Clinical and functional ultra-long-term outcome of patients with a clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis

N400 event-related brain potential index of semantic processing and two-year clinical outcomes in persons at high risk for psychosis: A longitudinal study

The N400 event-related brain potential (ERP) semantic priming effect reflects greater activation of contextually related versus unrelated concepts in long-term semantic memory. Deficits in this measure have been found in persons with schizophrenia and those at clinical high risk (CHR) for this disorder. In CHR patients, we previously found that these deficits predict poorer social functional outcomes after 1 year. In the present study, we tested whether these deficits predicted greater psychosis-spectrum symptom severity and functional impairment over 2 years. We measured N400 semantic priming effects at baseline in CHR patients (n = 47) who viewed prime words each followed by a related/unrelated target word at stimulus-onset asynchronies (SOAs) of 300 or 750 ms. We measured psychosis-spectrum symptoms using the Structured Interview for Prodromal Symptoms and role and social functioning with the Global Functioning: Role and Social scales, at baseline, 1 (n = 29) and 2 years (n = 25). There was a significant interaction between the N400 semantic priming effect at the 300-ms SOA and time on GF:Role scores, indicating that, contrary to expectations, smaller baseline N400 semantic priming effects were associated with more improvement in role functioning from baseline to Year 1, but baseline N400 priming effects did not predict role functioning at Year 2. N400 priming effects were not significantly associated with different trajectories in psychosis-spectrum symptoms or social functioning. Thus, CHR patients' N400 semantic priming effects did not predict clinical outcomes over 2 years, suggesting that this ERP measure may have greater value as a state or short-term prognostic neurophysiological biomarker.

Risk stratification for treating people at ultra-high risk for psychosis: A cost-effectiveness analysis

People who are at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis receive clinical care with the aim to prevent first-episode psychosis (FEP), regardless of the risk of conversion to psychosis. An economic model from the Canadian health system perspective was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treating all with UHR compared to risk stratification over a 15-year time horizon, based on conversion probability, expected quality-of-life and costs. The analysis used a decision tree followed by a Markov model. Health states included: Not UHR, UHR with <20 % risk of conversion to FEP (based on the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study risk calculator), UHR with ≥20 % risk, FEP, Remission, Post-FEP, and Death. The analysis found that: risk stratification (i.e., only treating those with ≥20 % risk) had lower costs ($1398) and quality-adjusted life-years (0.055 QALYs) per person compared to treating all. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for 'treat all' was $25,448/QALY, and suggests treating all may be cost-effective. The model was sensitive to changes to the probability of conversion.

Increased Striatal Presynaptic Dopamine in a Nonhuman Primate Model of Maternal Immune Activation: A Longitudinal Neurodevelopmental Positron Emission Tomography Study With Implications for Schizophrenia

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies suggest that maternal immune activation (MIA) is a significant risk factor for future neurodevelopmental disorders, including schizophrenia (SZ), in offspring. Consistent with findings in SZ research and work in rodent systems, preliminary cross-sectional findings in nonhuman primates suggest that MIA is associated with dopaminergic hyperfunction in young adult offspring.

METHODS

In this unique prospective longitudinal study, we used [18F]fluoro-l-m-tyrosine positron emission tomography to examine the developmental time course of striatal presynaptic dopamine synthesis in male rhesus monkeys born to dams (n = 13) injected with a modified form of the inflammatory viral mimic, polyinosinic:polycytidylic acid [poly(I:C)], in the late first trimester. Striatal (caudate, putamen, and nucleus accumbens) dopamine from these animals was compared with that of control offspring born to dams that received saline (n = 10) or no injection (n = 4). Dopamine was measured at 15, 26, 38, and 48 months of age. Prior work with this cohort found decreased prefrontal gray matter volume in MIA offspring versus controls between 6 and 45 months of age. Based on theories of the etiology and development of SZ-related pathology, we hypothesized that there would be a delayed (relative to the gray matter decrease) increase in striatal fluoro-l-m-tyrosine signal in the MIA group versus controls.

