Explainable Gated Recurrent Unit to explore the effect of co-exposure to multiple air pollutants and meteorological conditions on mental health outcomes

Leveraging data science and machine learning for urban climate adaptation in two major African cities: a HE2AT Center study protocol

INTRODUCTION

African cities, particularly Abidjan and Johannesburg, face challenges of rapid urban growth, informality and strained health services, compounded by increasing temperatures due to climate change. This study aims to understand the complexities of heat-related health impacts in these cities. The objectives are: (1) mapping intraurban heat risk and exposure using health, socioeconomic, climate and satellite imagery data; (2) creating a stratified heat-health forecast model to predict adverse health outcomes; and (3) establishing an early warning system for timely heatwave alerts. The ultimate goal is to foster climate-resilient African cities, protecting disproportionately affected populations from heat hazards.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The research will acquire health-related datasets from eligible adult clinical trials or cohort studies conducted in Johannesburg and Abidjan between 2000 and 2022. Additional data will be collected, including socioeconomic, climate datasets and satellite imagery. These resources will aid in mapping heat hazards and quantifying heat-health exposure, the extent of elevated risk and morbidity. Outcomes will be determined using advanced data analysis methods, including statistical evaluation, machine learning and deep learning techniques.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been approved by the Wits Human Research Ethics Committee (reference no: 220606). Data management will follow approved procedures. The results will be disseminated through workshops, community forums, conferences and publications. Data deposition and curation plans will be established in line with ethical and safety considerations.

A Review of the Interactive Effects of Climate and Air Pollution on Human Health in China

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Through a systematic search of peer-reviewed epidemiologic studies, we reviewed the literature on the human health impacts of climate and ambient air pollution, focusing on recently published studies in China. Selected previous literature is discussed where relevant in tracing the origins.

RECENT FINDINGS

Climate variables and air pollution have a complex interplay in affecting human health. The bulk of the literature we reviewed focuses on the air pollutants ozone and fine particulate matter and temperatures (including hot and cold extremes). The interaction between temperature and ozone presented substantial interaction, but evidence about the interactive effects of temperature with other air pollutants is inconsistent. Most included studies used a time-series design, usually with daily mean temperature and air pollutant concentration as independent variables. Still, more needs to be studied about the co-occurrence of climate and air pollution. The co-occurrence of extreme climate and air pollution events is likely to become an increasing health risk in China and many parts of the world as climate changes. Climate change can interact with air pollution exposure to amplify risks to human health. Challenges and opportunities to assess the combined effect of climate variables and air pollution on human health are discussed in this review. Implications from epidemiological studies for implementing coordinated measures and policies for addressing climate change and air pollution will be critical areas of future work.

Quantifying source contributions to ambient NH3 using Geo-AI with time lag and parcel tracking functions

Ambient ammonia (NH3) plays an important compound in forming particulate matters (PMs), and therefore, it is crucial to comprehend NH3's properties in order to better reduce PMs. However, it is not easy to achieve this goal due to the limited range/real-time NH3 data monitored by the air quality stations. While there were other studies to predict NH3 and its source apportionment, this manuscript provides a novel method (i.e., GEO-AI)) to look into NH3 predictions and their contribution sources. This study represents a pioneering effort in the application of a novel geospatial-artificial intelligence (Geo-AI) base model with parcel tracking functions. This innovative approach seamlessly integrates various machine learning algorithms and geographic predictor variables to estimate NH3 concentrations, marking the first instance of such a comprehensive methodology. The Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) was used to further analyze source contribution of NH3 with domain knowledge. From 2016 to 2018, Taichung's hourly average NH3 values were predicted with total variance up to 96%. SHAP values revealed that waterbody, traffic and agriculture emissions were the most significant factors to affect NH3 concentrations in Taichung among all the characteristics. Our methodology is a vital first step for shaping future policies and regulations and is adaptable to regions with limited monitoring sites.

Use of feature importance statistics to accurately predict asthma attacks using machine learning: A cross-sectional cohort study of the US population

BACKGROUND

Asthma attacks are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in vulnerable populations, and identification of associations with asthma attacks is necessary to improve public awareness and the timely delivery of medical interventions.

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to identify feature importance of factors associated with asthma in a representative population of US adults.

METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis was conducted using a modern, nationally representative cohort, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES 2017-2020). All adult patients greater than 18 years of age (total of 7,922 individuals) with information on asthma attacks were included in the study. Univariable regression was used to identify significant nutritional covariates to be included in a machine learning model and feature importance was reported. The acquisition and analysis of the data were authorized by the National Center for Health Statistics Ethics Review Board.

RESULTS

7,922 patients met the inclusion criteria in this study. The machine learning model had 55 out of a total of 680 features that were found to be significant on univariate analysis (P<0.0001 used). In the XGBoost model the model had an Area Under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (AUROC) = 0.737, Sensitivity = 0.960, NPV = 0.967. The top five highest ranked features by gain, a measure of the percentage contribution of the covariate to the overall model prediction, were Octanoic Acid intake as a Saturated Fatty Acid (SFA) (gm) (Gain = 8.8%), Eosinophil percent (Gain = 7.9%), BMXHIP-Hip Circumference (cm) (Gain = 7.2%), BMXHT-standing height (cm) (Gain = 6.2%) and HS C-Reactive Protein (mg/L) (Gain 6.1%).

CONCLUSION

Machine Learning models can additionally offer feature importance and additional statistics to help identify associations with asthma attacks.