Prognostic index score and clinical prediction model of local regional recurrence after mastectomy in breast cancer patients

RecurIndex-Guided postoperative radiotherapy with or without Avoidance of Irradiation of regional Nodes in 1-3 node-positive breast cancer (RIGAIN): a study protocol for a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled prospective, phase III trial

INTRODUCTION

Postoperative radiotherapy in patients with breast cancer with one to three lymph node metastases, particularly within the pT1-2N1M0 cohort with a low clinical risk of local-regional recurrence (LRR), has incited a discourse surrounding personalised treatment strategies. Multigene testing for Recurrence Index (RecurIndex) model capably differentiates patients based on their level of LRR risk. This research aims to validate whether a more aggressive treatment approach can enhance clinical outcomes in N1 patients who possess a clinically low risk of LRR, yet a high RecurIndex-determined risk of LRR. Specifically, this entails postoperative whole breast irradiation combined with regional lymph node irradiation (RNI) following breast-conserving surgery or chest wall irradiation with RNI after mastectomy.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The RIGAIN (RecurIndex-Guided postoperative radiotherapy with or without Avoidance of Irradiation of regional Nodes in 1-3 node-positive breast cancer) Study is a multicentre, prospective, randomised, open-label, phase III clinical trial that is being conducted in China. In this study, patients with low clinical LRR risk but high RecurIndex-LRR risk are randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to the experimental group or the control group. In the experimental group, RNI is performed and the control group omits RNI. Efficacy and safety analyses will be conducted, enrolling a total of 540 patients (270 per group). The primary endpoint is invasive disease-free survival, and secondary endpoints include any first recurrence, LRR-free survival, distant metastasis-free survival, recurrence-free survival, overall survival, disease-free survival, breast cancer-specific mortality and assessment of patient quality of life. The study began in April 2023 and with a follow-up period of 60 months after the last participant completes radiation therapy.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University (SYSKY-2022-097-02, V.3.1). It adheres to the Helsinki Declaration and Good Clinical Practice. Research findings will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04069884.

Validation of a prognostic scoring system for postmastectomy locoregional recurrence in breast cancer

Background

To date, it remains unclear which patients with breast cancer (BC) benefit from post-mastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT). Cheng et al. developed and validated a scoring system based on 4 prognostic factors for locoregional recurrence (LRR) to identify patients in need for PMRT. These factors include age, estrogen receptor status, lymphovascular status and number of affected axillary lymph nodes.

Purpose

To validate the scoring system for LRR in BC developed by Cheng et al. by using an independent BC database.

Methods and materials

We retrospectively identified 1989 BC cases, treated with mastectomy (ME) with or without PMRT at the University Hospitals Leuven between 2000 and 2007. The primary endpoint was 5-year locoregional control rate with and without PMRT, according to the LRR score.

Results

Median follow-up time was 11.4 years. After excluding patients with missing variables 1103 patients were classified using the LRR scoring system: 688 (62.38%) patients were at low risk of recurrence (LRR score 0–1), 335 (30.37%) patients were at intermediate risk of recurrence (LRR score 2–3) and 80 (7.25%) patients were at high risk of recurrence (LRR score ≥4). 5-year locoregional control rates with and without PMRT were 99.20% versus 99.21% (p = 0.43) in the low-risk group; 98.24% versus 85.74% (p < 0.0001) in the intermediate-risk group and 96.87% versus 85.71% (p = 0.10) in the high-risk group respectively.

Conclusion

Our validation of the LRR scoring system suggests it can be used to point out patients that would benefit from PMRT. We recommend further validation of this scoring system by other independent institutions before application in clinical practice.

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Post-mastectomy radiotherapy.

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Scoring system by Cheng et al.

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Based on 4 factors.

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Age, estrogen receptor, lymphovascular status, affected axillary lymph nodes.

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Intermediate and high-risk patients could benefit from post-mastectomy radiotherapy.

Estimating latent, dynamic processes of breast cancer tumour growth and distant metastatic spread from mammography screening data

We propose a framework for jointly modelling tumour size at diagnosis and time to distant metastatic spread, from diagnosis, based on latent dynamic sub-models of growth of the primary tumour and of distant metastatic detection. The framework also includes a sub-model for screening sensitivity as a function of latent tumour size. Our approach connects post-diagnosis events to the natural history of cancer and, once refined, may prove useful for evaluating new interventions, such as personalised screening regimes. We evaluate our model-fitting procedure using Monte Carlo simulation, showing that the estimation algorithm can retrieve the correct model parameters, that key patterns in the data can be captured by the model even with misspecification of some structural assumptions, and that, still, with enough data it should be possible to detect strong misspecifications. Furthermore, we fit our model to observational data from an extension of a case-control study of post-menopausal breast cancer in Sweden, providing model-based estimates of the probability of being free from detected distant metastasis as a function of tumour size, mode of detection (of the primary tumour), and screening history. For women with screen-detected cancer and two previous negative screens, the probabilities of being free from detected distant metastases 5 years after detection and removal of the primary tumour are 0.97, 0.89 and 0.59 for tumours of diameter 5, 15 and 35 mm, respectively. We also study the probability of having latent/dormant metastases at detection of the primary tumour, estimating that 33% of patients in our study had such metastases.

The Clinical Research and Latest Application of Genomic Assays in Early-Stage Breast Cancer

Breast cancer is a kind of malignant tumor that seriously endangers women's life and health. Once diagnosed, most patients will receive a combination of treatments to achieve a cure. However, breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease. Even with the same clinical stage and pathological features, its response to treatment and postoperative recurrence risk may still be completely different. With the advent of genomic assay, some patients with early-stage breast cancer who originally needed treatment can still achieve long-term disease-free survival without adjuvant chemotherapy, so as to achieve personalized and accurate treatment mode to a certain extent. In this paper, we reviewed the 5 most widely used and studied genomic panel technologies in breast cancer, namely Oncotype DX, MammaPrint, RecurIndex, PAM50, and EndoPredict, according to accessibility and availability. Based on the results of the completed or ongoing clinical studies, we summarized the origin, applicable population, and clinical efficacy of each detection method, and discussed the potential development prospect of detection technology in the future.

