Electrocardiographic Predictors of Silent Atrial Fibrillation in Cryptogenic Stroke

Factors associated with increased atrial fibrillation detection in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source

BACKGROUND

Studies suggest that longer duration of cardiac monitoring after embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) yields higher detection rates for atrial fibrillation (AF). A common strategy for cardiac monitoring after ESUS starts with a 14-day surface monitor, which is easier to administer, and lower cost compared to implantable monitoring. We tested whether cardiac markers associated with higher likelihood of AF detection can be used to identify patients with ESUS who are more likely to benefit from initial short-term monitoring.

METHODS

We adjudicated stroke etiology from patients with acute ischemic stroke discharged from a tertiary care medical center with 14-day surface cardiac monitor (ZioPatch®) between January 2019 and September 2023. The primary outcome was ≥30 seconds of AF on surface monitoring. Predictors included ECG and echocardiographic markers associated with AF in a general population identified during hospitalization. Associations were analyzed using Chi-squared or Fisher's exact tests and age-adjusted logistic regression.

RESULTS

We identified 415 patients with ESUS (mean age 67.2 years, 49.9% female). 4.3% (n=18/415) developed AF after a median of 13.8 days (IQR 13-15.8) of monitoring. 9.6% (n=8/83) of patients with enlarged left atrial dimension >4cm and 8.0% (n=9/113) of patients with mitral valve regurgitation developed AF. Significantly more patients with AF had a combination of enlarged left atrial dimension and/or mitral valve regurgitation (36.8% with AF vs 61.1% without AF, p=0.037). Adjusting for age, enlarged left atrial dimension remained significantly associated with increased odds of detection of AF (OR 3.17, 95% CI 1.20-8.36).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with ESUS, the rate of AF detection using a surface 14-day cardiac monitor was low. However, the likelihood of detecting AF was higher among patients with enlarged left atrial dimension and mitral valve regurgitation, suggesting this group may benefit most from an initial short-term monitoring strategy.

Computer-Assisted Electrocardiogram Analysis Improves Risk Assessment of Underlying Atrial Fibrillation in Cryptogenic Stroke

Background

The detection of underlying paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) can be challenging, and there is great interest in finding predictors of its hidden presence. The recent development of sophisticated software has enhanced the diagnostic and prognostic performance of the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG). Our aim was to assess the additional role of a computer-assisted ECG analysis in identifying predictors of AF in patients with CS.

Methods

Sixty-seven patients with ischemic stroke or high-risk transient ischemic attack of unknown etiology were prospectively studied. Their 12-lead digitized ECG was analyzed with dedicated software, quantifying 468 morphological variables. The main clinical, biochemical, and echocardiographic variables were also collected. At discharge, patients were monitored with a wearable Holter for 15 days, and the primary outcome was the detection of AF.

Results

The median age was 80 (interquartile range (IQR): 73 - 84) and AF was detected in 21 patients (31.3%). After preselecting significant ECG variables from the univariate analysis, a multivariate regression including other significant clinical, biochemical and echocardiographic predictors of AF was performed. Among the automatically analyzed ECG parameters, the amplitude of the R wave in V1 (V1_ramp) was significantly associated with the outcome. The best model to predict AF was composed of age, N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), left atrial reservoir strain (LASr) and V1_ramp. This model showed good discrimination capacity (corrected Somer's Dxy: 0.907, Brier's B: 0.079, area under the curve (AUC): 0.941) and performed better than the same model without the ECG variable (Somer's Dxy: 0.827, Brier's B: 0.119, AUC: 0.896).

Conclusions

The addition of computer-assisted ECG analysis can help stratify the risk of AF in the challenging clinical setting of CS.

Electrocardiogram prediction of atrial fibrillation risk after stroke: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most common clinical arrhythmias. This study aims to predict the risk of post-stroke AF through electrocardiographic changes in sinus rhythm.

METHODS

We searched the MEDLINE (PubMed) and EMBASE databases to identify relevant research articles published until August 2023. Prioritized items from systematic reviews and meta-analyses were screened, and data related to AF detection rate were extracted. A meta-analysis using a random-effects model was conducted for data synthesis and analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 32 studies involving electrocardiograms (ECG) were included, with a total analysis population of 330,284 individuals. Among them, 16,662 individuals (ECG abnormal group) developed AF, while 313,622 individuals (ECG normal group) did not. ECG patterns included terminal P-wave terminal force V1, interatrial block (IAB), advanced interatrial block, abnormal P-wave axis, pulse rate prolongation, and atrial premature complexes. Overall, 15,762 patients experienced AF during the study period (4.77%). In the ECG abnormal group, the proportion was 14.21% (2367/16,662), while in the control group (ECG normal group), the proportion was 4.27% (13,395/313,622). The pooled risk ratio for developing AF was 2.45 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.02-2.98, P < .001), with heterogeneity (I2) of 95%. The risk ratio values of alAB, P-wave terminal force V1, interatrial block, abnormal P-wave axis, pulse rate prolongation and atrial premature complexes were 4.12 (95% CI, 2.99-5.66), 1.47 (95% CI, 1.19-1.82), 2.54 (95% CI, 1.83-3.52), 1.70 (95% CI, 0.98-2.97), 2.65 (95% CI, 1.88-3.72), 3.79 (95% CI, 2.12-6.76), respectively.

CONCLUSION

There is a significant correlation between ECG patterns and the occurrence of AF. The alAB exhibited the highest level of predictability for the occurrence of AF. These indicators support their use as screening tools to identify high-risk individuals who may benefit from further examinations or empirical anticoagulation therapy following stroke.

