U-shaped association between abnormal serum uric acid levels and COVID-19 severity: reports from the Japan COVID-19 Task Force

Predicting coronavirus disease 2019 severity using explainable artificial intelligence techniques

Predictive models for determining coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity have been established; however, the complexity of the interactions among factors limits the use of conventional statistical methods. This study aimed to establish a simple and accurate predictive model for COVID-19 severity using an explainable machine learning approach. A total of 3,301 patients ≥ 18 years diagnosed with COVID-19 between February 2020 and October 2022 were included. The discovery cohort comprised patients whose disease onset fell before October 1, 2020 (N = 1,023), and the validation cohort comprised the remaining patients (N = 2,278). Pointwise linear and logistic regression models were used to extract 41 features. Reinforcement learning was used to generate a simple model with high predictive accuracy. The primary evaluation was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The predictive model achieved an AUC of ≥ 0.905 using four features: serum albumin levels, lactate dehydrogenase levels, age, and neutrophil count. The highest AUC value was 0.906 (sensitivity, 0.842; specificity, 0.811) in the discovery cohort and 0.861 (sensitivity, 0.804; specificity, 0.675) in the validation cohort. Simple and well-structured predictive models were established, which may aid in patient management and the selection of therapeutic interventions.

Downregulation of type I interferon signalling pathway by urate in primary human PBMCs

Type I interferons (IFN1s) mediate innate responses to microbial stimuli and regulate interleukin (IL)-1 and IL-1 receptor antagonist (Ra) production in human cells. This study explores interferon-stimulated gene (ISG) alterations in the transcriptome of patients with gout and stimulated human primary cells in vitro in relation to serum urate concentrations. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and monocytes of patients with gout were primed in vitro with soluble urate, followed by lipopolysaccharide (LPS) stimulation. Separately, PBMCs were stimulated with various toll-like receptor (TLR) ligands. RNA sequencing and IL-1Ra cytokine measurement were performed. STAT1 phosphorylation was assessed in urate-treated monocytes. Cytokine responses to IFN-β were evaluated in PBMCs cultured with or without urate and restimulated with LPS and monosodium urate (MSU) crystals. Transcriptomics revealed suppressed IFN-related signalling pathways in urate-exposed PBMCs or monocytes which was supported by diminishment of phosphorylated STAT1. The stimulation of PBMCs with IFN-β did not modify the urate-induced inflammation. Interestingly, in vivo, serum urate concentrations were inversely correlated to in vitro ISG expression upon stimulations with TLR ligands. These findings support a deficient IFN1 signalling in the presence of elevated serum urate concentrations, which could translate to increased susceptibility to infections.

CT-derived vertebral bone mineral density is a useful biomarker to predict COVID-19 outcome

The low vertebral bone computed tomography (CT) Hounsfield unit values measured on CT scans reflect low bone mineral density (BMD) and are known as diagnostic indicators for osteoporosis. The potential prognostic significance of low BMD defined by vertebral bone CT values for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains unclear. This study aimed to assess the impact of BMD on the clinical outcome in Japanese patients with COVID-19 and evaluate the association between BMD and critical outcomes, such as high-flow nasal cannula, non-invasive and invasive positive pressure ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or death. We examined the effects of COVID-19 severity on the change of BMD over time. This multicenter retrospective cohort study enrolled 1132 inpatients with COVID-19 from the Japan COVID-19 Task Force database between February 2020 and September 2022. The bone CT values of the 4th, 7th, and 10th thoracic vertebrae were measured from chest CT images. The average of these values was defined as BMD. Furthermore, a comparative analysis was conducted between the BMD on admission and its value 3 months later. The low BMD group had a higher proportion of critical outcomes than did the high BMD group. In a subanalysis stratifying patients by epidemic wave according to onset time, critical outcomes were higher in the low BMD group in the 1st-4th waves. Multivariable logistic analysis of previously reported factors associated with COVID-19 severity revealed that low BMD, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes were independently associated with critical outcomes. At 3 months post-infection, patients with oxygen demand during hospitalization showed markedly decreased BMD than did those on admission. Low BMD in patients with COVID-19 may help predict severe disease after the disease onset. BMD may decrease over time in patients with severe COVID-19, and the impact on sequelae symptoms should be investigated in the future.