A new clinical-genomic model to predict 10-year recurrence risk in primary operable breast cancer patients

This study aimed to validate the long-term prognostic value of a new clinical-genomic model, Distant Genetic Model-Clinical Variable Model 6 (DGM-CM6), developed in Asia as a prognostic panel for all subtypes of breast cancer. We included 752 operable stage I–III breast cancer patients representing all subtypes treated from 2005 to 2014 as the validation cohort. The median follow-up was 95.8 months. The low- and high-risk patients classified by DGM-CM6 (RI-DR) had significant differences in 10-year distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI) (94.1% vs. 85.0%, P < 0.0001) and relapse-free survival (RFS) (90.0% vs. 80.5%, P = 0.0003). External validation using EMTAB-365 dataset showed similar observation (P < 0.0001). DGM-CM6 was an independent prognostic factor by multivariate analysis with hazard ratios of 3.1 (1.6–6.0) for RFS (P = 0.0009) and 3.8 (1.6–9.0) for DRFI (P = 0.0028). Comparing the C-index of DGM-CM6 and PAM50-ROR scores, the former performed better than the latter in predicting long-term DRFI and RFS, especially in N0, ER/PR-positive, and HER2-negative patients.

Can a subgroup at high risk for LRR be identified from T1-2 breast cancer with negative lymph nodes after mastectomy? A meta-analysis

Purpose: To identify a subgroup at high risk for loco-regional recurrence (LRR) from T1-2 breast cancer with negative lymph nodes (N0) after mastectomy by using a meta-analysis.Methods and materials: Published studies on the relationship between clinical features and LRR of breast cancer were identified from public databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library. High-risk features for LRR in this patient population were defined based on the pooled results of meta-analysis.Results: For the meta-analysis, a total of 11244 breast cancers with pT1-2N0 after mastectomy from 20 publications were included for analysis. The pooled results indicated that age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.77, P=0.001), lymphovascular invasion (LVI) (HR 2.23, P<0.001), histologic grade (HR 1.66, P<0.001), HER2 status (HR 1.65, P=0.027), menopausal status (HR 1.36, P=0.015), and surgical margins (HR 2.56, P=0.014) were associated with a significantly increased risk of developing LRR in this patient population group, but not for tumor size (HR 1.32, P=0.23), systematic therapy (HR 1.67, P=0.20), and hormonal receptor status (HR 1.04, P=0.73).Conclusion: In the current study, patients with young age, positive LVI, high histologic grade, HER-2 positive, premenopausal, and positive surgical margins have an increased risk of developing LRR. Further prospective trials are needed to clearly define the role of adjuvant postmastectomy radiotherapy in T1-2N0 breast cancer at high risk of developing LRR.

Facilitating validation of prediction models: a comparison of manual and semi-automated validation using registry-based data of breast cancer patients in the Netherlands

Background

Clinical prediction models are not routinely validated. To facilitate validation procedures, the online Evidencio platform (https://www.evidencio.com) has developed a tool partly automating this process. This study aims to determine whether semi-automated validation can reliably substitute manual validation.

Methods

Four different models used in breast cancer care were selected: CancerMath, INFLUENCE, Predicted Probability of Axillary Metastasis, and PREDICT v.2.0. Data were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry according to the inclusion criteria of the original development population. Calibration (intercepts and slopes) and discrimination (area under the curve (AUC)) were compared between semi-automated and manual validation.

Results

Differences between intercepts and slopes of all models using semi-automated validation ranged from 0 to 0.03 from manual validation, which was not clinically relevant. AUCs were identical for both validation methods.

Conclusions

This easy to use semi-automated validation option is a good substitute for manual validation and might increase the number of validations of prediction models used in clinical practice. In addition, the validation tool was considered to be user-friendly and to save a lot of time compared to manual validation. Semi-automated validation will contribute to more accurate outcome predictions and treatment recommendations in the target population.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12874-019-0761-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Prognostic models for breast cancer: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide, with a great diversity in outcomes among individual patients. The ability to accurately predict a breast cancer outcome is important to patients, physicians, researchers, and policy makers. Many models have been developed and tested in different settings. We systematically reviewed the prognostic models developed and/or validated for patients with breast cancer.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search in four electronic databases and some oncology websites, and a manual search in the bibliographies of the included studies. We identified original studies that were published prior to 1st January 2017, and presented the development and/or validation of models based mainly on clinico-pathological factors to predict mortality and/or recurrence in female breast cancer patients.

RESULTS

From the 96 articles selected from 4095 citations found, we identified 58 models, which predicted mortality (n = 28), recurrence (n = 23), or both (n = 7). The most frequently used predictors were nodal status (n = 49), tumour size (n = 42), tumour grade (n = 29), age at diagnosis (n = 24), and oestrogen receptor status (n = 21). Models were developed in Europe (n = 25), Asia (n = 13), North America (n = 12), and Australia (n = 1) between 1982 and 2016. Models were validated in the development cohorts (n = 43) and/or independent populations (n = 17), by comparing the predicted outcomes with the observed outcomes (n = 55) and/or with the outcomes estimated by other models (n = 32), or the outcomes estimated by individual prognostic factors (n = 8). The most commonly used methods were: Cox proportional hazards regression for model development (n = 32); the absolute differences between the predicted and observed outcomes (n = 30) for calibration; and C-index/AUC (n = 44) for discrimination. Overall, the models performed well in the development cohorts but less accurately in some independent populations, particularly in patients with high risk and young and elderly patients. An exception is the Nottingham Prognostic Index, which retains its predicting ability in most independent populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Many prognostic models have been developed for breast cancer, but only a few have been validated widely in different settings. Importantly, their performance was suboptimal in independent populations, particularly in patients with high risk and in young and elderly patients.