ECG predictors of AF: A systematic review (predicting AF in ischaemic stroke-PrAFIS)

In 25% of patients presenting with embolic stroke, a cause is not determined. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a commonly identified mechanism of stroke in this population, particularly in older patients. Conventional investigations are used to detect AF, but can we predict AF in this population and generally? We performed a systematic review to identify potential predictors of AF on 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG).

METHOD

We conducted a search of EMBASE and Medline databases for prospective and retrospective cohorts, meta-analyses or case-control studies of ECG abnormalities in sinus rhythm predicting subsequent atrial fibrillation. We assessed quality of studies based on the Newcastle-Ottawa scale and data were extracted according to PRISMA guidelines.

RESULTS

We identified 44 studies based on our criteria. ECG patterns that predicted the risk of developing AF included interatrial block, P-wave terminal force lead V1, P-wave dispersion, abnormal P-wave-axis, abnormal P-wave amplitude, prolonged PR interval, left ventricular hypertrophy, QT prolongation, ST-T segment abnormalities and atrial premature beats. Furthermore, we identified that factors such as increased age, high CHADS-VASC, chronic renal disease further increase the positive-predictive value of some of these parameters. Several of these have been successfully incorporated into clinical scoring systems to predict AF.

CONCLUSION

There are several ECG abnormalities that can predict AF both independently, and with improved predictive value when combined with clinical risk factors, and if incorporated into clinical risk scores. Improved and validated predictive models could streamline selection of patients for cardiac monitoring and initiation of oral anticoagulants.

P-wave Indices as Predictors of Atrial Fibrillation: The Lion from a Claw

The P wave, representing the electrical fingerprint of atrial depolarization, contains information regarding spatial and temporal aspects of atrial electrical-and potentially structural-properties. However, technical and biological reasons, including-but not limited to-the low amplitude of the P wave and large interindividual variations in normal or pathologic atrial electrical activity, make gathering and utilizing this information for clinical purposes a rather cumbersome task. However, even crude ECG descriptors, such as P-wave dispersion, have been shown to be of predictive value for assessing the probability that a patient already has or will shortly present with AF. More sophisticated methods of analyzing the ECG signal, on a single- or multi- beat basis, along with novel approaches to data handling, namely machine learning, seem to be leading up to more accurate and robust ways to obtain clinically useful information from the humble P wave.

The Role of Electrocardiographic Markers for Predicting Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke: Data from the BIOSIGNAL Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

P-wave abnormalities in the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) have been associated with a higher risk of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) as well as atrial fibrillation (AF). This study aimed to assess pre-determined ECG criteria during sinus rhythm in unselected AIS patients and their value for predicting newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (NDAF) after hospital admission.

METHODS

P-wave alterations were measured on 12-lead ECG on admission in all consecutively enrolled patients without known AF between October 2014 and 2017. The outcome of interest was NDAF, identified by prolonged electrocardiographic monitoring within one year after the index AIS. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was applied to assess the magnitude and independence of the association between pre-selected ECG markers and NDAF. The discriminatory accuracy was evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and the incremental prognostic value was estimated with the net reclassification index.

RESULTS

NDAF was detected in 87 (10%) of 856 patients during a follow-up of 365 days. Out of the pre-selected ECG parameters, advanced interatrial block (aIAB) and PR interval in lead II were independently associated with NDAF in univariable regression analysis. Only aIAB remained a significant predictor in multivariable analysis. Adding aIAB to the best-performing multivariable regression model improved the discriminatory accuracy to predict NDAF from an AUC of 0.78 (95%-CI 0.77-0.80) to 0.81 (95%-CI 0.80-0.83, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

aIAB is independently and highly associated with NDAF in patients with AIS, has high inter-rater reliability, and therefore may be helpful to refine diagnostic work-up to search for AF in AIS.

Predicting risk of AF in ischaemic stroke using sinus rhythm ECG abnormalities: A meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To identify ECG changes in sinus rhythm that may be used to predict subsequent development of new AF.

METHOD

We identified prospective and retrospective cohort or case control studies evaluating ECG patterns from a 12-lead ECG in sinus rhythm taken in hospital or community predicting subsequent development of new AF. For each identified ECG predictor, we then identify absolute event rates and pooled risk ratios (RR) using an aggregate level random effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 609,496 patients from 22 studies. ECG patterns included P wave terminal force V1 (PTFV1), interatrial block (IAB) and advanced interatrial block (aIAB), abnormal P wave axis (aPWA), PR prolongation and atrial premature complexes (APCs). Pooled risk ratios reached significance for each of these; PTFV1 RR 1.48 (95% CI 1.04-2.10), IAB 2.54 (95% CI 1.64-3.93), aIAB 4.05 (95% CI 2.64-6.22), aPWA 1.89 (95% CI 1.25-2.85), PR prolongation 2.22 (95% CI 1.27-3.87) and APCs 3.71 (95% CI 2.23-6.16). Diabetes reduced the predictive value of PR prolongation.

CONCLUSION

APC and aIAB were most predictive of AF, while IAB, PR prolongation, PTFV1 and aPWA were also significantly associated with development of AF. These support their use in a screening tool to identify at risk cohorts who may benefit from further investigation, or following stroke, with empirical anticoagulation.

Cryptogenic stroke as a working diagnosis: the need for an early and comprehensive diagnostic work-up

In the Nordic Atrial Fibrillation and Stroke (NOR-FIB) study, the causes of ischemic stroke were identified in 43% of cryptogenic stroke patients monitored with implantable cardiac monitor (ICM), but one-third of these patients had non-cardioembolic causes. These results suggest the need for an early and comprehensive diagnostic work-up before inserting an ICM.