Prognostic significance of chronic kidney disease and impaired renal function in Japanese patients with COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Renal impairment is a predictor of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) severity. No studies have compared COVID-19 outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and patients with impaired renal function without a prior diagnosis of CKD. This study aimed to identify the impact of pre-existing impaired renal function without CKD on COVID-19 outcomes.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 3,637 patients with COVID-19 classified into three groups by CKD history and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) on referral: Group 1 (n = 2,460), normal renal function without a CKD history; Group 2 (n = 905), impaired renal function without a CKD history; and Group 3 (n = 272), history of CKD. We compared the clinical characteristics of these groups and assessed the effect of CKD and impaired renal function on critical outcomes (requirement for respiratory support with high-flow oxygen devices, invasive mechanical ventilation, or extracorporeal membrane oxygen, and death during hospitalization) using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

The prevalence of comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease) and incidence of inflammatory responses (white blood counts, and C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and D-dimer levels) and complications (bacterial infection and heart failure) were higher in Groups 2 and 3 than that in Group 1. The incidence of critical outcomes was 10.8%, 17.7%, and 26.8% in Groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The mortality rate and the rate of requiring IMV support was lowest in Group 1 and highest in Group 3. Compared with Group 1, the risk of critical outcomes was higher in Group 2 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-1.70, P = 0.030) and Group 3 (aOR: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.36-2.78, P < 0.001). Additionally, the eGFR was significantly associated with critical outcomes in Groups 2 (odds ratio [OR]: 2.89, 95% CI: 1.64-4.98, P < 0.001) and 3 (OR: 1.87, 95% CI: 1.08-3.23, P = 0.025) only.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinicians should consider pre-existing CKD and impaired renal function at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis for the management of COVID-19.

Lung volume measurement using chest CT in COVID-19 patients: a cohort study in Japan

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the utility of CT quantification of lung volume for predicting critical outcomes in COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 1200 hospitalised patients with COVID-19 from 4 hospitals. Lung fields were extracted using artificial intelligence-based segmentation, and the percentage of the predicted (%pred) total lung volume (TLC (%pred)) was calculated. The incidence of critical outcomes and posthospitalisation complications was compared between patients with low and high CT lung volumes classified based on the median percentage of predicted TLCct (n=600 for each). Prognostic factors for residual lung volume loss were investigated in 208 patients with COVID-19 via a follow-up CT after 3 months.

RESULTS

The incidence of critical outcomes was higher in the low TLCct (%pred) group than in the high TLCct (%pred) group (14.2% vs 3.3%, p<0.0001). Multivariable analysis of previously reported factors (age, sex, body mass index and comorbidities) demonstrated that CT-derived lung volume was significantly associated with critical outcomes. The low TLCct (%pred) group exhibited a higher incidence of bacterial infection, heart failure, thromboembolism, liver dysfunction and renal dysfunction than the high TLCct (%pred) group. TLCct (%pred) at 3 months was similarly divided into two groups at the median (71.8%). Among patients with follow-up CT scans, lung volumes showed a recovery trend from the time of admission to 3 months but remained lower in critical cases at 3 months.

CONCLUSION

Lower CT lung volume was associated with critical outcomes, posthospitalisation complications and slower improvement of clinical conditions in COVID-19 patients.

Exploring the Relationship of SARS-CoV-2 and Uric Acid Levels With a Focus on Gout Patients: A Scoping Review

Rheumatic diseases are a group of conditions including arthritis and various other conditions that can lead to chronic inflammation within the musculoskeletal system, which can have negative effects on soft tissues, bones, muscles, joints, and connective tissue. One form of arthritis is gout, which is an inflammatory condition in which urate acid crystals build up in joints. Gout is associated with joint swelling, pain, redness, and joint mobility issues. Early diagnosis and treatment are essential to prevent joint degradation and other adverse complications. The condition has been shown to increase the incidence of diseases outside the musculoskeletal system, including the renal and cardiovascular systems. Comorbid conditions associated with gout include but are not limited to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, hyperlipidemia, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, and heart failure. This systematic review aims to provide insight into the relationship between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, uric acid levels, and gout.

