Trends and gaps in climate change and health research in North America

Future temperature-related excess mortality under climate change and population aging scenarios in Canada

OBJECTIVE

Climate change is expected to increase global temperatures. How temperature-related mortality risk will change is not completely understood, and how future demographic changes will affect temperature-related mortality needs to be clarified. We evaluate temperature-related mortality across Canada until 2099, accounting for age groups and scenarios of population growth.

METHODS

We used daily counts of non-accidental mortality for 2000 to 2015 for all 111 health regions across Canada, incorporating in the study both urban and rural areas. A two-part time series analysis was used to estimate associations between mean daily temperatures and mortality. First, current and future daily mean temperature time series simulations were developed from Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from past and projected climate change scenarios under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Next, excess mortality due to heat and cold and the net difference were projected to 2099, also accounting for different regional and population aging scenarios.

RESULTS

For 2000 to 2015, we identified 3,343,311 non-accidental deaths. On average, a net increase of 17.31% (95% eCI: 13.99, 20.62) in temperature-related excess mortality under a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario is expected for Canada in 2090-2099, which represents a greater burden than a scenario that assumed strong levels of greenhouse gas mitigation policies (net increase of 3.29%; 95% eCI: 1.41, 5.17). The highest net increase was observed among people aged 65 and over, and the largest increases in both net and heat- and cold-related mortality were observed in population scenarios that incorporated the highest rates of aging.

CONCLUSION

Canada may expect net increases in temperature-related mortality under a higher emissions climate change scenario, compared to one assuming sustainable development. Urgent action is needed to mitigate future climate change impacts.

Methods for Quantifying, Projecting, and Managing the Health Risks of Climate Change

Quantifying Health Risks of Climate ChangeA rapidly increasing literature base is quantifying associations between climate change and health outcomes. Here, Ebi reviews methods for quantifying, projecting, and managing the health risks of climate change.

A state-of-the-art review of CO2 enhanced oil recovery as a promising technology to achieve carbon neutrality in China

Although there are some review papers on carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), hardly any of these reviews are focused on the role of CO₂ enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in accelerating carbon neutrality in China. In this review, strategies to achieve carbon neutrality is briefly but critically discussed, followed by a review of CO₂-EOR as a promising technology. Especially, data analysis, including the number of publications on China's carbon neutrality, per capita CO₂ emissions, China's power generation, and the crude oil production of China's large oilfields, is carried out to make the discussion more comprehensive. Given the large amount of coal consumed in China, the high percent of electricity generated with coal, and the slow penetration of renewables already observed, it seems unlikely that 2060 targets will be met without CCUS. In order to achieve carbon neutrality, both reduction in carbon emissions and increase in carbon sequestration are inevitable. Furthermore, it is concluded that CO₂ storage through EOR is likely to have a bright future. However, there are some critical issues to be solved, including the technical issues, leakage and safety issues, cost issues, policy issues, etc. In order to turn CO₂-EOR into a reliable and more favorable technology, more research and efforts are needed to solve these issues, including advancing carbon capture technologies, improving storage technologies, developing effective monitoring technologies, deploying government support and incentive policies, etc.

Decolonizing Digital Citizen Science: Applying the Bridge Framework for Climate Change Preparedness and Adaptation

Research has historically exploited Indigenous communities, particularly in the medical and health sciences, due to the dominance of discriminatory colonial systems. In many regions across Canada and worldwide, historical and continued injustices have worsened health among Indigenous Peoples. Global health crises such as climate change are most adversely impacting Indigenous communities, as their strong connection to the land means that even subtle changes in the environment can disproportionately affect local food and health systems. As we explore strategies for climate change preparedness and adaptation, Indigenous Peoples have a wealth of Traditional Knowledge to tackle specific climate and related health issues. If combined with digital citizen science, data collection by citizens within a community could provide relevant and timely information about specific jurisdictions. Digital devices such as smartphones, which have widespread ownership, can enable equitable participation in citizen science projects to obtain big data for mitigating and managing climate change impacts. Informed by a Two-Eyed Seeing approach, a decolonized lens to digital citizen science can advance climate change adaptation and preparedness efforts. This paper describes the ‘Bridge Framework’ for decolonizing digital citizen science using a case study with a subarctic Indigenous community in Saskatchewan, Canada.

