The effectiveness of mobility control, shortening of restaurants' opening hours, and working from home on control of COVID-19 spread in Japan

Psychological distress is affected by fear of COVID-19 via lifestyle disruption and leisure restriction among older adults in Japan: a cross-sectional study

Introduction

Engaging in social activities is an essential component of a healthy lifestyle for community-dwelling older adults. Critically, as with past disasters, there is concern about the effects of long-term activity restrictions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on health of older adults. However, the precise associations between fear of COVID-19, lifestyle satisfaction, leisure activities, and psychological distress are unclear.

Objective

The purpose of this study was to comprehensively determine the associations between fear of COVID-19, lifestyle satisfaction, leisure engagement, and psychological distress among community-dwelling older adults in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Materials and methods

A questionnaire survey administered by mail was conducted from October 1 to October 15, 2021. The questionnaire included the Fear of COVID-19 Scale, the Lifestyle Satisfaction Scale, the Leisure Activity Scale for Contemporary Older Adults, and the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale-6. Based on previous studies, we developed a hypothetical model for the association between fear of COVID-19, lifestyle satisfaction, leisure engagement, and psychological distress and performed structural equation modeling to assess the relationships between these variables.

Results

Participants included 301 Japanese citizens (23.6% male, 76.4% female), with a mean age of 76.7 ± 4.58 years. Goodness-of-fit from structural equation modeling was generally good. Analysis of standardized coefficients revealed a significant positive relationship between fear of COVID-19 and psychological distress (β = 0.33, p < 0.001) and lifestyle satisfaction and leisure activities (β = 0.35, p < 0.001). We further observed a significant negative relationship between fear of COVID-19 and lifestyle satisfaction (β = -0.23, p < 0.001) and between leisure activities and psychological distress (β = -0.33, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Fear of COVID-19 is significantly associated with psychological distress, both directly and via its effects on lifestyle satisfaction and leisure activities. That is, not only did fear of COVID-19 directly impact psychological distress of participants, it also affected psychological distress through lifestyle disruption and leisure restriction. This results may be used to better understand how a national emergency that substantially restricts daily life, such as COVID-19 or an earthquake disaster, can affect the psychological health and wellbeing of older, community-dwelling adults.

Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings

Social distancing measures (SDMs) are community-level interventions that aim to reduce person-to-person contacts in the community. SDMs were a major part of the responses first to contain, then to mitigate, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the community. Common SDMs included limiting the size of gatherings, closing schools and/or workplaces, implementing work-from-home arrangements, or more stringent restrictions such as lockdowns. This systematic review summarized the evidence for the effectiveness of nine SDMs. Almost all of the studies included were observational in nature, which meant that there were intrinsic risks of bias that could have been avoided were conditions randomly assigned to study participants. There were no instances where only one form of SDM had been in place in a particular setting during the study period, making it challenging to estimate the separate effect of each intervention. The more stringent SDMs such as stay-at-home orders, restrictions on mass gatherings and closures were estimated to be most effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Most studies included in this review suggested that combinations of SDMs successfully slowed or even stopped SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community. However, individual effects and optimal combinations of interventions, as well as the optimal timing for particular measures, require further investigation. This article is part of the theme issue 'The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic: the evidence'.

Investigating the epidemiological and economic effects of a third-party certification policy for restaurants with COVID-19 prevention measures

This study investigates the effects of a third-party certification policy for restaurants (including bars) that comply with indoor infection-prevention measures on COVID-19 cases and economic activities. We focus on the case of Yamanashi Prefecture in Japan, which introduced a third-party certification policy that accredits facilities, predominantly restaurants, that comply with the designated guidelines. We employ a difference-in-differences design for each of our epidemiological and economic analyses. The estimation results show that, from July 2020 to April 2021, the certification policy reduced the total number of new infection cases by approximately 45.3% (848 cases), while increasing total sales and the number of customers per restaurant by approximately 12.8% (3.21 million Japanese yen or $30,000) and 30.3% (2909 customers), respectively, compared to the non-intervention scenarios. The results suggest that a third-party certification policy can be an effective policy to mitigate the trade-off between economic activities and infection prevention during a pandemic, especially when effective vaccines are not widely available.

