Pancreaticojejunostomy with double-layer continuous suturing is associated with a lower risk of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy: a comparative study. Int J Surg. 2015;13:84-89. [PMID: 25481836 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijsu.2014.11.034]

Comparison of surgical outcomes between single-layer and double-layer pancreaticojejunostomy after pancreaticoduodenectomy: a meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is the most severe complication after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), and this study investigates the effects of single-layer and double-layer pancreaticojejunostomy (PJ) on POPF.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

Four electronic databases were systematically searched until March 2024: PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Library. Statistical analysis was performed using Review Manager (RevMan) software. Mean difference (MD) or odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to indicate continuous or dichotomous variables, respectively. Ten studies were included, comprising 1811 patients.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Compared to the double-layer PJ group, the single-layer PJ group had a similar POPF rate (OR=0.73; P=0.28) and grade C POPF rate (OR=0.55; P=0.12), but a lower grade B POPF rate (OR=0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.81; P=0.005). The clinically relevant POPF (CR-POPF) rate was lower in the single-layer PJ group (OR=0.47; 95% CI: 0.31-0.73; P<0.001), especially in the 2017 International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) criteria subgroup (OR=0.44; 95% CI: 0.27-0.73; P=0.001), the China subgroup (OR=0.41; 95% CI: 0.26-0.64; P<0.001), and the minimally invasive subgroup (OR=0.40; 95% CI: 0.22-0.74; P=0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with double-layer PJ, single-layer PJ after PD might reduce the incidence of CR-POPF.

Nomogram predicts CR-POPF in open central pancreatectomy patients with benign or low-grade malignant pancreatic neoplasms

Introduction

Central pancreatectomy (CP) is a standard surgical procedure for benign and low-grade malignant pancreatic neoplasms in the body and neck of the pancreas. Higher incidence of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after CP than after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) or distal pancreatectomy (DP) has been reported, but no nomogram for prediction of CR-POPF after open CP has been previously established.

Methods

Patients undergoing open CP for benign or low-grade malignant pancreatic neoplasms in the department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic (HBP) surgery of Shanghai Changhai Hospital affiliated to Naval Medical University between January 01, 2009 and December 31,2020 were enrolled. Pre-, intra- and post-operative parameters were analyzed retrospectively.

Results

A total of 194 patients, including 60 men and 134 women, were enrolled with median age of 52 years (21~85 years). 84 patients (43.3%) were overweight (BMI>23.0 Kg/m2) and 14 (7.2%) were obese (BMI>28.0 Kg/m2). Pathological diagnoses ranged from serous cystic neoplasm (32.5%), solid pseudopapillary neoplasm (22.2%), pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (20.1%), intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (18.0%) to mucinous cystic neoplasm (5.2%). All patients had soft pancreatic texture. Main pancreatic duct diameters were ≤0.3cm for 158 patients (81.4%) and were ≥0.5cm in only 12 patients (6.2%). A stapler (57.7%) or hand-sewn closure (42.3%) were used to close the pancreatic remnant. The pancreatic anastomosis techniques used were duct to mucosa pancreaticojejunostomy (PJ)-interrupted suture (47.4%), duct to mucosa PJ-continuous suture (43.3%), duct to mucosa "HO" half-purse binding PJ (5.2%) and invaginating pancreaticogastrostomy (4.1%). Post-surgical incidences of CR-POPF of 45.9%, surgical site infection of 28.9%, postpancreatectomy hemorrhage of 7.7% and delayed gastric emptying of 2.1% were found. Obesity and pancreatic anastomosis technique were independent risk factors of CR-POPF, with a concordance index of 0.675 and an Area Under the Curve of 0.678.

Discussion

This novel nomogram constructed according to obesity and pancreatic anastomosis technique showed moderate predictive performance of CR-POPF after open CP.

Incidence of bifid pancreatic duct in pancreaticoduodenectomy and its impact on clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula

Objectives

This study aimed to examine the incidence of bifid pancreatic duct (BPD) in pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) and clarify its impact on clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF).