Climate change is impacting mental health in North America: A systematic scoping review of the hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, risks and responses

As climate change progresses, it is crucial that researchers and policymakers understand the ways in which climate-mental health risks arise through interactions between climate hazards, human exposure and social vulnerabilities across time and location. This scoping review systematically examined the nature, range and extent of published research in North America that investigates climate-mental health interactions. Five electronic databases were searched and two independent reviewers applied pre-determined criteria to assess the eligibility of articles identified in the search. Eighty-nine articles were determined to be relevant and underwent data extraction and analysis. The published literature reported on numerous exposure pathways through which acute and chronic climate hazards interacted with social vulnerabilities to increase mental health risks, including wellbeing, trauma, anxiety, depression, suicide and substance use. This review also highlights important gaps within the North American climate-mental health evidence base, including minimal research conducted in Mexico, as well as a lack of studies investigating climate-mental health adaptation strategies and projected future mental health risks. Further research should support effective preparation for and adaptation to the current and future mental health impacts of climate change. Such strategies could reduce health risks and the long-term mental health impacts that individuals and communities experience in a changing climate.

The Food Equity and Environmental Data Sovereignty (FEEDS) Project: Protocol for a Quasi-Experimental Study Evaluating a Digital Platform for Climate Change Preparedness

Background

Despite having the tools at our disposal to enable an adequate food supply for all people, inequities in food acquisition, distribution, and most importantly, food sovereignty, worsen food insecurity. The detrimental impact of climate change on food systems and mental health is further exacerbated by a lack of food sovereignty. We urgently require innovative solutions to enable food sovereignty, minimize food insecurity, and address climate change–related mental distress (ie, solastalgia). Indigenous communities have a wealth of Traditional Knowledge for climate change adaptation and preparedness to strengthen food systems. Traditional Knowledge combined with Western methods can revolutionize ethical data collection, engagement, and knowledge mobilization.

Objective

The Food Equity and Environmental Data Sovereignty (FEEDS) Project takes a participatory action, citizen science approach for early detection and warning of climate change impacts on food sovereignty, food security, and solastalgia. The aim of this project is to develop and implement a sustainable digital platform that enables real-time decision-making to mitigate climate change–related impacts on food systems and mental well-being.

Methods

Citizen science enables citizens to actively contribute to all aspects of the research process. The FEEDS Project is being implemented in five phases: participatory project planning, digital climate change platform customization, community-led evaluation, digital platform and project refinement, and integrated knowledge translation. The project is governed by a Citizen Scientist Advisory Council comprising Elders, Traditional Knowledge Keepers, key community decision makers, youth, and FEEDS Project researchers. The Council governs all phases of the project, including coconceptualizing a climate change platform, which consists of a smartphone app and a digital decision-making dashboard. Apart from capturing environmental and health-related big data (eg, weather, permafrost degradation, fire hazards, and human movement), the custom-built app uses artificial intelligence to engage and enable citizens to report on environmental hazards, changes in biodiversity or wildlife, and related food and mental health issues in their communities. The app provides citizens with valuable information to mitigate health-related risks and relays big data in real time to a digital dashboard.

Results

This project is currently in phase 1, with the subarctic Métis jurisdiction of Île-à-la-Crosse, Saskatchewan, Canada.

Conclusions

The FEEDS Project facilitates Indigenous Peoples’ self-determination, governance, and data sovereignty. All citizen data are anonymous and encrypted, and communities have ownership, access, control, and possession of their data. The digital dashboard system provides decision makers with real-time data, thereby increasing the capacity to self-govern. The participatory action research approach, combined with digital citizen science, advances the cocreation of knowledge and multidisciplinary collaboration in the digital age. Given the urgency of climate change, leveraging technology provides communities with tools to respond to existing and emerging crises in a timely manner, as well as scientific evidence regarding the urgency of current health and environmental issues.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

PRR1-10.2196/31389