Predicted regime shift in the seagrass ecosystem of the Gulf of Arguin driven by climate change

Range map data of marine ecosystem structuring species under global climate change

Data on contemporary and future geographical distributions of marine species are crucial for guiding conservation and management policies in face of climate change. However, available distributional patterns have overlooked key ecosystem structuring species, despite their numerous ecological and socioeconomic services. Future range estimates are mostly available for few species at regional scales, and often rely on the outdated Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios of climate change, hindering global biodiversity estimates within the framework of current international climate policies. Here, we provide range maps for 980 marine structuring species of seagrasses, kelps, fucoids, and cold-water corals under present-day conditions (from 2010 to 2020) and future scenarios (from 2090 to 2100) spanning from low carbon emission scenarios aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-1.9), to higher emissions under reduced mitigation strategies (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). These models were developed using state-of-the-art and advanced machine learning algorithms linking the most comprehensive and quality-controlled datasets of occurrence records with high-resolution, biologically relevant predictor variables. By integrating the best aspects of species distribution modelling over key ecosystem structuring species, our datasets hold the potential to enhance the ability to inform strategic and effective conservation policy, ultimately supporting the resilience of ocean ecosystems.

Long range gene flow beyond predictions from oceanographic transport in a tropical marine foundation species

The transport of passively dispersed organisms across tropical margins remains poorly understood. Hypotheses of oceanographic transportation potential lack testing with large scale empirical data. To address this gap, we used the seagrass species, Halodule wrightii, which is unique in spanning the entire tropical Atlantic. We tested the hypothesis that genetic differentiation estimated across its large-scale biogeographic range can be predicted by simulated oceanographic transport. The alternative hypothesis posits that dispersal is independent of ocean currents, such as transport by grazers. We compared empirical genetic estimates and modelled predictions of dispersal along the distribution of H. wrightii. We genotyped eight microsatellite loci on 19 populations distributed across Atlantic Africa, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, Brazil and developed a biophysical model with high-resolution ocean currents. Genetic data revealed low gene flow and highest differentiation between (1) the Gulf of Mexico and two other regions: (2) Caribbean-Brazil and (3) Atlantic Africa. These two were more genetically similar despite separation by an ocean. The biophysical model indicated low or no probability of passive dispersal among populations and did not match the empirical genetic data. The results support the alternative hypothesis of a role for active dispersal vectors like grazers.

Seagrasses of West Africa: New Discoveries, Distribution Limits and Prospects for Management

The onset of a major seagrass initiative in West Africa enabled important seagrass discoveries in several countries, in one of the least documented seagrass regions in the world. Four seagrass species occur in western Africa, Cymodocea nodosa, Halodule wrightii, Ruppia maritima and Zostera noltei. An area of about 62,108 ha of seagrasses was documented in the studied region comprising seven countries: Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Cabo Verde. Extensive meadows of Zostera noltei were recorded for the first time at Saloum Delta, Senegal, which represents the new southernmost distribution limit of this species. This paper also describes the seagrass morphology for some study areas and explores the main stressors to seagrasses as well as conservation initiatives to protect these newly documented meadows in West Africa. The produced information and maps serve as a starting point for researchers and managers to monitor temporal and spatial changes in the meadows’ extent, health and condition as an efficient management tool.