Short-term effects of cold spells on plasma viscosity: Results from the KORA cohort study in Augsburg, Germany

Stroke risk associated with cold spells occurring during the warm season

BACKGROUND

Recent climate changes have resulted in a rising frequency of extreme cold events that take place during the warm season. Few studies have investigated the impact of these warm-season cold spells on cardiovascular health. Here, we aimed to investigate the potential relationship between exposure to relatively low temperature exposure during the warm season and stroke risk.

METHODS

We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study using a validated, complete, and detailed registration of all stroke cases in the city of Augsburg, Germany, from 2006 to 2020 to assess the association between the occurrence of stroke and exposure to cold spell events during the warm season (May-October). Six cold spell definitions were created using different relative temperature thresholds (1st, 2.5th, and 5th percentiles) and durations (more than 1-2 consecutive days). Conditional logistic regression with distributed lag models was then applied to assess the accumulated effects of these warm-season cold spells on stroke risk over a lag period of 0-6 days, with adjustments for daily mean temperature.

RESULTS

Results confirmed that warm-season cold spells were significantly linked to an elevated risk of stroke with effects that could persist three days after exposure. The cumulative odds ratio (OR) estimates for the cold spells using the 2.5th percentile as air temperature threshold reached 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09-1.53) and 1.23 (95%CI: 1.05-1.44) for durations more than one and two days, respectively. Warm-season cold spells also had significant associations with both transient ischemic attacks and ischemic strokes. The stratified analysis showed that the elderly population (aged ≥ 65 years), females, and stroke cases characterized by minor symptoms demonstrated a significantly increased stroke risk of the effects of warm season cold spells.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents strong evidence for an overlooked association between warm-season cold spells and an increased risk of stroke occurrence. These findings further highlight the multifaceted ways in which climate change can affect human health.

Associations between cold spells of different time types and coronary heart disease severity

Limited evidence showed the association between cold spells and the severity of coronary heart disease (CHD). This study was to investigate the association between cold spells with their different time types and CHD severity. We collected data on CHD patients admitted to the Zhongnan Hospital, Wuhan, China from 2016 to 2021. CHD severity was quantified using the SYNTAX score and transformed into a binomial variable. Daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature were collected during the study period. We first used daily mean temperature to find the optimum definition among multiple thresholds and durations. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures were used to define different types of cold spells (daytime, nighttime and compound) based on the optimum definition. Annual cold spell days were included to assess individual exposure to cold spells. Logistic regression models were performed to fit the association between cold spell days and CHD severity stratified by different tertiles of PM2.5 and NDVI. In this study, 1937 CHD patients were included. The cold spell defined as at least four consecutive days with daily mean temperature below the 5th percentile exhibited the optimum model. We found that a 4-day increase in cold spell days was associated with more severe CHD (OR = 1.170, 95% CI: 1.074, 1.282). Such an association was more pronounced under higher levels of PM2.5 by OR = 1.270 (1.086, 1.494) and lower levels of greenness by OR = 1.240 (1.044, 1.476). Compared with daytime and compound cold spells, nighttime cold spells showed the strongest association with CHD severity by OR = 1.141 (1.026, 1.269). This study showed that exposure to cold spells was positively associated with CHD severity, especially the nighttime cold spells. The association between cold spells and CHD severity was more significant in high levels of PM2.5 and low levels of greenness.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study

BACKGROUND

Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells.

METHODS

A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model with a lag period of up to 21 days. Second, we built a multivariate meta-regression model between location-specific associations and seven predictors. Finally, we predicted the global grid-specific cold spell-related mortality associations during 2000-19 using the fitted meta-regression model and the yearly grid-specific meta-predictors. We calculated the annual excess deaths, excess death ratio (excess deaths per 1000 deaths), and excess death rate (excess deaths per 100 000 population) due to cold spells for each grid across the world.

FINDINGS

Globally, 205 932 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 162 692-250 337) excess deaths, representing 3·81 (95% eCI 2·93-4·71) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio), and 3·03 (2·33-3·75) excess deaths per 100 000 population (excess death rate) were associated with cold spells per year between 2000 and 2019. The annual average global excess death ratio in 2016-19 increased by 0·12 percentage points and the excess death rate in 2016-19 increased by 0·18 percentage points, compared with those in 2000-03. The mortality burden varied geographically. The excess death ratio and rate were highest in Europe, whereas these indicators were lowest in Africa. Temperate climates had higher excess death ratio and rate associated with cold spells than other climate zones.

