Effect of age on the short- and long-term outcomes of patients undergoing curative liver resection for HCC

Enhanced prediction of 5-year postoperative recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma by incorporating LASSO regression and random forest models

BACKGROUND

Tumor recurrence post-operation of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) impacts patient prognosis. Identifying and predicting 5-year HCC recurrence following surgery remains a substantial challenge.

METHODS

We included 338 patients diagnosed with HCC who underwent surgery from January 2013 to December 2018. Traditional logistic regression, random forest (RF), and LASSO regression methods were used to develop a predictive model for 5-year recurrence. The findings were presented visually using nomogram. The accuracy and sensitivity of the predictive model were evaluated by receiver operating curves (ROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Of the 338 patients, 172 (50.9%) experienced 5 years recurrence, with a gender distribution of 79.7% males. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that three independent predictors of 5-year HCC recurrence (all P < 0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) value of the model (Model-1) constructed was 0.678. Then we combined LASSO regression and RF construct a predictive model including six factors: age, transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), microvascular invasion (MVI), alcohol, size, and number. The AUC of the model (Model-2) constructed was 0.733. DeLong's test results showed that Model-2 had significantly better prediction ability compared with Model-1 (P = 0.004). DCA also demonstrated that Model-2 had better predictive accuracy (P < 0.05). Then we constructed a nomogram, and Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients in the low-risk group had significantly better prognosis than the high (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The predictive accuracy of our model, incorporating factors, such as age, alcohol, size, number, MVI, and TACE, significantly enhances clinical practice management by accurately forecasting 5 years HCC recurrence.

Hepatocellular carcinoma: Revising the surgical approach in light of the concept of multiparametric therapeutic hierarchy

The clinical management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is strongly influenced by several prognostic factors, mainly tumor stage, patient's health, liver function and specific characteristics of each intervention. The interplay between these factors should be carefully evaluated by a multidisciplinary tumor board. To support this, the novel "multiparametric therapeutic hierarchy" (MTH) concept has been recently proposed. This review will present the main features of available surgical treatments for HCC (liver transplantation, liver resection, ablation). Strengths and weaknesses are reported in the light of clinical decision making and of treatment allocation, with a special focus on the collocation of each treatment in the MTH framework and on how MTH may be useful in supporting clinical decision. Sequential treatments and their role to allow further surgical treatments will also be analyzed.

Efficacy and Safety of Surgical Resection in Elderly Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background/Aims

: With increased life expectancy, the management of elderly hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients became a crucial issue, yet it is still challenging due to comorbidities and high surgical risks. While surgical resection is considered as primary treatment for eligible HCC patients, systematic evidence on its outcomes in elderly patients remains scarce. In this review, we aimed to analyze the efficacy and safety outcomes of surgical resection in elderly HCC patients.

Methods

: The studies included in this meta-analysis were selected from Ovid-MEDLINE, Ovid-Embase, CENTRAL, KoreaMed, KMbase, and KISS databases following a predefined protocol. Efficacy outcomes included overall survival and disease-free survival, while the safety outcomes included postoperative mortality and complications.

Results

: Patients in the elderly group (≥65 years) who underwent surgery exhibited non-inferior overall survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92 to 1.74) and disease-free survival (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.99 to 1.08) compared to the non-elderly group. Overall postoperative mortality exhibited no statistical difference (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% CI, 0.87 to 1.31), but 30-day, 90-day, and in-hospital mortality were higher in the elderly group. The incidence of overall complications was higher in the elderly group (OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.22 to 1.69). Sensitivity analysis for the super elderly group (≥80 years) showed significantly higher in-hospital mortality compared to the non-super elderly group (OR, 2.51; 95% CI, 1.16 to 5.45).

Conclusions

: The efficacy outcome of surgical resection in the elderly HCC patients was not worse than that in the non-elderly HCC patients, while in-hospital mortality and complications rates were higher. Therefore, surgical resection should be purposefully considered in the elderly population, with careful candidate selection.

