Misattributing speech and jumping to conclusions: A longitudinal study in people at high risk of psychosis

A systematic review of performance-based assessment studies on cognitive biases in schizophrenia spectrum psychoses and clinical high-risk states: A summary of 40 years of research

Cognitive models of psychosis have stimulated empirical studies on cognitive biases involved in schizophrenia spectrum psychoses and their symptoms. This systematic review aimed to summarize the studies on the role of cognitive biases as assessed in different performance-based tasks in schizophrenia spectrum psychoses and clinical high-risk states. We focused on five cognitive biases linked to psychosis, i.e., aberrant salience, attentional biases, source monitoring biases, jumping to conclusions, and bias against disconfirmatory evidence. We identified N = 324 studies published in N = 308 articles fulfilling inclusion criteria. Most studies have been cross-sectional and confirmed that the schizophrenia spectrum psychoses are related to exaggerated cognitive biases compared to healthy controls. On the contrary, less evidence suggests a higher tendency for cognitive biases in the UHR sample. The only exceptions were source monitoring and jumping to conclusions, which were confirmed to be exaggerated in both clinical groups. Hallucinations and delusions were the most frequent symptoms studied in the context of cognitive biases. Based on the findings, we presented a hypothetical model on the role of interactions between cognitive biases or additive effects of biases in shaping the risk of psychosis. Future research is warranted for further development of cognitive models for psychosis.

Reasoning biases and delusional ideation in the general population: A longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Reasoning biases have been suggested as risk factors for delusional ideation in both patients and non-clinical individuals. Still, it is unclear how these biases are longitudinally related to delusions in the general population. We hence aimed to investigate longitudinal associations between reasoning biases and delusional ideation in the general population.

METHODS

We conducted an online cohort study with 1184 adults from the German and Swiss general population. Participants completed measures on reasoning biases (jumping-to-conclusion bias [JTC], liberal acceptance bias [LA], bias against disconfirmatory evidence [BADE], possibility of being mistaken [PM]) and delusional ideation at baseline, and delusional ideation 7 to 8 months later.

RESULTS

A greater JTC bias was associated with a greater increase in delusional ideation over the following months. This association was better described by a positive quadratic relationship. Neither BADE, LA nor PM were associated with subsequent changes in delusional ideation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that jumping-to-conclusions predicts delusional ideation in the general population but that this association may follow a quadratic trajectory. While no other associations turned significant, future studies with shorter temporal distances may shed further light on the role of reasoning biases as risk factors for delusional ideation in non-clinical samples.

Relationship between jumping to conclusions and clinical outcomes in people at clinical high-risk for psychosis

BACKGROUND

Psychosis is associated with a reasoning bias, which manifests as a tendency to 'jump to conclusions'. We examined this bias in people at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR) and investigated its relationship with their clinical outcomes.

METHODS

In total, 303 CHR subjects and 57 healthy controls (HC) were included. Both groups were assessed at baseline, and after 1 and 2 years. A 'beads' task was used to assess reasoning bias. Symptoms and level of functioning were assessed using the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States scale (CAARMS) and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), respectively. During follow up, 58 (16.1%) of the CHR group developed psychosis (CHR-T), and 245 did not (CHR-NT). Logistic regressions, multilevel mixed models, and Cox regression were used to analyse the relationship between reasoning bias and transition to psychosis and level of functioning, at each time point.

RESULTS

There was no association between reasoning bias at baseline and the subsequent onset of psychosis. However, when assessed after the transition to psychosis, CHR-T participants showed a greater tendency to jump to conclusions than CHR-NT and HC participants (55, 17, 17%; χ2 = 8.13, p = 0.012). There was a significant association between jumping to conclusions (JTC) at baseline and a reduced level of functioning at 2-year follow-up in the CHR group after adjusting for transition, gender, ethnicity, age, and IQ.

CONCLUSIONS

In CHR participants, JTC at baseline was associated with adverse functioning at the follow-up. Interventions designed to improve JTC could be beneficial in the CHR population.

Jumping to conclusions correlates with negative symptoms, poor response inhibition, and impaired functioning in individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia

BACKGROUND

The jumping to conclusions (JTC) bias is the tendency to make immediate decisions based on little information. There are few studies that have investigated the relationship between JTC and frontal lobe function. We examined the association between JTC and the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS), Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB), and Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scale in individuals with schizophrenia.

METHODS

In total, 50 individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia and 50 healthy control individuals were administered the beads task. Individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia were assessed using the FAB, BPRS, and GAF.

RESULTS

There was a significant negative correlation between JTC and the negative symptoms of the BPRS (rs=-.368, p = .008). There was a significant positive correlation between JTC and the Go/No-Go task of the FAB (rs=.319, p = .026), and the GAF (rs=.433, p = .002).

