Political shifts and changing forests: Effects of armed conflict on forest conservation in Rwanda

Managing the environmental impacts of war: What can be learned from conflict-vulnerable communities?

Wars have serious negative effects on the total environment. This study reviews 193 case studies worldwide in order to better understand these impacts and their potential management before, during and after war. The synthesis of the evidence shows that military actions damage landscape resources. Aerial bombings have great negative impacts by damaging environmental conservation efforts, destroying trees, disturbing soilscapes and undermining soil health. In addition, war exterminates wildlife and their ecological niches and contributes to atmospheric and water pollution. Overall, military leaders and personnel have shown little concern about these impacts. Limited postwar restoration activities are also undertaken to reduce war-driven environmental impacts. The study highlights some good practices on how to manage the total environment during the warfare. Therefore, communities must share best lessons to remain in a sustainable peace, restore the war-damaged environment, and enhance sustainable economic development.

Future-proofing ecosystem restoration through enhancing adaptive capacity

Social-ecological ecosystem restoration involves interacting challenges, including climate change, resource overexploitation and political instability. To prepare for these and other emerging threats, we synthesized key restoration and social-ecological systems literature and derived three guiding themes that can help to enhance the adaptive capacity of restoration sites: (i) work with the existing system, (ii) create self-sustaining, adaptive systems, and (iii) foster diversity and participation. We propose a two-step approach and provide an example from Rwanda detailing the application of these principles. While site-specific activities have to be designed and implemented by local practitioners, our synthesis can guide forward-thinking restoration practice.

The impact of the armed conflict in Afghanistan on vegetation dynamics

Armed conflicts disturb the environment and impair land productivity. Afghanistan has been submerged in conflict for >20 years, affecting the environment dramatically. In this study, we used the Normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) to investigate vegetation's spatial and temporal changes and the potential underpinned mechanisms. We found a 16.44 % increase in NDVI in Afghanistan from 2000 to 2021. The average NDVI growth rate was 11.33 % (within 5 km distance from the armed conflict), higher in the conflict group than in the non-conflict group. People migration may have reduced the human impacts on the environment. The relative contribution of armed conflict to vegetation growth was 3.17 %. Our results showed that the vegetation in Afghanistan increased, confirming the idea that depopulation increase greenness. Despite the reduced variance explained by the war (R² values around 0.3), our study provides empirical evidence on the linkages between the war and vegetation change in Afghanistan.

Species richness, relative abundance and occupancy of ground-dwelling mammals denote the ineffectiveness of chimpanzee as flagship species

In conservation biology, flagship species are defined as species that can raise support for biodiversity conservation in a given place or social context. In the newly established Gishwati–Mukura National Park in Rwanda, the Eastern chimpanzee was considered such an ambassador. To test whether the flagship species concept was effective in the park, we studied species richness, relative abundance, and species distribution (occupancy) of medium- to large-sized, ground-dwelling mammals using camera trapping technology. The impact of three environmental and three anthropogenic variables on species distribution was investigated and the ecological diversity of the fauna in the national park assessed. Over a period of 9 months, two 4 × 4 camera trapping grids were deployed in Gishwati and Mukura Forest. Sampling effort in each forest equated to 32 and 29 camera trapping locations, yielding 258 and 242 independent photographic events of eight and six species, respectively. In both forests, the Emin's giant poached rat was the most frequently encountered species, while all other species showed high relative abundance only in Gishwati Forest. The relative abundance of the endangered Eastern chimpanzee in Gishwati Forest was 0.54, the estimated occupancy was 0.31. Single-species, single-season occupancy models revealed that forest cover, altitude and distance to forest edge influenced the detectability of L'Hoest's monkey and squirrel species, while no effect was found on their occupancy. Notably, no larger herbivore or carnivore species were observed in the park, while the flagship species, i.e., the Eastern chimpanzee, was relatively abundant. Moreover, in both forests, all detected carnivores were small- to medium-sized, suggesting a meso-predator release phenomenon, i.e., populations of medium-sized predators increased after the removal of larger, top carnivores, due to relaxed competition. It appears that the prioritization of the flagship species resulted in the neglect of other mammalian species, leading eventually into the demise of entire functional guilds. Based on these results, the Gishwati–Mukura NP was categorized as a ‘depleted forest’. We, therefore, strongly object chimpanzees as a suitable flagship species—at least in the Gishwati–Mukura NP—and recommend collating more knowledge on the release of meso-predators and the loss of forest ungulates to improve their future conservation in Afro-montane forest habitats.