Laparoscopic-assisted microwave ablation in treatment of small hepatocellular carcinoma: safety and efficacy in comparison with laparoscopic hepatectomy

Laparoscopic-assisted microwave ablation (LAMWA), as one of the locoregional therapies, has been employed to treat hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aims to compare the efficacy and safety of LAMWA and laparoscopic hepatectomy in the treatment of small HCC.This study included 140 patients who met the inclusion criteria. Among them, 68 patients received LAMWA and 72 patients underwent laparoscopic hepatectomy. The perioperative condition, liver function recovery, the alpha fetoprotein (AFP) level, morbidities, hospitalization time, overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) and recurrence rate between the two groups were compared. The rate of complete elimination of tumor tissue was 100% and the AFP level was returned to normal within 3 months after surgery in both groups (P > 0.05). The mean alanine transaminase (ALT) and aspartate transaminase (AST) peak in the LAMWA group was lower than that in the laparoscopic hepatectomy group (259.51 ± 188.75 VS 388.9 ± 173.65, P = 0.000) and (267.34 ± 190.65 VS 393.1 ± 185.67, P = 0.000), respectively. The mean operation time in the LAMWA group was shorter than that in the laparoscopic hepatectomy group (89 ± 31 min VS 259 ± 48 min, P = 0.000). The blood loss in the LAMWA group was less than that in the laparoscopic hepatectomy group (58.4 ± 64.0 ml VS 213.0 ± 108.2 ml, P = 0.000). Compared with the laparoscopic hepatectomy group, patients in the LAMWA group had lower mean hospital stay (4.8 ± 1.2d VS 11.5 ± 2.9d, P = 0.000). The morbidities of the LAMWA group and the hepatectomy group were 14.7%(10/68) and 34.7%(25/72), respectively (P = 0.006). The one-, three-, and five-year OS rates were 88.2%, 69.9%, 45.6% for the LAMWA group and 86.1%, 72.9%, 51.4% for the laparoscopic hepatectomy group (P = 0.693). The corresponding DFS rates for the two groups were 76.3%, 48.1%, 27.9% and 73.2%, 56.7%, 32.0% (P = 0.958). Laparoscopic-assisted microwave ablation is a safe and effective therapeutic option for selected small HCC.

Cox model risk score to predict survival of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after ultrasound-guided ablation

PURPOSE

To explore factors associated with overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) after ultrasound-guided ablation and establish a model for survival risk evaluation.

METHODS

Data from 54 patients with 86 iCCAs between August 2008 and October 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Cox regression were used to analyze the effects of clinical features on OS and PFS. Based on the variables screened by multivariable analysis, a model was established to predict the survival of the patients. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (timeROC) curve was constructed to evaluate the performance of this model. The model was further verified by bootstrap validation. The clinical usefulness of the model was evaluated by the decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

During follow up, 39 patients died and 49 patients developed recurrence. Pre-ablation CA199 level > 140 U/ml was the only independent predictor of poor PFS. Age > 70 years, early recurrence, maximal diameter of tumor size > 1.5 cm and pre-ablation CA199 level > 140 U/ml were significantly associated with poor OS. Then a model was established based on the above four variables. The areas under the timeROC curve (AUC) for 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, 5-year were 0.767, 0.854, 0.791 and 0.848, respectively. After bootstrapping for 1000 repetitions, the AUCs were similar to the initial model. DCA also demonstrated that the model had good positive net benefits.

CONCLUSION

The established model in this study could predict the survival outcomes of the patients with iCCA after thermal ablation, but further research was needed to validate the results.

Anatomic versus non-anatomic liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma-A European multicentre cohort study in cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing in the western world over the past decades. As liver resection (LR) represents one of the most efficient treatment options, advantages of anatomic (ALR) versus non-anatomic liver resection (NALR) show a lack of consistent evidence. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate complications and survival rates after both resection types.

METHODS

This is a multicentre cohort study using retrospectively and prospectively collected data. We included all patients undergoing LR for HCC between 2009 and 2020 from three specialised centres in Switzerland and Germany. Complication and survival rates after ALR versus NALR were analysed using uni- and multivariate Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Two hundred and ninety-eight patients were included. Median follow-up time was 52.76 months. 164/298 patients (55%) underwent ALR. Significantly more patients with cirrhosis received NALR (n = 94/134; p < 0.001). Complications according to the Clavien Dindo classification were significantly more frequent in the NALR group (p < 0.001). Liver failure occurred in 13% after ALR versus 8% after NALR (p < 0.215). Uni- and multivariate cox regression models showed no significant differences between the groups for recurrence free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Furthermore, cirrhosis had no significant impact on OS and RFS.