CONCLUSION

JTC in individuals with schizophrenia may be categorized according to several causes, including negative symptoms and poor response inhibition.

The relationship between jumping to conclusions and social cognition in first-episode psychosis

Jumping to conclusions (JTC) and impaired social cognition (SC) affect the decoding, processing, and use of social information by people with psychosis. However, the relationship between them had not been deeply explored within psychosis in general, and in first-episode psychosis (FEP) in particular. Our aim was to study the relationship between JTC and SC in a sample with FEP. We conducted a cross-sectional study with 121 patients with FEP, with measures to assess JTC (easy, hard, and salient probability tasks) and SC (emotional recognition, attributional style, and theory of mind). We performed Student's t-test and logistic regression in order to analyse these associations.We found a statistically significant and consistent relationship of small-moderate effect size between JTC (all three tasks) and impaired emotional recognition. Also, our results suggest a relationship between JTC and internal attributions for negative events. Relationships between JTC and theory of mind were not found. These results highlight the importance of psychological treatments oriented to work on a hasty reasoning style and on improving processing of social information linked to emotional recognition and single-cause attributions.

Telepsychotherapy with Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Clinical Issues and Best Practices during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Early detection and prevention of psychosis has become an international priority. Much of this work has focused on youth presenting with attenuated symptoms of psychosis-those at Clinical High Risk for psychosis (CHR)-given their elevated probability of developing the full disorder in subsequent years. Individuals at CHR may be prone to exacerbated psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic and its subsequent physical isolation measures, due to heightened stress sensitivity and comorbid mental health problems. Telepsychotherapy holds promise for reaching this population, especially during the current COVID-19 outbreak. However, there are limited evidence-based guidelines or interventions for use of telepsychotherapy with this population. In this paper, we review common clinical issues for individuals at CHR and how they might be exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic; best practices for treatment and adaptations for telepsychotherapy for individuals at CHR; and highlight real clinical issues that we are currently experiencing in a United States-based specialized CHR clinic as we conduct telepsychotherapy via videoconferencing. We conclude with questions for those in the field to contemplate, as well as potential challenges and benefits in using telepsychotherapy with individuals at CHR and their families.

Atypical processing of uncertainty in individuals at risk for psychosis

•

Humans at psychosis clinical high risk (CHR) over-estimate environmental volatility.

•

Low-level prediction error (PE) signals evoke increased frontal activity in CHR.

•

Volatility-related PEs are associated with reduced frontal activity in CHR.

•

Frontal cortical activation to low-level PEs reflects impaired clinical functioning.

•

Atypical PE learning signal representations may promote delusion formation in CHR.

Current theories of psychosis highlight the role of abnormal learning signals, i.e., prediction errors (PEs) and uncertainty, in the formation of delusional beliefs. We employed computational analyses of behaviour and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine whether such abnormalities are evident in clinical high risk (CHR) individuals.

Non-medicated CHR individuals (n = 13) and control participants (n = 13) performed a probabilistic learning paradigm during fMRI data acquisition. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model to infer subject-specific computations from behaviour – with a focus on PEs and uncertainty (or its inverse, precision) at different levels, including environmental ‘volatility’ – and used these computational quantities for analyses of fMRI data.

Computational modelling of CHR individuals’ behaviour indicated volatility estimates converged to significantly higher levels than in controls. Model-based fMRI demonstrated increased activity in prefrontal and insular regions of CHR individuals in response to precision-weighted low-level outcome PEs, while activations of prefrontal, orbitofrontal and anterior insula cortex by higher-level PEs (that serve to update volatility estimates) were reduced. Additionally, prefrontal cortical activity in response to outcome PEs in CHR was negatively associated with clinical measures of global functioning.

Our results suggest a multi-faceted learning abnormality in CHR individuals under conditions of environmental uncertainty, comprising higher levels of volatility estimates combined with reduced cortical activation, and abnormally high activations in prefrontal and insular areas by precision-weighted outcome PEs. This atypical representation of high- and low-level learning signals might reflect a predisposition to delusion formation.

Dual-process theory, conflict processing, and delusional belief

Many reasoning biases that may contribute to delusion formation and/or maintenance are common in healthy individuals. Research indicating that reasoning in the general population proceeds via analytic processes (which depend upon working memory and support hypothetical thought) and intuitive processes (which are autonomous and independent of working memory) may therefore help uncover the source of these biases. Consistent with this possibility, recent studies imply that impaired conflict processing might reduce engagement in analytic reasoning, thereby producing reasoning biases and promoting delusions in individuals with schizophrenia. Progress toward understanding this potential pathway to delusions is currently impeded by ambiguity about whether any of these deficits or biases is necessary or sufficient for the formation and maintenance of delusions. Resolving this ambiguity requires consideration of whether particular cognitive deficits or biases in this putative pathway have causal primacy over other processes that may also participate in the causation of delusions. Accordingly, the present manuscript critically evaluates whether impaired conflict processing is the primary initiating deficit in the generation of reasoning biases that may promote the development and/or maintenance of delusions. Suggestions for future research that may elucidate mechanistic pathways by which reasoning deficits might engender and maintain delusions are subsequently offered.

