Combined impact of future trends on healthcare utilisation of older people: A Delphi study

How Delphi studies in the health sciences find consensus: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Delphi studies are primarily used in the health sciences to find consensus. They inform clinical practice and influence structures, processes, and framework conditions of healthcare. The practical research-how Delphi studies are conducted-has seldom been discussed methodologically or documented systematically. The aim of this scoping review is to fill this research gap and to identify shortcomings in the methodological presentation in the literature. On the basis of the analysis, we derive recommendations for the quality-assured implementation of Delphi studies.

METHODS

Forming the basis of this scoping review are publications on consensus Delphi studies in the health sciences between January 1, 2018, and April 21, 2021, in the databases Scopus, MEDLINE via PubMed, CINAHL, and Epistemonikos. Included were publications in German and English containing the words "Delphi" in the title and "health" and "consensus" in the title or abstract. The practical research was analyzed for the qualitative content of the publications according to three deductive main categories, to which an influence on the result of Delphi studies can be imputed (expert panel, questionnaire design, process and feedback design).

RESULTS

A total of 287 consensus Delphi studies were included in the review, whereby 43% reported having carried out a modified Delphi. In most cases, heterogeneous expert groups from research, clinical practice, health economics, and health policy were surveyed. In about a quarter of the Delphi studies, affected parties, such as patients, were part of the expert panel. In the Delphi questionnaires it was most common for standardized Likert scales to be combined with open-ended questions. Which method was used to analyze the open-ended responses was not reported in 62% of the Delphi studies. Consensus is largely (81%) defined as percentage agreement.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show considerable differences in how Delphi studies are carried out, making assessments and comparisons between them difficult. Sometimes an approach points to unintended effects, or biases in the individual judgments of the respondents and, thus, in the overall results of Delphi studies. For this reason, we extrapolate suggestions for how certain comparability and quality assurance can be achieved for Delphi studies.

Forecasting the future of smart hospitals: findings from a real-time delphi study

BACKGROUND

In concert with other digital technologies, artificial intelligence (AI) is shaping the vision of smart hospitals. The transformation into smart hospitals, however, is all but trivial due to the lack of financial and human resources, digital skills, and supporting policies. Thus, the extent to which the vision of smart hospitals will eventually become reality is uncertain. In this context, our study provides a multidimensional conceptualization of the immediate future of smart hospitals to 2042.

METHODS

This study employs an iterative mixed-methods approach, including expert workshops and a Delphi study. We conducted a real-time Delphi study to forecast the evolution of smart hospitals in 5-year steps from 2027 to 2042. A total of 39 experts in healthcare, artificial intelligence, and management participated.

RESULTS

Our understanding of a technology-enabled smart hospital in this study includes four dimensions: artificial intelligence (AI), sustainability, ecosystems, and human-centeredness. Our findings underscore the critical need to address the shortage of hospital staff and general practitioners that models predict will peak by 2032. Additionally, our results show a significant shift to individualized medicine and home care. This shift indicates that smart hospitals are expected to leverage AI and digital technologies to tailor care to each patient. Furthermore, the roles and responsibilities of hospital staff will undergo significant changes. Healthcare personnel will have to adapt to new technologies that facilitate more efficient workflows and improve patient engagement in evolving healthcare environments. The results of our study suggest a shift in care to individualized medicine and home care, with corresponding changes in the roles and responsibilities of hospital staff who will employ new technologies.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings from our real-time Delphi study suggest that the vision of smart hospitals is gradually becoming reality over the next 20 years. Advancements in artificial intelligence should enhance operational efficiency and patient-centric care, while facilitating the integration of sustainability practices and fostering collaborative ecosystems. However, addressing challenges such as staff shortages, ethical considerations, and the need for robust digital skills will be essential. A deep pool of expert healthcare practitioners, clear ethical guidelines, and robust digital skills are essential to fully realize this vision and ensure that smart hospitals can meet the evolving needs of healthcare delivery.

Are older people worse off in 2040 regarding health and resources to deal with it? - Future developments in complex health problems and in the availability of resources to manage health problems in the Netherlands

Introduction

Developing sustainable health policy requires an understanding of the future demand for health and social care. We explored the characteristics of the 65+ population in the Netherlands in 2020 and 2040, focusing on two factors that determine care needs: (1) the occurrence of complex health problems and (2) the availability of resources to manage health and care (e.g., health literacy, social support).

Methods

Estimations of the occurrence of complex health problems and the availability of resources for 2020 were based on registry data and patient-reported data. Estimations for 2040 were based on (a) expected demographic developments, and (b) expert opinions using a two-stage Delphi study with 26 experts from policy making, practice and research in the field of health and social care.