Electrocardiographic Predictors of Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common pathological arrhythmia, and its complications lead to significant morbidity and mortality. However, patients with AF can often go undetected, especially if they are asymptomatic or have a low burden of paroxysms. Identification of those at high risk of AF development may help refine screening and management strategies.

METHODS

PubMed and Embase databases were systematically searched for studies looking at electrocardiographic predictors of AF from inception to August 2021.

RESULTS

A total of 115 studies were reported which examined a combination of atrial and ventricular parameters that could be electrocardiographic predictors of AF. Atrial predictors include conduction parameters, such as the PR interval, p-wave index and dispersion, and partial interatrial or advanced interatrial block, or morphological parameters, such as p-wave axis, amplitude and terminal force. Ventricular predictors include abnormalities in QRS amplitude, morphology or duration, QT interval duration, r-wave progression and ST segment, i.e., t-wave abnormalities.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been significant interest in electrocardiographic prediction of AF, especially in populations at high risk of atrial AF, such as those with an embolic stroke of undetermined source. This review highlights the breadth of possible predictive parameters, and possible pathological bases for the predictive role of each parameter are proposed.

Probability of Cardioembolic vs. Atherothrombotic Pathogenesis of Cryptogenic Strokes in Older Patients

Some clinical, laboratory, ECG, and echocardiographic parameters could provide useful indications to assess the probability of cardioembolism or atherothrombosis in cryptogenic strokes. We retrospectively examined 290 patients with ischemic stroke aged ≥60 years, divided into 3 groups: strokes originating from large artery atherothrombosis (n = 92), cardioembolic strokes caused by paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (n = 88) and cryptogenic strokes (n = 110). In addition to echocardiographic and routine clinical-laboratory variables, neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio, red blood cell distribution width, mean platelet volume, P wave and PR interval duration and biphasic inferior P waves, both on admission and after 7 to 10 days, were also considered. By multiple logistic regression, cardioembolic strokes were compared with large artery atherothrombosis strokes, and beta coefficients were rounded to produce a scoring system. Late PR interval ≥188 ms, left atrium ≥4 cm, left ventricular end-diastolic volume <65 ml, and posterior circulation syndrome were associated with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (positive scores). In contrast, male gender, hypercholesterolemia, and initial platelet count ≥290 × 10⁹/L were associated with atherothrombosis of large arteries (negative scores). The algebraic sum of these scores produced values indicative of cardioembolism if >0 (positive predictive value 89.1%), or of atherothrombosis, if ≤0 (positive predictive value 72.5%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85. Among cryptogenic strokes, 41.5% had a score >0 (probable atrial fibrillation) and 58.5% had a score ≤0 (possible atherothrombosis). In conclusion, a scoring system based on electrocardiogram, laboratory, clinical and echocardiographic parameters can provide useful guidance for further investigations and secondary prevention in older patients with cryptogenic stroke.

Multiparametric identification of subclinical atrial fibrillation after an embolic stroke of undetermined source

BACKGROUND

Subclinical atrial fibrillation (SCAF) may represent a cause of embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) and its detection has important implications for secondary prevention with anticoagulation. Indications to implantable cardiac monitors (ICM) include SCAF detection. The aims of this study were to (1) evaluate the frequency of ICM-detected SCAF; (2) determine predictors of SCAF; and (3) identify patients who would benefit most from ICM implantation.

METHODS

Between February 2017 and November 2020, all consecutive patients referred for ICM implantation after a diagnosis of ESUS and without previous history of atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter were included in this study. SCAF was diagnosed if the ICM electrogram demonstrated an episode of irregularly irregular rhythm without distinct P waves lasting > 2 min.

RESULTS

We enrolled 109 patients (age 66, SD = 13 years; 36% females). During a median follow-up of 19.2 (IQR 11.0-27.5) months, SCAF episodes were detected in 36 (33%) patients. Only abnormal P wave terminal force in lead V1, left atrial end-systolic indexed volume > 34 ml/m², and BMI > 25 kg/m² were independently associated with an increased risk of SCAF (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.14-5.21, p = 0.021; HR 2.39, 95% CI 1.11-5.13, p = 0.026; and HR 2.64, 95% CI 1.06-6.49, p = 0.036 respectively). The ROC curve showed that the presence of all three parameters had the best accuracy (74%) to predict SCAF detection (sensitivity 39%, specificity 91%).

CONCLUSION

A multiparametric evaluation has the best accuracy to predict SCAF in ESUS patients and may help identifying those who would benefit most from ICM.

Latest incidence and electrocardiographic predictors of atrial fibrillation: a prospective study from China

BACKGROUND

China bears the biggest atrial fibrillation (AF) burden in the world. However, little is known about the incidence and predictors of AF. This study aimed to investigate the current incidence of AF and its electrocardiographic (ECG) predictors in general community individuals aged over 60 years in China.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study, recruiting subjects who were aged over 60 years and underwent annual health checkups from April to July 2015 in four community health centers in Songjiang District, Shanghai, China. The subjects were then followed up from 2015 to 2019 annually. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, medical history, and the resting 12-lead ECG were collected. Kaplan-Meier curve was used for showing the trends in AF incidence and calculating the predictors of AF. Associations of ECG abnormalities and AF incidence were examined using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

This study recruited 18,738 subjects, and 351 (1.87%) developed AF. The overall incidence rate of AF was 5.2/1000 person-years during an observation period of 67,704 person-years. Multivariable Cox regression analysis indicated age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-1.09; P < 0.001), male (HR, 1.30; 95% CI: 1.05-1.62; P = 0.018), a history of hypertension (HR, 1.55; 95% CI: 1.23-1.95; P < 0.001), a history of cardiac diseases (HR, 3.23; 95% CI: 2.34-4.45; P < 0.001), atrial premature complex (APC) (HR, 2.82; 95% CI: 2.17-3.68; P < 0.001), atrial flutter (HR, 18.68; 95% CI: 7.37-47.31; P < 0.001), junctional premature complex (JPC) (HR, 3.57; 95% CI: 1.59-8.02; P = 0.002), junctional rhythm (HR, 18.24; 95% CI: 5.83-57.07; P < 0.001), ventricular premature complex (VPC) (HR, 1.76; 95% CI: 1.13-2.75, P = 0.012), short PR interval (HR, 5.49; 95% CI: 1.36-22.19; P = 0.017), right atrial enlargement (HR, 6.22; 95% CI: 1.54-25.14; P = 0.010), and pacing rhythm (HR, 3.99; 95% CI: 1.57-10.14; P = 0.004) were independently associated with the incidence of AF.

