Prognostic nomogram for patients with non-B non-C hepatocellular carcinoma after curative liver resection

Comparative analysis of liver resection in Non-B Non-C and hepatitis virus-associated hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The incidence of non-hepatitis B and non-hepatitis C hepatocellular carcinoma (NBNC-HCC) is increasing in our country. This study assesses the feasibility of employing an identical surgical treatment strategy for resectable NBNC-HCC as that for hepatitis virus-associated HCC (HV-HCC).

METHODS

A retrospective analysis (1993-2023) of 1321 curative liver resections for HCC at a single institution was performed. Propensity score matching ensured a balanced comparison of preoperative clinical factors, including tumor status and background liver condition.

RESULTS

The proportion of NBNC-HCC cases has gradually increased, reaching up to 70 %. After matching, 294 of 473 NBNC-HCC patients and 294 of 848 HV-HCC patients were compared. Operative outcomes, including operation time, blood loss, type of surgical procedure, and morbidity, were comparable. Long-term outcome analysis showed similar recurrence-free survival (HR: 0.86, 95 % CI: 0.70-1.06, P = 0.167) and overall survival (HR: 0.98, 95 % CI: 0.79-1.23, P = 0.865) for NBNC-HCC. Multivariable analysis identified ICGR15 ≥ 15 %, ALBI grade 2 or 3, aspartate aminotransferase ≥40, tumor size > 5 cm, multiple tumors, macrovascular invasion, and microvascular invasion as independent prognostic factors for overall survival, while hepatitis B or C virus status lost significance.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the increasing incidence of NBNC-HCC, comparable outcomes were achieved between the two groups of matched cohort.

Monocyte-to-High-Density Lipoprotein-Cholesterol Ratio Predicts Prognosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Metabolic-Associated Fatty Liver Disease

Purpose

The incidence of non-B and non-C hepatocellular carcinoma (NBNC-HCC) is increasing globally. Metabolically associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) has been a contributing factor to this rising trend in NBNC-HCC incidence. The monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio (MHR) is a new prognostic marker that connects systemic inflammation with disorders of lipid metabolism. Therefore, MHR may be a potential prognostic predictor of patients with MAFLD-related HCC (MAFLD-HCC). This study aims to investigate the relationship between the MHR and prognosis of patients with MAFLD-HCC and construct a novel prognostic prediction tool for MAFLD-HCC.

Patients and Methods

This retrospective study of patients with MAFLD-HCC included training (n = 112) and internal validation (n = 37) cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was conducted to identify independent risk factors of survival. A visual nomogram was constructed to assess the performance of the two groups. Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves were used to verify the prognostic discriminative ability of this nomogram, even in the MHR, ALBI grade, and MHR-ALBI model.

Results

Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that extrahepatic metastases, Vascular invasion, Barcelona staging B, C, D, elevated ALBI Grade 3, C-reactive protein (CRP), and MHR were independent risk factors for the prognosis of MAFLD-HCC. Moreover, calibration plots showed good discrimination and consistency when the significant factors were entered into the nomogram. Meanwhile, the MHR strongly correlated with the prognosis of cancer under a background of MAFLD-HCC, with a sensitivity of 88.89% and a specificity of 79.61%. Importantly, the performance of the MHR alone (AUC = 86.2) was not only superior to the ALBI grade (AUC = 63.8) but was comparable to the combination of MHR and ALBI (AUC = 88.5).

Conclusion

The novel nomogram demonstrated good value in predicting the overall survival of patients with MAFLD-HCC. The MHR may be a potential predictor of prognosis.

Clinical characteristics, prognosis, and surgical outcomes of patients with non-HBV and non-HCV related hepatocellular carcinoma: three-decade observational study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of non-hepatitis B virus, non-hepatitis C virus hepatocellular carcinoma (non-B non-C-HCC) is increasing worldwide. We assessed the clinical characteristics and surgical outcomes of non-B non-C-HCC, versus hepatitis B (HBV-HCC) and hepatitis C (HCV-HCC).

