An econometric analysis of SARS and Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia

Nowcasting tourist nights spent using innovative human mobility data

The publication of tourism statistics often does not keep up with the highly dynamic tourism demand trends, especially critical during crises. Alternative data sources such as digital traces and web searches represent an important source to potentially fill this gap, since they are generally timely, and available at detailed spatial scale. In this study we explore the potential of human mobility data from the Google Community Mobility Reports to nowcast the number of monthly nights spent at sub-national scale across 11 European countries in 2020, 2021, and the first half of 2022. Using a machine learning implementation, we found that this novel data source is able to predict the tourism demand with high accuracy, and we compare its potential in the tourism domain to web search and mobile phone data. This result paves the way for a more frequent and timely production of tourism statistics by researchers and statistical entities, and their usage to support tourism monitoring and management, although privacy and surveillance concerns still hinder an actual data innovation transition.

Understanding changing public transit travel patterns of urban visitors during COVID-19: A multi-stage study

COVID-19 has caused huge disruptions to urban travel and mobility. As a critical transportation mode in cities, public transit was hit hardest. In this study, we analyze public transit usage of urban visitors with a nearly two-year smart card dataset collected in Jeju, South Korea - a major tourism city in the Asia Pacific. The dataset captures transit usage behavior of millions of domestic visitors who traveled to Jeju between January 1, 2019 and September 30, 2020. By identifying a few key pandemic stages based on COVID-19 timeline, we employ ridge regression models to investigate the impact of pandemic severity on transit ridership. We then derive a set of mobility indicators - from perspectives of trip frequency, spatial diversity, and travel range - to quantify how individual visitors used the transit system during their stay in Jeju. By further employing time series decomposition, we extract the trend component for each mobility indicator to study long-term dynamics of visitors' mobility behavior. According to the regression analysis, the pandemic had a dampening effect on public transit ridership. The overall ridership was jointly affected by national and local pandemic situations. The time series decomposition result reveals a long-term decay of individual transit usage, hinting that visitors in Jeju tended to use the transit system more conservatively as the pandemic endured. The study provides critical insights into urban visitors' transit usage behavior during the pandemic and sheds light on how to restore tourism, public transit usage, and overall urban vibrancy with some policy suggestions.

Interpretable tourism volume forecasting with multivariate time series under the impact of COVID-19

This study proposes a novel interpretable framework to forecast the daily tourism volume of Jiuzhaigou Valley, Huangshan Mountain, and Siguniang Mountain in China under the impact of COVID-19 by using multivariate time-series data, particularly historical tourism volume data, COVID-19 data, the Baidu index, and weather data. For the first time, epidemic-related search engine data is introduced for tourism demand forecasting. A new method named the composition leading search index-variational mode decomposition is proposed to process search engine data. Meanwhile, to overcome the problem of insufficient interpretability of existing tourism demand forecasting, a new model of DE-TFT interpretable tourism demand forecasting is proposed in this study, in which the hyperparameters of temporal fusion transformers (TFT) are optimized intelligently and efficiently based on the differential evolution algorithm. TFT is an attention-based deep learning model that combines high-performance forecasting with interpretable analysis of temporal dynamics, displaying excellent performance in forecasting research. The TFT model produces an interpretable tourism demand forecast output, including the importance ranking of different input variables and attention analysis at different time steps. Besides, the validity of the proposed forecasting framework is verified based on three cases. Interpretable experimental results show that the epidemic-related search engine data can well reflect the concerns of tourists about tourism during the COVID-19 epidemic.

Recreational Visit to Suburban Forests during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Taiwan

COVID-19 global pandemic has caused massive disruption of travel behaviors along with other aspects of human life, such as social distancing, staying at home, and avoiding crowds. People substituted outdoor activities for indoor activities, and the forest environment has become a popular alternative. Taiwan has a high population density, but it had few COVID-19 confirmed cases in 2020 during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. No forest areas have been closed due to the COVID-19 outbreak. In light of this generally increased demand for suburban forests for recreational uses, the current COVID-19 pandemic situation poses specific challenges regarding forest use, management, and policy. This study integrates visitation numbers of the popular forest recreation area and selects the unblocking index and social distancing index as the COVID-19 index to capture the impacts of forest recreation area on the COVID-19 outbreak in Taiwan. The results show both COVID-19 indices have high explanatory power for suburban forest visitation and both have a significant impact on the number of visitors. Although the number of visitors to suburban forests decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic alert, it bounced when the COVID-19 outbreak was under control. This study provides a brief overview of management implications for recreational visits during COVID-19. We posed an early warning to forest managers for greater revenge traveling post-COVID-19.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on tourism geographies of Bangladesh: study on Sylhet region