CONCLUSION

No significant differences on RFS and OS rates could be observed. Post-operative complications were significantly less frequent in the ALR group while liver specific complications were comparable between both groups. Subgroup analysis showed no significant influence of cirrhosis on the post-operative outcome of these patients.

Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Pulmonary Metastasis in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Based on Inflammatory Markers

BACKGROUND

Uncertainty surrounds the usefulness of inflammatory markers in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients for predicting postoperative pulmonary metastasis (PM). The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive value of inflammatory markers as well as to create a new nomogram model for predicting PM.

METHODS

Cox regression was utilized to identify independent prognostic variables and to create a nomogram that predicted PM for comparison with a validation cohort and other prediction systems. We retrospectively analyzed a total of 1109 cases with HCC were included.

RESULTS

The systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI) and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) were independent risk factors for PM, with a concordance index of .78 (95% CI: .74-.81) for the nomogram. The areas under the curve of the nomograms for PM predicted at 1-, 3-, and 5-year were .82 (95% CI: .77-.87), .82 (95% CI: .78-.87) and .81 (95% CI: .75-.86), respectively, which were better than those of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer and China liver cancer stage. Decision curve analyses demonstrated a broader range of nomogram threshold probabilities.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram based on SIRI and APRI can accurately predict postoperative PM in HCC.

Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Hepatitis B Virus-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Receiving Postoperative Adjuvant Transarterial Chemoembolization

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who are at significant risk of tumor recurrence and mortality can benefit from postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE). However, the benefits of PA-TACE remain unclear. Herein, we aimed to develop a model for predicting the prognosis of HBV-related patients who undergo PA-TACE and endeavored to guide individualized clinical treatment.

Methods

We included 432 HBV-related patients who underwent PA-TACE after curative resection were included. The dataset was divided into a training set (n=216) and an internal validation set (n=216). For identifying independent risk factors, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed. We derived a prognostic model from the training set that was internally validated. The concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and risk stratification were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram.

Results

Patients undergoing PA-TACE had significantly longer overall survival (OS) than those who did not undergo PA-TACE. Age, albumin levels, macrovascular invasion, tumor size, and, stages of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer were identified as independent risk variables and concluded into the nomogram to predict the OS of HBV-related patients who received PA-TACE. The nomogram's C-index values OS were 0.710 and 0.652 in the training and internal validation sets, respectively. Both time-dependent AUC and the calibration curve showed good discrimination and model fitness. The risk score -0.12 was kept as the cut-off value that would accurately divide patients into high-risk and low-risk groups; furthermore, the Kaplan-Meier curve showed a high discriminative ability of the model.

Conclusion

We developed a predictive model. comprising a formula and nomogram to predict the OS and provide risk stratification for HBV-related patients undergoing PA-TACE, which could contribute to suitable treatment options for this patient population.

Intraoperative blood transfusion does not impact overall and recurrence-free survival after curative hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma: A propensity-score-matched and inverse probability of treatment-weighted study

INTRODUCTION

Our primary objective was to determine if receiving intraoperative blood transfusion was a significant prognostic factor for overall and recurrence-free survival after curative resection of hepatic cellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODOLOGY

Between 2001 and 2018, 1092 patients with histologically proven primary HCC who underwent curative liver resection were retrospectively reviewed. Primary study endpoints were recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). The main analysis was undertaken using propensity-score matching (PSM) to minimize confounding and selection biases in the comparison of patients with or without transfusion.

RESULTS

There were 220 patients who received and 666 patients who did not receive intraoperative blood transfusion. The PSM cohort consisted of 163 pairs of patients. After PSM, the only perioperative outcome that appeared to significantly affect whether patients would receive blood transfusion was median blood loss (p = 0.001). In the PSM cohort, whether patients received blood transfusion was neither associated with OS (p = 0.759) nor RFS (p = 0.830). When the volume of blood transfusion was analyzed as a continuous variable, no significant dose-response relationship between blood transfusion volume and HR for OS and RFS was noted.

CONCLUSION

Intraoperative blood transfusion had no significant impact on the survival outcomes in patients who receive curative resection in primary HCC.