A combination of self-disturbances and psychotic-like experiences. A cluster analysis study on a non-clinical sample in Poland

We aimed to perform a cluster analysis to investigate the group structure of a combination of psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) and self-disturbances in a non-clinical sample. Non-clinical adults (n = 677) were assessed with the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences (CAPE), the Davos Assessment of Cognitive Biases Scale (DACOBS) and the Inventory of Psychotic-Like Anomalous Self-Experiences (IPASE). Cluster analysis was conducted based on the positive and negative dimension of CAPE and a total score of IPASE. Four distinct groups were revealed by the cluster analysis. The High Profile group had the highest means, and the Low Profile had the lowest scores of positive and negative subscales of the CAPE and IPASE. The Positive Profile group had a significantly higher level of self-disturbances (in 'Cognition', 'Consciousnesses and 'Somatization' dimensions) from participants with the 'Negative Profile'. The High Profile group had more cognitive biases (i.e., inadequate cognitive inference about internal and external events) related to psychosis as assessed with DACOBS, had the highest means on each IPASE subscale and had a higher level of emotional distress. A combination of high level of PLEs and self-disturbances may capture the highest risk of psychosis in the general population associated with cognitive biases characteristic for psychosis.

CBT in the prevention of psychosis and other severe mental disorders in patients with an at risk mental state: A review and proposed next steps

Patients with an 'At risk mental state' (ARMS) for developing psychosis can be treated successfully with CBT to postpone and prevent the transition to a first psychotic episode. A characteristic of individuals that meet ARMS criteria is that they are still open for multiple explanations for extraordinary experiences. CBT aims to normalize extraordinary experiences with education and to prevent delusional explanations. The treatment is not only effective, but also cost-saving in averting psychosis as well as in reducing disability adjusted life years at 18- and 48-month follow-up. Profiling within the ARMS group results in a personalized treatment. The screening and early treatment for ARMS fulfills all the criteria of the World Health Organization and is ready to be routine screening and treatment in mental health care. At the same time, ARMS patients are complex patients with multi-morbid disorders. Especially childhood trauma is associated to ARMS status, together with co-morbid PTSD, depression, substance abuse and anxiety disorders. Psychotic symptoms appear to be severity markers in other non-psychotic disorders. Preventing psychosis in ARMS patients should be broadened to also address other disorders and aim to reduce chronicity of psychopathology and improve social functioning in general. Several mechanisms play a part in psychopathology in ARMS patients such as stress sensitivity as a result of adverse experiences, dopamine sensitivity that is associated with salience and aggravates several cognitive biases, dissociation mediating between trauma and hallucinations, and low self-esteem and self-stigma. New avenues to treat the complexity of ARMS patients will be proposed.

Early intervention for everyone? A review of cross-cultural issues and their treatment in ultra-high-risk (UHR) cohorts

AIM

Over the past 20 years, early management of psychosis has become both a research and policy priority. In Western countries, psychotic disorders appear more prevalent in migrant and minority ethnic groups than in native or dominant groups. Moreover, disparities exist in health conditions and access to care among immigrants and minority ethnic groups, compared with native-born and majority groups. Appropriate early detection tools are necessary for the different groups.

METHODS

This systematic review provides a synthesis of the assessment and discussion of transcultural issues in ultra-high-risk (UHR) cohorts. The Medline database was searched via PubMed for peer-reviewed articles published in English from 1995 to 2017. All 79 studies included are prospective UHR cohort studies that used the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS).

RESULTS

In UHR cohort studies that used the CAARMS, transcultural data (native language, ethnicity, place of birth, migration) are rarely collected, and inadequate ability to speak the dominant language is a common exclusion criterion. When they are included, the CAARMS scores differ between some minorities and the native-born majority group.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review demonstrates barriers to the access to participation in early intervention research for migrants and ethnic minorities. This selection bias may result in lower validity for the CAARMS among these populations and thus in inadequate intervention programmes. Along with targeted studies, minorities' access to participation in UHR cohorts should be improved through 3 tools: interpreters at recruitment and for administration of CAARMS, a guide to cultural formulation and transcultural data collection.