This qualitative study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism geographies of Sylhet region in Bangladesh developing analytical linkages between pandemic and tourism geography. On the basis of in-depth interviews, the study explores micro effects on diverse actors involved in the tourism process of Sylhet division. As one of the emerging tourism hubs, why Sylhet region demands special treatment from local, national and international authorities and policymakers to mitigate the adverse effects of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, has been investigated in this paper. However, the central argument of the study is that the COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected the demand and supply chains, local businesses, transportations, hotels and restaurants, tea industry, corporations, and local professional lives due to the imposed restrictions on human mobility, causing a sharp decline in socio-economic activities of Sylhet's tourism geographies.

Public Social Media Discussions on Agricultural Product Safety Incidents: Chinese African Swine Fever Debate on Weibo

Public concern over major agricultural product safety incidents, such as swine flu and avian flu, can intensify financial losses in the livestock and poultry industries. Crawler technology were applied to reviewed the Weibo social media discussions on the African Swine Fever (ASF) incident in China that was reported on 3 August 2018, and used content analysis and network analysis to specifically examine the online public opinion network dissemination characteristics of verified individual users, institutional users and ordinary users. It was found that: (1) attention paid to topics related to "epidemic," "treatment," "effect" and "prevent" decrease in turn, with the interest in "prevent" increasing significantly when human infections were possible; (2) verified individual users were most concerned about epidemic prevention and control and play a supervisory role, the greatest concern of institutional users and ordinary users were issues related to agricultural industry and agricultural products price fluctuations respectively; (3) among institutional users, media was the main opinion leader, and among non-institutional users, elites from all walks of life, especially the food safety personnel acted as opinion leaders. Based on these findings, some policy suggestions are given: determine the nature of the risk to human health of the safety incident, stabilizing prices of relevant agricultural products, and giving play to the role of information dissemination of relevant institutions.

How does COVID-19 differ from previous crises? A comparative study of health-related crisis research in the tourism and hospitality context

The importance of the risk to tourism and hospitality operations from pandemic-related crises has increased. Therefore, the current study offers a literature review targeting tourism and hospitality stakeholders' perceptions of past diseases and has three objectives: (1) Explore major topics from previous research on infectious diseases using topic modeling; (2) compare non-COVID-19 and COVID-19 crises; (3) investigate research topics in the tourism and hospitality industries. To meet our research objectives, we reviewed published pandemic-related articles in the tourism and hospitality literature since the year 2000. Based on the results, we first identified nine key topics related to infectious diseases (i.e., policy, human resources, branding, resilience, technology, global or community change, risk perception, disease impact, and lifestyle). Second, we suggest the application of different topic weights in non-COVID-19 and COVID-19 research. Third, we found that it is appropriate to apply different topic weights in tourism and hospitality research.

COVID-19 and tourism: What can we learn from the past?

The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on tourism flows is without precedent in terms of speed and severity. In this paper, we try to infer a possible future scenario for the tourism sector, evaluating the medium-term effects of past pandemics on tourist arrivals. We find that pandemics lead to a persistent decline in tourist arrivals, with the effects being larger in developing and emerging countries. Interestingly, the effects are heterogeneous across countries and episodes, and depend on several economic conditions such as the overall health system performance, the severity of the shock, and the uncertainty induced by the pandemic event.