Simulation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trends in Tokyo considering vaccinations, virus mutations, government policies and PCR tests

The eighth wave of COVID-19 infection in the Tokyo area has brought daily confirmed cases to a new higher level. This paper aims to explain the previous seven epidemic waves and forecast the eighth epidemic trend of the area using agent-based modeling and extended SEIR denotation. Four key considerations are investigated in this research, that are: 1. Vaccination, 2. Virus mutations, 3. Governmental policies and 4. PCR tests. Our study finds that the confirmed cases in the previous seven epidemic waves were only the tip of the iceberg. Using data prior to December 1 2022, the eighth wave is expected to hover high in December 2022 and January 2023. Our research pioneers in the simulation of antibody declination on an individual level. Comparing the simulated results, we find that the arrival of new epidemic waves are related to the decline in the number of antibody possessors, especially the sixth and the seventh epidemic waves. Our simulation also suggests that faced with low severe and death rates, PCR tests would not make much difference to reduce overall infections. In this case, maintaining PCR tests to a low level helps to reduce both social cost and public anxiety. However, if faced with the opposite case, PCR tests should be adjusted to a higher level to detect early infections. Such level of PCR tests should be compatible with available medical resources.

High-Speed railways and the spread of Covid-19

High-speed railways (HSRs) greatly decrease transportation costs and facilitate the movement of goods, services, and passengers across cities. In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, however, HSRs may contribute to the cross-regional spread of the new coronavirus. This paper evaluates the role of HSRs in spreading Covid-19 from Wuhan to other Chinese cities. We use train frequencies in 1971 and 1990 as instrumental variables. Empirical results from gravity models demonstrate that one more HSR train originating from Wuhan each day before the Wuhan lockdown increases the cumulative number of Covid-19 cases in a city by about 10 percent. The empirical analysis suggests that other transportation modes, including normal-speed trains and airline flights, also contribute to the spread of Covid-19, but their effects are smaller than the effect of HSRs. This paper's findings indicate that transportation infrastructures, especially HSR trains originating from a city where a pandemic broke out, can be important factors promoting the spread of an infectious disease.

Changes in mobility amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Sapporo City, Japan: An investigation through the relationship between spatiotemporal population density and urban facilities

By the end of 2021, the Omicron variant of coronavirus disease 2019 had become the dominant cause of a worldwide pandemic crisis. This demands a deeper analysis to support policy makers in creating interventions that not only protect people from the pandemic but also remedy its negative effects on the economy. Thus, this study investigated people's mobility changes through the relationship between spatiotemporal population density and urban facilities. Results showed that places related to daily services, restaurants, commercial areas, and offices experienced decreased visits, with the highest decline belonging to commercial facilities. Visits to health care and production facilities were stable on weekdays but increased on holidays. Educational institutions' visits decreased on weekdays but increased on holidays. People's visits to residential housing and open spaces increased, with the rise in residential housing visits being more substantial. The results also confirmed that policy interventions (e.g., declaration of emergency and upgrade of restriction level) have a great impact on people's mobility in the short term. The findings would seem to indicate that visit patterns at service and restaurant places decreased least during the pandemic. The analysis outcomes suggest that policy makers should pay more attention to risk perception enhancement as a long-term measure. Furthermore, the study clarified the population density of each facility type in a time series. Improving model performance would be promising for tracking and predicting the spread of future pandemics.

Workplace impact on employees: A Lifelines Corona Research Initiative on the return to work

A large proportion of the global workforce migrated home during the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns. It remains unclear what the exact differences between home workers and non-home workers were, especially during the pandemic when a return to work was imminent. How were building, workplace, and related facilities associated with workers' perceptions and health? What are the lessons to be learned? Lifelines Corona Research Initiative was used to compare employees' workplaces and related concerns, facilities, work quality, and health in a complete case analysis (N = 12,776) when return to work was imminent. Mann-Whitney U, logistic regression, and Wilcoxon matched-pairs were used for analyses. Notwithstanding small differences, the results show that home workers had less favourable scores for concerns about and facilities of on-site buildings and workplaces upon return to work, but better scores for work quality and health than non-home workers. However, additional analyses also suggest that building, workplace, and related facilities may have had the capacity to positively influence employees' affective responses and work quality, but not always their health.

