Improved prediction of oscillatory heat transfer coefficient for a thermoacoustic heat exchanger using modified adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

A Novel Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Approach to the Future of Global Coal Consumption Using Whale Optimization Algorithm and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Energy has become an integral part of our society and global economic development in the twenty-first century. Despite tremendous technological advancements, fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil) continue to be the world’s primary source of energy. Global energy scenarios indicate a change in coal consumption trends in the future, which in turn will have commercial, geopolitical, and environmental consequences. We investigated coal consumption up to 2030 using a new hybrid method of WOANFIS (whale optimization algorithm and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system). The WOANFIS method’s performance was assessed by the MSE (Mean Squared Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), STD (error standard deviation), RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), and coefficient of correlation (R2) among the real dataset and the WOANFIS result. For the prediction of global coal consumption, the proposed WOANFIS had the best MAE, RMSE, and correlation coefficient (R2) values, which were 0.00113, 0.0047, and 0.98, respectively. Lastly, future global coal consumption was predicted up to 2030 by WOANFIS. Following 150 years of coal dominance, the results demonstrate that WOANFIS is a suitable method for estimating worldwide coal consumption, which makes it possible to plan for the transition away from coal.

An Optimized Multilayer Perceptrons Model Using Grey Wolf Optimizer to Predict Mechanical and Microstructural Properties of Friction Stir Processed Aluminum Alloy Reinforced by Nanoparticles

In the current investigation, AA2024 aluminum alloy is reinforced by alumina nanoparticles using a friction stir process (FSP) with multiple passes. The mechanical properties and microstructure observation are conducted experimentally using tensile, microhardness, and microscopy analysis methods. The impacts of the process parameters on the output responses, such as mechanical properties and microstructure grain refinement, were investigated. The effect of multiple FSP passes on the grain refinement, and various mechanical properties are evaluated, then the results are conducted to train a hybrid artificial intelligence predictive model. The model consists of a multilayer perceptrons optimized by a grey wolf optimizer to predict mechanical and microstructural properties of friction stir processed aluminum alloy reinforced by alumina nanoparticles. The inputs of the model were rotational speed, linear processing speed, and number of passes; while the outputs were grain size, aspect ratio, microhardness, and ultimate tensile strength. The prediction accuracy of the developed hybrid model was compared with that of standalone multilayer perceptrons model using different error measures. The developed hybrid model shows a higher accuracy compared with the standalone model.

Utilization of random vector functional link integrated with manta ray foraging optimization for effluent prediction of wastewater treatment plant

An innovative predictive model was employed to predict the key performance indicators of a full-scale wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) operated with an activated sludge treatment process. The data-driven model was obtained using data gathered from Cairo, Egypt. The proposed model consists of Random Vector Functional Link (RVFL) Networks incorporated with Manta Ray Foraging Optimizer (MRFO). RVFL is used as an advanced Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that avoids the common conventional ANN problems such as overfitting. MRFO is employed to determine the best RVFL parameters to maximize the prediction accuracy of the model. The developed MRFO-RVFL is compared with conventional RVFL to figure out the role of MRFO as an optimization tool to enhance model performance. Both models were trained and tested using experimental data measured during a long period of 222 days. This study aims to provide an accurate prediction of the most widely treated effluent indicators of BOD₅ and TSS in the wastewater treatment plants. In this study, ten well-known influent wastewater parameters, BOD₅, TSS, and VSS, influent flow rate, pH, ambient temperature, F/M ratio, SRT, WAS, and RAS, the output BOD₅ and TSS were modeled and predicted using the integrated MRFO-RVFL algorithms and compared with the standalone RVFL model. The performance of the models was evaluated using different assessment measures such as R², RMSE, and others. The obtained results of R² and RMSE for the MRFO-RVFL model were 0.924 and 3.528 for BOD₅ and 0.917 and 6.153 for TSS, which were much better than the results of conventional RVFL with 0.840 and 6.207 for BOD₅ and 0.717 and 10.05 for TSS. Based on the obtained results, the selective model (MRFO-RVFL) exhibited a higher performance and validity to predict the TSS and optimal BOD₅.