CONCLUSIONS

The present incidence of AF was 5.2/1000 person-years in the studied population aged over 60 years in China. Among various ECG abnormalities, only APC, atrial flutter, JPC, junctional rhythm, short PR interval, VPC, right atrial enlargement, and pacing rhythm were independently associated with AF incidence.

The predictive value of abnormal P-wave axis for the detection of incident atrial fibrillation: A systematic review with meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

There is growing interest in the prediction of incident atrial fibrillation (AF). The 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) has been a particularly rich target for possible prediction strategies.

PURPOSE

The P-wave axis is an ECG parameter that reflects the dominant vector of atrial depolarisation and is usually 0° -75°. There is a large body of literature suggesting that AF reflects structural and conduction abnormalities of the atria, and thus the P-wave axis may represent a sensitive parameter to detect such changes.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis of published literature associating abnormal P-wave axis and the development of incident AF was performed. Electronic databases were systematically searched from inception to October 2021. A random-effects model with generic inverse variance weights was utilised to pool the most adjusted effect measure from each paper. A funnel plot was used to assess publication bias.

RESULTS

After excluding duplicate studies, 568 studies were screened. A total of eleven studies were identified that associated an abnormal P-wave axis with the subsequent detection of AF. The eight studies that considered abnormal P-wave axis as being <0° or >75° were pooled for meta-analysis. In the pooled studies a total of 78,222 patients were included with 5656 cases of incident atrial fibrillation identified. The meta-analysis of the studies suggested that an abnormal P-wave axis was associated with a pooled risk ratio of 2.12 (95% CI 1.49 to 3.01) for the detection of incident atrial fibrillation.

CONCLUSION

This comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis, indicates the positive association of abnormal P wave axis and future detection of AF. Utilisation of abnormal P-wave axis, alongside other parameters, may allow clinicians to better risk-stratify individuals at increased risk of AF, and thus identify those who may benefit most from prolonged cardiac monitoring or targeted anticoagulation.

Detection of hidden atrial fibrillation in primary care using a long-term band-based ECG registration system: The DESCUUBRE-FA study

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether the use of a band-based electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring system improves the diagnostic accuracy of traditional diagnostic methods for the detection of atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

Multicenter and observational study of primary care patients at risk of AF. To be included, patients had to be aged ≥70 years, with no known AF, and have at least 1 major criterion (obesity, hyperthyroidism, heart failure) or 2 minor criteria (hypertension, diabetes, female sex, ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack or systemic embolism, COPD, dyslipidemia, ischemic heart disease, peripheral artery disease). All patients were monitored using the Nuubo™ system for a single 2-week period.

RESULTS

A total of 600 patients were included (median age 77 years; 70% women; 84.3% hypertension, 27.2% diabetes, 9.2% prior stroke). The global rate of diagnosis of new AF in the overall population was 2.83%. All patients with AF were anticoagulated. In numerical terms, patients with AF (vs no AF) had a higher number of supraventricular extrasystoles and episodes of supraventricular tachycardia, as well as longer P wave duration; however, these differences did not reach statistical significance. Overall, participants were very satisfied with the device, and no relevant limitations in daily activities were observed during the 2-week study period.

CONCLUSIONS

In an elderly population at risk of AF, a band-based ECG monitoring approach applied for only 2 weeks detected approximately 3% of new cases of AF, leading to a change in antithrombotic therapy. Most participants considered the device easy to use and comfortable.

Prediction of occult atrial fibrillation in patients after cryptogenic stroke and transient ischaemic attack: PROACTIA

AIMS

Studies with implantable cardiac monitors (ICMs) show that one-third of patients with cryptogenic stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA) have episodes of subclinical atrial fibrillation (SCAF) and benefit switching from antiplatelet- to anticoagulant therapy. However, ICMs are costly and resource demanding. We aimed to build a score based on participant's baseline characteristics that could assess individual risk of SCAF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In a prospective study, 236 eligible patients with a final diagnosis of cryptogenic stroke/TIA had an ICM implantated during the index hospitalization. Pre-specified evaluated variables were: CHA2DS2-VASc, P-wave duration, P-wave morphology, premature atrial beats (PAC)/24 h, supraventricular tachycardia/24 h, left atrial end-systolic volume index (LAVI), Troponin-T, NT-proBNP, and D-dimer. SCAF was detected in 84 patients (36%). All pre-specified variables were significantly associated with SCAF detection in univariate analysis. P-wave duration, followed by PAC/24 h, NT-proBNP, and LAVI, had the largest ratio of SCAF prevalence between its upper and lower quartiles (3.3, vs. 3.2, vs. 3.1 vs. 2.8, respectively). However, in a multivariate analysis, only PAC/24t, P-wave duration, P-wave morphology, and LAVIs remained significant predictors and were included in the PROACTIA score. Subclinical atrial fibrillation prevalence was 75% in the highest vs. 10% in the lowest quartile of the PROACTIA score with a 10-fold higher number of patients with an atrial fibrillation burden >6 h in the highest vs. the lowest quartile.