RESULTS

[18F]fluoro-l-m-tyrosine signal showed developmental increases in both groups in the caudate and putamen. Group comparisons revealed significantly greater caudate dopaminergic signal in the MIA group at 26 months.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings are highly relevant to the known pathophysiology of SZ and highlight the translational relevance of the MIA model in understanding mechanisms by which MIA during pregnancy increases risk for later illness in offspring.

The clinical and functional outcomes of a large naturalistic cohort of young people accessing national early psychosis services

AIMS

Services for individuals with a first episode of psychosis or at ultra-high risk of psychosis have become a treatment model of choice in mental health care. The longitudinal changes in clinical and functional outcomes as a result of real-world treatment remain under-reported.

METHODS

We analysed data from first episode of psychosis and ultra-high risk services delivered across Australian primary youth mental health care services known as headspace between 19 June 2017 and 30 September 2019. Outcome measures were completed and entered into a minimum dataset every 90 days a participant was receiving treatment and included psychiatric symptomatology (Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale and psychological distress, K10) and psychosocial functioning (Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale and My Life Tracker). Linear mixed-effects models were used to evaluate changes in outcome over time.

RESULTS

Outcome data from a total of 1252 young people were evaluated (643 first episode of psychosis, 609 ultra-high risk). Of those who entered ultra-high risk services, 11.8% transitioned to first episode of psychosis services. Overall, substantial improvement in clinical (Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, K10) and functional (Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale, My Life Tracker) outcomes were seen across groups and outcomes. Ultra-high risk patients showed a greater reduction in distress symptoms, while first episode of psychosis patients experienced a greater reduction in positive psychosis symptoms. Although clinical outcomes showed a plateau effect after approximately 3 months of care, improvement in functional outcomes (Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale, My Life Tracker) continued later in treatment.

CONCLUSION

These findings support the use of real-time, real-world and low-cost administrative data to rigorously evaluate symptomatic and functional outcomes in early psychosis treatment settings. Findings that functional outcomes improve past the remittance of clinical outcomes also support the functional recovery focus of early psychosis services and remaining high levels of distress suggest the need for ultra-high risk services to extend beyond 6 months of care.

Early intervention service systems for youth mental health: integrating pluripotentiality, clinical staging, and transdiagnostic lessons from early psychosis

Challenges associated with operationalising services for the at-risk mental state for psychosis solely in that same diagnostic silo are increasingly well recognised-namely, the differential risk for psychosis being a function of sampling enrichment strategies, declining transition rates to psychosis, questions regarding the validity of transition as an outcome, and the frequent development of non-psychotic disorders. However, recent epidemiological and clinical research suggests that not all threshold-level psychoses are likely to occur homotypically; early-stage non-psychotic syndromes might exhibit heterotypic shifts to a first episode of psychosis, without an identifiable at-risk mental state. These findings, along with the relevance of outcomes beyond traditional diagnoses or syndromes, have substantive implications for developing next-generation early intervention infrastructures. Along with the idea of general at-risk clinics for early-stage pluripotential syndromes, we examine how this reality might affect service design, such as the need for close linkage with centres of expertise for threshold-level disorders when transitions to later stages occur, the balance between generic and specific interventions amid the need for person-centred care, and the challenges this reorientation might pose for broader mental health systems.

N400 event-related brain potential and functional outcome in persons at clinical high risk for psychosis: A longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

The N400 event-related brain potential (ERP) semantic priming effect is thought to reflect activation by meaningful stimuli of related concepts in semantic memory and has been found to be deficient in schizophrenia. We tested the hypothesis that, among individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis, N400 semantic priming deficits predict worse symptomatic and functional outcomes after one year.

METHODS

We measured N400 semantic priming at baseline in CHR patients (n = 47) and healthy control participants (n = 25) who viewed prime words each followed by a related or unrelated target word, at stimulus-onset asynchronies (SOAs) of 300 or 750 ms. We measured patients' psychosis-like symptoms with the Scale of Prodromal Symptoms (SOPS) Positive subscale, and academic/occupational and social functioning with the Global Functioning (GF):Role and Social scales, respectively, at baseline and one-year follow-up (n = 29).

