Future food self-sufficiency in Iran: A model-based analysis

Agricultural Adaptation to Reconcile Food Security and Water Sustainability Under Climate Change: The Case of Cereals in Iran

In this study, we simulate the crop yield and water footprint (WF) of major food crops of Iran on irrigated and rainfed croplands for the historical and the future climate. We assess the effects of three agricultural adaptation strategies to climate change in terms of potential blue water savings. We then evaluate to what extent these savings can reduce unsustainable blue WF. We find that cereal production increases under climate change in both irrigated and rainfed croplands (by 2.6-3.1 and 1.4-2.3 million t yr-1, respectively) due to increased yields (6.6%-78.7%). Simultaneously, the unit WF (m3 t-1) tends to decrease in most scenarios. However, the annual consumptive water use increases in both irrigated and rainfed croplands (by 0.3-1.8 and 0.5-1.7 billion m3 yr-1, respectively). This is most noticeable in the arid regions, where consumptive water use increases by roughly 70% under climate change. Off-season cultivation is the most effective adaptation strategy to alleviate additional pressure on blue water resources with blue water savings of 14-15 billion m3 yr-1. The second most effective is WF benchmarking, which results in blue water savings of 1.1-3.5 billion m3 yr-1. The early planting strategy is less effective but still leads to blue water savings of 1.7-1.9 billion m3 yr-1. In the same order of effectiveness, these three strategies can reduce blue water scarcity and unsustainable blue water use in Iran under current conditions. However, we find that these strategies do not mitigate water scarcity in all provinces per se, nor all months of the year.

A Societal Metabolism Approach to Effectively Analyze the Water–Energy–Food Nexus in an Agricultural Transboundary River Basin

We implemented the semantically open conceptual framework ‘Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism’ (MuSIASEM) to deal with nexus challenges in agricultural production systems in transboundary river basins, using the Iranian Aras River Basin as a case study. The performance of the agricultural sector was characterized for relevant typologies of crop production using metabolic profiles, i.e., inputs and outputs per ton of crop produced, per hectare of land use, and per hour of labor. This analysis was contextualized across hierarchical levels of analysis, including the agronomic context at the regional level (rainfed versus irrigated cultivation), the socio-economic and political context at the national level (food sovereignty; urbanization), and the hydro-ecological context of the larger transboundary river basin (water constraints, GHG emissions). We found that the simultaneous use of two different interrelated logics of aggregation—the productivity of land and labor (relevant for the agronomic and socio-economic dimension) and the density of flows under different land uses (relevant for the hydrological and ecological dimension)—allowed for the identification of trade-offs in policy deliberations. In the case of Iran, it showed that striving for strategic autonomy will exacerbate the current water crisis; with the current cropping patterns, agronomic improvements will not suffice to avert a water crisis. It was concluded that the proposed approach fills an important gap in nexus research, but to effectively guide nexus governance in the region, a co-production of the analysis with social actors as well as more complete data sets at the river basin level would be essential.

Shifting to a Sustainable Dietary Pattern in Iranian Population: Current Evidence and Future Directions

The need for a shift in diet toward a more sustainable one has reached an urgency in certain regions, including Iran, due to more rapid climate change and a higher level of vulnerability. This study was undertaken to identify and summarize available data on changes required in the current Iranian diet to make it more sustainable and the extent to which current policies in the country have addressed such a shift. In this study, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of science, as well as Iranian scientific search engines, including Scientific Information Database and Magiran, were systematically searched from January 1990 to July 2021. A total of 11 studies and policy analyses were included in this study. Based on the findings, moving Iranian diet toward sustainability will require increase in consumption of dairy, fruits, vegetables, cereals, poultry, and legumes and decrease in consumption of bread, rice, pasta, red meat, eggs, fats, sugars, and sweets. There has been a great deal of effort and investment on policies and strategies to decrease the amount of sugar, salt, and fat (specifically trans-fatty acids) in the Iranian diet, which makes it more sustainable healthwise. Several policies and programs have been implemented to tackle non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by reducing access to unhealthy foods, which is in line with health dimension of a sustainable diet. However, there is almost no direct address to ecological aspect of sustainable diet in the food and nutrition policy documents in the ccountry. Development of an enabling environment to a sustainable diet will require policy and actions to improve public awareness, support study to provide evidence and identify possible alternatives, and plan and implement interventions/programs to promote and facilitate healthy and sustainable diets.

Ecological footprints of environmental resources for agricultural production in Iran: a model-based study

A modeling system was used to calculate the resource footprints (land, water, nutrients, energy, fuel, electricity, and carbon) on a large scale in agricultural production systems (Iran as a case study), and this report is an introduction of this modeling system for future studies. Under irrigated conditions, the highest land footprint was observed in pulses and oil grains (0.6 ha t^-1). The lowest water footprints were found in silage corn (300 m³ t^-1), and the highest water footprints were observed in oil grains (4525 m³ t^-1). The highest footprints of nitrogen were observed in maize (31.7 kg t^-1), wheat (30.9 kg t^-1), and oil grains (30.4 kg t^-1), and the lowest value belonged to production of sugar crops (2.6 kg t^-1). Most of the energy, fuel, electricity, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were occurred under irrigated cropping systems compared with the rainfed systems. Under irrigated conditions, the highest footprints of energy, fuel, and electricity and GHG emissions occurred in the production of oil grains, and their values were 24397 MJ t^-1, 161 L t^-1, 1195 kWh t^-1, and 1699 kg CO_2eq. t^-1, respectively. In general, wheat production in Iran has the highest cost in terms of resource use (water, elements, energy, and carbon) compared with the other plant products. Livestock and poultry products (especially red meat) also had the highest ecological footprint among the products.

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Food Security and Agriculture in Iran: A Survey

The consequences of COVID-19 on the economy and agriculture have raised many concerns about global food security, especially in developing countries. Given that food security is a critical component that is affected by global crises, beside the limited studies carried out on the macro-impacts of COVID-19 on food security in Iran, this paper is an attempt to address the dynamic impacts of COVID-19 on food security along with economic and environmental challenges in Iran. For this purpose, a survey was conducted with the hypothesis that COVID-19 has not affected food security in Iran. To address this fundamental hypothesis, we applied the systematic review method to obtain the evidence. Various evidences, including indices and statistics, were collected from national databases, scientific reports, field observations, and interviews. Preliminary results revealed that COVID-19 exerts its effects on the economy, agriculture, and food security of Iran through six major mechanisms, corresponding to a 30% decrease in the purchasing power parity in 2020 beside a significant increase in food prices compared to 2019. On the other hand, the expanding environmental constraints in Iran reduce the capacity of the agricultural sector to play a crucial role in the economy and ensure food security, and in this regard, COVID-19 forces the national programs and budget to combat rising ecological limitations. Accordingly, our study rejects the hypothesis that COVID-19 has not affected food security in Iran.