The impact of COVID-19 on European tourists' attitudes to air travel and the consequences for tourist destination evoked set formation

We study how risk conditions derived from the COVID-19 pandemic may impact on both the desire to travel and intention to visit of tourists and, therefore, on different stages of the destination choice process. We analyse 5134 million flight searches and 379 million flight picks during 2020 for the 17 largest European tourism source markets. An unweighted index number is employed to measure the average variation for searches and picks, for the year 2020, in relation to the reference base period (year 2019). This is done for air travel in general and to Spain specifically. The study then proceeds to conduct an analysis of 17 international travel destinations that are in the evoked sets of the two largest outbound markets in Europe (Germany and UK). We also identify which markets are most favourable to Spain. The research design can inform cost-efficient marketing decisions in a situation of high uncertainty.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on travelers' preference for crowded versus non-crowded options

Crowding is a critical determinant of consumers' satisfaction with and preferences for different shopping and travel situations. When considering a selection of travel and hospitality options, travelers are influenced by perceived crowding. This research examined how the current health crisis (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic) affects travelers' preferences for crowded and non-crowded options. Specifically, we predicted that travelers would have a diminished preference for crowded (vs. non-crowded) travel and hospitality options when the ongoing pandemic is salient. We demonstrated that the primary effect of the salience of the threat was persistent across different travel categories and contexts. We also found that travelers with high levels of sensation seeking and a high need for uniqueness show the opposite pattern, suggesting a possible recovery strategy from the pandemic. Five experimental studies provide several theoretical and managerial implications for travel and hospitality business marketers.

Measuring the Impact of Epidemic Outbreaks on Financial Results

The aim of the study is to analyze the impact of epidemic outbreaks on financial results on the example of the tourism industry in the world and therefore to emphasize decision-making process under uncertainty in economics. To measure the impact of epidemic outbreaks on financial results on the example of the Tourism Industry we use Hodrick & Prescott (1997), Stock & Watson (1999) and Hamilton (2018) approach on data from 1995 to 2019 (185 countries). The study results indicate that total (registered) direct costs of the epidemic outbreaks from 1980 to 2019 on the world level amounts to -95 billions US$ less in tourism spending and 56 million tourist arrivals drop. Total (potential) opportunity costs of epidemic crisis from 1980 to 2019 measured by the one-side HP filter worldwide equals -83 millions tourist arrivals and -126.7 US$ billions of tourist spending. Summary of our findings on estimates from the one-side (HP) (2009) and Hamilton’s filter (2018) declare opportunity costs have an important role in managing tourism demand. In case of practical implications, the effective decision making process in time of COVID-19 demands flexible and innovative growth models, long-term macroeconomic stability, effective epidemic measures, and state subsidies.

A Review of Research on Tourism Industry, Economic Crisis and Mitigation Process of the Loss: Analysis on Pre, During and Post Pandemic Situation

Throughout time, the global tourism industry and economy have been significantly affected by disasters and crises. At present, COVID-19 represents one of these disasters as it has been causing a serious economic downturn with huge implications in tourism. In this review paper, we have analysed more than 100 papers regarding the effect and consequences of a pandemic on tourism and related industries, the economic situation in countries and areas, and mitigation of the loss incurred due to pandemic situations. The article (1) is based on past research on tourism and economy, (2) examines the effects of a pandemic on listed sectors and mitigation processes, and (3) suggests future research and approaches to help progress the field. We have gathered and categorised the literature reviews into several parts. In addition, we have listed the name of authors, journal names, books, websites, and relevant data.

The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on hotels' value compared to previous diseases: the role of ALFO strategy

By using the Event Study Method (ESM), this paper aims to examine the effect of new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) disease (COVID-19) outbreak on the market performance of the hotel industry in the U.S. We also compare the impact of COVID-19 outbreak with three previous diseases outbreaks. The results show that there is a negative influence of the diseases outbreaks on stock returns of hotels in the U.S. However, the impact of COVID-19 is incomparably higher in magnitude compared to previous diseases. Furthermore, given the importance of following flexible corporate strategies to adapt to new and unpredicted situations, it is found that the ALFO (assets-light, fee-orientated) strategy acts as a mitigator for the predicted market value drop due to the pandemic.

How to survive a pandemic: The corporate resiliency of travel and leisure companies to the COVID-19 outbreak

What protects travel and leisure companies from a global pandemic, such as COVID-19? To answer this question, we investigate data on over 1200 travel and leisure companies in 52 countries. We consider 80 characteristics, such as company financial ratios, macroeconomic variables, and government policy responses. Using regressions and machine learning tools, we demonstrate that firms with low valuations, limited leverage, and high investments have been more immune to the pandemic-induced crash. We also find a beneficial effect of stringent containment and closure policies. Finally, our results indicate that countries with less individualism may be better positioned to cope with the pandemic. Our findings have implications for regulatory bodies, managers, and investors concerning future pandemic outbreaks.