Understanding systemic land use dynamics in conflict-affected territories: The cases of Cesar and Caquetá, Colombia

In the Colombian context, disputes over natural resources, mainly over land, and poor governance are intertwined with armed conflict. Although efforts to address this situation, including the 2016 peace agreement signed between Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC, by Spanish acronym) are underway, these disputes continue, affecting land use dynamics. Understanding the complexity and trends in land use conflicts, as well as the specific regional characteristics underlying differing land use changes across regions, is critical. This article aims to systematically understand land use dynamics in two contrasting and conflict-affected territories in Colombia, Caquetá and Cesar, thus identifying entry points to address land-use conflicts at the regional level. To address the complexity of each regional case, we apply a methodology based on system thinking to capture the interconnections between socio-economic and environmental system components and their land use dynamics. Results depicted through causal loop diagrams not just show the cascade of environmental, social, and economic failures resulting from land use changes in these two conflict-affected territories but also suggest that land tenure systems innovations and the promotion of sustainable land use interventions at the regional level can reverse the consequences of the land use changes. Thus, future actions addressing land use conflicts must be context-dependent, tackling the root and structural causes.

Integrating Pixels, People, and Political Economy to Understand the Role of Armed Conflict and Geopolitics in Driving Deforestation: The Case of Myanmar

Armed conflict and geopolitics are a driving force of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC), but with considerable variation in deforestation trends between broader and finer scales of analysis. Remotely-sensed annual deforestation rates from 1989 to 2018 are presented at the national and (sub-) regional scales for Kachin State in the north of Myanmar and in Kayin State and Tanintharyi Region in the southeast. We pair our multiscaled remote sensing analysis with our multisited political ecology approach where we conducted field-based interviews in study sites between 2018 and 2020. Our integrated analysis identified three common periods of deforestation spikes at the national and state/region level, but with some notable disparities between regions as well as across and within townships and village tracts. We found the rate and geography of deforestation were most influenced by the territorial jurisdictions of armed authorities, national political economic reforms and timber regulations, and proximity to national borders and their respective geopolitical relations. The absence or presence of ceasefires in the north and southeast did not solely explain deforestation patterns. Rather than consider ceasefire or war as a singular explanatory variable effecting forest cover change, we demonstrate the need to analyze armed conflict as a dynamic multisited and diffuse phenomenon, which is simultaneously integrated into broader political economy and geopolitical forces.

Forest livelihoods and a "green recovery" from the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights and emerging research priorities from India

For those concerned with the future of forests, the COVID-19 pandemic has simultaneously offered cause for great concern, and renewed hope. On one hand, the pandemic is occurring at a time when forests are already under unprecedented pressures from climate change, amplifying concerns about unsustainable forest extraction in the name of economic recovery. On the other hand, however, the crisis has helped to gather momentum around the notion of a "green recovery," including setting aside additional land for forest conservation. Drawing insights from past and ongoing research in India, we highlight an issue that exemplifies the tension between these two poles: the role of forests as social safety nets for rural communities in developing countries. It is well established that forests can provide critical resources for rural livelihoods, especially in times of crisis, and preliminary reports suggest that these resources have become even more important in the context of India's COVID lockdowns, and mass return migration from urban to rural areas. As the second wave of the pandemic continues to unfold in India, we highlight some key research priorities, including: 1) understanding how and to what extent forest-dependent communities and industries are changing their use of wood- and non-wood resources in the context of return migration and economic stress; 2) tracking shifts in forest cover, structure, and composition that may result from increased extractive pressures; 3) assessing the role of institutions, whether local, national, or international, in mediating these outcomes. Drawing on these observations, we suggest some key principles for integrating forest-based livelihoods into "green recovery," founded on principles that articulate forests as complex and integrated social-ecological systems, prioritize equity, and build on past learnings of community-based forest management.