Prognostic significance of hypertension history and blood pressure on admission in Japanese patients with coronavirus disease 2019: integrative analysis from the Japan COVID-19 Task Force

The effect of preexisting hypertension on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prognosis remains controversial. Additionally, no studies have compared the association between blood pressure (BP) indices on admission and COVID-19 outcomes using preexisting hypertension status. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between preexisting hypertension and COVID-19 outcomes in Japanese patients with COVID-19 and assess the impact of BP indices on admission on clinical outcomes in patients with and without preexisting hypertension. Preexisting hypertension presence was confirmed based on the patient's clinical history. Critical outcomes were defined as high-flow oxygen use, non-invasive and invasive positive-pressure ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or death during hospitalization. Preexisting hypertension was observed in 64.6% of the patients. Multivariable logistic regression analysis of severe COVID-19 risk factors indicated that preexisting hypertension was independently associated with critical outcomes [adjusted odds ratio (OR): 1.35; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05-1.73]. Low or high BP and high pulse pressure on admission were associated with critical outcomes in patients without preexisting hypertension [OR for systolic BP < 100 mmHg: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.21-3.75; OR for high BP stage 2 (160-179 systolic and/or 100-109 mmHg diastolic BP): 2.13, 95% CI: 1.27-3.58; OR for pulse pressure ≥60 mmHg: 1.68, 95% CI: 1.14-2.48]. Preexisting hypertension is a risk factor for critical outcomes in Japanese patients with COVID-19. BP indices are useful biomarkers for predicting COVID-19 outcomes, particularly in patients without preexisting hypertension. Thus, hypertension history, systolic BP, and pulse pressure should be assessed to predict severe COVID-19 outcomes.

Dysuricemia

Gout results from elevated serum urate (SU) levels, or hyperuricemia, and is a globally widespread and increasingly burdensome disease. Recent studies have illuminated the pathophysiology of gout/hyperuricemia and its epidemiology, diagnosis, treatment, and complications. The genetic involvement of urate transporters and enzymes is also proven. URAT1, a molecular therapeutic target for gout/hyperuricemia, was initially derived from research into hereditary renal hypouricemia (RHUC). RHUC is often accompanied by complications such as exercise-induced acute kidney injury, which indicates the key physiological role of uric acid. Several studies have also revealed its physiological role as both an anti-oxidant and a pro-oxidant, acting as both a scavenger and a generator of reactive oxygen species (ROSs). These discoveries have prompted research interest in SU and xanthine oxidoreductase (XOR), an enzyme that produces both urate and ROSs, as status or progression biomarkers of chronic kidney disease and cardiovascular disease. The notion of "the lower, the better" is therefore incorrect; a better understanding of uric acid handling and metabolism/transport comes from an awareness that excessively high and low levels both cause problems. We summarize here the current body of evidence, demonstrate that uric acid is much more than a metabolic waste product, and finally propose the novel disease concept of "dysuricemia" on the path toward "normouricemia", or optimal SU level, to take advantage of the dual roles of uric acid. Our proposal should help to interpret the spectrum from hypouricemia to hyperuricemia/gout as a single disease category.

Serum KL-6 levels predict clinical outcomes and are associated with MUC1 polymorphism in Japanese patients with COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Krebs von den Lungen-6 (KL-6) is a known biomarker for diagnosis and monitoring of interstitial lung diseases. However, the role of serum KL-6 and the mucin 1 (MUC1) variant (rs4072037) in COVID-19 outcomes remains to be elucidated. We aimed to evaluate the relationships among serum KL-6 levels, critical outcomes and the MUC1 variant in Japanese patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

This is a secondary analysis of a multicentre retrospective study using data from the Japan COVID-19 Task Force collected from February 2020 to November 2021, including 2226 patients with COVID-19 whose serum KL-6 levels were measured. An optimal serum KL-6 level cut-off to predict critical outcomes was determined and used for multivariable logistic regression analysis. Furthermore, the relationship among the allele dosage of the MUC1 variant, calculated from single nucleotide polymorphism typing data of genome-wide association studies using the imputation method, serum KL-6 levels and COVID-19 critical outcomes was evaluated.

RESULTS

Serum KL-6 levels were significantly higher in patients with COVID-19 with critical outcomes (511±442 U/mL) than those without (279±204 U/mL) (p<0.001). Serum KL-6 levels ≥304 U/mL independently predicted critical outcomes (adjusted OR (aOR) 3.47, 95% CI 2.44 to 4.95). Moreover, multivariable logistic regression analysis with age and sex indicated that the MUC1 variant was independently associated with increased serum KL-6 levels (aOR 0.24, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.32) but not significantly associated with critical outcomes (aOR 1.11, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.54).