CONCLUSION

The PROACTIA score can identify patients with cryptogenic stroke/TIA at risk of subsequent SCAF detection. The large difference in SCAF prevalence between groups may provide a basis for future tailored therapy.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT02725944.

Markers of Atrial Cardiopathy in Severe Embolic Strokes of Undetermined Source

Background and Purpose

The current definition of embolic strokes of undetermined source (ESUS) seems to be too broad, including strokes due to heterogeneous mechanisms, such as atrial cardiopathy and other occult cardiac conditions, aortic arch plaques, and non-stenosing atherosclerosis, that can be differently associated with clinical stroke severity at the time of presentation. The aim of our study was to assess the possible association between neurological deficit severity and presence of markers of atrial cardiopathy in ESUS.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of a cohort of 226 ESUS patients (105 M, 121 F), that were divided into two groups according to the severity of neurological deficit (99 mild strokes with NIHSS ≤ 5 and 127 severe strokes with NIHSS >5). The following indices of atrial cardiopathy were evaluated: P wave dispersion, P wave max, P wave min, P wave mean, P wave index, P wave axis, left atrial size.

Results

Patients with severe ESUS were significantly older (74 ± 12 vs. 67 ± 14 years, P < 0.001) and female sex was prevalent (67 vs. 36%, P > 0.001); they had higher values of P-wave-dispersion (51 ± 14 vs. 46 ± 13, P = 0.01), P-wave-max (131 ± 20 vs. 125 ± 15 ms, P = 0.01), P-wave-index (16 ± 5 vs. 15 ± 5 ms, P = 0.01), left atrial size (20 ± 6 vs. 18 ± 4 cm², P = 0.01), left atrial volume index (31 ± 14 vs. 27 ± 11 ml/m², P = 0.04), in comparison with mild ESUS. An abnormal P wave axis was detected more frequently in severe ESUS (21 vs. 9%, P = 0.01). Furthermore, multivariate logistic regression showed that age (OR = 1.21 for each 5-year increase, 95% CI 1.09–1.35), sex (OR = 3.24 for female sex, 95% CI 1.82–5.76) and PWD (OR = 1.32 for each 10-ms increase, 95% CI 1.07–1.64) were the best subset of associated variables for severe ESUS.

Conclusions

Our findings shed light on specific clinical characteristics of severe ESUS including the presence of atrial cardiopathy that could play a pathogenic role in this subgroup of patients. Searching for atrial fibrillation in these patients is especially important to perform the most appropriate therapy.

European Stroke Organisation (ESO) guideline on screening for subclinical atrial fibrillation after stroke or transient ischaemic attack of undetermined origin

We aimed to provide practical recommendations for the screening of subclinical atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) of undetermined origin. These guidelines are based on the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology. Five relevant Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome questions were defined by a multidisciplinary module working group (MWG).

Longer duration of cardiac rhythm monitoring increases the detection of subclinical AF, but the optimal monitoring length is yet to be defined. We advise longer monitoring to increase the rate of anticoagulation, but whether longer monitoring improves clinical outcomes needs to be addressed. AF detection does not differ from in- or out-patient ECG-monitoring with similar monitoring duration, so we consider it reasonable to initiate in-hospital monitoring as soon as possible and continue with outpatient monitoring for more than 48h. Although insertable loop recorders (ILR) increase AF detection based on their longer monitoring duration, comparison with non-implantable ECG devices for similar monitoring time is lacking. We suggest the use of implantable devices, if feasible, for AF detection instead of non- implantable devices to increase the detection of subclinical AF. There is weak evidence of a useful role for blood, ECG, and brain imaging biomarkers for the identification of patients at high risk of AF. In patients with patent foramen ovale, we found insufficient evidence from RCT, but prolonged cardiac monitoring in patients >55 years is advisable for subclinical AF detection. To conclude, in adult patients with ischaemic stroke or TIA of undetermined origin, we recommend longer duration of cardiac rhythm monitoring of more than 48h and if feasible with IRL to increase the detection of subclinical AF.

A critical assessment of the current pharmacotherapy for the treatment of embolic strokes of undetermined source

INTRODUCTION

"Embolic stroke of undetermined source" (ESUS) is a term coined to identify non-lacunar stroke whose mechanism is likely to be embolic, and the source remains unidentified. The best antithrombotic treatment for preventing stroke recurrence in this population has not been delineated.

AREAS COVERED

The authors summarize and critically appraise the currently available evidence about the antithrombotic treatment for preventing stroke recurrence in patients with ESUS. Randomized trials addressing this topic were identified through MEDLINE (accessed by PubMed, as of November 2021, week 4).

EXPERT OPINION

Recent randomized trials have failed to demonstrate a significant benefit of direct oral anticoagulants over aspirin in reducing the recurrence of cerebral infarctions in unselected cohorts of patients with ESUS. The heterogeneity and often overlap of embolic sources may be possible explanations for the overall absence of a benefit of oral anticoagulants in ESUS as a single homogeneous entity. The results of these trials and their subgroup analyses have provided important cues to understand the pathophysiology of ESUS. They have, furthermore, increased in the interest in researchers in identifying distinct etiological phenotypes within this stroke population. There is a good rationale for ongoing and future investigations in order to tailor antithrombotic treatment according to individual features of patients with ESUS.

Anterior Circulation Acute Ischemic Stroke in the Plateau of China: Risk Factors and Clinical Characteristics

Background and Purpose

Acute ischemic stroke has a high incidence in the plateau of China. It has unique characteristics compared to the plains, and the specific relationship with altitude has not yet been appreciated. This study aimed to investigate the specificity of the plateau's anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke in China.