Three Decades of Land Cover Change in East Africa

Population growth rates in Sub-Saharan East Africa are among the highest in the world, creating increasing pressure for land cover conversion. To date, however, there has been no comprehensive assessment of regional land cover change, and most long-term trends have not yet been quantified. Using a designed sample of satellite-based observations of historical land cover change, we estimate the areas and trends in nine land cover classes from 1998 to 2017 in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia. Our analysis found an 18,154,000 (±1,580,000) ha, or 34.8%, increase in the area of cropland in East Africa. Conversion occurred primarily from Open Grasslands, Wooded Grasslands, and Open Forests, causing a large-scale reduction in woody vegetation classes. We observed far more conversion (by approximately 20 million hectares) of woody classes to less-woody classes than succession in the direction of increasing trees and shrubs. Spatial patterns within our sample highlight regional land cover conversion hotspots, such as the Central Zambezian Miombo Woodlands, as potential areas of concern related to the conservation of natural ecosystems. Our findings reflect a rapidly growing population that is moving into new areas, with a 43.5% increase in the area of Settlements over the three-decade period. Our results show the areas and ecoregions most impacted by three decades of human development, both spatially and statistically.

Impact of Land Cover Change Due to Armed Conflicts on Soil Erosion in the Basin of the Northern Al-Kabeer River in Syria Using the RUSLE Model

Due to armed conflicts, the sudden changes in land cover are among the most drastic and recurring shocks on an international scale, and thus, have become a major source of threat to soil and water conservation. Throughout this analysis, the impact of land cover change on spatio-temporal variations of soil erosion from 2009/2010 to 2018/2019 was investigated using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. The goal was to identify the characteristics and variations of soil erosion under armed conflicts in the basin of the Northern Al-Kabeer river in Syria. The soil erosion rate is 4 t ha−1 year−1 with a standard deviation of 6.4 t ha−1 year−1. In addition, the spatial distribution of erosion classes was estimated. Only about 10.1% of the basin is subject to a tolerable soil erosion rate and 79.9% of the study area experienced erosion at different levels. The soil erosion area of regions with no changes was 10%. The results revealed an increase in soil erosion until 2013/2014 and a decrease during the period from 20013/2014 to 2018/2019. This increase is a result of forest fires under armed conflict, particularly toward the steeper slopes. Coniferous forest as well as transitional woodland and scrub are the dominant land cover types in the upper part of the basin, for which the average post-fire soil loss rates (caused by factor C) were 200% to 800% higher than in the pre-fire situation. In the period from 2013/2014 to 2019/2020, soil erosion was mitigated due to a ceasefire that was agreed upon after 2016, resulting in decreased human pressures on soils in contested areas. By comparing 2009/2010 (before war) with 2018/2019 (at the end of the war stage), it can be concluded that the change in C factors slowed down the deterioration trend of soil erosion and reduced the average soil erosion rate in more than half of the basin by about 10–75%. The area concerned is located in the western part of the basin and is relatively far from the centers of armed conflicts. In contrast, the areas with increased soil erosion by about 60–400% are situated in the northeast and east, with shorter distances to armed conflict centers. These findings can be explained by forest fires, after which the burned forests were turned into agricultural land or refugee camps and road areas. Understanding the complex biophysical and socio-economic interactions of exposure to land loss is a key to guarantee regional environmental protection and to conserve the ecological quality of soil and forest systems.

A partnership to build scientific capacity of Rwanda's future conservationists: The Memoirs Program