Local Cancer Recurrence: The Realities, Challenges, and Opportunities for New Therapies

Locoregional recurrence negatively impacts both long-term survival and quality of life for several malignancies. For appropriate-risk patients with an isolated, resectable, local recurrence, surgery represents the only potentially curative therapy. However, oncologic outcomes remain inferior for patients with locally recurrent disease even after macroscopically complete resection. Unfortunately, these operations are often extensive, with significant perioperative morbidity and mortality. This review highlights selected malignancies (mesothelioma, sarcoma, lung cancer, breast cancer, rectal cancer, and peritoneal surface malignancies) in which surgical resection is a key treatment modality and local recurrence plays a significant role in overall oncologic outcome with regard to survival and quality of life. For each type of cancer, the current, state-of-the-art treatment strategies and their outcomes are assessed. The need for additional therapeutic options is presented given the limitations of the current standard therapies. New and emerging treatment modalities, including polymer films and nanoparticles, are highlighted as potential future solutions for both prevention and treatment of locally recurrent cancers. Finally, the authors identify additional clinical and research opportunities and propose future research strategies based on the various patterns of local recurrence among the different cancers.

A scoring system to predict recurrence in breast cancer patients

OBJECTIVE

Current breast cancer recurrence prediction models have limitations for clinical practice (statistical methodology, simplicity and specific populations). We therefore developed a new model that overcomes these limitations.

METHODS

This cohort study comprised 272 patients with breast cancer followed between 2003 and 2016. The main variable was time-to-recurrence (locoregional and/or metastasis) and secondary variables were its risk factors: age, postmenopause, grade, oestrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, c-erbB2 status, stage, multicentricity, diagnosis and treatment. A Cox model to predict recurrence was estimated with the secondary variables, and this was adapted to a points system to predict risk at 5 and 10 years from diagnosis. The model was validated internally by bootstrapping, calculating the C statistic and smooth calibration (splines). The system was integrated into a mobile application for Android.

RESULTS

Of the 272 patients with breast cancer, 47 (17.3%) developed recurrence in a mean time of 8.6 ± 3.5 years. The system variables were: age, grade, multicentricity and stage. Validation by bootstrapping showed good discrimination and calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

A points system has been developed to predict breast cancer recurrence at 5 and 10 years.

Risk factors of locoregional relapse in locally advanced breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy following mastectomy and radiotherapy

We seek to investigate the prognostic factors that could possibly increase the locoregional recurrence of breast cancer patients who do not achieve pathological complete response after neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and to build a prognostic nomogram to predict patients' outcome. The retrospective analysis included 510 patients who had received neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery and radiotherapy. 62 locoregional events occurred after a median 61 months of follow-up. The five-year cumulative incidence of local recurrence and regional recurrence were 8.63% and 4.31%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that positivity for ≥ 4 lymph nodes and Ki-67 index ≥ 14% were independent factors. According to our prognostic model, the 5-year locoregional free survival rates in the low, intermediate, and high-risk groups were 95.5%, 89.1%, and 67.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). Annual recurrence curves indicated that the relapse peak after mastectomy emerged in the first 1 year. Positivity for ≥ 4 lymph nodes and Ki-67 index ≥ 14% were independent factors for locoregional recurrence. This prognostic model has considerable clinical value in predicting locoregional recurrence, which could help clinicians to design appropriate locoregional treatment specifically and to perform surveillance individually.

Locoregional Treatment of the Primary Tumor in Patients With De Novo Stage IV Breast Cancer: A Radiation Oncologist's Perspective

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to assess the outcomes of patients with de novo stage IV breast cancer after locoregional treatment (LRT) of primary site.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We studied 245 patients diagnosed with de novo stage IV breast cancer. LRT of the primary tumor (+ systemic therapy) was performed in 82 (34%) patients (surgery, 27; surgery + radiotherapy (RT), 46; and RT, 9). Among those undergoing surgery, 64 (88%) patients underwent mastectomy, and 9 (12%) patients underwent breast-conserving surgery (BCS). Local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) and overall survival (OS) were investigated, and propensity score matching was used to balance patient distributions.

RESULTS

The 5-year LRFS and OS rates were 27% and 50%, respectively. Advanced T stage (T4), liver or brain metastasis, ≥ 5 metastatic sites, and absence of hormone therapy were significant adverse factors for LRFS, whereas T4 stage and absence of hormone therapy were significant for OS. The LRT group demonstrated significantly more favorable outcomes (5-year LRFS, 61%; 5-year OS, 71%), especially after surgery. After matching, survival rates remained significantly higher for patients who received LRT (5-year LRFS, 62% vs. 20%; P < .001; 5-year OS, 73% vs. 45%; P = .02). BCS + RT was superior to mastectomy ± RT, which can be attributed to more patients with a low tumor burden undergoing BCS + RT. Outcomes were better with post-mastectomy RT in selected patients (≥ N2, ≥ T3, or T2N1).

CONCLUSIONS

Upfront LRT including RT is an important option together with systemic therapies for de novo stage IV breast cancer.

Association of Adjuvant Chemotherapy With Survival in Patients With Stage II or III Gastric Cancer

IMPORTANCE

The current staging system of gastric cancer is not adequate for defining a prognosis and predicting the patients most likely to benefit from chemotherapy.

OBJECTIVE

To construct a survival prediction model based on specific tumor and patient characteristics that enables individualized predictions of the net survival benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with stage II or stage III gastric cancer.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this multicenter retrospective analysis, a survival prediction model was constructed using data from a training cohort of 746 patients with stage II or stage III gastric cancer who satisfied the study's inclusion criteria and underwent surgery between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2012, at Nanfang Hospital in Guangzhou, China. Patient and tumor characteristics were included as covariates, and their association with overall survival and disease-free survival with and without adjuvant chemotherapy was assessed. The model was internally validated for discrimination and calibration using bootstrap resampling. To externally validate the model, data were included from a validation cohort of 973 patients with stage II or stage III gastric cancer who met the inclusion criteria and underwent surgery at First Affiliated Hospital in Guangzhou, China, and at West China Hospital of Sichuan Hospital in Chendu, China, between January 1, 2000, and June 30, 2009. Data were analyzed from July 10, 2016, to September 1, 2016.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Concordance index and decision curve analysis for each measure associated with postoperative overall survival and disease-free survival.