Background

Until now, all the literature about BPD during PD are published as case reports, and the incidence of BPD in PD and its impact on CR-POPF remain unknown.

Results

A total of 438 consecutive PDs were divided into two groups: the former year group and the latter year group. The former year group included 215 consecutive PDs, while the latter year group included 223. In the latter year group, we found 16 BPDs during PD (O-BPD); the incidence of O-BPD is 7.17%. Of them, there were eight patients who had BPD in the preoperative imaging (I-BPD). All the I-BPDs are O-BPDs; which means that 50% of O-BPDs were a single pancreatic duct in the preoperative imaging (I-SPD). There were 17 I-BPDs in the 438 consecutive PDs; the incidence of I-BPD is 3.88%. In the former year group, the rate of severe complications of I-BPD and I-SPD is 77.78% and 27.18%, respectively (p = 0.003); the rate of CR-POPF of I-BPD is higher than I-SPD, 55.56% vs. 27.18%, but there were no statistically significant differences. In the latter year group, the rate of severe complications of O-BPD and O-SPD is 50% and 18.36%, and the rate of CR-POPF of O-BPD and O-SPD is 37.5% and 22.22%, respectively; both of them have statistically significant differences, and the p-value is 0.003 and 0.006, respectively. In the subgroup analysis, both the rate of severe complications and the rate of CR-POPF of I-BPD were higher than O-BPD, 77.78% vs. 50%, and 55.56% vs. 37.5%, but there were no statistically significant differences in both of them; the p-value is 0.174 and 0.434, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that BPD was an independent risk factor of CR-POPF.

Conclusions

The incidence of O-BPD in PD is 7.17%, 50% of O-BPDs were I-SPD, and the incidence of I-BPD is 3.88%. BPD is an independent risk factor of CR-POPF. The suture closure method may be a simple, safe, and effective method in dealing with BPD in PD.

Clinical application of pancreatic-duct-jejunum end-to-side continuous suture anastomosis in total laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

To present a new pancreaticojejunostomy technique for laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy (LPD) and to evaluate its safety and reliability.

METHODS

The data of 120 patients who underwent LPD at a single centre from October 2017 to October 2019 were retrospectively analysed. Of these patients, 71 received continuous suture pancreaticojejunostomy, and 49 received "8-character" suture pancreaticojejunostomy for LPD. We compared and analysed the operation time, anastomosis time, and incidence of postoperative complications between the patients in the two groups.

RESULTS

All operations were successfully performed, with no transfer to open surgery. The operation time and anastomosis time in the continuous suture group were lower than those in the "8-character" suture group (305.8 ± 60.7 min vs. 354.3 ± 69.1 min; 28.6 ± 6.3 min vs. 39.4 ± 11.9 min P < 0.001), and the postoperative hospital stay was also shorter (12.9 ± 3.8 days vs. 15.4 ± 5.8 days P < 0.05) in the continuous suture group. There was no significant difference in the pancreatic duct diameter or intraoperative blood loss between the two groups. There was also no significant difference in the incidence of a pancreatic fistula between the continuous suture group and the "8-character" suture group. The data of patients in the continuous suture group with pancreatic duct diameters < 3 mm and ≥ 3 mm were statistically analysed. There was no significant difference in the operation time, pancreaticojejunostomy time, postoperative hospital stay, or incidence of pancreatic fistula in the different pancreatic duct diameter groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Continuous suture of pancreaticojejunostomy in LPD is simple, safe, reliable, and rapid. This technique not only saves the anastomosis time but also suitable for pancreatic ducts < 3 mm.

