MPC Model Individualization in Free-Living Conditions: A Proof-of-Concept Case Study

Ketone-Based Alert System for Insulin Pump Failures

BACKGROUND

An increasing number of individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) manage glycemia with insulin pumps containing short-acting insulin. If insulin delivery is interrupted for even a few hours due to pump or infusion site malfunction, the resulting insulin deficiency can rapidly initiate ketogenesis and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA).

METHODS

To detect an event of accidental cessation of insulin delivery, we propose the design of ketone-based alert system (K-AS). This system relies on an extended Kalman filter based on plasma 3-beta-hydroxybutyrate (BOHB) measurements to estimate the disturbance acting on the insulin infusion/injection input. The alert system is based on a novel physiological model capable of simulating the ketone body turnover in response to a change in plasma insulin levels. Simulated plasma BOHB levels were compared with plasma BOHB levels available in the literature. We evaluated the performance of the K-AS on 10 in silico subjects using the S2014 UVA/Padova simulator for two different scenarios.

RESULTS

The K-AS achieves an average detection time of 84 and 55.5 minutes in fasting and postprandial conditions, respectively, which compares favorably and improves against a detection time of 193 and 120 minutes, respectively, based on the current guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

The K-AS leverages the rapid rate of increase of plasma BOHB to achieve short detection time in order to prevent BOHB levels from rising to dangerous levels, without any false-positive alarms. Moreover, the proposed novel insulin-BOHB model will allow us to understand the efficacy of treatment without compromising patient safety.

Hypoglycemia Prevention via Personalized Glucose-Insulin Models Identified in Free-Living Conditions

BACKGROUND

The objective of this research is to show the effectiveness of individualized hypoglycemia predictive alerts (IHPAs) based on patient-tailored glucose-insulin models (PTMs) for different subjects. Interpatient variability calls for PTMs that have been identified from data collected in free-living conditions during a one-month trial.

METHODS

A new impulse-response (IR) identification technique has been applied to free-living data in order to identify PTMs that are able to predict the future glucose trends and prevent hypoglycemia events. Impulse response has been applied to seven patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) of the University of Amsterdam Medical Centre. Individualized hypoglycemia predictive alert has been designed for each patient thanks to the good prediction capabilities of PTMs.

RESULTS

The PTMs performance is evaluated in terms of index of fitting (FIT), coefficient of determination, and Pearson's correlation coefficient with a population FIT of 63.74%. The IHPAs are evaluated on seven patients with T1D with the aim of predicting in advance (between 45 and 10 minutes) the unavoidable hypoglycemia events; these systems show better performance in terms of sensitivity, precision, and accuracy with respect to previously published results.

CONCLUSION

The proposed work shows the successful results obtained applying the IR to an entire set of patients, participants of a one-month trial. Individualized hypoglycemia predictive alerts are evaluated in terms of hypoglycemia prevention: the use of a PTM allows to detect 84.67% of the hypoglycemia events occurred during a one-month trial on average with less than 0.4% of false alarms. The promising prediction capabilities of PTMs can be a key ingredient for new generations of individualized model predictive control for artificial pancreas.