RESULTS

Of the 1719 patients analyzed, 1183 (68.8%) were men and 536 (31.2%) were women and the median (interquartile range) age was 57 (49-66) years. Age, location, differentiation, carcinoembryonic antigen, cancer antigen 19-9, depth of invasion, lymph node metastasis, and adjuvant chemotherapy were significantly associated with overall survival and disease-free survival, with P < .05. The survival prediction model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination, with relatively high bootstrap-corrected concordance indexes in the training and validation cohorts. In the validation cohort, the concordance index for overall survival was 0.693 (95% CI, 0.671-0.715) and for disease-free survival was 0.704 (95% CI, 0.681-0.728). Two nomograms and a calculating tool were built on the basis of specific input variables to estimate an individual's net survival gain attributable to adjuvant chemotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The survival prediction model can be used to make individualized predictions of the expected survival benefit from the addition of adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with stage II or stage III gastric cancer.

A prototype of a flexible grid electrode to treat widespread superficial tumors by means of Electrochemotherapy

Background

In recent years, superficial chest wall recurrence from breast cancer can be effectively treated by means of electrochemotherapy, with the majority of patients achieving response to treatment. Nevertheless, tumor spread along superficial lymphatic vessels makes this peculiar type of tumor recurrence prone to involve large skin areas and difficult to treat. In these cases, electroporation with standard, small size needle electrodes can be time-consuming and produce an inhomogeneous coverage of the target area, ultimately resulting in patient under treatment.

Materials and methods

Authors designed and developed a prototype of a flexible grid electrode aimed at the treatment of large skin surfaces and manufactured a connection box to link the pulse applicator to a voltage pulse generator. Laboratory tests on potato tissue were performed in order to evaluate the electroporation effect, which was evaluated by observing color change of treated tissue.

Results

A device has been designed in order to treat chest wall recurrences from breast cancer. According to preliminary tests, the new flexible support of the electrode allows the adaptability to the surface to be treated. Moreover, the designed devices can be useful to treat a larger surface in 2–5 minutes.

Conclusions

Authors developed the prototype of a new pulse applicator aimed at the treatment of widespread superficial tumors. This flexible grid needle electrode was successfully tested on potato tissue and produced an electroporation effect. From a clinical point of view, the development of this device may shorten electrochemotherapy procedure thus allowing clinicians to administer electric pulses at the time of maximum tumor exposure to drugs. Moreover, since the treatment time is 2–5 min long, it could also reduce the time of anesthesia, thus improving patient recovery.

An Eighteen-Gene Classifier Predicts Locoregional Recurrence in Post-Mastectomy Breast Cancer Patients

We previously identified 34 genes of interest (GOI) in 2006 to aid the oncologists to determine whether post-mastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) is indicated for certain patients with breast cancer. At this time, an independent cohort of 135 patients having DNA microarray study available from the primary tumor tissue samples was chosen. Inclusion criteria were 1) mastectomy as the first treatment, 2) pathology stages I-III, 3) any locoregional recurrence (LRR) and 4) no PMRT. After inter-platform data integration of Affymetrix U95 and U133 Plus 2.0 arrays and quantile normalization, in this paper we used 18 of 34 GOI to divide the mastectomy patients into high and low risk groups. The 5-year rate of freedom from LRR in the high-risk group was 30%. In contrast, in the low-risk group it was 99% (p < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis revealed that the 18-gene classifier independently predicts rates of LRR regardless of nodal status or cancer subtype.

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No molecular markers are available to determine post-mastectomy radiotherapy for breast cancer patients.

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Statistically about 2-8% N0 and 20% of N1 mastectomy patients would develop local/regional recurrence (LRR).

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An 18-gene classifier is capable of identifying patients at risk for LRR after mastectomy.

There is no consensus whether to give post-mastectomy radiotherapy to all N1 patients according to the St. Gallen consensus meeting in 2015. Currently about one half of N1 mastectomy patients have been given adjuvant radiotherapy in the United States. From a separate patient population, we now have developed an 18-gene classifier included in our previously published 34-gene panel. This diminished multigene set of classifier is capable of differentiating post-mastectomy breast cancer patients into the low- and high-risk groups. This new classifier has the potential to spare low-risk N1 patients from radiotherapy and at the same time help identify high-risk N0 patients for radiotherapy.

Socioeconomic and racial disparities in the selection of chest wall boost radiation therapy in californian women after mastectomy

To better elucidate the socioeconomic and racial differences in women who received postmastectomy radiation therapy with or without a chest wall boost, the records from 4747 women included in the California Cancer Registry were reviewed. Poor and Hispanic women were more likely to receive a chest wall boost than were more affluent and non-Hispanic women.

INTRODUCTION

Healthcare disparities in breast cancer treatment have been well documented. We investigated the socioeconomic status (SES) and racial factors in women with locally advanced breast cancer from the California Cancer Registry who had received postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT) with or without a chest wall boost (CWB).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The records of 4747 women with invasive breast cancer, diagnosed from 2005 to 2009, who had undergone PMRT, were reviewed and stratified by treatment with (n = 2686 [57%]) or without (n = 2061 [43%]) a CWB. Various patient demographic and biologic factors were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Receipt of a CWB was associated with race/ethnicity (P < .001), SES (P < .001), tumor size (P = .038), tumor grade (P = .033), human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2) status (P = .015), American Joint Committee on Cancer stage (P = .001), number of nodes examined (P = .001), and number of positive nodes (P = .037) on univariate analysis. After controlling for confounding factors, race/ethnicity and SES remained independently predictive of a CWB. Hispanic women were more likely to receive a CWB than Asian (hazard ratio [HR], 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60-0.90), black (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.48-0.83), or white (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.69-0.95) women. Also, women of low SES were more likely to receive a CWB than women of high SES (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.64-0.86).

CONCLUSION

We found that poor and Hispanic women were more commonly treated with a CWB than were more affluent and non-Hispanic women with a similar cancer stage, cancer biology, and treatment paradigm.

Effects of postmastectomy radiotherapy on prognosis in different tumor stages of breast cancer patients with positive axillary lymph nodes

Objective

To explore the effects of postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) on the locoregional failure-free survival (LRFFS) and overall survival (OS) of breast cancer patients under different tumor stages and with one to three positive axillary lymph nodes (ALNs).