Contemporary Surgical, Oncological, and Survival Outcomes of Pancreaticoduodenectomy for Periampullary Tumours: a 5-Year Experience from Tertiary Cancer Center

With advances in surgical management of pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), mortality rate for PD has been reported to be less than 5%. Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) remains a major complication and morbidity after PD with incidence of up to 40%. This is a retrospective analysis of patients who underwent PD in a tertiary cancer referral center in southern India. Data was collected for the patients operated during the period from Jan 2014 to Dec 2018. Surgicopathological, oncological, and survival outcomes were described. Of 76 patients presumed as operable, 16 were excluded and data analyzed for 60 patients. Forty-four percent underwent classical Whipple's PD and 56% pylorus-preserving PD. The most common postoperative complications were wound infection (25%); pneumonia (20%); clinically relevant POPF (13%); and delayed gastric emptying (19%). Thirty-day in-hospital mortality was 5%, 90-day mortality was 8.3%, and fistula-related mortality was 1.6%. Ampullary cancer was the most common histology. Three-year survival rate was 23.3% with a mean overall survival of 33.2 months with significantly better survival in the node negative than positive group (41.3 vs 20.5 months, P = 0.003) and significantly lower survival in pancreatic head cancer than other tumor histologies (16.6 vs 37.3 months, P = 0.002). Multivariate analysis has shown pancreatic head histology (HR = 2.38, 95% CI (1.08-5.26), P = 0.033) and nodal positivity (HR = 2.38, 95% CI (1.27-4.44), P = 0.007) as poor prognostic factors. Pancreaticoduodenectomy is a safe operation in experienced hands. Adhering to a meticulous adaptable reproducible anastomotic technique with standard perioperative management strategies significantly decreases the operative morbidity and mortality.

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma: A review of recent paradigms and advances in epidemiology, clinical diagnosis and management

Pancreatic cancer is one of the dreaded malignancies for both the patient and the clinician. The five-year survival rate of pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDA) is as low as 2% despite multimodality treatment even in the best hands. As per the Global Cancer Observatory of the International Agency for Research in Cancer estimates of pancreatic cancer, by 2040, a 61.7% increase is expected in the total number of cases globally. With the widespread availability of next-generation sequencing, the entire genome of the tumors is being sequenced regularly, providing insight into their pathogenesis. As invasive PDA arises from pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia and mucinous neoplasm and intraductal papillary neoplasm, screening for them can be beneficial as the disease is curable with resection at an early stage. Routine preoperative biliary drainage has no role in patients suffering from PDA with obstructive jaundice. If performed, metallic stents are preferred over plastic ones. Minimally invasive procedures are preferred to open procedures as they have less morbidity. The duct-to-mucosa technique for pancreaticojejunostomy is presently widely practiced. The role of intraperitoneal drains after surgery for PDA is controversial. Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy has been proven to have a significant role both in locally advanced as well as in resectable PDA. Many new regimens and drugs have been added in the arsenal of chemoradiotherapy for metastatic disease. The roles of immunotherapy and gene therapy in PDA are being investigated. This review article is intended to improve the understanding of the readers with respect to the latest updates of PDA, which may help to trigger new research ideas and make better management decisions.

Clinical Application of a Modified Double Purse-String Continuous Suture Technique for Pancreaticojejunostomy: Reliable for Laparoscopic Surgery and Small Size Main Pancreatic Duct

Background

The technical challenge of pancreatojejunostomy (PJ) is the greatest barrier for surgeons to complete pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). The authors present an easy-to-master PJ anastomosis technique with limited technical requirements. This technique uses two layers of sutures and double purse-string sutures to complete the entire anastomosis. This anastomosis technique has achieved good results in laparoscopic surgery (LS) and small size main pancreatic duct (MPD).

Methods

From February 2015 to August 2020, 63 patients who met the surgical indications underwent a modified double purse-string continuous suture pancreaticojejunostomy technique in our center. We collected patient demographic characteristics and perioperative outcomes and analyzed these data.

