A preoperative model for predicting early recurrence in patients undergoing resection for single hepatocellular carcinoma

A simple model to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver resection

PURPOSE

Multiple studies have reported models for predicting early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver resection (LR). However, these models are too complex to use in daily practice. We aimed to develop a simple model.

METHOD

We enrolled 1133 patients with newly diagnosed HCC undergoing LR. The Kaplan - Meier method and log-rank test were used for survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards analysis to identify prognostic factors associated with early recurrence (i.e., recurrence within two years after LR).

RESULTS

Early recurrence was identified in 403 (35.1%) patients. In multivariate analysis, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) 20-399 vs. < 20 ng/ml (HR = 1.282 [95% confidence interval = 1.002-1.639]; p = 0.048); AFP ≥ 400 vs. < 20 ng/ml (HR = 1.755 [1.382-2.229]; p < 0.001); 7th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage 2 vs. 1 (HR = 1.958 [1.505-2.547]; p < 0.001); AJCC stage 3 vs. 1 (HR = 4.099 [3.043-5.520]; p < 0.001); and pathology-defined cirrhosis (HR = 1.46 [1.200-1.775]; p < 0.001) were associated with early recurrence. We constructed a predictive model with these variables, which provided three risk strata for recurrence-free survival (RFS): low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk, with two-year RFS of 79%, 57%, and 35%, respectively (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

We developed a simple model to predict early recurrence risk for patients undergoing LR for HCC.

Unraveling early recurrence of risk factors in Gallbladder cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is the most prevalent biliary tract tumor characterized by a high incidence of recurrence, even after curative-intent surgery. The object of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate the risk factors related to early recurrence (ER).

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science to identify published articles up to February 2024. Data on risk factors associated with ER reported by two or more studies were collected. Selection of different effect models based on data heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Out of 6497 initially identified articles based on our search strategies, only 5 were eligible and included in this meta-analysis and 12 ER-related factors were collected. The overall recurrence rate was reported between 32.3% and 61.0 %, and the ER rate ranged from 19.6% to 26.5 %. Concentrations of CA19-9 (OR 3.03 95 % CI 2.20-4.17) and CEA (OR 1.85 95 % CI 1.24-2.77), tumor differentiation (OR 2.79, 95 % CI 1.86-4.20), AJCC T stage (OR 7.64, 95%CI 3.40-17.18), lymphovascular invasion (OR 2.71, 95 % CI 1.83-4.03), perineural invasion (OR 2.71, 95 % CI 1.79-4.12), liver involvement (OR 5.69, 95%CI 3.78-8.56) and adjuvant therapy (OR 2.19, 95 % CI 1.06-4.55) were identified as the risk factors of ER.

CONCLUSION

This study may provide valuable insights for early identification of increased ER risk and making informed decisions regarding the comprehensive diagnosis and treatment of patients with GBC. To draw more definitive conclusions, there is a need for high-quality prospective studies involving multiple centers and diverse racial populations.

A preoperative risk score based on early recurrence for estimating outcomes after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma in the non-cirrhotic liver

BACKGROUND

Liver resection is the mainstay treatment option for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in the non-cirrhotic liver (NCL-HCC), but almost half of these patients will experience a recurrence within five years of surgery. Therefore, we aimed to develop a rationale-based risk evaluation tool to assist surgeons in recurrence-related treatment planning for NCL-HCC.

METHODS

We analyzed single-center data from 263 patients who underwent liver resection for NCL-HCC. Using machine learning modeling, we first determined an optimal cut-off point to discriminate early versus late relapses based on time to recurrence. We then constructed a risk score based on preoperative variables to forecast outcomes according to recurrence-free survival.

RESULTS

We computed an optimal cut-off point for early recurrence at 12 months post-surgery. We identified macroscopic vascular invasion, multifocal tumor, and spontaneous tumor rupture as predictor variables of outcomes associated with early recurrence and integrated them into a scoring system. We thus stratified, with high concordance, three groups of patients on a graduated scale of recurrence-related survival.

CONCLUSION

We constructed a preoperative risk score to estimate outcomes after liver resection in NCL-HCC patients. Hence, this score makes it possible to rationally stratify patients based on recurrence risk assessment for better treatment planning.

The clinical impact of early recurrence and its recurrence patterns in patients with gallbladder carcinoma after radical resection

BACKGROUND

It is common for patients with gallbladder carcinoma (GBC) to develop recurrence shortly after radical resection. We aimed to investigate the risk factors of early recurrence (ER) and its recurrence patterns and further analyze the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) on ER and non-ER patients for decision-making in clinical practice.

METHODS

A total of 276 patients who underwent radical resection for GBC were retrospectively analyzed. Factors associated with overall survival (OS) and recurrence free survival (RFS) were identified using the Cox proportional hazard regression model, whereas ER was investigated using univariate and multivariable logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The results indicated that 23.2% (64/276) of GBC patients developed ER after radical resection. ER was determined to be an independent risk factor for OS in patients with GBC after resection (P < 0.05). CA125, liver invasion, T stage, and N stage were independently associated with ER (P < 0.05). N1/N2 stage disease was an independent risk factor for OS, RFS and ER, and had a better predictive value in identifying ER than the other three variables associated with ER (P < 0.05). The liver and lymph nodes were the main first recurrence sites, and ER patients had a higher proportion of multisite recurrence. The prognosis of GBC patients with ER after radical resection differed significantly depending on whether ACT was provided, with ACT demonstrated to improve their prognosis (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Early recurrence after radical resection indicates a very poor prognosis in GBC and can be used to identify those who will benefit from ACT.

Revolutionising hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: Harnessing contrast-enhanced ultrasound and serological indicators for postoperative early recurrence prediction

This study aimed to develop a noninvasive predictive model for identifying early postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (within 2 years after surgery) based on contrast-enhanced ultrasound and serum biomarkers. Additionally, the model's validity was assessedthrough internal and external validation. Clinical data were collected from patients who underwent liver resection at the First Hospital of Quanzhou and Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital. The data included general information, contrast-enhanced ultrasound parameters, Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) classification, and serum biomarkers. The data from Mengchao Hospital were divided into 2 groups, with a ratio of 6:4, to form the modeling and internal validation sets, respectively. On the other hand, the data from the First Hospital of Quanzhou served as the external validation group. The developed model was named the Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Recurrence (HCC-ER) prediction model. The predictive efficiency of the HCC-ER model was compared with other established models. The baseline characteristics were found to be well-balanced across the modeling, internal validation, and external validation groups. Among the independent risk factors identified for early recurrence, LI-RADS classification, alpha-fetoprotein, and tumor maximum diameter exhibited hazard ratios of 1.352, 1.337, and 1.135 respectively. Regarding predictive accuracy, the HCC-ER, Tumour-Node-Metastasis, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, and China Liver Cancer models demonstrated prediction errors of 0.196, 0.204, 0.201, and 0.200 in the modeling group; 0.215, 0.215, 0.218, and 0.212 in the internal validation group; 0.210, 0.215, 0.216, and 0.221 in the external validation group. Using the HCC-ER model, risk scores were calculated for all patients, and a cutoff value of 50 was selected. This cutoff effectively distinguished the high-risk recurrence group from the low-risk recurrence group in the modeling, internal validation, and external validation groups. However, the calibration curve of the predictive model slightly overestimated the risk of recurrence. The HCC-ER model developed in this study demonstrated high accuracy in predicting early recurrence within 2 years after hepatectomy. It provides valuable information for developing precise treatment strategies in clinical practice and holds considerable promise for further clinical implementation.