of Surgery, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Treatment and Quality of Life, Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Imaging and Biomarkers, Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Sander Ubels
- Department of Surgery, Radboud university medical centre, Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Kevin Talboom
- Department of Surgery, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Treatment and Quality of Life, Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Imaging and Biomarkers, Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Gerjon Hannink
- Department of Medical Imaging, Radboud University Medical Centre, Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | | | - Francisco B. de Lacy
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Hospital Clinic of Barcelona, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Jérémie H. Lefevre
- Department of Digestive Surgery, Sorbonne Université, AP-HP, Hôpital Saint Antoine, Paris, France
| | - Michael Solomon
- Department of Surgery, University of Sydney Central Clinical School, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Matteo Frasson
- Department of Surgery, Valencia University Hospital La Fe, Valencia, Spain
| | | | - Quentin Denost
- Bordeaux Colorectal Institute, Clinique Tivoli, Bordeaux, France
| | - Rodrigo O. Perez
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, Hospital Alemão Oswaldo Cruz, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Tsuyoshi Konishi
- Department of Colon and Rectal Surgery, Division of Surgery, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX
| | - Yves Panis
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, Colorectal Surgery Center, Groupe Hospitalier Privé Ambroise Paré-Hartmann, Neuilly Seine, France
| | - Martin Rutegård
- Department of Surgery, Surgical and Perioperative Sciences, Surgery, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Wallenberg Centre for Molecular Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Roel Hompes
- Department of Surgery, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Treatment and Quality of Life, Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Imaging and Biomarkers, Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Camiel Rosman
- Department of Surgery, Radboud university medical centre, Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Frans van Workum
- Department of Surgery, Canisius Wilhelmina Hospital, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Pieter J. Tanis
- Department of Surgery, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Treatment and Quality of Life, Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Imaging and Biomarkers, Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Surgical Oncology and Gastrointestinal Surgery, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Johannes H.W. de Wilt
- Department of Surgery, Radboud university medical centre, Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
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