Methods

We conducted a retrospective review of 527 patients with one to three positive lymph nodes who underwent modified radical or partial mastectomy and axillary dissection from January 2000 to December 2002. The patients were divided into the T₁-T₂ N₁ and T₃-T₄ N₁ groups. The effects of PMRT on the LRFFS and OS of these two patient groups were analyzed using SPSS 19.0, Pearson’s χ²-test, Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

For T₁-T₂ N₁ patients, no statistical significance was observed in the effects of PMRT on LRFFS [hazard ratio (HR)=0.726; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.233-2.265; P=0.582] and OS (HR=0.914; 95% CI: 0.478-1.745; P=0.784) of the general patients. Extracapsular extension (ECE) and high histological grade were the risk factors for LRFFS and OS with statistical significance in multivariate analysis. Stratification analysis showed that PMRT statistically improved the clinical outcomes in high-risk patients [ECE (+), LRFFS: P=0.026, OS: P=0.007; histological grade III, LRFFS: P<0.001, OS: P=0.007] but not in low-risk patients [ECE (–), LRFFS: P=0.987, OS: P=0.502; histological grade I-II, LRFFS: P=0.816, OS: P=0.296]. For T₃-T₄ N₁ patients, PMRT effectively improved the local control (HR=0.089; 95% CI: 0.210-0.378; P=0.001) of the general patients, whereas no statistical effect was observed on OS (HR=1.251; 95% CI: 0.597-2.622; P=0.552). Absence of estrogen receptors and progesterone receptors (ER/PR) (–) was an independent risk factor. Further stratification analysis indicated a statistical difference in LRFFS and OS between the high-risk patients with ER/PR (–) receiving PMRT and not receiving PMRT [ER/PR (–), LRFFS: P=0.046, OS: P=0.039]. However, PMRT had a beneficial effect on the reduction of locoregional recurrence (LRR) but not in total mortality [ER/PR (+), LRFFS: P<0.001, OS: P= 0.695] in T₃-T₄ N₁ patients with ER/PR (+) who received endocrine therapy.

Conclusion

PMRT could reduce ECE (+), histological grade III-related LRR, and total mortality of T₁-T₂ N₁ patients. T₃-T₄ N₁ patients with ER/PR (–) could benefit from PMRT by improving LRFFS and OS. However, PMRT could only reduce LRR but failed to improve OS for T₃-T₄ N₁ patients with ER/PR (+) who received endocrine therapy.

Differential prognostic indicators for locoregional recurrence, distant recurrence, and death of breast cancer

Objective. To explore prognostic characteristics for locoregional recurrence, distant recurrence, and mortality in patients with breast cancer. Methods. A 5-year retrospective review of patients was conducted in two university affiliated hospitals in the north of Thailand. Prognostic characteristics and clinical outcomes were retrieved from medical registry. Death was verified by the civil database from the Ministry of Interior, direct telephone contact, or by prepaid postcard. Data were analyzed by stratified Cox's regression proposed by Lunn & McNeil, in which multiple-typed outcomes were analyzed in a single multivariable model. Results. The assembled cohort comprised 829 patients. Under the multivariable analysis, 7 prognostic characteristics were significant prognostic indicators. Positive axillary lymph nodes >3 and presence of lymphovascular invasion (LVI) increased locoregional recurrence, while disease stage 3, positive axillary lymph nodes >3, and radiotherapy increase distant recurrence. Hormonal therapy reduced the distant recurrence. Pathological tumor size >2 cm, disease stage 3, positive axillary lymph nodes >3, and presence of LVI increased, while hormonal therapy and chemotherapy reduced death. Conclusions. Clinical characteristic reflecting tumor invasions increased locoregional recurrence, distant recurrence, or death, while hormonal therapy and chemotherapy reduced such risks. The effect of radiation remained inconclusive but may increase the risk of distant recurrence.

Validating a prognostic scoring system for postmastectomy locoregional recurrence in breast cancer

PURPOSE

This study is designed to validate a previously developed locoregional recurrence risk (LRR) scoring system and further define which groups of patients with breast cancer would benefit from postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

An LRR risk scoring system was developed previously at our institution using breast cancer patients initially treated with modified radical mastectomy between 1990 and 2001. The LRR score comprised 4 factors: patient age, lymphovascular invasion, estrogen receptor negativity, and number of involved lymph nodes. We sought to validate the original study by examining a new dataset of 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007.

RESULTS

The 1545 patients were scored according to the previously developed criteria: 920 (59.6%) were low risk (score 0-1), 493 (31.9%) intermediate risk (score 2-3), and 132 (8.5%) were high risk (score ≥4). The 5-year locoregional control rates with and without PMRT in low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 98% versus 97% (P=.41), 97% versus 91% (P=.0005), and 89% versus 50% (P=.0002) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis of an additional 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007 validates our previously reported LRR scoring system and suggests appropriate patients for whom PMRT will be beneficial. Independent validation of this scoring system by other institutions is recommended.

Impact of postmastectomy radiation on locoregional recurrence in breast cancer patients with 1-3 positive lymph nodes treated with modern systemic therapy

PURPOSE

Postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT) remains controversial for patients with 1-3 positive lymph nodes (LN+).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We conducted a retrospective review of all 369 breast cancer patients with 1-3 LN+ who underwent mastectomy without neoadjuvant systemic therapy between 2000 and 2007 at Cleveland Clinic.

RESULTS

We identified 271 patients with 1-3 LN+ who did not receive PMRT and 98 who did receive PMRT. The median follow-up time was 5.2 years, and the median number of LN dissected was 11. Of those not treated with PMRT, 79% received adjuvant chemotherapy (of whom 70% received a taxane), 79% received hormonal therapy, and 5% had no systemic therapy. Of the Her2/neu amplified tumors, 42% received trastuzumab. The 5-year rate of locoregional recurrence (LRR) was 8.9% without PMRT vs 0% with PMRT (P=.004). For patients who did not receive PMRT, univariate analysis showed 6 risk factors significantly (P<.05) correlated with LRR: estrogen receptor/progesterone receptor negative (hazard ratio [HR] 2.6), lymphovascular invasion (HR 2.4), 2-3 LN+ (HR 2.6), nodal ratio >25% (HR 2.7), extracapsular extension (ECE) (HR 3.7), and Bloom-Richardson grade III (HR 3.1). The 5-year LRR rate was 3.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1%-6.8%] for patients with 0-1 risk factor vs 14.6% [95% CI, 8.4%-20.9%] for patients with ≥2 risk factors (P=.0006), respectively. On multivariate analysis, ECE (HR 4.3, P=.0006) and grade III (HR 3.6, P=.004) remained significant risk factors for LRR. The 5-year LRR was 4.1% in patients with neither grade III nor ECE, 8.1% with either grade III or ECE, and 50.4% in patients with both grade III and ECE (P<.0001); the corresponding 5-year distant metastasis-free survival rates were 91.8%, 85.4%, and 59.1% (P=.0004), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

PMRT offers excellent control for patients with 1-3 LN+, with no locoregional failures to date. Patients with 1-3 LN+ who have grade III disease and/or ECE should be strongly considered for PMRT.