Capturing Changes in Residential Occupant Behavior Due to Work from Home in Japan as a Consequence of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Since there is a possibility that work from home will become one of the major working styles in the era of a new normal after the COVID-19 pandemic, it is necessary to examine an effect of work from home on life of residents at home and on energy consumption. Therefore, a web-based questionnaire survey was conducted at the end of October 2020 for households in which any of the family members was a work from home worker. In regard to the changes in life schedule, work from home helped 21.5% of respondents to sleep 30 min more or even longer. This shows that the loss of commuting time to work due to work from home improved the health of respondents in terms of sleep. In terms of the changes in energy consumption, more than a quarter of households experienced an increase in electricity consumption. Around 40~50% of households whose monthly electricity consumption increased from last year were not aware of the reasons for the increase or realized it for the first time when they answered the questionnaire survey. This indicates that feedback using home energy management systems, etc., play an important role in promoting energy-saving behavioral changes. An analysis of the causes of the increase in energy consumption by households reveals that the increase in hours of use of air-conditioners is significantly correlated with the increase in household electricity consumption in August (p = less than 0.01). The large-scale questionnaire survey on Japanese housing during the COVID-19 pandemic in this study elucidated that work from home as a countermeasure against COVID-19 infection affected the residents’ lives and the energy consumption of each household. This paper also showed the causes of the increase in household energy consumption and the importance of feedback, such as HEMS, in promoting energy-saving behavior. These results are expected to help to improve health of residents and energy saving in the era of a new normal.

The impact of declaring the state of emergency on human mobility during COVID-19 pandemic in Japan

Background/objectives

Japan has responded to the spread of COVID-19 through declaration of a state of emergency to regulate human mobility. Although the declaration was enforced by the government for prefectures, there is limited evidence as to whether the public complied with requests for voluntary stay at home. In this study, we evaluated the impact of declaring a state of emergency on human mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan.

Methods

We utilized daily human mobility data for 47 prefectures in Japan. Data were collected via mobile phone from February 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021. Difference-in-difference analysis was utilized to estimate the effects of the declaration of a state of emergency on prefectures in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba) in comparison to other prefectures where the state of emergency was first lifted (Osaka, Hyogo, Fukuoka, and Aichi).

Results

Human mobility was suppressed during the second state of emergency, from January 8 to March 21, 2021. However, the impact was weaker for the second state of emergency compared to the first.

Conclusion

In Japan, government requests for stay at home, such as the declaration of a state of emergency, were temporarily able to control human mobility. However, the second state of emergency was not as effective as the first. If additional need to regulate human mobility arises, self-restraint with stronger enforcement should be considered.

The macroeconomics of COVID-19 exit strategy: the case of Japan

In this paper, I use a simple SIR Macro model to examine Japan's soft lockdown policies in 2021 under the COVID-19 crisis. As real-time research, this paper consists of two parts written during two different research periods. The first part, which was originally reported in February 2021, studies the Japan's second soft lockdown policy (state of emergency declaration) from January to March 2021. After the model is calibrated using 2020 data, the results show that a long enough lockdown can avoid future lockdowns, improving both the infection and the economy. In addition, I propose the ICU targeting policy, which keeps the number of severe patients at a constant level, mimicking the monetary policy's inflation targeting. The model's prediction is evaluated from an ex-post perspective in the second part, written in July 2021. I find that the model broadly captures the realized consequences of the second soft lockdown and the subsequent paths. Furthermore, the simulation is projected to the end of the pandemic under a revised scenario, incorporating the proliferation of COVID-19 variants. Finally, I discuss the effectiveness of the inverse lockdown (economic stimulus) policy in the fall of 2021 under the dynamic infection externality.