Attendance and Perceived Constraints to Attendance at Zoological Gardens during the Spring 2020 COVID-19 Re-Opening: The Czechia Case

Zoos are one of the most visited tourist and leisure attractions. After all the important Central-European zoos closed in the spring of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a few weeks later they started to re-open. The main goal of this article is to evaluate how the number of visits developed after the first zoo re-openings and what specific factors limited attendances the most after the reopening, using the example of Czech zoos in May and June 2020. In addition to the information available on zoos’ online communication channels, the authors’ questionnaire survey data and attendance data provided by the zoos were used. The results indicate that the attendance was reduced the most by the obligation to buy tickets online, by the closure of state borders, and by a low limit on daily maximum number of visitors allowed. Different approaches to restricting zoos’ capacity are discussed and the use of the maximum number of people by surface area of visitor routes at one time to limit attendance is recommended. In the future, this could be a key factor for sustainability of many zoos.

COVID-19 impacts of inbound tourism on Australian economy

The pandemic COVID-19 has severely impacted upon the world economy, devastating the tourism industry globally. This paper estimates the short-run economic impacts of the inbound tourism industry on the Australian economy during the pandemic. The analysis covers effects both at the macroeconomic as well as at the industry and occupation level, from direct contribution (using tourism satellite accounts) to economy-wide effects (using the computable general equilibrium modelling technique). Findings show that the pandemic affects a range of industries and occupations that are beyond the tourism sector. The paper calls for strong support from the government on tourism as the recovery of tourism can deliver spillover benefits for other sectors and across the whole spectrum of occupations in the labour market.

Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team

In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.

COVID-19 impact on the hospitality industry: Exploratory study of financial-slack-driven risk preparedness

The hospitality industry is regarded as one of the most affected by the consequences of COVID-19 pandemic, and the undefined persistence of the pandemic duration raises anxiety about the ability to recover from this dramatic situation. In this regard, the purpose of this exploratory study is to shed light on the COVID-19 risk preparedness of hospitality businesses, as driven by the financial slack holdings and persistence. The empirical findings confirm that their financial-slack-driven risk preparedness should be judged as relatively low. A majority of the examined hospitality businesses demonstrated low or insufficient financial slack holdings and recently have consumed their financial slack resources. Thus, the abilities of hospitality businesses to sustain the liquidity tensions that emerged after the COVID-19 outbreak are questionable. Facing this evidence, we draw conclusions about the necessary design of system interventions that could prevent bankruptcy in the hospitality industry.

Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?

In this study, the asymmetric Granger causality relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty index is examined by controlling inflation, consumer confidence index, and industrial production for the period 2000M1 and 2020M1 in Italy. To the best of our knowledge, the current study is one of the few studies to investigate the relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty in an asymmetric framework. The empirical results show that using the Granger causality test in a linear framework causes bias results due to misspecification. Therefore, the study relies on asymmetric Granger causality test results which reveal that the positive shock of world pandemic uncertainty Granger causes a negative shock of tourist arrivals. It is suggested that international tourist arrivals are sensitive to external shocks such as pandemics and in such instances the government of the concerned country can insulate the tourism-service and hospitality industry against the shocks by developing strategies to promote full information between all stakeholders.

How pandemics affect tourism: International evidence

•We examine how pandemics affects tourist arrivals.•The paper is the first to use newly developed "Discussion about Pandemics Index".•We find that pandemic decreases tourist arrivals.•This effect exists only for low-income economies.

The effects of natural disasters on international tourism: A global analysis

Tourism is shaped by a wide range of factors and forces, including exogenous ones that have no direct link with the tourism sector. Natural disasters and unexpected events are prime examples of such determining factors, as they have profound effects on individuals and society, and as a result have the potential to affect tourism flows considerably. Several theoretical arguments exist why natural disasters and unexpected events could influence tourist destination choices. However, empirical research to confirm the nature and extent of impacts of disasters on tourism is lacking. To address this gap, this paper incorporates a dataset on natural and man-made disaster events into a model of international tourism flows to evaluate the effect of different types of disasters on international arrivals at the national level. Findings provide evidence that the occurrence of different types of event change tourist flows to varying degrees. Although in some cases a positive effect is estimated, in general the impacts are negative, resulting in reduced tourist arrivals following an event. Understanding the relationship between disaster events and tourism is helpful for destination managers who make critical decisions in relation to recovery, reconstruction and marketing.