RESULTS

CHR patients exhibited less N400 semantic priming than controls across SOAs; planned contrasts indicated this difference was significant at the 750-ms but not the 300-ms SOA. In patients, reduced N400 semantic priming at the 750-ms SOA was associated with lower GF:Social scores at follow-up, and greater GF:Social decrements from baseline to follow-up. Patients' N400 semantic priming was not associated with SOPS Positive or GF:Role scores at follow-up, or change in these from baseline to follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

In CHR patients, reduced N400 semantic priming at baseline predicted worse social functioning after one year, and greater decline in social functioning over this period. Thus, the N400 may be a useful prognostic biomarker of real-world functional outcome in CHR patients.

Clinical outcomes in individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis who do not transition to psychosis: a meta-analysis

AIMS

The clinical outcomes of individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis (CHR-P) who do not transition to psychosis are heterogeneous and inconsistently reported. We aimed to comprehensively evaluate longitudinally a wide range of outcomes in CHR-P individuals not developing psychosis.

METHODS

"Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses" and "Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology"-compliant meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD42021229212) searching original CHR-P longitudinal studies in PubMed and Web of Science databases up to 01/11/2021. As primary analysis, we evaluated the following outcomes within CHR-P non-transitioning individuals: (a) change in the severity of attenuated psychotic symptoms (Hedge's g); (b) change in the severity of negative psychotic symptoms (Hedge's g); (c) change in the severity of depressive symptoms (Hedge's g); (d) change in the level of functioning (Hedge's g); (e) frequency of remission (at follow-up). As a secondary analysis, we compared these outcomes in those CHR-P individuals who did not transition vs. those who did transition to psychosis at follow-up. We conducted random-effects model meta-analyses, sensitivity analyses, heterogeneity analyses, meta-regressions and publication bias assessment. The risk of bias was assessed using a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS).

RESULTS

Twenty-eight studies were included (2756 CHR-P individuals, mean age = 20.4, 45.5% females). The mean duration of follow-up of the included studies was of 30.7 months. Primary analysis: attenuated psychotic symptoms [Hedges' g = 1.410, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.002-1.818]; negative psychotic symptoms (Hedges' g = 0.683, 95% CI 0.371-0.995); depressive symptoms (Hedges' g = 0.844, 95% CI 0.371-1.317); and functioning (Hedges' g = 0.776, 95% CI 0.463-1.089) improved in CHR-P non-transitioning individuals; 48.7% remitted at follow-up (95% CI 39.3-58.2%). Secondary analysis: attenuated psychotic symptoms (Hedges' g = 0.706, 95% CI 0.091-1.322) and functioning (Hedges' g = 0.623, 95% CI 0.375-0.871) improved in CHR-P individuals not-transitioning compared to those transitioning to psychosis, but there were no differences in negative or depressive symptoms or frequency of remission (p > 0.05). Older age was associated with higher improvements of attenuated psychotic symptoms (β = 0.225, p = 0.012); publication years were associated with a higher improvement of functioning (β = -0.124, p = 0.0026); a lower proportion of Brief Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms was associated with higher frequencies of remission (β = -0.054, p = 0.0085). There was no metaregression impact for study continent, the psychometric instrument used, the quality of the study or proportion of females. The NOS scores were 4.4 ± 0.9, ranging from 3 to 6, revealing the moderate quality of the included studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical outcomes improve in CHR-P individuals not transitioning to psychosis but only less than half remit over time. Sustained clinical attention should be provided in the longer term to monitor these outcomes.

Equity in Mental Health Services for Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Considering Marginalized Identities and Stressors

Prevention and early intervention programs have been initiated worldwide to serve youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P), who are adolescents and young adults experiencing subclinical psychosis and functional impairment. The primary goals of these efforts are to prevent or mitigate the onset of clinical psychosis, while also treating comorbid issues. It is important to consider issues of diversity, equity, and inclusion in CHR-P work, especially as these programs continue to proliferate around the world. Further, there is a long history in psychiatry of misdiagnosing and mistreating psychosis in individuals from racial and ethnic minority groups. Although there have been significant developments in early intervention psychosis work, there is evidence that marginalized groups are underserved by current CHR-P screening and intervention efforts. These issues are compounded by the contexts of continued social marginalization and significant mental health disparities in general child/adolescent services. Within this narrative review and call to action, we use an intersectional and minority stress lens to review and discuss current issues related to equity in CHR-P services, offer evidence-based recommendations, and propose next steps. In particular, our intersectional and minority stress lenses incorporate perspectives for a range of marginalized and underserved identities related to race, ethnicity, and culture; faith; immigration status; geography/residence; gender identity; sexual orientation; socioeconomic status/class; and ability status.