CONCLUSION

Serum KL-6 levels predicted critical outcomes in Japanese patients with COVID-19 and were associated with the MUC1 variant. Therefore, serum KL-6 level is a potentially useful biomarker of critical COVID-19 outcomes.

Dysuricemia-A New Concept Encompassing Hyperuricemia and Hypouricemia

The importance of uric acid, the final metabolite of purines excreted by the kidneys and intestines, was not previously recognized, except for its role in forming crystals in the joints and causing gout. However, recent evidence implies that uric acid is not a biologically inactive substance and may exert a wide range of effects, including antioxidant, neurostimulatory, proinflammatory, and innate immune activities. Notably, uric acid has two contradictory properties: antioxidant and oxidative ones. In this review, we present the concept of "dysuricemia", a condition in which deviation from the appropriate range of uric acid in the living body results in disease. This concept encompasses both hyperuricemia and hypouricemia. This review draws comparisons between the biologically biphasic positive and negative effects of uric acid and discusses the impact of such effects on various diseases.

Inflammation Related to Association of Low Uric Acid and Progression to Severe Disease in Patients Hospitalized for Non-Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019

Uric acid has antioxidant properties. To examine whether a low uric acid level is associated with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) progression via inflammation, alveolar damage, and/or coagulation abnormality, a retrospective observational study of 488 patients with non-severe COVID-19 and serum uric acid level ≤7 mg/dL at admission was conducted. Serum C-reactive protein (CRP), serum Krebs von den Lungen 6 (KL-6), and plasma D-dimer levels were also measured as markers of inflammation, alveolar damage, and coagulation abnormality, respectively. Median values for uric acid, CRP, KL-6, and D-dimer at admission were 4.4 mg/dL, 3.33 mg/dL, 252.0 U/mL, and 0.8 µg/mL, respectively. Among the total cohort, 95 (19.5%) progressed to severe COVID-19 with a median (interquartile range) time of 7 (4–14) days. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that low uric acid level was associated with a higher rate of severe COVID-19 progression. However, uric acid level was inversely associated with CRP level, and the association between the level of uric acid and severe COVID-19 progression was significantly different with and without CRP level inclusion. In contrast, no such association was found for KL-6 or D-dimer level. Low uric acid may contribute to severe COVID-19 progression via increased inflammation in subjects without hyperuricemia.

Characteristics of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 during the first to fifth waves of infection: a report from the Japan COVID-19 Task Force

BACKGROUND

We aimed to elucidate differences in the characteristics of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring hospitalization in Japan, by COVID-19 waves, from conventional strains to the Delta variant.

METHODS

We used secondary data from a database and performed a retrospective cohort study that included 3261 patients aged ≥ 18 years enrolled from 78 hospitals that participated in the Japan COVID-19 Task Force between February 2020 and September 2021.

RESULTS

Patients hospitalized during the second (mean age, 53.2 years [standard deviation {SD}, ± 18.9]) and fifth (mean age, 50.7 years [SD ± 13.9]) COVID-19 waves had a lower mean age than those hospitalized during the other COVID-19 waves. Patients hospitalized during the first COVID-19 wave had a longer hospital stay (mean, 30.3 days [SD ± 21.5], p < 0.0001), and post-hospitalization complications, such as bacterial infections (21.3%, p < 0.0001), were also noticeable. In addition, there was an increase in the use of drugs such as remdesivir/baricitinib/tocilizumab/steroids during the latter COVID-19 waves. In the fifth COVID-19 wave, patients exhibited a greater number of presenting symptoms, and a higher percentage of patients required oxygen therapy at the time of admission. However, the percentage of patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation was the highest in the first COVID-19 wave and the mortality rate was the highest in the third COVID-19 wave.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified differences in clinical characteristics of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in each COVID-19 wave up to the fifth COVID-19 wave in Japan. The fifth COVID-19 wave was associated with greater disease severity on admission, the third COVID-19 wave had the highest mortality rate, and the first COVID-19 wave had the highest percentage of patients requiring mechanical ventilation.