The future of primates depends on conservationists in primate range countries having the education and opportunities needed to facilitate conservation efforts. However, most primates are found in countries where conservation is underfunded. Rwanda is home to 14 primate species, with three being listed as endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. Their remaining native habitats are scarce, highly fragmented, and surrounded by high human densities. Lacking education opportunities and the loss of qualified individuals following decades of political instability created a need for well-trained conservationists to tackle conservation challenges in Rwanda. The Memoirs Program, a science capacity-building partnership between Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund (DFGF), University of Rwanda (UR), the Rwanda Development Board, and Cleveland Metroparks Zoo, aims to train the next generation of Rwandan conservationists. Annually, the Memoirs Program provides 10-12 top students from the UR Conservation Biology undergraduate program the opportunity to conduct senior research projects (Memoirs) at DFGF addressing conservation issues in and around Rwanda's protected areas. Students receive one-on-one supervision by DFGF scientists and affiliates to supplement UR mentorship, along with targeted teaching modules that reinforce and complement UR curricula. In continuation of the Memoirs Program, participants are offered professional development, employment opportunities, and support to publish their research in peer-reviewed journals. Since inception of the Program in 2003, 123 students have participated with 83% being employed or pursuing higher education degrees in conservation-related fields in Rwanda and the region. Pre- and post-training comparison of oral presentation skills, one of the teaching modules, involving 22 students demonstrated increased post-training performance. The Memoirs Program represents an effective partnership between the government, an international conservation non-governmental organization, and a public higher-learning institution in a developing country to support high-performing students to become tomorrow's conservation leaders. This model could be replicated within Rwanda and in other regions of the world.

Potential impacts of COVID-19 on tropical forest recovery

COVID-19 has impacted humanity and the global environment in myriad ways, and more changes are on the horizon. Here we consider the impact of COVID-19 on our collective ability to restore degraded habitats and facilitate forest recovery in the tropics.

Deforestation in Colombian protected areas increased during post-conflict periods

Protected areas (PAs) are a foundational and essential strategy for reducing biodiversity loss. However, many PAs around the world exist on paper only; thus, while logging and habitat conversion may be banned in these areas, illegal activities often continue to cause alarming habitat destruction. In such cases, the presence of armed conflict may ultimately prevent incursions to a greater extent than the absence of conflict. Although there are several reports of habitat destruction following cessation of conflict, there has never been a systematic and quantitative “before-and-after-conflict” analysis of a large sample of PAs and surrounding areas. Here we report the results of such a study in Colombia, using an open-access global forest change dataset. By analysing 39 PAs over three years before and after Colombia’s peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), we found a dramatic and highly significant increase in the deforestation rate for the majority of these areas and their buffer zones. We discuss the reasons behind such findings from the Colombian case, and debate some general conservation lessons applicable to other countries undergoing post-conflict transitions.

Exploring social-ecological systems in the transition from war to peace: A scenario-based approach to forecasting the post-conflict landscape in a Colombian region

This paper describes the relationship between the landscape and the socio-economic and political characteristics of a highly biodiverse Andean region of Colombia, which is now recovering from the socio-ecological impact of protracted armed conflict. We quantify the current spatial relationship between nature and society, and we include legacy effects from the most recent period of armed conflict and its consequences of forced displacement and land use disruption. The procedure followed provides a quantitative model where a minimum number of socio-economic and political variables explain the variation in land cover. The results represent the relationship between land use intensity and the main socio-economic and political indicators, highlighting a close interaction between landscape configuration, socio-economic structure of local populations, coercive conservation and armed conflict. A simulated post-conflict landscape shows a clear transition gradient towards agrarian expansion and intensification, also in systems where naturalness is a relevant feature. The peace process in Colombia offers opportunities for new schemes of land planning and management, including natural resource governance and policy reforms to improve welfare and resilience of local communities. The results allow to define options for future planning given the possible consequences of socio-political legacy effects yet to fully play out across Colombia.

Fixing the ecosystem: Conservation, crisis and capital in Rwanda's Gishwati Forest

