Prognostic impact of new-onset atrial fibrillation associated with worsening heart failure in aging patients with severely decompensated acute heart failure

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting atrial fibrillation in patients with acute heart failure admitted to the ICU: a retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Acute heart failure is a serious condition. Atrial fibrillation is the most frequent arrhythmia in patients with acute heart failure. The occurrence of atrial fibrillation in heart failure patients worsens their prognosis and leads to a substantial increase in treatment costs. There is no tool that can effectively predict the onset of atrial fibrillation in patients with acute heart failure in the ICU currently.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the MIMIC-IV database of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) for acute heart failure and who were initially sinus rhythm. Data on demographics, comorbidities, laboratory findings, vital signs, and treatment were extracted. The cohort was divided into a training set and a validation set. Variables selected by LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression in the training set were used to develop a model for predicting the occurrence of atrial fibrillation in acute heart failure in the ICU. A nomogram was drawn and an online calculator was developed. The discrimination and calibration of the model was evaluated. The performance of the model was tested using the validation set.

RESULTS

This study included 2342 patients with acute heart failure, 646 of whom developed atrial fibrillation during their ICU stay. Using LASSO and multiple logistic regression, we selected six significant variables: age, prothrombin time, heart rate, use of vasoactive drugs within 24 h, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, and Acute Physiology Score (APS) III. The C-index of the model was 0.700 (95% CI 0.672-0.727) and 0.682 (95% CI 0.639-0.725) in the training and validation sets, respectively. The calibration curves also performed well in both sets.

CONCLUSION

We developed a simple and effective model for predicting atrial fibrillation in patients with acute heart failure in the ICU.

Delays in Door-to-Diuretic Time and 1-Year Mortality Among Patients With Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Achieving prompt euvolemic state in heart failure (HF) is associated with reduced mortality. Time-sensitive metrics such as door-to-diuretic time , or the time between presentation and administration of intravenous diuretics, may be an important facilitator of achieving a faster euvolemic state and reducing mortality.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate whether reduced door-to-diuretic time was associated with lower odds of death among hospitalized patients with HF.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review of patients with HF admitted to a medical center was performed between 2020 and 2021. Inclusion criteria were an International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision code for HF with positive Framingham Criteria and the use of intravenous bolus furosemide. Exclusion criteria included ventricular assist devices, dialysis, and ultrafiltration therapy. Data collected from the medical records included demographics, echocardiography, staff notes, and medications. The end point was 1-year all-cause mortality. Descriptive statistics, t tests or median test, and multivariate logistic regression were used to describe the sample, evaluate group differences, and determine odds of mortality, respectively.

RESULTS

Among 160 charts from patients with HF (age, 70 ± 14.4 years; 52%, n = 83, male; 53%, n = 85, ischemic cardiomyopathy; 83%, n = 134, New York Heart Association classes III-IV), 30% (n = 48) died within 1 year. The median diuretic dose was 40 mg (interquartile range, 20 mg), with a median time of administration of 247 minutes (4.12 hours) (interquartile range, 294 minutes to 4.9 hours). After covariate adjustment, prolonged door-to-diuretic time more than doubled (2.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-4.8; P = .04) the odds of 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

On the basis of this sample of charts from older highly symptomatic patients with HF, delayed door-to-diuretic time was associated with significantly greater odds of 1-year all-cause mortality.

Prognostic Impact and Predictors of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Heart Failure