Methods

To retrospectively collect clinical data of patients with first-episode acute ischemic stroke in the anterior circulation in Tianjin and Xining city. The differences in clinical presentation, laboratory, and imaging examinations were compared.

Results

Patients at high altitudes showed a significant trend toward lower age (61.0 ± 10.2 vs. 64.8 ± 8.1, P = 0.010) and had a history of dyslipidemia, higher levels of inflammatory markers, erythrocytosis, and alcohol abuse. The main manifestations were higher diastolic blood pressure (85.5 ± 14.0 mmHg vs. 76.8 ± 11.6 mmHg, P < 0.001), triglycerides [2.0 (1.8) mmol/L vs. 1.3 (0.9) mmol/L, P < 0.001], CRP [4.7 (4.4) mg/L vs. 2.1 (1.9) mg/L, P < 0.001], homocysteine levels [14.5 (11.7) μmol/L vs. 11.2 (5.2) μmol/L, P < 0.001]; larger infarct volume [3.5 (4.8) cm³ vs. 9.0 (6.9) cm³, P < 0.001] and worse prognosis. Patients at high altitudes had higher atherosclerotic indexes in cIMT and plaque than those in plains.

Conclusions

The natural habituation and genetic adaptation of people to the particular geo-climatic environment of the plateau have resulted in significant differences in disease characteristics. Patients with the anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke in the plateau show more unfavorable clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study provides a preliminary interpretation of the effects of altitude and suggests developing preventive and therapeutic protocol measures that are more appropriate for the plateau of China.

Echocardiographic Parameters to Predict Atrial Fibrillation in Clinical Routine-The EAHsy-AF Risk Score

Background

Echocardiographic parameters representing impaired left atrial (LA) function and remodeling are of high value to predict atrial fibrillation (AF). This study aimed to develop a prediction model for AF easily to apply in clinical routine containing echocardiographic parameters associated with LA remodeling and-function.

Methods and Results

This monocentric, semi-blinded, controlled analysis included 235 patients to derive a prediction model. This prediction model was tested in a validation cohort encompassing 290 cardiovascular inpatients. The derivation and validation cohort included 54 (23%) and 66 (23%) patients with AF, respectively. Transthoracic echocardiography, comprising parameters indicating left atrial remodeling [septal/lateral total atrial conduction time (s/l PA-TDI)] and left atrial volume indexed to a' (LAVI/a') was performed in each patient. Based on multivariable regressions analysis, four variables were enclosed into the EAHsy (Echocardiography, Age, Hypertension)-AF risk score for AF prediction: Hypertension, Age, LAVI/a' and septal PA-TDI. In the validation cohort discrimination was strong (C-statistic 0.987, 95%CI 0.974-0.991) with an adequately performed calibration. The EAHsy-AF risk score was associated with a more precise prediction of AF in comparison to commonly used AF-scores (CHADS₂-, ATLAS-, ARIC-, CHARGE-AF score).

Conclusion

The EAHsy-AF-Score containing age, hypertension and echocardiographic parameters of atrial dysfunction and remodeling precisely predicts the incidence of AF in a general population of patients with cardiovascular disease. The EAHsy-AF risk score may enable more selective rhythm monitoring in specific patients at high risk for AF.

Value of advanced interatrial block in the diagnosis of the ischemic stroke's aetiology: A cohort study

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Advanced interatrial block has been linked with atrial fibrillation (AF) (Bayes syndrome). On the other hand, the aetiology of the stroke remains unknown in approximately 20-25% of patients admitted due to ischaemic stroke. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether advanced interatrial block and CHADS2-VASC scale is linked to AF in patients admitted due to ischaemic stroke without previous AF history.

METHODS

A prospective analysis of consecutive in-hospital patients admitted with ischemic stroke between January/2018 and April/2019 in a stroke hospital was performed. Patients had to be in sinus rhythm at admission and without previous history of AF/atrial flutter. During follow up patients receive the usual care.

RESULTS

A total of 236 patients were included. The median follow-up was 540 days (407-695). 19 patients (8.1%) had advanced interatrial block at admission. Advanced interatrial block was associated with the diagnosis of AF during follow up (5 (26.3%) Vs 21 (9.7%) p=0.027). A CHADS2-VASC score>4 at admission was also associated with AF diagnosis during follow up (23(14.6%) vs 3(3.9%) p=0.009).

CONCLUSION

This study confirms the association of advanced interatrial block and CHADS2-VASC>4 at admission with the diagnosis of AF during follow up in patients with ischemic stroke. This association could have important implications in patients with ischemic stroke who present advanced interatrial block and without previous history of AF.

Biomarkers for Atrial Fibrillation Detection After Stroke: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

To identify clinical, ECG, and blood-based biomarkers associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) detection after ischaemic stroke or TIA that could help inform patient selection for cardiac monitoring.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis and searched electronic databases for cohort studies from January 15, 2000, to January 15, 2020. The outcome was AF ≥30 seconds within 1 year after ischemic stroke/TIA. We used random effects models to create summary estimates of risk. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool.

