Prediction of postoperative mortality and morbidity in octogenarians with gastric cancer - Comparison of P-POSSUM, O-POSSUM, and E-POSSUM: A retrospective single-center cohort study

Risk factors for serious postoperative complications following gastrectomy in super-elderly patients ≥85-years-old with gastric cancer: A National Clinical Database study in Japan

Aim

This study aimed to evaluate the technical safety and feasibility of gastrectomy for super-elderly patients ≥85-y-old with gastric cancer and to clarify the risk factors for serious postoperative complications in these patients.

Methods

Between 2017 and 2020, 10,203 patients who underwent distal gastrectomy (DG) and 2580 patients who underwent total gastrectomy (TG) were reviewed from the Japanese National Clinical Database. All possible preoperative factors were used to explore the risk factors for serious postoperative complications in the super-elderly patients with gastric cancer.

Results

For DG, the operative mortality rate was 1.6% (162 patients), and the rate of serious postoperative complications was 7.8% (796 patients). Similarly, the mortality rate was 2.6% (67 patients), and the rate of serious complications was 11.3% (292 patients) for TG. Based on multivariate analysis, body mass index (≥25 kg/m2), activities of daily living (ADL) (partially dependent), ASA-PS (Grade ≥3), dyspnea, ascites, history of cerebrovascular disease, serum albumin (<4 g/dL), and creatinine (>1.2 mg/dL) in DG, and ADL (partially dependent), ASA-PS (Grade ≥3), previous percutaneous coronary intervention, dialysis, WBC (>9000 μL), and AST (>35 IU/L) in TG were strong risk factors for serious postoperative complications.

Conclusions

The study findings suggest that gastrectomy for super-elderly gastric cancer patients is relatively safe and feasible. Surgeons need to pay special attention to physical status and past medical history than tumor factors for preventing serious postoperative complications in super-elderly gastric cancer patients.

Development and external validation of a nomogram predicting overall survival for Gastric adenocarcinoma patients with radical gastrectomy

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a nomogram to accurately predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with gastric adenocarcinoma who underwent radical gastrectomy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 3492 patients with gastric adenocarcinoma who underwent radical gastrectomy from 2012 to 2017 were included as the training cohort. Survival analysis was performed via Kaplan Meier method and log-rank test. Independent postoperative prognostic factors in patients with gastric adenocarcinoma were analyzed using univariate and multifactorial COX analysis methods. The prognosis nomogram was established in the training cohort and verified externally in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database.

RESULTS

According to the univariate and multifactorial COX analyses, metastatic lymph node ratio (MLNR) and five other independent prognostic factors (age at surgery, type of gastrectomy, tumor size, T stage, and pathological grade) were included in the prognostic nomogram. The nomogram had better prognostic predictive ability than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging in both the training (C-index: 0.736 VS. 0.668) and external validation cohort (C-index: 0.712 VS. 0.627). The calibration plots showed that the predicted survival rate was in good agreement with the actual survival rate. And the decision curve analysis (DCA) curves revealed that nomogram showed stronger ability in predicting 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS.

CONCLUSION

This study estimated the excellent prognostic predictive power and clinical application potential of the MLNR-based nomogram, which may be used to facilitate postoperative clinical treatment decisions and potentially improve patient survival outcomes.

Predictive value of POSSUM scoring system for postoperative complications and mortality in elderly patients with colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

The POSSUM scoring system, widely employed in assessing surgical risks, offers a simplified and objective approach for the prediction of complications and mortality in patient. Despite its effectiveness in various surgical fields, including orthopedics and cardiovascular surgery, yet its utilization in elderly patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery is infrequent.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the predictive value of POSSUM scoring system for postoperative complications and mortality in elderly with colorectal cancer.

METHODS

306 elderly colorectal cancer patients were grouped according to the complications and death within 30 days after surgery. Among them, 108 cases in complication group, 198 cases in non-complication group, 16 cases in death group and 290 cases in survival group. POSSUM scores of all subjects were obtained and its predictive value for postoperative complications and mortality of elderly was conducted by ROC curve.

RESULTS

No apparent difference were observed in complications and mortality among patients with different disease types, operation types and operation timing (P> 0.05). The R2 in complication group was higher than non-complication group (P< 0.05). The R1 in death group were higher than survival group (P< 0.05). The AUC of R2 for predicting postoperative complications was 0.955 with a sensitivity of 88.89% and a specificity of 94.44% and the AUC of R1 for evaluating postoperative mortality of elderly with colorectal cancer was 0.783 with a sensitivity of 56.25% and a specificity of 82.93%.

CONCLUSION

POSSUM score system has a certain predictive value for postoperative complications and mortality in elderly with colorectal cancer. However, the predicted mortality rate is higher than actual mortality rate.