Basic self-disturbance trajectories in clinical high risk for psychosis: a one-year follow-up study

Basic self-disturbance (BSD) has been proposed as a driver of symptom development in schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSDs). In a one-year follow-up of 32 patients (15-30 years) at putative risk for psychosis, we investigated trajectories of BSD levels from baseline to follow-up, and associations between clinical characteristics at baseline and follow-up, including follow-up levels of BSD (assessed with the EASE). Clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis status and symptom severity were assessed with the SIPS/SOPS scales and also according to the cognitive basic symptoms high-risk criteria (COGDIS). DSM-IV diagnoses, functioning and other clinical characteristics were assessed with standard clinical instruments. Higher severity of negative symptoms and meeting COGDIS criteria at baseline were associated with higher BSD levels at follow-up. All measured at follow-up, higher BSD levels correlated with higher severity of positive, negative, disorganization and general symptoms, and with a lower level of global functioning. We found higher BSD levels at follow-up in subjects with schizotypal personality disorder (SPD) at baseline (n = 5) and in SSDs at follow-up (n = 12, including nine with SPD). Mean BSD levels decreased significantly from baseline to follow-up, but individual trajectories varied considerably. Increased BSD levels were associated with higher baseline BSD levels, non-remission of positive symptoms and functional decline. Overall, the current study indicates that subgroups in the CHR population with a higher risk of non-remission or deterioration may be identified by supplementing CHR criteria with assessment of BSD and negative symptoms.

The association of plasma inflammatory markers with omega-3 fatty acids and their mediating role in psychotic symptoms and functioning: An analysis of the NEURAPRO clinical trial

There is increasing evidence that dysregulation of polyunsaturated fatty acids (FAs) mediated membrane function plays a role in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. Even though preclinical findings have supported the anti-inflammatory properties of omega-3 FAs on brain health, their biological roles as anti-inflammatory agents and their therapeutic role on clinical symptoms of psychosis risk are not well understood. In the current study, we investigated the relationship of erythrocyte omega-3 FAs with plasma immune markers in a clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) sample. In addition, a mediation analysis was performed to examine whether previously reported associations between omega-3 FAs and clinical outcomes were mediated via plasma immune markers. Clinical outcomes for CHR participants in the NEURAPRO clinical trial were measured using the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS), Schedule for the Scale of Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS) and Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale (SOFAS) scales. The erythrocyte omega-3 index [eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) + docosahexaenoic acid (DHA)] and plasma concentrations of inflammatory markers were quantified at baseline (n = 268) and 6 month follow-up (n = 146) by gas chromatography and multiplex immunoassay, respectively. In linear regression models, the baseline plasma concentrations of Interleukin (IL)-15, Intercellular adhesion molecule (ICAM)-1 and Vascular cell adhesion molecule (VCAM)-1 were negatively associated with baseline omega-3 index. In addition, 6-month change in IL-12p40 and TNF-α showed a negative association with change in omega-3 index. In longitudinal analyses, the baseline and 6 month change in omega-3 index was negatively associated with VCAM-1 and TNF-α respectively at follow-up. Mediation analyses provided little evidence for mediating effects of plasma immune markers on the relationship between omega-3 FAs and clinical outcomes (psychotic symptoms and functioning) in CHR participants. Our results indicate a predominantly anti-inflammatory relationship of omega-3 FAs on plasma inflammatory status in CHR individuals, but this did not appear to convey clinical benefits at 6 month and 12 month follow-up. Both immune and non-immune biological effects of omega-3 FAs would be resourceful in understanding the clinical benefits of omega-3 FAs in CHR papulation.