INTERPRETATION

Cold spells are associated with substantial mortality burden around the world with geographically varying patterns. Although the number of cold spells has on average been decreasing since year 2000, the public health threat of cold spells remains substantial. The findings indicate an urgency of taking local and regional measures to protect the public from the mortality burdens of cold spells.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, EU's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion.

The impact of winter warming and more frequent icing events on reindeer herder occupational safety, health, and wellbeing

BACKGROUND

Northern Finland, like the rest of the Arctic, has experienced increases in mean annual temperature, the number of winter rains, the number of thaw-freeze days, the number of extremely warm weather events, and a shortened snow season. These changes have produced numerous problems for reindeer herders whose livelihoods rely on a healthy ecosystem with predictable weather patterns.

METHODS

We performed a scoping literature review to assess how climate change induced extreme weather has negatively impacted reindeer herding as well as the health and wellbeing of reindeer herders.

RESULTS

Late snow cover negatively impacts reindeer herding through a more widely dispersed herd that increases the work to gather reindeer, leads to reduced calf weight, and results in less meat for sale. This increased labor, especially in extreme cold conditions, can also negatively impact reindeer herder health. Icing due to thaw-freeze and rain-on-snow events makes it impossible for reindeer to dig through the snow to access lichens, increasing the need for reindeer herders to keep the herd in winter enclosures and provide supplemental feed.

CONCLUSION

Climate change induced weather events such as late snow cover and icing increase reindeer herder efforts and expenses, put their livelihood at risk, and put their health at risk.

Non-optimum temperature increases risk and burden of acute myocardial infarction onset: A nationwide case-crossover study at hourly level in 324 Chinese cities

BACKGROUND

The associations of ambient temperature with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have seldom been examined based on the time of symptom onset.

METHODS

We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study among 1,046,773 eligible AMI patients from 2,093 hospitals in 324 Chinese cities from January 1, 2015 to June 30, 2021, after excluding those transferred from other hospitals or having not reported the time of symptom onset. Hourly exposure to ambient temperature was calculated as multiple moving 24-h averages (days) before hourly onset of AMI symptoms. Conditional logistic regression and distributed lag non-linear models with a duration of 0-21 days were used to estimate the cumulative associations of non-optimum temperature with AMI onset and the corresponding disease burden nationally. Subgroup analyses by region and period were conducted. Specifically, cities with and without centralized heating system were classified into heating and non-heating regions, respectively. The whole year in heating region was divided into heating and non-heating periods based on the duration of centralized heating in each city.

FINDINGS

Almost monotonically increasing risks were observed for both overall AMI and its two subtypes when ambient temperature declined. The effects of extremely low temperature occurred immediately on the concurrent day, and lasted up to almost 3 weeks. The excess risks of AMI onset associated with non-optimum ambient temperatures were observed during the whole year in the non-heating region and non-heating period in the heating region, but not during heating period. Specifically, odds ratios of AMI onset associated with extremely low temperature cumulated over 0-21 days were 1.24 (95% CI: 1.13-1.37), 1.46 (95% CI: 1.20-1.76), and 1.62 (95% CI: 1.46-1.81) in the heating region during non-heating period, in the non-heating region during winter and non-winter period, respectively. The heat effects on AMI onset were very modest and transient. Totally, 13.26% of AMI cases could be attributable to non-optimum temperatures nationally. The burden of AMI attributable to non-optimum temperature was much smaller in heating region than in non-heating region. Somewhat stronger effects were observed in females and patients aged older than 65.

INTERPRETATION

This nationwide study provided robust evidence that non-optimum ambient temperature may significantly trigger AMI onset, and for the first time estimated the disease burden after accounting for spatial and seasonal heterogeneity. Centralized heating might substantially mitigate AMI burden due to non-optimum temperature.

FUNDING

Shanghai International Science and Technology Partnership Project, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Talent Training Program of Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University.