RESULTS

We identified 8,503 studies, selected 34 studies, and assessed 69 variables (42 clinical, 20 ECG, and 7 blood-based biomarkers). The studies included 11,569 participants and AF was detected in 1,478 (12.8%). Overall, risk of bias was moderate. Variables associated with increased likelihood of AF detection are older age (odds ratio [OR] 3.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.35-4.54), female sex (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.23-1.77), a history of heart failure (OR 2.56, 95% CI 1.87-3.49), hypertension (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.15-1.75) or ischemic heart disease (OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.34-2.42), higher modified Rankin Scale (OR 6.13, 95% CI 2.93-12.84) or National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (OR 2.50, 95% CI 1.64-3.81), no significant carotid/intracranial artery stenosis (OR 3.23, 95% CI 1.14-9.11), no tobacco use (OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.48-2.51), statin therapy (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.14-3.73), stroke as index diagnosis (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.17-2.18), systolic blood pressure (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.16-2.22), IV thrombolysis treatment (OR 2.40, 95% CI 1.83-3.16), atrioventricular block (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.08-4.17), left ventricular hypertrophy (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.03-4.74), premature atrial contraction (OR 3.90, 95% CI 1.74-8.74), maximum P-wave duration (OR 3.19, 95% CI 1.40-7.25), PR interval (OR 2.32, 95% CI 1.11-4.83), P-wave dispersion (OR 7.79, 95% CI 4.16-14.61), P-wave index (OR 3.44, 95% CI 1.87-6.32), QTc interval (OR 3.68, 95% CI 1.63-8.28), brain natriuretic peptide (OR 13.73, 95% CI 3.31-57.07), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.17-1.88) concentrations. Variables associated with reduced likelihood are minimum P-wave duration (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.29-0.98), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.57-0.93), and triglyceride (OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.41-0.64) concentrations.

DISCUSSION

We identified multimodal biomarkers that could help guide patient selection for cardiac monitoring after ischaemic stroke/TIA. Their prognostic utility should be prospectively assessed with AF detection and recurrent stroke as outcomes.

A meta-analysis of the association of atrial septal abnormalities and atrial vulnerability

BACKGROUND

The mechanism of cryptogenic stroke (CS) in patients with atrial septal abnormalities remains unclear, and the increased incidence of atrial vulnerability may be one of the reasons. We performed this meta-analysis to clarify the association between atrial septal abnormalities and atrial vulnerability, and to provide evidence-based basis for the prevention and mechanism of CS.

METHODS

We systematically searched for studies on the association between atrial septal abnormalities and atrial vulnerability, and pooled available data on types of atrial septal abnormalities, types of atrial vulnerability, and methods of atrial vulnerability detection. The primary endpoints were the occurrence of atrial arrhythmias or P wave abnormalities. Random-effects models were used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Twelve case-control studies were eligible. Compared with the control group, patients with atrial septal abnormalities had a higher risk of atrial vulnerability (OR: 1.93; 95% CI: 1.13-3.30, P = .02). Data based on stroke patients showed that the group with atrial septal abnormalities had a higher risk of atrial vulnerability than the control group (OR: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.13-3.53, P = .02). However, there was no significant difference in the incidence of atrial vulnerability between the 2 groups of nonstroke patients. Subgroup analysis showed that although atrial septal abnormality increased the risk of atrial vulnerability in the subgroup of atrial septal aneurysm (OR: 1.68; 95% CI: 0.47-5.95, P = .42), the subgroup of atrial fibrillation (AF)/atrial fluster (OR: 1.81; 95% CI: 0.94-3.46, P = .07) and the subgroup of subcutaneous recording system (OR: 1.33; 95% CI: 0.68-2.61, P = .41), the difference was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Atrial septal abnormalities can increase the risk of atrial vulnerability, and atrial arrhythmia caused by atrial septal abnormalities may be one of the mechanisms of CS.

Impact of P-wave indices in prediction of atrial fibrillation-Insight from loop recorder analysis

BACKGROUND

Several P-wave indices are associated with the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, previous studies have been limited in their ability to reliably diagnose episodes of AF. Implantable loop recorders allow long-term, continuous, and therefore more reliable detection of AF.

HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study is to identify and evaluate ECG parameters for predicting AF by analyzing patients with loop recorders.

METHODS

This study included 366 patients (mean age 62 ± 16 years, mean LVEF 61 ± 6%, 175 women) without AF who underwent loop recorder implantation between 2010-2020. Patients were followed up on a 3 monthly outpatient interval.

RESULTS

During a follow-up of 627 ± 409 days, 75 patients (20%) reached the primary study end point (first detection of AF). Independent predictors of AF were as follows: age ≥68 years (hazard risk [HR], 2.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.668-4.235; p < .001), P-wave amplitude in II <0.1 mV (HR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.298-3.441; p = .003), P-wave terminal force in V₁  ≤ -4000 µV × ms (HR, 5.3; 95% CI, 3.249-8.636; p < .001, and advanced interatrial block (HR, 5.01; 95% CI, 2.638-9.528; p < .001). Our risk stratification model based on these independent predictors separated patients into 4 groups with high (70%), intermediate high (41%), intermediate low (18%), and low (4%) rates of AF.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study indicated that P-wave indices are suitable for predicting AF episodes. Furthermore, it is possible to stratify patients into risk groups for AF using simple ECG parameters, which is particularly important for patients with cryptogenic stroke.

P Wave Dispersion and Silent Atrial Fibrillation in Cryptogenic Stroke: The Pathogenic Role of Inflammation

BACKGROUND

Cryptogenic stroke (CS) represents 25% of ischemic strokes. Especially after CS, the detection of atrial fibrillation (AF) is important because it provides clues to the mechanism of stroke. However, the relationship between AF and stroke appears more complex than a simple cause-effect mechanism, suggesting that the association between AF and stroke may be due to other systemic and atrial factors including systemic inflammation that may lead to atrial remodeling and subsequent atrial cardiopathy.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship among different electrocardiographic parameters, inflammatory markers and in-hospital AF occurrence after acute CS.

METHODS

222 patients with CS underwent 12-lead resting ECG at admission and 7-day in-hospital ECG monitoring. The following indices were evaluated: P-wave dispersion (PWD), P-wave index, P-wave axis, atrial size and high-sensitivity-C reactive protein (CRP).