METHODS

Etiologies, fibrosis stages, and survival outcomes were analyzed of 789 consecutive patients who underwent surgery from 1990 to 2020 (HBV-HCC, n = 149; HCV-HCC, n = 424; non-B non-C-HCC, n = 216).

RESULTS

The incidence of hypertension and diabetes mellitus was significantly higher in patients with NON-B NON-C-HCC than in those with HBV-HCC and HCV-HCC. Significantly more advanced tumor stages were observed in patients with non-B non-C-HCC; however, better liver function and lower fibrosis stages were observed. Patients with non-B non-C-HCC had significantly worse 5-year overall survival than patients with HBV-HCC; overall survival was comparable between patients with non-B non-C-HCC and HCV-HCC. Patients with HCV-HCC had significantly worse 5-year recurrence-free survival than patients with HBV-HCC and non-B non-C-HCC. In patients with non-B non-C-HCC, overall survival was comparable among three periods (1990-2000, 2001-2010, and 2011-2020) despite significant improvement in patients with HBV-HCC and HCV-HCC.

CONCLUSION

The prognosis of non-B non-C-HCC was similar to that of HBV-HCC and HCV-HCC regardless of tumor progression at surgery. Patients with hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia require careful systematic follow-up and treatment.

Influence of AFP on surgical outcomes in non-B non-C patients with curative resection for hepatocellular carcinoma

To study the clinical and prognostic features of non-B non-C alpha-fetoprotein (AFP)(-)-hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (NBNC-AFP(-)-HCC) and the relationship between the prognostic features of HCC and hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg) status and AFP. We enrolled 227 patients who underwent hepatic resection for HCC between January 1998 and December 2007 at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, all of whom were diagnosed with HCC by pathology. All patients were stratified into one of four groups (B-AFP(+)-HCC, B-AFP(-)-HCC, NBNC-AFP(+)-HCC, and NBNC-AFP(-)-HCC) according to AFP levels and HBsAg status. The clinicopathologic and survival characteristics of NBNC-AFP(-)-HCC patients were compared with those of all other three groups. Out of the 105 NBNC-HCC patients, 43 patients (40.9%) had AFP-negative HCC. There were some differences in factors between the B-AFP(+) and NBNC-AFP(-) patients, such as age, body mass index (BMI), diabetes, and ALT (P < 0.05). On univariate analysis, tumour size, secondary tumour, and portal invasion were prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) (P < 0.05). Cox multivariate regression analysis suggested that tumour size and tumour number (P < 0.05) were independent predictors. In addition, compared with the B-AFP(+)-HCC, B-AFP(-)-HCC, and NBNC-AFP(+)-HCC groups, the NBNC-AFP(-)-HCC patients had the best DFS (P < 0.05). Compared with the B-AFP(+)-HCC and NBNC-AFP(+)-HCC groups, the NBNC-AFP(-)-HCC patients had better OS (P < 0.05), and survival rates were similar to those of B-AFP(-)-HCC patients. NBNC-AFP(-)-HCC patients had a relatively favourable prognosis. It can serve as a useful marker in predicting the risk of tumour recurrence in the early stages.

Pre- and Postoperative Models for Prediction of Recurrence in Non-B, Non-C Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The incidence of non-B, non-C hepatocellular carcinoma (NBNC-HCC) is increasing. Like in hepatitis B virus (HBC)/HCV-associated HCC, treatment of NBNC-HCC after resection is challenging due to its high recurrence rate. However, few studies on the recurrence of NBNC-HCC have been published in the past decades. Hence, we aimed to investigate the risk factors for recurrence of NBNC-HCC and construct pre- and postoperative prognostic models for predicting recurrence in these patients who underwent curative resection.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 608 patients who underwent liver resection for NBNC-HCC. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was conducted to identify the independent risk factors of recurrence, based on which the prediction nomogram models were constructed and validated. The predictive performance of the models was assessed using the concordance index, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, prediction error cure, and calibration curve. To facilitate clinical use, we stratified the patients into three distinct risk groups based on the score of the models. The cutoff scores of the models were determined by a survival tree analysis.