Background: The prognostic impact and predictors of NOAF in HF patients are not fully elucidated. This study aims to determine whether new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) affects patient outcome and investigate predictors of atrial fibrillation (AF) in acute heart failure (HF) patients using real-world data. Methods: The factors associated with NOAF in 2894 patients with sinus rhythm (SR) enrolled in the Korean Acute Heart Failure (KorAHF) registry were investigated. Survival was analyzed using AF as a time-dependent covariate. Relevant predictors of NOAF were analyzed using multivariate proportional hazards models. Results: Over 27.4 months, 187 patients developed AF. The median overall survival time was over 48 and 9.9 months for the SR and NOAF groups, respectively. Cox regression analysis with NOAF as a time-dependent covariate showed a higher risk of death among patients with NOAF. Multivariate Cox modeling showed that age, worsening HF, valvular heart disease (VHD), loop diuretics, lower heart rate, larger left atrium (LA) diameter, and elevated creatinine levels were independently associated with NOAF. Risk score indicated the number of independent predictors. The incidence of NOAF was 2.9%, 9.4%, and 21.8% in the low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively (p < 0.001). Conditional inference tree analysis identified worsening HF, heart rate, age, LA diameter, and VHD as discriminators. Conclusions: NOAF was associated with decreased survival in acute HF patients with SR. Age, worsening HF, VHD, loop diuretics, lower heart rate, larger LA diameter, and elevated creatinine could independently predict NOAF. This may be useful to risk-stratify HF patients at risk for AF.

Frequency of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients Presenting With Decompensated Heart Failure

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common concern in patients with heart disease, especially those with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). We conducted a cross-sectional study to determine the frequency of AF and associated risk factors among patients with ADHF at a tertiary care hospital in Peshawar, Pakistan.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional analytical study of hospitalized patients with ADHF treated in a tertiary care hospital in Peshawar, Pakistan, from June 5 to October 30, 2021. The study's primary outcome was the proportion of patients with ADHF who had AF, and our secondary outcome was examining the risk factors for AF. The College of Physicians and Surgeons Pakistan provided ethical approval of the study design. Data were analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows version 24.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA). We applied the chi-square test to compare the proportion of AF concerning risk factors (i.e., comorbidities).

Results

One hundred ninety-four patients with ADHF were included in the study; 54.6% were male and 45.4% female. Most (56.7%) were older than 60, and 38.1% were aged 40-60. The prevalence of AF was 38.1%. Diabetes, hypertension, previous stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were the most common comorbidities. All patients with ADHF with AF also had MI and hypertension. Patients of known coronary artery disease (CAD) but without MI, previous percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), or coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery were less associated with AF than other comorbidities.

Conclusions

We conducted this study to determine the incidence of AF among patients with ADHF. AF occurs in a significant amount of patients with ADHF, and the risk factors associated with AF in these patients include hypertension, history of MI, diabetes, and COPD. Healthcare professionals should screen patients with ADHF for AF, especially those with common risk factors.

Prognostic value of the chest X-ray in patients hospitalised for heart failure

Background

Patients admitted to hospital with heart failure will have had a chest X-ray (CXR), but little is known about their prognostic significance. We aimed to report the prevalence and prognostic value of the initial chest radiograph findings in patients admitted to hospital with heart failure (acute heart failure, AHF).

Methods

The erect CXRs of all patients admitted with AHF between October 2012 and November 2016 were reviewed for pulmonary venous congestion, Kerley B lines, pleural effusions and alveolar oedema. Film projection (whether anterior–posterior [AP] or posterior–anterior [PA]) and cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) were also recorded. Trial registration: ISRCTN96643197

Results

Of 1145 patients enrolled, 975 [median (interquartile range) age 77 (68–83) years, 61% with moderate, or worse, left ventricular systolic dysfunction, and median NT-proBNP 5047 (2337–10,945) ng/l] had an adequate initial radiograph, of which 691 (71%) were AP. The median CTR was 0.57 (IQR 0.53–0.61) in PA films and 0.60 (0.55–0.64) in AP films. Pulmonary venous congestion was present in 756 (78%) of films, Kerley B lines in 688 (71%), pleural effusions in 649 (67%) and alveolar oedema in 622 (64%).

A CXR score was constructed using the above features. Increasing score was associated with increasing age, urea, NT-proBNP, and decreasing systolic blood pressure, haemoglobin and albumin; and with all-cause mortality on multivariable analysis (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% confidence intervals 1.07–1.13, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Radiographic evidence of congestion on a CXR is very common in patients with AHF and is associated with other clinical measures of worse prognosis.

Graphic abstract