Results

A total of 63 patients underwent PD using our new anastomosis technique. Thirty-eight patients underwent LS, and 26 patients had a small MPD (<3 mm). The median operative time (OT) was 270 min, and the median estimated blood loss (EBL) was 200 ml. Ten patients had grade B postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF), while no patients had grade C POPF. No 90-day mortality was observed. There were significant differences in the OT and postoperative hospital stay (PHS) among groups with different surgical procedures, while there were no significant differences among groups with different MPD sizes. Neither the surgical procedure nor the MPD size affected early postoperative complications.

Conclusion

This new technique can not only reduce the incidence of POPF but also is reliable for LS and surgeries with small size MPD. Therefore, this technique is worthy of clinical promotion and application in the future.

Pancreaticojejunostomy-a review of modern techniques

Background

Pancreaticojejunal anastomosis is one of the most demanding procedures in surgery. Up to now, no technique has been proven to reduce the incidence of POPF when compared to the other methods.

Purpose

The aim of this review was to provide a concise and illustrated description of the most recent methods of pancreaticojejunostomy. Their development was directly related to the still ongoing search by surgeons for such a technique of anastomosis that would eliminate the problem of POPF.

Conclusions

Knowledge of various techniques of anastomosis may help the surgeon to find the most suitable and optimal method of pancreatic-intestinal anastomosis for the patient.

A New Feasible Technique for Polytetrafluoroethylene Suture Buttress-Reinforced Pancreaticojejunostomy (PBRP): Mechanical Analysis and a Prospective, Randomized Controlled Trial

OBJECTIVES

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a major concern after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). We recently designed a new anastomotic method to reduce the rate of pancreatic fistula: polytetrafluoroethylene suture buttress-reinforced pancreaticojejunostomy (PBRP).

METHODS

An animal model and a computer simulation were used to measure the maximum stress and tensile strength of the pancreas with and without the suture buttresses. Then, a randomized controlled trial (RCT) was performed to compare the outcome of PD between patients who underwent PBRP vs traditional pancreaticojejunostomy (TP).

RESULTS

The maximum load in the animal model was significantly higher with the suture buttresses than without (5.47 ± 1.67 N vs 3.72 ± 1.36 N, p < 0.01), and in the computer simulation, the peak stress was lower with the suture buttresses than without (54.86 vs 486.8 MPa). There were no significant differences between the two groups in the overall frequency of POPF, but the rate of clinically relevant POPF was significantly lower in the PBRP group (2.8 vs 22.8%, p = 0.028). The pancreaticojejunostomy time was significantly longer in the PBRP group (19.57 ± 3.31 vs 17.17 ± 4.83 min, p = 0.018), and the PBRP group showed a shorter drainage tube retention duration (10 vs 12 days, p = 0.006) and postoperative hospital stay (13 d vs 15 d, p = 0.031).

CONCLUSIONS

PBRP is a feasible and reliable procedure for preventing clinically relevant POPF. Additional multi-institution randomized trials should be conducted to confirm these results.

WITHDRAWN: A personal technical experience and results of a modified end-to-side technique of pancreatojejunostomy: A 350 patients retrospective cohort study

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A novel technique of pancreaticojejunostomy for laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

Pancreaticojejunostomy (PJ) reconstruction is the Achilles' heel of laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy (LPD). However, only a few studies have focused on the performance of this difficult procedure laparoscopically.

METHODS

We present a safe and feasible technique of duct-to-mucosa pancreaticojejunostomy for LPD, named Bing's anastomosis. Our study included 238 cases of LPDs that underwent Bing's anastomosis. Data on the demographic characteristics, operative outcomes (total operative time, PJ duration, and estimated blood loss), and postoperative results (length of hospital stay, recovery of bowel function, and rates of postoperative morbidity and mortality) of the cases were prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed.