Taxonomy of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in Modern Engineering Sciences

Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) blends advantages of both Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Fuzzy Logic (FL) in a single framework. It provides accelerated learning capacity and adaptive interpretation capabilities to model complex patterns and apprehends nonlinear relationships. ANFIS has been applied and practiced in various domains and provided solutions to commonly recurring problems with improved time and space complexity. Standard ANFIS has certain limitations such as high computational expense, loss of interpretability in larger inputs, curse of dimensionality, and selection of appropriate membership functions. This paper summarizes that the standard ANFIS is unsuitable for complex human tasks that require precise handling of machines and systems. The state-of-the-art and practice research questions have been discussed, which primarily focus on the applicability of ANFIS in the diversifying field of engineering sciences. We conclude that the standard ANFIS architecture is vastly improved when amalgamated with metaheuristic techniques and further moderated with nature-inspired algorithms through calibration and tuning of parameters. It is significant in adapting and automating complex engineering tasks that currently depend on human discretion, prominent in the mechanical, electrical, and geological fields.

Efficient artificial intelligence forecasting models for COVID-19 outbreak in Russia and Brazil

COVID-19 is a new member of the Coronaviridae family that has serious effects on respiratory, gastrointestinal, and neurological systems. COVID-19 spreads quickly worldwide and affects more than 41.5 million persons (till 23 October 2020). It has a high hazard to the safety and health of people all over the world. COVID-19 has been declared as a global pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Therefore, strict special policies and plans should be made to face this pandemic. Forecasting COVID-19 cases in hotspot regions is a critical issue, as it helps the policymakers to develop their future plans. In this paper, we propose a new short term forecasting model using an enhanced version of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). An improved marine predators algorithm (MPA), called chaotic MPA (CMPA), is applied to enhance the ANFIS and to avoid its shortcomings. More so, we compared the proposed CMPA with three artificial intelligence-based models include the original ANFIS, and two modified versions of ANFIS model using both of the original marine predators algorithm (MPA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). The forecasting accuracy of the models was compared using different statistical assessment criteria. CMPA significantly outperformed all other investigated models.

Deep learning-based forecasting model for COVID-19 outbreak in Saudi Arabia

COVID-19 outbreak has become a global pandemic that affected more than 200 countries. Predicting the epidemiological behavior of this outbreak has a vital role to prevent its spreading. In this study, long short-term memory (LSTM) network as a robust deep learning model is proposed to forecast the number of total confirmed cases, total recovered cases, and total deaths in Saudi Arabia. The model was trained using the official reported data. The optimal values of the model's parameters that maximize the forecasting accuracy were determined. The forecasting accuracy of the model was assessed using seven statistical assessment criteria, namely, root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), efficiency coefficient (EC), overall index (OI), coefficient of variation (COV), and coefficient of residual mass (CRM). A reasonable forecasting accuracy was obtained. The forecasting accuracy of the suggested model is compared with two other models. The first is a statistical based model called autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The second is an artificial intelligence based model called nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks (NARANN). Finally, the proposed LSTM model was applied to forecast the total number of confirmed cases as well as deaths in six different countries; Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, and USA. These countries have different epidemic trends as they apply different polices and have different age structure, weather, and culture. The social distancing and protection measures applied in different countries are assumed to be maintained during the forecasting period. The obtained results may help policymakers to control the disease and to put strategic plans to organize Hajj and the closure periods of the schools and universities.

Forecasting the prevalence of COVID-19 outbreak in Egypt using nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is a new Coronavirus, with first reported human infections in late 2019. COVID-19 has been officially declared as a universal pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-2019 have not been completely understood yet. More than 200,000 persons were killed during this epidemic (till 1 May 2020). Therefore, developing forecasting models to predict the spread of that epidemic is a critical issue. In this study, statistical and artificial intelligence based approaches have been proposed to model and forecast the prevalence of this epidemic in Egypt. These approaches are autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks (NARANN). The official data reported by The Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population of COVID-19 cases in the period between 1 March and 10 May 2020 was used to train the models. The forecasted cases showed a good agreement with officially reported cases. The obtained results of this study may help the Egyptian decision-makers to put short-term future plans to face this epidemic.