Conservation-development projects are increasingly enacted across large expanses of land where human livelihoods hang in the balance. Recent initiatives-often called 'landscape approaches' or 'ecosystem-based' conservation-aim to achieve economic development and conservation goals through managing hybrid spaces. I argue that the landscape/ecosystem approach is a socioecological fix: an effort to resolve social-environmental crises through sinking capital (financial, natural, and social) into an imagined ecosystem. Rwanda's Gishwati Forest has been the locus of diverse crises and fixes over the past 40 years, including an industrial forestry and dairy project, a refugee settlement, a privately managed chimpanzee sanctuary, a carbon sequestration platform, and, most recently, an "integrated silvo-pastoral conservation landscape." This paper considers how these governance schemes have intersected with broader processes of agrarian change to generate crises that subsequent conservation/development projects then attempt to resolve. I demonstrate how visions for ecosystems privilege certain forms of governance around which imagined socioecological histories are mobilized to frame problems and legitimize certain solutions, technologies, and actors. The Gishwati ecosystem and its fixes are repeatedly defined through an imaginary of crisis and degradation that engenders large-scale landscape modification while foreclosing reflection about root causes of crises or how these might be addressed. Thus, even while conservation/development paradigms have shifted over the past 40 years (from separating people and nature to integrating them in conservation landscapes), this crisis-fix metabolism has consistently generated livelihood insecurity for the tens of thousands of people living in and around Gishwati. Imagining and enacting more just and inclusive social-environmental landscapes will require making space for diverse voices to define ecosystem form and function as well as addressing deeply rooted power imbalances that are at the heart of recurrent crises.

Dramatic cropland expansion in Myanmar following political reforms threatens biodiversity

Effective conservation planning needs to consider the threats of cropland expansion to biodiversity. We used Myanmar as a case study to devise a modeling framework to identify which Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are most vulnerable to cropland expansion in a context of increasingly resolved armed conflict. We studied 13 major crops with the potential to expand into KBAs. We used mixed-effects models and an agricultural versus forest rent framework to model current land use and conversion of forests to cropland for each crop. We found that the current cropland distribution is explained by higher agricultural value, lower transportation costs and lower elevation. We also found that protected areas and socio-political instability are effective in slowing down deforestation with conflicts in Myanmar damaging farmland and displacing farmers elsewhere. Under plausible economic development and socio-political stability scenarios, the models forecast 48.5% of land to be converted. We identified export crops such as maize, and pigeon pea as key deforestation drivers. This cropland expansion would pose a major threat to Myanmar’s freshwater KBAs. We highlight the importance of considering rapid land-use transitions in the tropics to devise robust conservation plans.

Responding to Climate Change in Tropical Countries Emerging from Armed Conflicts: Harnessing Climate Finance, Peacebuilding, and Sustainable Food

Linking climate action with sustainable development goals (SDGs) might incentivize social and political support to forest conservation. However, further examination of the conceptual entry points for linking efforts for reducing forest-based emissions with those for delivering SDGs is required. This review paper aims to contribute to fulfilling this research need. It provides insights into the links between conserving forests for climate change mitigation and peacebuilding. Specifically, the paper examines opportunities to harness climate finance for conserving forests and achieving long-lasting peace and sustainable food. It does so via a literature review and the examination of the Orinoquia region of Colombia. The findings from the literature review suggest that harnessing climate finance for conserving forests and peacebuilding is, in theory, viable if the activities are designed in accordance with social, institutional, and economic factors. Meanwhile, the Orinoquia region provides evidence that these two seemingly intractable problems are proposed to be solved together. At a time when efforts for reducing forest-based emissions are being designed and targeted at (post-) conflict areas in Colombia and elsewhere, the paper’s findings might demonstrate the compatibility of programs aimed at reducing forest-based emissions with efforts relating to peacebuilding and sustainable food to both environmental and non-environmental government agencies.

Factoring attitudes towards armed conflict risk into selection of protected areas for conservation

The high incidence of armed conflicts in biodiverse regions poses significant challenges in achieving international conservation targets. Because attitudes towards risk vary, we assessed different strategies for protected area planning that reflected alternative attitudes towards the risk of armed conflicts. We find that ignoring conflict risk will deliver the lowest return on investment. Opting to completely avoid conflict-prone areas offers limited improvements and could lead to species receiving no protection. Accounting for conflict by protecting additional areas to offset the impacts of armed conflicts would not only increase the return on investment (an effect that is enhanced when high-risk areas are excluded) but also increase upfront conservation costs. Our results also demonstrate that fine-scale estimations of conflict risk could enhance the cost-effectiveness of investments. We conclude that achieving biodiversity targets in volatile regions will require greater initial investment and benefit from fine-resolution estimates of conflict risk.