RESULTS

Only one patient (0.4%) in our series required conversion to open surgery as a result of uncontrolled bleeding from the superior mesenteric artery. The average operative time was 358 min (220 min to 495 min). The mean duration for PJ was 23 min (19 min to 33 min). The mean estimated blood loss was 112 ml (50 ml to 800 ml). The overall incidence of pancreatic fistula was 21.4% and included 42 cases (17.6%) of biochemical leak, eight cases (3.4%) of Grade B, and one case (0.4%) of Grade C pancreatic fistulas. The 90-day mortality was 0.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

Bing's anastomosis is a safe, reliable, and rapid PJ technique for LPD that is associated with favorable outcomes and a low risk of pancreatic fistula. However, its safety and feasibility should be verified by performing prospective randomized controlled trials at different institutions.

Technical Details and Results of a Modified End-to-Side Technique of Pancreatojejunostomy: a Personal Series of 100 Patients

BACKGROUND

The treatment of pancreatic stump is a critical step of pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) because leaks from this anastomosis incur major morbidity and mortality. We describe the technical details of a modified end-to-side pancreatojejunostomy (mPJ), and report on the outcome of the first 100 patients.

METHODS

From October 2008 to June 2017, 424 pancreatic resections were performed, of which 203 were PD. The mPJ was introduced in November 2010 and used in 100 consecutive patients, by a single surgeon. Data were retrieved from a prospectively collected Institutional database, and used for the present retrospective evaluation. Post-operative pancreatic fistulas (POPF) were stratified with the Fistula Risk Score (FRS), based on the 2005-International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula classification (ISGPFc) and on the subsequent 2016-revised version (ISGPSc).

RESULTS

ISGPFc POPF occurred in 17/100 (17%): grade A in 10/100 (10%), grade B in 6/100 (6%) and grade C in 1/100 (1%). On the ISGPSc, POPF rate averaged 7%: grade B in 6/100 (6%) and grade C in 1/100 (1%). POPF rate associated with high FRS was 18.8%/6.3% (ISGPFc/ISGPSc). With low and intermediate FRS, POPFs were 5.3%/0% (ISGPFc/ISGPSc) and 21.3%/9.8% (ISGPFc/ISGPSc) respectively. Re-operation rate was 3%. In-hospital mortality rate was 2% and specific mortality rate for POPF was 1%.

CONCLUSIONS

The mPJ technique is associated with a POPF rate which was less than expected, especially for "difficult" pancreas with high FRS (soft gland texture and small duct). A larger prospective series is needed in addition to comparative studies with other techniques for robust assessment.

Different types of pancreatico-enteric anastomosis

The pancreatico-enteric anastomosis has widely been regarded as the 'Achilles heel' of the modern day, single-stage, pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). A review of the literature was carried out to address the evolution of the pancreatico-enteric anastomosis following PD, the spectrum of anastomoses performed around the world, and finally present the current evidence in support of each anastomosis. Pancreaticogastrostomy (PG) and pancreaticojejunostomy (PJ) are the most common forms of pancreatico-enteric reconstruction following PD. There is no difference in postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) rates between PG and PJ, as well as individual variations, except in a high-risk anastomosis where performance of a PJ may be preferred. The routine use of glue, trans-anastomotic stents or omental wrapping is of no proven benefit. Externalised trans-anastomotic stents may have a role in mitigating the risk of a clinically relevant POPF in high-risk anastomoses. Pancreatico-enteric anastomosis is an important component of reconstruction following PD even though it is fraught with the risk of development of a POPF. Adherence to the tenets of anastomotic reconstruction and performance of a safe and reproducible anastomosis with a low clinically-relevant POPF rate remain the mainstay of achieving the best outcomes. Appropriate selection and opportune use of fistula mitigation strategies may help provide optimal outcomes when faced with the need to perform a high-risk pancreatico-enteric anastomosis.

