A basin-level analysis of flood risk in urban and periurban areas: A case study in the metropolitan region of Buenos Aires, Argentina

Monitoring flood risk evolution: A systematic review

Land-use change, climate change, human interventions, and socio-economic developments influence the evolution of the risk components hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, and consequently of flood risk. Adaptive flood risk management is a way to cope with evolving risks, but it requires measuring the evolution of risks. To develop principles of flood risk monitoring, we systematically reviewed scientific literature on flood risk evolution analyses. The reviewed publications indicate a wide spread in increase or decrease of flood risk evolution over decades. Furthermore, the publications show a high diversity in factors and methods for flood risk evolution analysis and indicate the main challenges for developing flood risk monitoring. Flood risk monitoring needs the systematic detection of flood risk evolution by periodically (re)evaluate the factors that influence the risk components-hazard, exposure and vulnerability-modeling those risk components and combining them to quantify flood risk.

Potential Flood Risk in the City of Guasave, Sinaloa, the Effects of Population Growth, and Modifications to the Topographic Relief

The coastal city of Guasave, Sinaloa, located on the Mexican Pacific coast, is subject to extreme precipitation events, which have caused flooding with damage to the city’s infrastructure. The factors that influence flooding are vegetation, geology, degree of soil saturation, drainage characteristics of the watershed, and the shape of the topographic relief. Of the above factors, the topographic relief, which is the subject of the study, has been partially modified in some areas by infrastructure works (from 20.2 m to 17.6 m), and the population of the urban area has grown by 51.8% in 17 years (2004–2021); therefore, the objective is to evaluate the potential flood risk due to changes in this factor and the growth of the urban area. When using this method, the potential flood risk was determined considering four extreme events, 1982, 1990, 1998, and 2019. It was found that the potential risk increases for the whole city, being more intense in sector III, which, before the modification of the topographic relief, was the area with the lowest risk of flooding. In an extreme event such as Hurricane Paul in 1982, practically the entire city would be flooded.

Multiple stressors and social-ecological traps in Pampean streams (Argentina): A conceptual model

Fluvial systems are particularly sensitive to changes in the terrestrial ecosystems where they are embedded, receiving simultaneously the impact of multiple stressors. The design of adequate management policies requires analyzing fluvial systems as social-ecological systems, because the decoupling of natural and social systems can lead to a severe mismatch between maintaining ecological integrity and the pursuit of human well-being. Pampean streams are especially prone to the impact of human activities because they are located in a region that provides almost half of the agricultural production of Argentina and concentrates 66% of the whole population of the country. In the present work, we conceived a general social-ecological framework that links the occurrence of multiple stressors and their impacts on ecosystem services, with changes in environmental perception of streams, which in turn feedback over institutional actions at the watershed's governance. We identified four current key drivers of the dynamics in Pampean streams: a dominant agro-industrial model for the region, a command-and-control governance regime mainly based on an engineering hydraulic perspective, the real estate market speculation of surrounding lands, and the persistence of structural poverty in urban areas. The resulting dynamics resembles the occurrence of different kinds of social-ecological traps, i.e., a highly stable but undesirable state of the system that is difficult to escape. Based on this analysis, we provide a leverage point perspective to avoid this trap. Together, this approach could be applied to other fluvial systems of the world to link the ecological and social domains to multiple stressors analysis, and to improve institutional fit for the sustainability of fluvial social-ecological systems.

Effect of Urban Development in Risk of Floods in Veracruz, Mexico

Urban floods have adverse effects on the population and the economy, and they are increasing in frequency and magnitude. The State of Veracruz is the region of Mexico with the highest number of disasters, more than 50% of the total number nationwide, in the 1970–2015 period. During the 1990s, disasters in this region increased from 5 to 10 events per year, mostly in relation to intense rains and floods. This study analyzes the factors that increase the risk of urban floods in the regions: (i) the Pánuco River, (ii) the Papaloapan River, and (iii) the Coatzacoalcos River regions, combining hazard data and estimates of vulnerability factors. The 95th percentile of daily precipitation (P95) is used as a threshold of heavy rain, i.e., the natural hazard. Vulnerability is estimated in terms of the percentage of natural vegetation loss due to changes in land cover and land use in the hydrological basins and the expansion of the urban areas in the regions under study. The risk of flood was compared with records of flood events focusing on the low-frequency variations of risks and disaster activity. The trends in urban flood activity are related to the loss of natural vegetation and deterioration of the basins leading to a loss of infiltration, i.e., larger runoffs. Even when the intensity of precipitation in recent decades remains without clear trends, or shows negative tendencies in the number of intense events, the number of floods is higher mostly because of the deterioration of hydrologic basins. Therefore, the risk of flooding in the state of Veracruz is mainly related to environmental factors that result in vulnerability rather than changes in the trends of extreme precipitation activity. This result means that disaster risk reduction actions should be mainly related to rehabilitation of the basins.