Results

The proportion of people aged 65+ with complex health problems and limited resources is expected to increase from 10% in 2020 to 12% in 2040 based on demographic developments, and to 22% in 2040 based on expert opinions. There was high consensus (>80%) that the proportion with complex health problems would be greater in 2040, and lower consensus (50%) on an increase of the proportion of those with limited resources. Developments that are expected to drive the future changes refer to changes in multimorbidity and in psychosocial status (e.g., more loneliness).

Conclusion

The expected increased proportion of people aged 65+ with complex health problems and limited resources together with the expected health and social care workforce shortages represent large challenges for public health and social care policy.

Development of an index system for evaluating the organisational capabilities of primary medical institutions: a modified Delphi study in China

OBJECTIVE

The low performance of primary medical institutions (PMIs) in China is a significant issue. The WHO proposed that the main reason for the failure of the healthcare system in developing countries is poor organisational capabilities. However, there is no international tool for evaluating the organisational capabilities of PMIs. Therefore, this study aimed to develop an index system for evaluating the organisational capabilities of PMIs.

DESIGN

We searched the literature (English and Chinese) published before June 2020 in the PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang databases to conduct a literature review and develop a preliminary indicator pool. Then, two rounds of Delphi expert consultations were conducted by email from June to September 2020, followed by screening, revision and supplementation of the indicators using the boundary value method. Finally, the analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the weight of the indicators.

SETTING

The Delphi consultation questionnaire was distributed to the leaders of PMIs in districts D, F and S in Beijing, China.

PARTICIPANTS

Nineteen leaders of PMIs who had a profound understanding of PMI operations and management and were able to participate in Delphi research from a professional and comprehensive perspective were included in this study.

RESULTS

The Cr values were 0.76 (first-level indicators) and 0.78 (second-level indicators), indicating that the expert consultation results were accurate and reliable. The result of the expert coordination coefficient test was significant at the p<0.01 level, suggesting that the experts' views were consistent. The organisational capability index system includes 3 first-level indicators, 9 second-level indicators and 37 third-level indicators.

CONCLUSIONS

An index system for the organisational capabilities of PMIs was developed. This index system is a scoring system that focuses on basic service capabilities, management capabilities and sustainable development capabilities, and it can determine the priority of improvement areas for PMIs.

Coming to consensus: the Delphi technique

Delphi techniques are used in health care and nursing to systematically bring together explicit and implicit knowledge from experts with a research or practical background, often with the goal of reaching a group consensus. Consensus standards and findings are important for promoting the exchange of information and ideas on an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary basis, and for guaranteeing comparable procedures in diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. Yet, the development of consensus standards using Delphi techniques is challenging because it is dependent on the willingness of experts to participate and the statistical definition of consensus.

General practitioners' views on the influence of long-term care reforms on integrated elderly care in the Netherlands: a qualitative interview study

This study explores the long-term care (LTC) reform in the Netherlands and its relation to the day-to-day integrated care for frail elderly people, from the perspective of general practitioners (GPs). We assessed GP perspectives regarding which elements of the LTC reform have promoted and hindered the provision of person-centred, integrated care for elderly people in the Netherlands. We performed case studies conducted by semi-structured interviews, using the Healthy Alliances (HALL) framework as a framework for thematic analysis. GPs reported that the ideals of the LTC reform (self-reliance) were largely achievable and listed a number of positive effects, including increased healthcare professional engagement and the improved integration of the medical and social domains through the close involvement of social support teams. The reported negative implications were a lack of co-ordination in the implementation of the reforms by the municipality, insufficient funding for multidisciplinary team meetings and the reinforced fragmentation of home care. In particular, the implementation of the system reforms took place with little regard for the local context. We suggest that the implementation of national care reforms should be aligned with factors operating at the micro level and make the following recommendations: use one central location for primary health and social services, integrate regional ICT structures to improve the exchange of patient information, and reduce fragmentation in home care.

Systems medicine 2030: A Delphi study on implementation in the German healthcare system

INTRODUCTION

Systems medicine is based on approaches taken from systems biology, omics research, bio-informatics and network theory. It promises to facilitate a better understanding of the causes of diseases, detection at an earlier stage, and the use of tailor-made approaches to prevention and therapy. This study provides information on how systems medicine could be incorporated into the German healthcare system.

METHODS

In a Policy Delphi, consensus and divergence was elicited on whether experts believed systems medicine could be incorporated into the German healthcare system by 2030. Additionally, factors that could influence the implementation process were analysed. 11 theses on potential systems medicine developments and 193 arguments on influencing factors were evaluated. Experts from health and health-related fields were selected using "purposive sampling".

RESULTS

The experts interviewed expressed their trust in the provision of a legal-political framework, though they remained uncertain as to whether the necessary social discourse on the ethical and cultural questions surrounding systems medicine would occur. They do not (currently) expect systems medicine to be implemented by 2030.

CONCLUSION

Systems medicine is currently regarded as a visionary concept. As such, it would be premature to attempt to judge the success of the translation process at this stage. The results can help with the identification of the challenges involved in implementation, and the action required to achieve this aim.