Modified protocol for enhanced recovery after surgery is beneficial for Chinese cancer patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy

Radical surgical resection remains the only effective treatment for advanced pancreatic cancer. Effective protocols for recovery from post-operative complications that result in high rates of morbidity and mortality are therefore essential. The enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) protocol is an interdisciplinary multimodal concept based on modern anesthesia and analgesia combined with other fast rehabilitation parameters. It was first applied in the field of elective colorectal surgery, and eventually extended to several surgical diseases. In this study, we investigated the feasibility and safety of implementing the ERAS protocol in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). We randomly divided 159 patients who underwent PD into two groups who were managed using either ERAS or the conventional protocol. We observed that in those treated with the ERAS protocol several post-operative recovery factors were greatly improved, and there were no complications requiring readmission. We therefore propose that ERAS can improve post-operative recovery of PD patients and shorten the waiting time to chemotherapy, which may improve the overall survival of surgically treated pancreatic cancer patients.

Three hundred and sixty-eight consecutive pancreaticoduodenectomies with zero mortality

BACKGROUND

Only a limited number of reports have documented zero mortality in consecutive pancreaticoduodenectomy series. The aim of this study is to review and verify our management aiming to eliminate mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy.

METHODS

Three hundred and sixty-eight consecutive patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy between 2002 and 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. During this period, in order to enhance the safety of pancreaticoduodenectomy, we have used a consistent strategy consisting of early ligation of the inferior pancreatoduodenal artery, mucosal sutureless pancreaticojejunostomy combined with external pancreatic duct stenting, conditional two-stage pancreaticojejunostomy, jejunal decompression using tube jejunostomy, application of an omental flap to cover the stump of the gastroduodenal artery, and careful postoperative drain management.

RESULTS

Major postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ IIIa) occurred in 20 patients (5%). Grade A/B/C pancreatic fistula was observed in 49/29/4 patients (13%/8%/1%), respectively. Reoperation and readmission was necessary in five and four patients (1% and 1%), respectively. There was no in-hospital or 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

To achieve zero mortality in pancreaticoduodenectomy, it is crucial to incorporate various strategies to minimize the degree of surgical invasiveness and the damage caused by pancreatic fistula with a meticulous approach to perioperative management.

Risk scoring system and predictor for clinically relevant pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

AIM: To establish a scoring system to predict clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).

METHODS: The clinical records of 921 consecutive patients who underwent PD between 2008 and 2013 were reviewed retrospectively. Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) was defined and classified by the international study group of pancreatic fistula (ISGPF). We used a logistic regression model to determine the independent risk factors of CR-POPF and developed a scoring system based on the regression coefficient of the logistic regression model. The optimal cut-off value to divide the risk strata was determined by the Youden index. The patients were divided into two groups (low risk and high risk). The independent sample t test was used to detect differences in the means of drain amylase on postoperative day (POD) 1, 2 and 3. The optimal cut-off level of the drain amylase to distinguish CR-POPF from non-clinical POPF in the two risk strata groups was determined using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS: Grade A POPF occurred in 106 (11.5%) patients, grade B occurred in 57 (6.2%) patients, and grade C occurred in 32 (3.5%) patients. A predictive scoring system for CR-POPF (0-6 points) was constructed using the following four factors: 1 point for each body mass index ≥ 28 [odds ratio (OR) = 3.86; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.92-7.75, P = 0.00], soft gland texture (OR = 4.50; 95%CI, 2.53-7.98, P = 0.00), and the difference between the blood loss and transfusion in operation ≥ 800 mL (OR = 3.45; 95%CI, 1.92-7.75, P = 0.00); and from 0 points for a 5 mm or greater duct diameter to 3 points for a less than 2 mm duct (OR = 8.97; 95%CI: 3.70-21.77, P = 0.00). The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve of this score was 0.812. A score of 3 points was suggested to be the best cut-off value (Youden index = 0.485). In the low risk group, a drain amylase level ≥ 3600 U/L on POD3 could distinguish CR-POPF from non-clinical POPF (the sensitivity and specificity were 75% and 85%, respectively). In the high risk group, the best cut-off was a drain amylase level of 1600 (the sensitivity and specificity were 77 and 63%, respectively).

CONCLUSION: A 6-point scoring system accurately predicted the occurrence of CR-POPF. In addition, a drain amylase level on POD3 might be a predictor of this complication.