A simple matrix to predict treatment success and long-term survival among patients undergoing pancreatectomy

Improved Overall Survival of Patients with Pancreatic Cancer through Multiagent Chemotherapy and Increased Rates of Surgical Resection

BACKGROUND

Seminal trials have demonstrated improved survival in pancreatic adenocarcinoma with novel multiagent chemotherapy regimens. To understand the clinical ramifications of this paradigm shift, we reviewed our institutional experience.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study utilized a prospective database at a single institution to study all patients diagnosed with and treated for pancreatic adenocarcinoma between 2000 and 2020.

RESULTS

1,572 patients were included of which 36% were diagnosed before (Era 1) and 64% after (Era 2) 2011. Survival improved in Era 2 (Median survival 10 vs 8 months, HR .79; P < .001). The survival advantage for Era 2 was primarily seen in patients with high-risk disease (12 vs10 months, HR .71; P < .001). A similar trend was noted for patients undergoing surgical resection (26 vs 21 months, HR .80; P = .081) and with imminently resectable tumors (19 vs 15 months, HR .88; P = .4); however, this was not statistically significant. There was no survival advantage for patients with stage IV disease (4 vs 4 months). Patients in Era 2 were more likely to undergo surgery (OR 2.78; CI 2.00-3.92, P < .001). This increase was driven primarily by increased surgical resection for those with high-risk disease (42 vs 20%, OR 3.74; P < .001).

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS

This single institutional study showed improved survival after the shift to novel chemotherapy regimens. This was driven by improved survival for patients with high-risk disease and may be due to more effective eradication of microscopic metastatic disease with adjuvant chemotherapy and increased resection rates.

Upfront resection versus neoadjuvant therapy for T1/T2 pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

The role of neoadjuvant therapy remains controversial for resectable pancreatic neoplasms. We evaluated treatment outcomes for T1/T2 tumors.

METHODS

Retrospective study of patients with T1/T2 (Stage I-II) pancreatic cancer within the NCDB. Treatment-sequence variables were used for classification: "surgery + chemotherapy" (S+C), "chemotherapy + surgery" (C+S), "surgery only" (SO), and "chemotherapy only" (CO).

RESULTS

13 412 patients were included; the majority had T2 tumors. 8 490 received upfront surgery; 4 922 preoperative chemotherapy. In the surgery branch, 5 684 received surgery and chemotherapy (S+C); 2 806 did not receive chemotherapy (SO). Of those intended to receive preoperative chemotherapy, 3 804 received only chemotherapy (CO); 1 118 proceeded to surgery (C+S). Median survival for S+C and C+S groups was similar (25.9 vs 26.2) [HR 0.92, p= 0.41]. Compared to the CO group, the SO group had improved median survival (13.5 vs. 10.8) [HR 0.63, p<0.001]. Branched analyses demonstrated improved median and 5-year (20.8% vs 12.7%) survival for patients receiving upfront resection [HR 0.77, p<0.001].

CONCLUSION

Patients with T1/T2 pancreatic cancer have similar survival irrespective of the timing of chemotherapy and surgery, if they receive both. Upfront resection ensures surgery is delivered, increasing the possibility of long-term survival.

Development and validation of a novel nomogram for predicting the prognosis of patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma

The survival prediction for patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma by using the Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) staging system remains limited. A nomogram is a efficient tool that can be used to predict the outcome of patients with various types of malignancy. The present study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma. A total of 368 patients (258 in the training set and 110 in the validation set) who underwent pancreatic adenocarcinoma resection at the China National Cancer Center between January 2008 and October 2018 were included in the present study. The nomogram was established according to the results from Cox multivariate analysis, which was validated by discrimination and calibration. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was determined to assess the accuracy of survival predictions. The results from multivariate analysis in the training set demonstrated that blood transfusion, T-stage, N-stage, tumor grade, capsule invasion, carbohydrate antigen 199, neutrophil percentage and adjuvant therapy were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS; all P<0.05). Subsequently, a nomogram predicting the 1-year, 3-year and 5-year OS rates, with favorable calibration, was established based on the independent prognostic factors. The concordance indices of the nomogram were higher compared with the TNM staging system in both training and validation sets. Furthermore, a clear risk stratification system based on the nomogram was used to classify patients into the three following groups: Low-risk group (≤168), moderate-risk group (168–255) and high-risk group (>255). The risk stratification system demonstrated an improved ability in predicting the 1-year, 3-year and 5-year OS rates compared with the TNM system (AUC, 0.758, 0.709 and 0.672 vs. AUC, 0.614, 0.604 and 0.568; all P<0.05). The present study developed and validated a nomogram for patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma by including additional independent prognostic factors, including tumor marker, immune index, surgical information, pathological data and adjuvant therapy. Taken together, the results from the present study indicated an improved performance of the nomogram in predicting the prognosis of patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma compared with the TNM staging system.