The swine flu and its impacts on tourism in Brunei

This paper demonstrates how to disentangle the impacts of the swine flu on tourism in Brunei, which overlaps with the continued effects of the 2008 global financial crisis that occurred earlier using the auto regressive integrated moving average and intervention time series analysis methods. Estimating the impacts of the swine flu for the first 12 months' post-swine flu period, we have predicted the number of tourists by fitting two auto regressive integrated moving average models: one for the swine flu and another for the global financial crisis which occurred and affected the number of tourist arrivals; and one intervention time series analysis model. It is shown that the number of tourists have been reduced significantly due to both the swine flu and the global financial crisis, which is reconfirmed by testing the coefficients of the fitted intervention time series analysis model. It is found that a small country like Brunei lost nearly 30, 000 (15%) tourists and B$15 million dollars due to the swine flu during the first twelve months’ post-swine flu period.

Infectious disease risk and international tourism demand

Context

 For some countries, favourable climatic conditions for tourism are often associated with favourable conditions for infectious diseases, with the ensuing development constraints on the tourist sectors of impoverished countries where tourism's economic contribution has a high potential. This paper evaluates the economic implications of eradication of Malaria, Dengue, Yellow Fever and Ebola on the affected destination countries focusing on the tourist expenditures.

Methods

 A gravity model for international tourism flows is used to provide an estimation of the impact of each travel-related disease on international tourist arrivals. Next the potential eradication of these diseases in the affected countries is simulated and the impact on tourism expenditures is estimated.

Findings

 The results show that, in the case of Malaria, Dengue, Yellow Fever and Ebola, the eradication of these diseases in the affected countries would result in an increase of around 10 million of tourist worldwide and a rise in the tourism expenditure of 12 billion dollars.

Conclusion

 By analysing the economic benefits of the eradication of Dengue, Ebola, Malaria, and Yellow Fever for the tourist sector-a strategic economic sector for many of the countries where these TRD are present-this paper explores a new aspect of the quantification of health policies which should be taken into consideration in future international health assessment programmes. It is important to note that the analysis is only made of the direct impact of the diseases' eradication and consequently the potential multiplicative effects of a growth in the GDP, in terms of tourism attractiveness, are not evaluated. Consequently, the economic results can be considered to be skeleton ones.

Outbreak detection model based on danger theory

In outbreak detection, one of the key issues is the need to deal with the weakness of early outbreak signals because this causes the detection model to have has less capability in terms of robustness when unseen outbreak patterns vary from those in the trained model. As a result, an imbalance between high detection rate and low false alarm rate occurs. To solve this problem, this study proposes a novel outbreak detection model based on danger theory; a bio-inspired method that replicates how the human body fights pathogens. We propose a signal formalization approach based on cumulative sum and a cumulative mature antigen contact value to suit the outbreak characteristic and danger theory. Two outbreak diseases, dengue and SARS, are subjected to a danger theory algorithm; namely the dendritic cell algorithm. To evaluate the model, four measurement metrics are applied: detection rate, specificity, false alarm rate, and accuracy. From the experiment, the proposed model outperforms the other detection approaches and shows a significant improvement for both diseases outbreak detection. The findings reveal that the robustness of the proposed immune model increases when dealing with inconsistent outbreak signals. The model is able to detect new unknown outbreak patterns and can discriminate between outbreak and non-outbreak cases with a consistent high detection rate, high sensitivity, and lower false alarm rate even without a training phase.

Tourism crises and island destinations: Experiences in Penang, Malaysia

Crisis management and tourism is attracting increasing attention as an industry practice and subject of academic enquiry, not least in South East Asia which has been affected by a number of severe crises in recent years. However, organisations are not always well prepared and response strategies can be deficient. The paper discusses issues of tourism crisis management with specific reference to the popular Malaysian destination of Penang. Findings are based on qualitative research consisting of semi-structured interviews with industry leaders from assorted sectors. Tourism in Penang emerges as vulnerable to regional and global events which act as a trigger for tourism crises, demanding a response in which various strategies are employed. The destination is also seen to recover fairly quickly from experiences of crises, but a well designed and formulated tourism crisis management plan under the stewardship of the public sector is necessary to mitigate further damage in the future.