Postoperative mortality and morbidity after D2 lymphadenectomy for gastric cancer: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Surgery for gastric cancer is a complex procedure and lymphadenectomy is often mandatory. Postoperative mortality and morbidity after curative gastric cancer surgery is not insignificant.

AIM

To evaluate the factors determining mortality and morbidity in a population of patients undergoing R0 resection and D2 lymphadenectomy for gastric cancer.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of clinical data and pathological characteristics (age, sex, primary site of the tumor, Lauren histotype, number of positive lymph nodes resected, number of negative lymph nodes resected, and depth of invasion as defined by the standard nomenclature) was conducted in patients with gastric cancer. For each patient we calculated the Kattan's score. We arbitrarily divided the study population of patients into two groups based on the nomogram score (< 100 points or ≥ 100 points). Prespecified subgroups in these analyses were defined according to age (≤ 65 years or > 65 years), and number of lymph nodes retrieved (≤ 35 lymph nodes or > 35 lymph nodes). Uni- and multivariate analysis of clinical and pathological findings were performed to identify the factors affecting postoperative mortality and morbidity.

RESULTS

One-hundred and eighty-six patients underwent a curative R0 resection with D2 lymphadenectomy. Perioperative mortality rate was 3.8% (7 patients); a higher mortality rate was observed in patients aged > 65 years (P = 0.002) and in N+ patients (P = 0.04). Following univariate analysis, mortality was related to a Kattan's score ≥ 100 points (P = 0.04) and the presence of advanced gastric cancer (P = 0.03). Morbidity rate was 21.0% (40 patients). Surgical complications were observed in 17 patients (9.1%). A higher incidence of morbidity was observed in patients where more than 35 lymph nodes were harvested (P = 0.0005).

CONCLUSION

Mortality and morbidity rate are higher in N+ and advanced gastric cancer patients. The removal of more than 35 lymph nodes does not lead to an increase in mortality.

Prognostic factors for elderly gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy

BACKGROUND

Patients with gastric cancer are aging in Japan. It is not clear which patients and which surgical procedures have survival benefits after gastrectomy. A multivariate analysis was performed.

METHODS

The medical records of 166 patients aged ≥ 80 years who underwent gastrectomy without macroscopic residual tumors were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses using Cox proportional hazard models were performed to detect prognostic factors for overall survival.

RESULTS

In univariate analyses, age (≥ 90 vs. ≥ 80, < 85), performance status (3 vs. 0), American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status (ASA-PS) (3, 4 vs. 1, 2), Onodera's prognostic nutritional index (< 40 vs. ≥ 45), the physiological score of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) (≥ 40 vs. ≥ 20, ≤ 29), surgical approach (laparoscopic vs. open), extent of gastrectomy (total, proximal vs. distal), extent of lymphadenectomy (D1 vs. ≥ D2), pathological stage (II-IV vs. I), and residual tumor (R1 vs. R0) were significantly correlated with worse overall survival. Multivariate analysis revealed that ASA-PS [3, 4 vs. 1, 2, hazard ratio (HR) 2.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24-4.24], extent of gastrectomy (total vs. distal, HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.10-4.31) (proximal vs. distal, HR 4.05, 95% CI 1.45-11.3), extent of lymphadenectomy (D0 vs. ≥ D2, HR 12.4, 95% CI 1.58-97.7), and pathological stage were independent risk factors for mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

ASA-PS was a useful predictor for postoperative mortality. Gastrectomy including cardia is best avoided.

Survival analyses of elderly gastric cancer patients with or without surgery

PURPOSE

Deciding whether or not surgery should be performed for elderly patients is sometimes difficult. This study examined the prognosis of patients ≥ 80 years old with gastric cancer who underwent surgery or not.

METHODS

The medical records of 111 patients who underwent surgery (surgery group) and 35 who received best supportive care (BSC group) were retrospectively reviewed, excluding those with clinical stage IVB disease, those with a performance status of 4, and those who underwent endoscopic submucosal dissection. The overall survival was compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

The patients in the BSC group were significantly older and had worse performance status scores, worse physiological scores, and lower prognostic nutritional indexes than those in the surgery group. The patients in the surgery group showed a significantly better survival than those in the BSC group (median survival time, 38.9 vs. 11.4 months; p = 0.01) even after propensity score matching. In the subgroups of patients ≥ 90 years old and those with a performance status of 3, no marked difference in the survival between the 2 groups was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Surgery imbued a survival benefit to elderly gastric cancer patients, except for those ≥ 90 years old and those with a performance status of ≥ 3. The surgical indication of patients ≥ 90 years old and those with a performance status of ≥ 3 requires careful deliberation.