Establishing a clinical high-risk program in Tunisia, North Africa: A pilot study in early detection and identification

BACKGROUND

Early identification and prevention research has provided huge advances in our understanding of early screening and identification of young people at clinical high-risk (CHR). Most of these procedures were developed in high-income countries, yet middle-income countries in North Africa such as Tunisia can benefit from these empirically-based assessment approaches.

METHODS

Using established procedures, nine Tunisian psychiatric raters were trained on structured assessments: the CAARMS, BPRS, and SCID to high standards of interrater reliability. These raters developed a clinical high-risk program (CHiRP) in Tunisia and recruited 10 patients who were exhibiting possible signs of CHR. These patients were evaluated to determine if they met criteria for a CHR group, such as Attenuated Psychosis.

RESULTS

Trained raters met the following interrater reliability criteria for the CAARMS and BPRS (ICC = .80 or greater) and the SCID (Kappa = .75 or greater). Of 10 pilot patients, six were classified as CHR and belonging to the Attenuated Psychosis Group. One of the six patients converted to psychosis 3 months after study entry for a conversion rate of 17% which is comparable with currently published rates globally.

DISCUSSION

The first CHR program has been established in Tunisia, a middle-income country using methods developed in high income countries. Efforts aimed at assembling a group of prevention-oriented psychiatrists, obtaining administrative support, and training raters to high levels of interrater reliability were successful. The feasibility was demonstrated for screening, assessing, treating, and following-up of 10 CHR patients suggesting that conversion rates are comparable to those of Western and European countries.

Glutathione as a Molecular Marker of Functional Impairment in Patients with At-Risk Mental State: 7-Tesla 1H-MRS Study

A substantial number of individuals with clinical high-risk (CHR) mental state do not transition to psychosis. However, regardless of future diagnostic trajectories, many of these individuals develop poor social and occupational functional outcomes. The levels of glutathione, a crucial cortical antioxidant, may track variations in functional outcomes in early psychosis and prodromal states. Thirteen clinical high-risk and 30 healthy control volunteers were recruited for a 7-Tesla magnetic resonance spectroscopy scan with a voxel positioned within the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Clinical assessment scores were collected to determine if any association was observable with glutathione levels. The Bayesian Spearman's test revealed a positive association between the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale (SOFAS) and the glutathione concentration in the clinical high-risk group but not in the healthy control group. After accounting for variations in the SOFAS scores, the CHR group had higher GSH levels than the healthy subjects. This study is the first to use 7-Tesla magnetic resonance spectroscopy to test whether ACC glutathione levels relate to social and occupational functioning in a clinically high-risk group and offers preliminary support for glutathione levels as a clinically actionable marker of prognosis in emerging adults presenting with risk features for various severe mental illnesses.

Interactions between hippocampal activity and striatal dopamine in people at clinical high risk for psychosis: relationship to adverse outcomes

Preclinical models propose that increased hippocampal activity drives subcortical dopaminergic dysfunction and leads to psychosis-like symptoms and behaviors. Here, we used multimodal neuroimaging to examine the relationship between hippocampal regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) and striatal dopamine synthesis capacity in people at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and investigated its association with subsequent clinical and functional outcomes. Ninety-five participants (67 CHR and 28 healthy controls) underwent arterial spin labeling MRI and ¹⁸F-DOPA PET imaging at baseline. CHR participants were followed up for a median of 15 months to determine functional outcomes with the global assessment of function (GAF) scale and clinical outcomes using the comprehensive assessment of at-risk mental states (CAARMS). CHR participants with poor functional outcomes (follow-up GAF < 65, n = 25) showed higher rCBF in the right hippocampus compared to CHRs with good functional outcomes (GAF ≥ 65, n = 25) (p_fwe = 0.026). The relationship between rCBF in this right hippocampal region and striatal dopamine synthesis capacity was also significantly different between groups (p_fwe = 0.035); the association was negative in CHR with poor outcomes (p_fwe = 0.012), but non-significant in CHR with good outcomes. Furthermore, the correlation between right hippocampal rCBF and striatal dopamine function predicted a longitudinal increase in the severity of positive psychotic symptoms within the total CHR group (p = 0.041). There were no differences in rCBF, dopamine, or their associations in the total CHR group relative to controls. These findings indicate that altered interactions between the hippocampus and the subcortical dopamine system are implicated in the pathophysiology of adverse outcomes in the CHR state.