The prognostic significance of lymphovascular invasion in invasive breast carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Although lymphovascular invasion (LVI) has been associated with a poor outcome in patients with breast cancer, it is not included in most internationally recognized staging systems, including the American Joint Committee on Cancer tumor, lymph node, metastasis (TNM) classification. This is mainly because it remains unclear whether the presence of LVI is an independent, high-risk criterion in clinically relevant staging subgroups.

METHODS

The current study was based on a large and well characterized consecutive series of patients who had operable (pathologic T1 [pT1]-pT2, pathologic N0 [pN0]-pN3, M0) breast cancer (3812 informative cases) who were treated according to standard protocols at a single institution and who had long-term follow-up to assess the prognostic value of definite LVI in clinically and molecularly relevant staging subgroups.

RESULTS

LVI was strongly associated with both breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) in the entire series and in different subgroups. Multivariate analyses identified LVI as an independent predictor of both BCSS and DMFS in patients with operable breast cancer overall; in the TNM clinical subgroups pT1a-pT1c/pN0 and pT2/pN0; and in the molecular classes estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, ER-negative, human epidermal growth factor 2 [HER2]-negative, and triple-negative. In patients who had lymph node-negative tumors, LVI could be used as a high-risk criterion providing survival disadvantage equivalent to that provided by 1 or 2 involved lymph nodes (pN0 to pN1) and to that provided by 1 size category (pT1 to pT2). The use of immunohistochemistry for detecting an endothelial-specific marker contributed to the prognostic significance of LVI when applied to routine LVI negative/possible cases.

CONCLUSIONS

LVI provided a strong predictor of outcome in patients with invasive breast cancer and should be incorporated into breast cancer staging systems.

Estimating survival in patients with operable skeletal metastases: an application of a bayesian belief network

Background

Accurate estimations of life expectancy are important in the management of patients with metastatic cancer affecting the extremities, and help set patient, family, and physician expectations. Clinically, the decision whether to operate on patients with skeletal metastases, as well as the choice of surgical procedure, are predicated on an individual patient's estimated survival. Currently, there are no reliable methods for estimating survival in this patient population. Bayesian classification, which includes Bayesian belief network (BBN) modeling, is a statistical method that explores conditional, probabilistic relationships between variables to estimate the likelihood of an outcome using observed data. Thus, BBN models are being used with increasing frequency in a variety of diagnoses to codify complex clinical data into prognostic models. The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of developing Bayesian classifiers to estimate survival in patients undergoing surgery for metastases of the axial and appendicular skeleton.

Methods

We searched an institution-owned patient management database for all patients who underwent surgery for skeletal metastases between 1999 and 2003. We then developed and trained a machine-learned BBN model to estimate survival in months using candidate features based on historical data. Ten-fold cross-validation and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were performed to evaluate the BNN model's accuracy and robustness.

Results

A total of 189 consecutive patients were included. First-degree predictors of survival differed between the 3-month and 12-month models. Following cross validation, the area under the ROC curve was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.80–0.93) for 3-month probability of survival and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.77–0.90) for 12-month probability of survival.

Conclusions

A robust, accurate, probabilistic naïve BBN model was successfully developed using observed clinical data to estimate individualized survival in patients with operable skeletal metastases. This method warrants further development and must be externally validated in other patient populations.

Therapeutic benefit of radiotherapy after surgery in patients with T1–T2 breast tumour

Purpose: To look for the therapeutic benefit of radiotherapy after surgery in patients with T1–T2 breast tumour.

Methodology: From 1990 to 2000, 915 patients with T1–T2 breast tumour who underwent mastectomy or conservative breast surgery (CBS) with or without radiotherapy were analysed retrospectively for age, disease stage, radiation therapy technique, dose, the use of chemotherapy or hormonal therapy and other clinical and/or pathologic characteristics. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRRFS) and overall survival (OS). The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to determine significant prognostic factors affecting LRRFS and OS.

Results: At a median follow up of 74 months, LRR rate was 5.3% and distant metastases rate was 19%. Disease-free survival (DFS) and OS at 10 year was 72% and 76%, respectively. LRR in patients with CBS followed with radiation was 3% as compared to 33% without radiation. LRR in patients with post-mastectomy radiation was 3% as compared to 19% without radiation. In patients with N0 nodes, LRR was 4% with radiation and 20% without radiation. Worst case was in patients with CBS-N0 who were not given radiation. LRR in such patients was 32% as compared to 5% in those who were given radiation post-CBS. In patients with mastectomy with N0 status, LRR was 3% with radiation as compared to 18% with out radiation. On univariate analysis factors affecting LRRFS were type of surgery, nodal involvement, radiotherapy and hormonal therapy. Factors affecting OS were nodal involvement, grade, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), extracapsular extension (ECE), chemotherapy and radiotherapy. On multivariate analysis factors affecting LRRFS were type of surgery, nodal involvement, radiotherapy and hormonal therapy. Factors affecting OS were nodal involvement, LVI, DCIS, ECE, chemotherapy and radiotherapy.

Conclusion: Radiation use offered a therapeutic advantage for all patients with T1–T2 breast cancer.