Intranasal oxytocin does not modulate jumping to conclusions in schizophrenia: Potential interactions with caudate volume and baseline social functioning

BACKGROUND

Patients with schizophrenia (SCZ) tend to sample less information when making a decision, jumping to conclusions (JTC) without sufficient evidence. This "JTC bias" may be a trait marker of the disease and may not improve with antipsychotic treatment. We conducted a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to test whether intranasal oxytocin could reduce JTC in stable, medicated patients with SCZ and healthy controls (HCs). We also explored whether striatal volume, clinical symptoms, and baseline social functioning (SF) was related to JTC performance.

METHODS

Forty-three male, medicated SCZ patients (Mean Age: 40.81±11.44) and sixteen HCs (Mean Age: 30.38±9.85) participated in a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over study. Participants completed the Beads Task on two separate visits (minimum 20days apart). Participants were randomized to receive either intranasal oxytocin (50IU in solution) or intranasal placebo (saline). Twenty of the SCZ patients and all sixteen HCs also provided T1 MRIs (3-T).

RESULTS

Patients with SCZ took fewer draws to decision (DTD) than HCs (t(57)=2.78, p=0.007). Oxytocin did not significantly change DTD in patients (t(42)=-1.11, p=0.27), nor in HCs (t(15)=-0.62, p=0.55). Exploratory analyses found ventral caudate volumes were negatively correlated with DTD (r(18)=-0.50, p=0.03) in patients. Moreover, oxytocin was more likely to improve JTC in patients with lower baseline SF. However, these exploratory findings did not survive correction for multiple comparisons.

CONCLUSIONS

We replicate increased JTC in SCZ. However, acute intranasal oxytocin did not modify JTC. Future studies with larger samples should explore how brain morphology and SF are related to JTC performance in patients with SCZ.

Psychosis, Delusions and the "Jumping to Conclusions" Reasoning Bias: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the magnitude and specificity of the "jumping to conclusions" (JTC) bias in psychosis and delusions. We examined the extent to which people with psychosis, and people with delusions specifically, required less information before making decisions. We examined (1) the average amount of information required to make a decision and (2) numbers who demonstrated an extreme JTC bias, as assessed by the "beads task." We compared people with psychosis to people with and without nonpsychotic mental health problems, and people with psychosis with and without delusions. We examined whether reduced data-gathering was associated with increased delusion severity. We identified 55 relevant studies, and acquired previously unpublished data from 16 authors. People with psychosis required significantly less information to make decisions than healthy individuals (k= 33,N= 1935,g= -0.53, 95% CI -0.69, -0.36) and those with nonpsychotic mental health problems (k= 13,N= 667,g= -0.58, 95% CI -0.80, -0.35). The odds of extreme responding in psychosis were between 4 and 6 times higher than the odds of extreme responding by healthy participants and participants with nonpsychotic mental health problems. The JTC bias was linked to a greater probability of delusion occurrence in psychosis (k= 14,N= 770, OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.12, 2.05). There was a trend-level inverse association between data-gathering and delusion severity (k= 18;N= 794;r= -.09, 95% CI -0.21, 0.03). Hence, nonaffective psychosis is characterized by a hasty decision-making style, which is linked to an increased probability of delusions.

Psychotic Experiences and Working Memory: A Population-Based Study Using Signal-Detection Analysis

Psychotic Experiences (PEs) during adolescence index increased risk for psychotic disorders and schizophrenia in adult life. Working memory (WM) deficits are a core feature of these disorders. Our objective was to examine the relationship between PEs and WM in a general population sample of young people in a case control study. 4744 individuals of age 17–18 from Bristol and surrounding areas (UK) were analyzed in a cross-sectional study nested within the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort study. The dependent variable was PEs, assessed using the semi-structured Psychosis-Like Symptom Interview (PLIKSi). The independent variable was performance on a computerized numerical n-back working memory task. Signal-Detection Theory indices, including standardized hits rate, false alarms rate, discriminability index (d’) and response bias (c) from 2-Back and 3-Back tasks were calculated. 3576 and 3527 individuals had complete data for 2-Back and 3-Back respectively. Suspected/definite PEs prevalence was 7.9% (N = 374). Strongest evidence of association was seen between PEs and false alarms on the 2-Back, (odds ratio (OR) = 1.17 [95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.01, 1.35]) and 3-back (OR = 1.35 [1.18, 1.54]) and with c (OR = 1.59 [1.09, 2.34]), and lower d’ (OR = 0.76 [0.65, 0.89]), on the 3-Back. Adjustment for several potential confounders, including general IQ, drug exposure and different psycho-social factors, and subsequent multiple imputation of missing data did not materially alter the results. WM is impaired in young people with PEs in the general population. False alarms, rather than poor accuracy, are more closely related to PEs. Such impairment is consistent with different neuropsychological models of psychosis focusing on signal-to-noise discrimination, probabilistic reasoning and impaired reality monitoring as a basis of psychotic symptoms.