Assessing the impact of temperature and humidity exposures during early infection stages on case-fatality of COVID-19: A modelling study in Europe

Age, gender, and race differences in nasal morphology: Linking air conditioning and filtration efficiency to disparities in air pollution health outcomes and COVID-19 mortality

COVID-19 mortality disparities underscore the critical role of environmental factors, age, sex, and racial demographics. This study investigates how individual variations in nasal morphology - specifically its air conditioning (temperature and humidity regulation) and filtration functions - may influence respiratory health and contribute to differential COVID-19 outcomes. Analysis reveals significant differences in nasal structure and function across racial, sex, and age groups, demonstrating associations with disparities in respiratory vulnerability to environmental stressors such as air pollution, infectious aerosols, and climatic conditions. Specifically, wider nasal cavities (more common in certain populations), larger male nasal passages, and age-related changes like mucosal atrophy and increased endonasal volume impair air conditioning and filtration efficiency. These morphological variations influence the nose's protective capacity, which is critical for shielding the middle and lower airways from environmental exposures. Populations with inherently reduced nasal filtration and conditioning efficiency demonstrate higher vulnerability, aligning with U.S. mortality patterns for both COVID-19 and air pollution across demographic groups. This suggests a direct link between nasal anatomy and population-level health disparities. These findings provide novel insights into the role of nasal anatomy in mediating respiratory health disparities by modulating individual responses to environmental exposures, air pollution, and pathogens. They highlight the need to address critical gaps in understanding how airway characteristics influence susceptibility to environmental stressors and to develop targeted interventions aimed at reducing health disparities.

Association of air pollution and weather conditions during infection course with COVID-19 case fatality rate in the United Kingdom

Although the relationship between the environmental factors, such as weather conditions and air pollution, and COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) has been found, the impacts of these factors to which infected cases are exposed at different infectious stages (e.g., virus exposure time, incubation period, and at or after symptom onset) are still unknown. Understanding this link can help reduce mortality rates. During the first wave of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom (UK), the CFR varied widely between and among the four countries of the UK, allowing such differential impacts to be assessed. We developed a generalized linear mixed-effect model combined with distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the odds ratio of the weather factors (i.e., temperature, sunlight, relative humidity, and rainfall) and air pollution (i.e., ozone, [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]) using data between March 26, 2020 and September 15, 2020 in the UK. After retrospectively time adjusted CFR was estimated using back-projection technique, the stepwise model selection method was used to choose the best model based on Akaike information criteria and the closeness between the predicted and observed values of CFR. The risk of death reached its maximum level when the low temperature (6 °C) occurred 1 day before (OR 1.59; 95% CI 1.52-1.63), prolonged sunlight duration (11-14 h) 3 days after (OR 1.24; 95% CI 1.18-1.30) and increased [Formula: see text] (19 μg/m3) 1 day after the onset of symptom (OR 1.12; 95% CI 1.09-1.16). After reopening, many COVID-19 cases will be identified after their symptoms appear. The findings highlight the importance of designing different preventive measures against severe illness or death considering the time before and after symptom onset.

The effect of the urban exposome on COVID-19 health outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The global severity of SARS-CoV-2 illness has been associated with various urban characteristics, including exposure to ambient air pollutants. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to synthesize findings from ecological and non-ecological studies to investigate the impact of multiple urban-related features on a variety of COVID-19 health outcomes.

METHODS

On December 5, 2022, PubMed was searched to identify all types of observational studies that examined one or more urban exposome characteristics in relation to various COVID-19 health outcomes such as infection severity, the need for hospitalization, ICU admission, COVID pneumonia, and mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 38 non-ecological and 241 ecological studies were included in this review. Non-ecological studies highlighted the significant effects of population density, urbanization, and exposure to ambient air pollutants, particularly PM2.5. The meta-analyses revealed that a 1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with a higher likelihood of COVID-19 hospitalization (pooled OR 1.08 (95% CI:1.02-1.14)) and death (pooled OR 1.06 (95% CI:1.03-1.09)). Ecological studies, in addition to confirming the findings of non-ecological studies, also indicated that higher exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), sulphur dioxide (SO2), and carbon monoxide (CO), as well as lower ambient temperature, humidity, ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and less green and blue space exposure, were associated with increased COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review has identified several key vulnerability features related to urban areas in the context of the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The findings underscore the importance of improving policies related to urban exposures and implementing measures to protect individuals from these harmful environmental stressors.

Identification of critical SARS-CoV-2 amino acids associated with COVID-19 hospitalization rate using machine learning and statistical modeling: An observational study in the United States

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has put many medical systems on the verge of collapse in the last two years. Virus mutation was one of the important factors affecting the COVID-19 infection severity and hospitalizations. Although over ten thousand SARS-CoV-2 mutations being reported since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, only a small percentage of mutations are likely to affect the virus phenotype and change its severity. Finding out which amino acids have the greatest impact on COVID-19 hospitalization rate is an important research question.

METHODS

This observational study used the COVID-19 case hospitalization ratio (CHR) to represent the virus severity related with hospitalization. The database is based on the daily state-level epidemiological and genomic sequential data in the United States from the Alpha wave to the first Omicron wave. The critical amino acids that mostly affected the CHR were determined by using four types of models including extreme gradient boosting decision trees (XGBoost), artificial neural networks (ANNs), logistic regression and Lasso regression models.

RESULTS

The XGBoost, ANN, logistic regression, and Lasso regression models all produce excellent results (mean square error for all state-level models does not exceed 0.0008 using the testing dataset). Based on the rank of importance of all covariates, the critical amino acids most affecting the CHR were identified, including T19, L24, P25, P26, A27, A67, H69, V70, T95, G142, V143, Y145, E156, F157, N211, L212, V213, R214, D215, G339, R346, S373, L452, S477, T478, E484, N501, A570, P681, and T716.

CONCLUSION

This study identified critical amino acids that are most likely to affect the hospitalization rate, allowing public health workers to monitor these highly risky amino acids and raise an alarm immediately when more severe mutations occur. Furthermore, the methodology and results may be extended to other regions.

Association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 transmission in low- and middle-income countries: A time-stratified case-crossover study

BACKGROUND

Evidence is limited regarding the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 transmission in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the independent and interactive effects of temperature, relative humidity (RH), and ultraviolet (UV) radiation on the spread of COVID-19 in LMICs.

METHODS

We collected daily data on COVID-19 confirmed cases, meteorological factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in 2143 city- and district-level sites from 6 LMICs during 2020. We applied a time-stratified case-crossover design with distributed lag nonlinear model to evaluate the independent and interactive effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19 transmission after controlling NPIs. We generated an overall estimate through pooling site-specific relative risks (RR) using a multivariate meta-regression model.

RESULTS

There was a positive, non-linear, association between temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases in all study sites, while RH and UV showed negative non-linear associations. RR of the 90th percentile temperature (28.1 °C) was 1.14 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.28] compared with the 50th percentile temperature (24.4 °C). RR of the10th percentile UV was 1.41 (95% CI: 1.29, 1.54). High temperature and high RH were associated with increased risks in temperate climate but decreased risks in tropical climate, while UV exhibited a consistent, negative association across climate zones. Temperature, RH, and UV interacted to affect COVID-19 transmission. Temperature and RH also showed higher risks in low NPIs sites.

CONCLUSION

Temperature, RH, and UV appeared to independently and interactively affect the transmission of COVID-19 in LMICs but such associations varied with climate zones. Our results suggest that more attention should be paid to meteorological variation when the transmission of COVID-19 is still rampant in LMICs.