Are mastectomy resection margins of clinical relevance? A systematic review

Although some guidelines support the use of post-mastectomy radiotherapy where the resection margin is involved or close, the scientific basis of this practice is not established. This systematic review explores the relationship between margin status and subsequent relapse. Pooled data from 22 studies (18,863 women) identified an involved post-mastectomy margin in 2.5%, a close margin in 8.0% and muscle or fascia invasion in 7.2% of patients. In a meta-analysis of five studies of non-inflammatory breast cancer without radiotherapy, local recurrence was increased by an involved or close margin (relative risk 2.6; P<0.00001). The effect of muscle or fascia invasion was of borderline significance (relative risk 1.7; P=0.04). In two separate meta-analyses, risk of relapse was related to margin status in women with inflammatory breast cancer (relative risk 3.1; P<0.0001) but not in those undergoing skin-sparing mastectomy (relative risk 2.1; P=0.16).

Prospective multicenter comparison of models to predict four or more involved axillary lymph nodes in patients with breast cancer with one to three metastatic sentinel lymph nodes

PURPOSE

Three models have been developed to predict four or more involved axillary lymph nodes (ALNs) in patients with breast cancer with one to three involved sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs). Two scores were developed by Chagpar et al (Louisville scores excluding or including method of detection), and a nomogram was developed by Katz et al. The purpose of our investigation was to compare these models in a prospective, multicenter study.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Our study involved a cohort of 536 patients having one to three involved SLNs who underwent ALN dissection. We evaluated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration (for the Katz nomogram only), false-negative (FN) rate, and clinical utility of the three models. Results were compared with the optimal logistic regression (OLR) model that was developed from the validation cohort.

RESULTS

Among the 536 patients, 57 patients (10.6%) had > or = four involved ALNs. The AUC for the Katz nomogram was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.81 to 0.86). The Louisville score excluding method of detection was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.78). The Louisville score including method of detection was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.79). The FN rates were 2.5% (eight of 321 patients), 1.8% (two of 109 patients), and 0% (zero of 27 patients) for the Katz nomogram and the Louisville scores excluding and including method of detection, respectively. The Katz nomogram was well calibrated. Optimism-corrected bootstrap estimate AUC of the OLR model was 0.86. Using this result as a reasonable target for an external model, the performance of the Katz nomogram was remarkable.

CONCLUSION

We validated the three models for their use in clinical practice. The Katz nomogram outperformed the two other models.

Prognostic factors and evaluation of a clinical score for predicting survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

Patient outcome after resection of colorectal liver metastases can be predicted by various prognostic factors.

AIMS

Development of a model for risk stratification based on analysis of prognostic factors.

METHODS

Data of 201 patients were collected prospectively and included in a single-centre trial. A total of 20 factors were analysed as to their influence on recurrence-free and overall survival. Independent prognostic factors were entered into a model of a clinical risk score.

RESULTS

Median recurrence-free survival reached 24 months for all patients; median overall survival was 50 months. Only a synchronous manifestation of primary colorectal carcinoma and liver metastases, the presence of four or more metastases and a carcino-embryonic antigen level of 200 ng/ml or more significantly influenced recurrence-free and overall survival in the multivariate analysis. The derived risk stratification grouped the patients according to the following criteria: low risk, zero prognostic factors (n=112); intermediate risk, one factor (n=74); high risk, two or more factors (n=15). The median recurrence-free survival for low, intermediate and high risk were 30.0, 23.0 and 11.0 months, respectively; the median overall survival was 94.0, 40.0 and 33.0 months. Compared with the low-risk group, patients with intermediate risk demonstrated an increased hazard ratio (HR) of 1.57-fold for recurrence (P=0.018) and 1.91-fold for mortality (P=0.007). For the high-risk group, the HR rose significantly to 3.26 for recurrence (P<0.0005) and to 3.10 for mortality (P=0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The presented clinical score may allow for patients with colorectal liver metastases to be stratified appropriately and for optimization of their subsequent therapeutic management.

Locoregional recurrence in breast carcinoma patients

AIMS

To assess the risk of locoregional recurrence (LRR) after mastectomy and to identify predictive and treatment factors that affect the risk of LRR.

METHODS

The primary endpoint was local recurrence. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were carried out in the data from 1217 patients.

RESULTS

The median follow-up was 74 months, and 63 (5.2%) patients experienced a LRR in their follow-up period. In the multivariate analysis, age group (< or =35 years vs. >35 years, p<0.0001; Hazard Ratio [HR], 5.0; 95% Confidence Interval [95% CI], 3.0-8.3), tumour size (>2 cm vs. < or =2 cm, p=0.03; HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.7) and LVI (yes vs. no, p<0.0001; HR, 3.2; 95% CI,1.9-5.2) were the independent prognostic factors for LRR. This analysis, in the final model, indicated that adjuvant radiotherapy and adjuvant tamoxifen were associated with a reduced risk of LRR by 90% and 75%, respectively, across the follow-up period, whereas age group remained as an important risk factor (p=0.002; HR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.5-6.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Although adjuvant therapies reduce the risk of LRR, young age is an independent risk factor for LRR.

Prediction model for estimating the survival benefit of adjuvant radiotherapy for gallbladder cancer

PURPOSE

The benefit of adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) for gallbladder cancer remains controversial because most published data are from small, single-institution studies. The purpose of this study was to construct a survival prediction model to enable individualized predictions of the net survival benefit of adjuvant RT for gallbladder cancer patients based on specific tumor and patient characteristics.

METHODS

A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was constructed using data from 4,180 patients with resected gallbladder cancer diagnosed from 1988 to 2003 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Patient and tumor characteristics were included as covariates and assessed for association with overall survival (OS) with and without adjuvant RT. The model was internally validated for discrimination and calibration using bootstrap resampling.

RESULTS

On multivariate regression analysis, the model showed that age, sex, papillary histology, stage, and adjuvant RT were significant predictors of OS. The survival prediction model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination, with a bootstrap-corrected concordance index of 0.71. The model predicts that adjuvant RT provides a survival benefit in node-positive or >or= T2 disease. A nomogram and a browser-based software tool were built from the model that can calculate individualized estimates of predicted net survival gain attributable to adjuvant RT, given specific input parameters.

CONCLUSION

In the absence of large, prospective, randomized, clinical trial data, a regression model can be used to make individualized predictions of the expected survival improvement from the addition of adjuvant RT after gallbladder cancer resection.