Basic self-disturbance in subjects at clinical high risk for psychosis: Relationship with clinical and functional outcomes at one year follow-up

Basic self-disturbance (BSD) is assumed to drive symptom development in schizophrenia spectrum disorders and in clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis. We investigated the relationship between BSD at baseline, assessed with the Examination of Anomalous Self-Experience (EASE), and symptoms and functional outcome after one year in 32 patients, including 26 CHR and six with non-progressive attenuated psychotic symptoms. Correlations between baseline BSD levels and positive, negative and disorganization symptoms, and global functioning level at follow-up were significant. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that higher levels of baseline BSD predicted more severe positive symptoms and lower global functioning at follow-up, after adjusting for baseline positive symptoms and functioning. Subjects who were not in symptomatic and functional remission after one year had higher levels of BSD and negative symptoms, and lower functioning level, at baseline. Baseline BSD in participants with schizophrenia spectrum diagnoses at follow-up (9 of 12 were schizotypal personality disorder) were at the levels seen in schizotypal disorders in previous studies, but not significantly different from the other participants. Early identification and assessment of BSD may constitute a useful prognostic tool and a signal for therapeutic targets in CHR conditions. Further CHR studies investigating these relationships with larger samples are recommended.

Commentary about social avoidance and its significance in adolescents and young adults

Social avoidance in young patients is a clinically worrisome phenomenon that characterizes impending schizophrenia, but that also constitutes a core phenomenon in avoidant personality disorder (AvPD), schizoid personality disorder (ScPD), and in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Especially in the absence of any other clinically relevant phenomena, understanding the origins of social avoidance may be one the most challenging tasks in assessing whether adolescents and young adults are at risk for developing schizophrenia. Descriptive and psychometric assessments only allow to comment on the absence or the presence of this phenomenon, but do not capture the origins and the meaning of social avoidance. Based on a narrative review, we highlight the importance of a phenomenological approach to unveil the Gestalt of social avoidance in these mental disorders, including and appraisal of the underlying mental structures and attachment styles. The phenomenological approach allows to distinguish the Gestalt of social avoidance between AvPD, ScPD, ASD, and beginning schizophrenia, to ensure correct diagnostic labelling and optimal treatment, and to avoid unwarranted stigmatization.

Multimodal Machine Learning Workflows for Prediction of Psychosis in Patients With Clinical High-Risk Syndromes and Recent-Onset Depression

IMPORTANCE

Diverse models have been developed to predict psychosis in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states. Whether prediction can be improved by efficiently combining clinical and biological models and by broadening the risk spectrum to young patients with depressive syndromes remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether psychosis transition can be predicted in patients with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) using multimodal machine learning that optimally integrates clinical and neurocognitive data, structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI), and polygenic risk scores (PRS) for schizophrenia; to assess models' geographic generalizability; to test and integrate clinicians' predictions; and to maximize clinical utility by building a sequential prognostic system.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This multisite, longitudinal prognostic study performed in 7 academic early recognition services in 5 European countries followed up patients with CHR syndromes or ROD and healthy volunteers. The referred sample of 167 patients with CHR syndromes and 167 with ROD was recruited from February 1, 2014, to May 31, 2017, of whom 26 (23 with CHR syndromes and 3 with ROD) developed psychosis. Patients with 18-month follow-up (n = 246) were used for model training and leave-one-site-out cross-validation. The remaining 88 patients with nontransition served as the validation of model specificity. Three hundred thirty-four healthy volunteers provided a normative sample for prognostic signature evaluation. Three independent Swiss projects contributed a further 45 cases with psychosis transition and 600 with nontransition for the external validation of clinical-neurocognitive, sMRI-based, and combined models. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Accuracy and generalizability of prognostic systems.