RESULTS

Multivariable analysis identified neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, alpha fetoprotein, tumor number, and tumor diameter as independent preoperative risk factors for recurrence. In addition to these variables, microvascular invasion was an independent postoperative risk factor for recurrence. The pre- and postoperative nomograms were constructed based on these variables. The C-index of the pre- and postoperative nomograms was 0.689 and 0.702 in the training cohort, 0.682 and 0.688 in the validation cohort, respectively, which were both higher than those of the conventional Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) and 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC8th) staging systems. In addition, the pre- and postoperative nomograms could also re-stratify patients with BCLC stage 0/A or AJCC8th stage IA/IB/II into distinct risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

We constructed pre- and postoperative prognostic models for predicting recurrence in patients with NBNC-HCC who underwent curative resection. They can play a supplementary role to the traditional staging system.

A radiomics nomogram for the prediction of overall survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is associated with a dismal prognosis, and prediction of the prognosis of HCC can assist in therapeutic decision-makings. An increasing number of studies have shown that the texture parameters of images can reflect the heterogeneity of tumors, and may have the potential to predict the prognosis of patients with HCC after surgical resection. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of computed tomography (CT) texture parameters in patients with HCC after hepatectomy and to develop a radiomics nomogram by combining clinicopathological factors and the radiomics signature.

Methods

In all, 544 eligible patients were enrolled in this retrospective study and were randomly divided into the training cohort (n = 381) and the validation cohort (n = 163). The tumor regions of interest (ROIs) were delineated, and the corresponding texture parameters were extracted. The texture parameters were selected by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox model in the training cohort, and a radiomics signature was established. Then, the radiomics signature was further validated as an independent risk factor for overall survival (OS). The radiomics nomogram was established based on the Cox regression model. The concordance index (C-index), calibration plot and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the radiomics nomogram.

Results

The radiomics signature was formulated based on 7 OS-related texture parameters, which were selected in the training cohort. In addition, the radiomics nomogram was developed based on the following five variables: α-fetoprotein (AFP), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), largest tumor size, microvascular invasion (MVI) and radiomics score (Rad-score). The nomogram displayed good accuracy in predicting OS (C-index = 0.747) in the training cohort and was confirmed in the validation cohort (C-index = 0.777). The calibration plots also showed excellent agreement between the actual and predicted survival probabilities. The DCA indicated that the radiomics nomogram showed better clinical utility than the clinicopathologic nomogram.

Conclusion

The radiomics signature is a potential prognostic biomarker of HCC after hepatectomy. The radiomics nomogram that integrated the radiomics signature can provide a more accurate estimation of OS than the clinicopathologic nomogram for HCC patients after hepatectomy.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40644-020-00360-9.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram to Predict the Long-Time Prognosis in Non-B, Non-C Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PURPOSE

To develop and validate a nomogram for individualized prediction of the long-term prognosis of patients with non-B, non-C hepatocellular carcinoma (NBNC-HCC) who underwent hepatectomy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Five hundred ninety-four patients who met the criteria were included in the research and randomly categorized into the training or validation cohort. The nomogram was constructed on the basis of the independent risk variables that were acquired via multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. Several complementary methods included the Harrell c-index, time-dependent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (tdAUC), and calibration plot, and the Kaplan-Meier curve with Log rank test were used to test predictive performance of the model. The clinical utility of the model was tested by the decision cure analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Tumor diameter, tumor number, elevated serum gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) level, microvascular invasion (MVI), and macrovascular invasion were independent risk factors of prognosis of NBNC-HCC. C-indexes of the nomogram were 0.702 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.662-0.741) in the training cohort and 0.700 (95% CI, 0.643-0.758) in the validation cohort, and median tdAUC values of the nomogram were 0.743 (range, 0.736-0.775) in the training cohort and 0.751 (range, 0.686-0.793) in the validation cohort, which were both higher than those in the conventionally used Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system, American Joint Committee on Cancer, and eighth edition and the model of Zhang et al. The calibration plot depicted a good consistency between prediction of the model and observed outcome. The Kaplan-Meier curve analysis showed that the model was able to separate patients into three distinct risk subgroups. The DCA analysis also demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated a nomogram that was accurate and clinically useful in patients with NBNC-HCC who underwent hepatectomy.