Gene expression profiling in primary breast cancer distinguishes patients developing local recurrence after breast-conservation surgery, with or without postoperative radiotherapy

Introduction

Some patients with breast cancer develop local recurrence after breast-conservation surgery despite postoperative radiotherapy, whereas others remain free of local recurrence even in the absence of radiotherapy. As clinical parameters are insufficient for identifying these two groups of patients, we investigated whether gene expression profiling would add further information.

Methods

We performed gene expression analysis (oligonucleotide arrays, 26,824 reporters) on 143 patients with lymph node-negative disease and tumor-free margins. A support vector machine was employed to build classifiers using leave-one-out cross-validation.

Results

Within the estrogen receptor-positive (ER⁺) subgroup, the gene expression profile clearly distinguished patients with local recurrence after radiotherapy (n = 20) from those without local recurrence (n = 80 with or without radiotherapy). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area was 0.91, and 5,237 of 26,824 reporters had a P value of less than 0.001 (false discovery rate = 0.005). This gene expression profile provides substantially added value to conventional clinical markers (for example, age, histological grade, and tumor size) in predicting local recurrence despite radiotherapy. Within the ER^- subgroup, a weaker, but still significant, signal was found (ROC area = 0.74). The ROC area for distinguishing patients who develop local recurrence from those who remain local recurrence-free in the absence of radiotherapy was 0.66 (combined ER⁺/ER^-).

Conclusion

A highly distinct gene expression profile for patients developing local recurrence after breast-conservation surgery despite radiotherapy has been identified. If verified in further studies, this profile might be a most important tool in the decision making for surgery and adjuvant therapy.

Risk factor stratification after simultaneous liver and colorectal resection for synchronous colorectal metastasis

BACKGROUND/AIM

This study was conducted to devise a prognostic model for patients undergoing simultaneous liver and colorectal resection.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed on 138 colorectal patients who underwent simultaneous liver and colorectal resection between September 1994 and September 2005. The primary endpoint of the study was overall survival. Three patients with positive liver resection margin were excluded from the analysis.

RESULTS

At multivariate level, poor prognostic factors were liver resection margin < or =5 mm (P = 0.047; relative risk, 1.684; 95% CI = 1.010-2.809), CEA greater than 5 ng/ml (P = <0.001; relative risk, 2.507; 95% CI = 1.499-4.194), number of liver metastasis > 1 (P = <0.042; relative risk, 1.687; 95% CI = 1.020-2.789), and lymph node > or = 4 (P = <0.012; relative risk, 1.968; 95% CI = 1.158-3.347). The risk stratification grouping of the 135 patients was performed according to the following criteria: low risk group, 0-1 factor; intermediate risk group, 2 factors; high-risk group, 3-4 factors. Of 135 patients, 86 patients (63.0%) were categorized as low-risk group, 36 patients (26.6%) as intermediate risk group, and 14 patients (10.4%) as high-risk group. Median survival times for low, intermediate, high-risk groups were 68.0, 43.6 (95% CI, 24.7-62.4), and 23.5 months (95% CI, 9.4-31.5), respectively. The high-risk group demonstrated an approximately threefold (relative risk, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.6-6.0) increased risk of death.

CONCLUSIONS

A simple risk factor stratification system was proposed to evaluate the chances of cure of patients after simultaneous resection of liver metastases and primary colorectal carcinoma. The risk factor stratification showed three groups with distinct survival. The risk stratification may help to predict patient survival after simultaneous liver and colorectal resection. This system needs further prospective validation.

Criteria for Optimizing Prognostic Risk Groups in Pediatric Cancer: Analysis of Data From the Children's Oncology Group

Purpose

Physicians who treat cancer often attempt to identify patient subgroups that are homogeneous in their chance of recurrence or death as a way to target the more toxic and presumably more effective treatments to patients with the worst prognosis. However, to date, prognosis-based treatment assignment in pediatric cancer has not been based on a quantitative assessment of the risks and benefits of different treatment strategies or on morbidity and efficacy outcome measures that are relevant to children.

Methods

We performed a quantitative analysis of the risks and benefits of prognosis-based treatment assignment in two examples from the Children's Oncology Group using a mathematical model of cancer cure and permanent treatment morbidity and defined an optimality criterion for assigning treatments to specific risk groups.

Results

In stage 4 MYCN-unamplified neuroblastoma, age-based risk grouping distinguishes clearly between patients with high and low risk of recurrence. However, our analysis suggests that the optimal age cut point depends profoundly on the morbidity of the treatments being considered and agrees with current published recommendations only for treatments that add significant morbidity. In Hodgkin's lymphoma, under our model, no clearly optimal risk groupings exist, and a compelling quantitative rationale for defining risks group at all may not exist.

Conclusion

Our analysis illustrates the inadequacy of naïve application of statistical criteria for defining prognostic risk groups in pediatric cancer and highlights the importance of quantifying treatment morbidity when defining risk groups or when deciding whether risk grouping is warranted.

Prognostic model to predict survival following first-line chemotherapy in patients with metastatic gastric adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

This study was to devise a prognostic model for metastatic gastric cancer patients undergoing first-line chemotherapy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis was carried out on 1455 gastric cancer patients, who received first-line chemotherapy from September 1994 to February 2005.

RESULTS

At multivariate level, poor prognostic factors were no previous gastrectomy [P = 0.003; relative risk (RR), 1.191; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.061-1.338], albumin < 3.6 g/dl (P = or <0.001; RR, 1.245; 95% CI 1.106-1.402), alkaline phosphatase > 85 U/l (P = or <0.001; RR, 1.224; 95% CI 1.092-1.371), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of two or more (P = or <0.001; RR, 1.690; 95% CI 1.458-1.959), the presence of bone metastases (P = 0.001; RR, 1.460; 95% CI 1.616-1.836), and the presence of ascites (P = or < 0.001; RR, 1.452; 95% CI 1.295-1.628). Of 1434 patients, 489 patients (34.1%) were categorized as low-risk group (zero to one factors), 889 patients (62.0%) as intermediate-risk group (two to four factors), and 56 patients (3.9%) as high-risk group (five to six factors). Median survival durations for low, intermediate, and high-risk groups were 12.5 months, 7.0 months, and 2.7 months, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This model should facilitate the individual patient risk stratification and thus, more appropriate therapies for each metastatic gastric cancer patient.