RESULTS

A total of 668 individuals (334 patients and 334 controls) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 25.1 [5.8] years; 354 [53.0%] female and 314 [47.0%] male). Clinicians attained a balanced accuracy of 73.2% by effectively ruling out (specificity, 84.9%) but ineffectively ruling in (sensitivity, 61.5%) psychosis transition. In contrast, algorithms showed high sensitivity (76.0%-88.0%) but low specificity (53.5%-66.8%). A cybernetic risk calculator combining all algorithmic and human components predicted psychosis with a balanced accuracy of 85.5% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 86.4%). In comparison, an optimal prognostic workflow produced a balanced accuracy of 85.9% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 87.3%) at a much lower diagnostic burden by sequentially integrating clinical-neurocognitive, expert-based, PRS-based, and sMRI-based risk estimates as needed for the given patient. Findings were supported by good external validation results.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that psychosis transition can be predicted in a broader risk spectrum by sequentially integrating algorithms' and clinicians' risk estimates. For clinical translation, the proposed workflow should undergo large-scale international validation.

Neuroimaging Markers of Resiliency in Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: A Qualitative Review

Psychotic disorders are highly debilitating and constitute a major public health burden. Identifying markers of psychosis risk and resilience is a necessary step toward understanding etiology and informing prevention and treatment efforts in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. In this context, it is important to consider that neural risk markers have been particularly useful in identifying mechanistic determinants along with predicting clinical outcomes. Notably, despite a growing body of supportive literature and the promise of recent findings identifying potential neural markers, the current work on CHR resilience markers has received little attention. The present review provides a brief overview of brain-based risk markers with a focus on predicting symptom course. Next, the review turns to protective markers, examining research from nonpsychiatric and schizophrenia fields to build an understanding of framing, priorities, and potential, applying these ideas to contextualizing a small but informative body of resiliency-relevant CHR research. Four domains (neurocognition, emotion regulation, allostatic load, and sensory and sensorimotor function) were identified and are discussed in terms of behavioral and neural markers. Taken together, the literature suggests significant predictive value for brain-based markers for individuals at CHR for psychosis, and the limited but compelling resiliency work highlights the critical importance of expanding this promising area of inquiry.

Prediction and Prevention in the Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis Paradigm: A Review of the Current Status and Recommendations for Future Directions of Inquiry

Prediction and prevention of negative clinical and functional outcomes represent the two primary objectives of research conducted within the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) paradigm. Several multivariable "risk calculator" models have been developed to predict the likelihood of developing psychosis, although these models have not been translated to clinical use. Overall, less progress has been made in developing effective interventions. In this paper, we review the existing literature on both prediction and prevention in the CHR-P paradigm and, primarily, outline ways in which expanding and combining these paths of inquiry could lead to a greater improvement in individual outcomes for those most at risk.

Real-world long-term outcomes in individuals at clinical risk for psychosis: The case for extending duration of care

BACKGROUND

Most services for individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) provide short-term clinical care. This study determines the real-world and long-term clinical outcomes beyond transition to psychosis in a large cohort of CHR-P individuals.

METHOD

Retrospective RECORD-compliant real-world Electronic Health Records (EHR) cohort study in secondary mental health care (the South London and the Maudsley -SLaM- NHS Foundation Trust). All CHR-P patients accessing the CHR-P service at SLaM in the period 2001-2018 were included. Main outcomes were long-term cumulative risk of first: (i) developing an ICD-10 psychotic disorder (primary outcome), receiving a treatment with (iia) antipsychotic medication, (iib) benzodiazepines, (iic) other psychotropic medications, (iid) psychotherapy, receiving an (iiia) informal or (iiib) compulsory admission into a mental health hospital, and the time to these events; (iiic) number of days spent in hospital and (iv) cumulative risk of death for any reason and age/gender Standardised Mortality Ratio (SMR). Data were extracted from the EHR and analysed with Kaplan Meier failure functions, Cox and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions.