RESULTS

AF was detected in 44 patients. AF-group had significantly higher PWD, P-wave index, PR interval, CRP and greater frequency of abnormal P-wave axis in comparison with no-AF group. There was a significant correlation between CRP and PWD (r=0.28). By using the mediation analysis, performed according to the "bootstrapping" method, we found that PWD is a significant mediator variable of the relationship between CRP and AF occurrence, accounting for 40% of the association.

CONCLUSIONS

In cryptogenic stroke, high PWD is partly due to systemic inflammation that increases AF risk possibly via atrial electric remodeling. These findings could also suggest inflammation as a possible therapeutic target in order to prevent atrial electrical alterations and finally AF occurrence in CS.

Association of P-Wave Axis With Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Diabetes Mellitus (from the ACCORD Trial)

Abnormal P-wave axis may reflect preclinical atrial dysfunction and has been associated with an increased risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population. Patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) have a higher prevalence of AF, but the association of abnormal P-wave axis and the risk of incident AF in those with diabetes has not been previously explored. For this analysis, we included 8,965 eligible participants from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial. P-wave axis was automatically measured on study electrocardiogram and visually confirmed, with the normal range being between 0° and 75°. At baseline, 8% of the study population had an abnormal P-wave axis. During 43,856 person-years of follow-up, there were 145 cases of incident AF. Using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, participants with abnormal P-wave axis had an increased risk of incident AF (hazard ratio 2.65, 95% confidence interval 1.76 to 3.99, p < 0.0001). Findings were similar in prespecified subgroups, without evidence of effect modification. Both left- and right-axis deviation of the P-wave were associated with incident AF. Our results suggest that abnormal P-wave axis is associated with incident AF in those with DM and that this relation is conserved in prespecified subgroups. There may be utility in considering P-wave axis values from routine ECGs in these patients.

Novel electrocardiography parameter for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation in acute ischaemic stroke patients: P wave peak time

Introduction

In this study, we aimed to investigate the usefulness of P wave peak time (PWPT), a novel ECG parameter, in patients who were diagnosed with acute ischaemic stroke (IS) and had paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) on Holter monitoring.

Materials and methods

In this retrospective cohort study, we included 90 consecutive patients with acute IS who were admitted to our hospital between January 2017 and July 2019. PWPT was described as the time from the beginning of the P wave to its peak, and it was measured from leads DII and VI. The PAF diagnosis was confirmed if it was detected on the ECG during palpitation or in rhythm during the Holter recordings.

Results

In this study, 34 (37.7%) patients with acute IS were diagnosed with PAF. In multivariate analyses, the independent predictors of PAF were age, PWPT in lead VI and PWPT in lead DII (OR: 1.34, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.56; p<0.001). A receiver operating curve analysis demonstrated that area under the curve values for PWPT in lead DII for PAF were 0.88 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.95, p<0.001). The cut-off value for PWPT in lead DII in predicting PAF was 68.5 ms with a sensitivity of 82.4% and a specificity of 75.0%.

Conclusion

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to demonstrate a significant relationship between PWPT in lead DII and PAF among patients with acute IS.

Silent atrial fibrillation: clinical management and perspectives

Silent atrial fibrillation (AF) is an asymptomatic atrial arrhythmia that can be diagnosed by chance during a systematic electrocardiogram, an external Holter, or from implanted cardiac devices. There is a significant body of the literature around silent AF, yet it remains largely underdiagnosed in everyday clinical practice. Meanwhile, new diagnostic tools have significantly improved the detection of silent AF, creating a potential for mass screening via new technologies and the promise of a major step forward in e-health progress. However, it is not yet known whether silent AF is associated with the same thromboembolic risk as symptomatic AF, and whether these asymptomatic and often short-lasting episodes therefore require anticoagulation therapy and rhythm management.

Usefulness of the ACTEL Score to Predict Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Cryptogenic Stroke

INTRODUCTION

To assess the probability of undetected atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with ischemic stroke, we previously compared patients who were first diagnosed with AF with patients with large or small artery disease and obtained the MrWALLETS 8-item scoring system. In the present study, we utilized cryptogenic strokes (CS) as the control group, as AF is normally sought among CS patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively examined 191 ischemic stroke patients (72.5 ± 12.6 years), 68 with first diagnosed AF and 123 with CS, who had undergone 2 brain CT scans, echocardiography, carotid/vertebral ultrasound, continuous electrocardiogram monitoring and anamnestic/laboratory search for cardiovascular risk factors.

RESULTS

In logistic regression, 5 variables were independently associated with AF, forming the "ACTEL" score: Age ≥75 years (OR 2.42, 95% CI 1.18-4.96, p = 0.02; +1 point); hyperCholesterolemia (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.18-0.78, p = 0.009; -1 point); Tricuspid regurgitation ≥ mild-to-moderate (OR 4.99, 95% CI 1.63-15.27, p = 0.005; +1 point); left ventricular End-diastolic volume <65 mL (OR 7.43, 95% CI 2.44-22.6, p = 0.0004; +1 point); Left atrium ≥4 cm (OR 4.57, 95% CI 1.97-10.62, p = 0.0004; +1 point). The algebraic sum of these points may range from -1 to +4. For AF identification, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.80 (95% CI 0.73-0.87). With a cutoff of ≥2, positive predictive value was 80.8%, specificity 92.7% and sensitivity 55.9%.

CONCLUSIONS

The ACTEL score, a simplified and improved version of the MrWALLETS score, allows the identification of patients with first diagnosed AF, in the context of CSs, with a high positive predictive value.