FINDINGS

600 CHR-P patients (80.43% Attenuated Psychotic Symptoms, APS; 18.06%, Brief and Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms, BLIPS, 1.51% Genetic Risk and Deterioration Syndrome) were included (mean age 22.63 years, range 13-36; 55.33% males; 46.44% white, mean duration of untreated attenuated psychotic symptoms 676.32 days, 1105.40 SD). The cumulative risk to first psychosis was 0.365 (95%CI 0.302-0.437) at 11 years; first antipsychotic 0.777 (95%CI 0.702-0.844) at 9 years; first benzodiazepine 0.259 (95%CI 0.183-0.359) at 12 years; first other types of medications 0.630 (95%CI 0.538-0.772) at 9 years; first psychotherapy 0.814 (95%CI 0.764-0.859) at 9 years; first informal admission 0.378 (95%CI 0.249-0.546) at 12 years; first compulsory admission 0.251 (95%CI 0.175-0.352) at 12 years; those admitted spent on average 94.84 (SD=169.94) days in hospital; the cumulative risk of death for any reason was 0.036 (95%CI 0.012-0.103) at 9 years, with an SMR of 3.9 (95%CI 1.20-6.6). Compared to APS, BLIPS had a higher risk of developing psychosis, being admitted compulsorily into hospital, receiving antipsychotics and benzodiazepines and lower probability of receiving psychotherapy. Other prognostic factors of long-term outcomes included age, symptoms severity, duration of untreated attenuated psychotic symptoms, ethnicity and employment status.

INTERPRETATION

Duration of care provided by CHR-P services should be expanded to address long-term real-world outcomes.

FUNDING

This study was supported by the King's College London Confidence in Concept award from the Medical Research Council (MRC) (MC_PC_16048) to PF-P. GSP is supported by the Alicia Koplowitz Foundation. HB is supported by a National Institute for Health Research Maudsley Biomedical Research Centre studentship.

Telepsychotherapy with Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Clinical Issues and Best Practices during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Early detection and prevention of psychosis has become an international priority. Much of this work has focused on youth presenting with attenuated symptoms of psychosis-those at Clinical High Risk for psychosis (CHR)-given their elevated probability of developing the full disorder in subsequent years. Individuals at CHR may be prone to exacerbated psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic and its subsequent physical isolation measures, due to heightened stress sensitivity and comorbid mental health problems. Telepsychotherapy holds promise for reaching this population, especially during the current COVID-19 outbreak. However, there are limited evidence-based guidelines or interventions for use of telepsychotherapy with this population. In this paper, we review common clinical issues for individuals at CHR and how they might be exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic; best practices for treatment and adaptations for telepsychotherapy for individuals at CHR; and highlight real clinical issues that we are currently experiencing in a United States-based specialized CHR clinic as we conduct telepsychotherapy via videoconferencing. We conclude with questions for those in the field to contemplate, as well as potential challenges and benefits in using telepsychotherapy with individuals at CHR and their families.

Predictors of study drop-out and service disengagement in patients at clinical high risk for psychosis

PURPOSE

Study drop-out during follow-up and service disengagement frequently occur in patients at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P). However, little is known about their predictors. Therefore, we aimed to analyze the rate and reasons for drop-out and service disengagement in CHR-P patients and investigate their sociodemographic and clinical predictors.

METHODS

Data from 200 patients of the prospective Früherkennung von Psychosen (FePsy) study were analyzed with competing risks survival models, considering drop-out and transition to psychosis as competing events. To investigate whether symptoms changed immediately before drop-out, t tests were applied.

RESULTS

Thirty-six percent of patients dropped out within 5 years. Almost all drop-outs also disengaged from our service. Hence, study drop-out was used as a proxy for service disengagement. Patients with more severe baseline disorganized symptoms and a late inclusion into the study were significantly more likely to disengage. Immediately before disengagement, there was significant improvement in negative symptoms only.

CONCLUSION

A considerable proportion of CHR-P patients disengaged from our clinical study and service. Patients who were included during a later study period with more assessments disengaged more often, which might have been due to more frequent invitations to follow-up assessments and thereby increasing participation burden. Hence, our study provides a cautionary note on high-frequency follow-up assessments. Larger-scale studies evaluating predictors on multiple domains would help to further elucidate drop-out and disengagement.